The stock market

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Flatiowa

Line Up and Wait
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Flatiowa
Where is it going to go? I’m very bearish, I think it will keep dropping for some time (occasional rallies), but if or when more inflationary pressure starts hitting the bottom line budget of working america the easiest way for them to come up with some more money to cover the bills is stop their 401k contributions, and a lot less money will be going into the markets. Add in the baby boomer generation starting to cash out their 401ks, companies quarterly reports more likely than not showing reduced profits, and potentially increased numbers of people in the public and private sector loosing their jobs and cashing out.. I see falling prices until atleast fall of 2025. Any thoughts?
 
I tend to not think too much on it, except to keep investing in the funds in my portfolio and to review holdings and re-balance annually.

The S&P is still higher than it was as recently as two years ago. It may take a bit, but it’ll recover.

As for boomers dying off? Their holdings will pass on and get liquidated over following decade, and most of that will be plowed right back into the market.
 
Meh, going short may work temporarily, but there’s not a single point in history where it would’ve worked long term. This too shall pass. Use the opportunity to dollar cost average lower. You will be rewarded.
 
A year’s worth of gains wiped out in just a few trading days.

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And that screenshot was this morning, before today’s losses.
 
Half Fast said:
It works better to part them out. A single lung or kidney can often sell for more than the entire kid.
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Huh. Counterintuitive, that.

I wonder if there's an index or mutual fund that tracks the market value of kid parts.
Even for fun I'm not googling that on my phone though.
 
I don’t like being a doom and gloom, but I think tomorrow (4/8/2025) is going to end much lower than today across the board (possible exception for silver and gold, they should climb, but they likely too will be lower as leveraged investors must sell their holdings in them to cover margin calls). I really hope I’m wrong.
 
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Every time, it seems like the end of the world. Every time so far, its always come back stronger than ever within just a couple of years at most. If it ever doesn't (come back) it won't matter one bit, because we'll have much, much bigger problems than the size of our 401Ks.

Who I feel sorry for is all the retirees, or near retirees that will panic, cash out their retirement savings at huge losses only to find out that not only are their nest eggs much smaller now, but our elected leaders have so badly botched everything that now their Social Security and Medicare benefits are going to be less as well.
 
Seems like time to buy to me, like I've said every time there's been a downturn. I was always right in the end, but I never had any money I could risk... had a little bit to put in this time. So now that I'm in it's definitely going to completely fall off a cliff, sorry about that.
 
cowman said:
Seems like time to buy to me, like I've said every time there's been a downturn. I was always right in the end, but I never had any money I could risk... had a little bit to put in this time. So now that I'm in it's definitely going to completely fall off a cliff, sorry about that.
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Kind of sucks trying to figure out when to buy, or when you buy and then everything continues to tank. We are in the slump, load up, have cash for your ongoings, and wait for the profits to return. It’s a game, buy low and later sell it when it’s higher. Everything pretty much returns, at one point or another (and not all at the same time either), you just have to be patient, that’s what investing means.

Volatility does provide a way for profits, so we also have to respect these downturns as well, as they give us the channel for easy profits later on. See if you can find any leveraged index funds, these will bounce back nicely soon.
 
As humans, we have a much higher fear of losing what we have than we have the desire for gain. That's why we see these crashes. People panic and head for the exits because holy cow, I could "lose even more". It always corrects. Literally always. Never in the history it did not correct. It will correct again this time. How long, who knows. If it doesn't correct, and someone already mentioned it, we have bigger problems so who cares what the stock market is doing at that point. I don't think we have bigger problems though, so it'll correct eventually. Until then, I'll keep watching the show. Regarding the recession, we've been waiting for one for two years by now. Everyone has been talking about a recession coming our way "next quarter" for two years. Never happened. Not saying it isn't now, but if so, it shouldn't be surprise - talking heads have been calling it for years, and half of the talking heads would be able to say "see, I told you so" (if it does happen) while the other half will climb under a rock until they make the next "prediction" and hope they get it right.
 
This guy seems to have a rational approach to the problem:

 
About a month an a half ago I looked at the craziness in politics and moved my entire portfolio, which had been in stocks and target date mutual funds, into a cash equivalent fund. Low interest rate but guaranteed. First wise financial decision I ever made. I'm going to retire in about a month, the market's not gonna bounce back that soon, and need to protect my savings while I structure them for retirement income.
 
I would be concerned if many of the companies in which I hold equity were at risk of going bankrupt. Not happening. It’s not 1929.
 
The only change I've made is to increase my 401K payroll deduction to the maximum (didn't know until now contributions over 25% cannot go 100% to Roth -- maybe it's employer specific). I figure that money is going into the market this year anyway so might as well take advantage of on sale prices. Oh, I'm also putting these new $ into an S&P index fund instead of my usual target date fund. I'll transfer back to target date after the rebound.

Buffet has always advised against timing the market and has recommended never betting against the US economy. I thought it strange him selling throughout last year and now sitting on 300B in cash. Seems he wasn't taking is own advice but, once again, is looking prescient.
 
Flatiowa said:
I’m not so sure, consumer debt and expenditures is spiking and consumer saving rates have been tanking for a while. I’d bet a good share of it would be used mostly to pay off debt.
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Perpective. Baby boomers have about $23T in investments or about 55% of market volume. Total US consumer debt is $18T. 23-18 = 5T left over if all the boomers died at the same time and all the PODs were cashed in and all the proceeds were paid off over night.

All that debt paid off unloads balance sheets of companies in the market, in effect de-risking them. Some of that net effect results in money going back into the market. Consumers without debt would then have free cash flow to spend more and invest more.

That’s not how things will play out though.
 
Moved my future retirement savings contribution to Asia and Europe.

The world has changed in a way. Even if tariffs are removed the culture war will change the trajectory of research into medical and sciences. Long term that will have foundational impact.
 
Flatiowa said:
Add in the baby boomer generation starting to cash out their 401ks, companies quarterly reports more likely than not showing reduced profits
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Flatiowa said:
Any thoughts?
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Technically few retirees will be "cashing out" but merely rolling over their 401Ks into another qualified fund(s). Plus at the institutional investment levels like most 401s are, there will be minimal impact at the indivudual company level. As every wealth advisor worth their salt as been stating over the last week, dont sell. The only time it becomes a loss is when you sell. Full stop. And while the dip may add a delay to some retirement plans, those who properly planned will still retire this year as scheduled just like during previous downturns.
 
SebIp said:
Moved my future retirement savings contribution to Asia and Europe...
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You could be right. The last ~20 years though, you were better off in US markets. I listened to a podcast recently that said US companies do so much business oversees you don't really need to stress over international exposure. That was before the tariff shenanigans so who knows how the dust will settle.
 
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cowman said:
Seems like time to buy to me, like I've said every time there's been a downturn. I was always right in the end, but I never had any money I could risk... had a little bit to put in this time. So now that I'm in it's definitely going to completely fall off a cliff, sorry about that.
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There’s a stock market maxim: “Never try to catch a falling knife.”

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It’s hard - or well nigh impossible - to call a bottom. My personal experience was with Pan Am and Enron.

But solid companies have traditionally weathered the storm and come out OK in the end. I’m not too worried about my positions in Apple and Amazon, for example. Ones that were already on shaky ground, like Stellantis, may not make it. Other companies may not survive if this continues for too long - there’s almost a Darwinian aspect to this. We’ll just have to wait and see, won’t we.
 
midlifeflyer said:
Hang in there. I'm pretty sure the real plan is a to purposely depress stock prices so that certain people I won't mention will buy low and make a killing when it recovers.
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Like me? Although I wouldn’t call it a ‘killing’. Drinking money mostly.
 
The most recent market moves are not driven by long term systemic market conditions. They are short term reactions to pronouncements by the orange man.

Whether you are a fan of him or not, I think we can all agree that what the orange man says today may or may not be a predictor of what he says or does tomorrow or next week. Unless you are a day trader or hedge fund manager, I suggest staying the course on your prudent, diversified, dollar cost averaged long term investment strategy.
 
Ed Haywood said:
The most recent market moves are not driven by long term systemic market conditions. They are short term reactions to pronouncements by the orange man.

Whether you are a fan of him or not, I think we can all agree that what the orange man says today may or may not be a predictor of what he says or does tomorrow or next week. Unless you are a day trader or hedge fund manager, I suggest staying the course on your prudent, diversified, dollar cost averaged long term investment strategy.
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I have theorized that the market (and individual stocks) react with greater moves to bad news than with good. Stated another way, they tend to overreact to negative press, much moreso than their reaction to good news. Fast down, slow up, so to speak. If I had more time (and capital) I'd put my money where my typing fingers are and take advantage of this.
 
Mahneuvers said:
The only change I've made is to increase my 401K payroll deduction to the maximum (didn't know until now contributions over 25% cannot go 100% to Roth -- maybe it's employer specific). I figure that money is going into the market this year anyway so might as well take advantage of on sale prices. Oh, I'm also putting these new $ into an S&P index fund instead of my usual target date fund. I'll transfer back to target date after the rebound.

Buffet has always advised against timing the market and has recommended never betting against the US economy. I thought it strange him selling throughout last year and now sitting on 300B in cash. Seems he wasn't taking is own advice but, once again, is looking prescient.
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I sold about 1/3 my Apple stock just before Buffet sold Apple. At which point I breathed a sigh of relief. It's my backup cash bucket for the time being, just in case.
 
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