The stock market

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4RNB said:
How accurate have your market feelings and thoughts been? Should they be acted upon?

SSDD
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I absolutely am not giving advise, but my money has been in fdic insured bank accounts since April first. I did the same thing one week before the Covid crash, I did miss the bottom of that one but not by much. And read today China retaliated with a 84% tariff…
 
My mom called me this morning to tell me hey the stock market is in trouble, your inheritance is way down :)
 
US bond holdings by China are estimated at 760 billion, that’s going to have a rippling effect when they stop rolling them over and or start dumping them. The bond/stock balancing effects that normally occurs to provide a stabilizing force to the markets is going to stop working normally. This is uncharted territory and past performance does not assure future results.
 
Randomskylane said:
I really needed a pick me up this morning but instead I’m reading about possible war with China! I’m team America but I’m not entirely confident that 300 million mostly fat and old Americans can take on a billion plus. Can we at least schedule it outside of football season? Anyway, who is buying our treasuries? How do we continue to print money if they bomb our printing press? Did we build medical supply factories? Rx factories?

After seeing the lack of planning in canning federal employees, I’m not confident about this possible conflict.
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I dunno. I'm not particularly concerned about a billion poor Chinese packed into barges slowly moving across the Pacific Ocean, nor does the Chinese Navy pose much of a threat to the continental US given our naval and aerial resources. Any actual war China wages against the US will be in cutting off manufacturing for critical components in countries like Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, etc. where microchips/electronics manufacturing/industrial components are often made. When we can't get castings and other components to keep factories, automobiles, infrastructure going because of parts scarcity, we'll be in a bad spot. Those things can be solved given a long enough timeline, but you can't erect forging plants, ore mining, and manufacturing all overnight. Even doing it in the span of a decade takes serious effort.
 
Flatiowa said:
US bond holdings by China are estimated at 760 billion, that’s going to have a rippling effect when they stop rolling them over and or start dumping them. The bond/stock balancing effects that normally occurs to provide a stabilizing force to the markets is going to stop working normally. This is uncharted territory and past performance does not assure future results.
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That's mostly my concern with the market right now anyway. Not really with Chinese bond-holders dumping their positions, but with all of the hedge fund/derivatives stuff unwinding and causing rippling effects. There's a lot of background plumbing that interconnects derivatives and their linked-assets, so when you unravel one market segment as margin calls start becoming a solvency issue and these funds don't have the ability to cover, you end up with the whole house of cards getting wiped out.
 
The parabolic growth of the market the last few years made me think there is a lot of leveraging contributing to it. Leverage to max, market goes up, buy more to max, market goes up, buy more to max….. good while it’s climbing, but when it starts to drops to a threshold a bad very complicated chain of events start happening.

It’s rallying right now, but I don’t think the volatility is over by a long shot. Notice the timing of the “pause” on tariffs and the completion of the us treasury bond auction results… I don’t think it’s coincidental.
 
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Mahneuvers said:
You win the internet prognosticator award for the day :-)
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It is total clowntown out there. But I'm happier with a pause then I am with obscene policy.

Gotta say... the obsequious praise from Treasury makes it even worse, talking about the great courage the president had to leave tariffs on.... For 13 whole hours. How this was a brilliant strategy and gave us everything we wanted (except it didn't). We just have discussions on trade policies with countries that were already having these talks with us.

It's also just nauseating hearing grown men like the Treasury secretary verbally stroke each other off just to boost their job security.

But hey, at least markets are up... For today.
Bond investors might be a little slower to buy into the new self-proclaimed stability, which can disappear with another -- you guessed it -- random tweet U-Turn lol.

We live in interesting times.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
It is total clowntown out there. But I'm happier with a pause then I am with obscene policy.

Gotta say... the obsequious praise from Treasury makes it even worse, talking about the great courage the president had to leave tariffs on.... For 13 whole hours. How this was a brilliant strategy and gave us everything we wanted (except it didn't). We just have discussions on trade policies with countries that were already having these talks with us.

It's also just nauseating hearing grown men like the Treasury secretary verbally stroke each other off just to boost their job security.

But hey, at least markets are up... For today.
Bond investors might be a little slower to buy into the new self-proclaimed stability, which can disappear with another -- you guessed it -- random tweet U-Turn lol.

We live in interesting times.
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No matter who runs the show there will always be a sycophant ready to spin any way they need to to heap praise.
 
Fiveslide said:
Even at cents on the dollar, I don’t have that kind of purchasing power. I've done it several times, but not at that level, lol. I still have my pontoon boat I purchased at a steal during covid.

I'm definitely keeping eyes out for a 38ish foot sailboat to put in a cheap slip on any of the nearby military base marinas. Maybe even a trawler like in my avatar. Something older that has at least been maintained until the market tanked.
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So, your saying that you don't own that Ocean Alexander with the helo pad on the aft cabin pictured in your avatar??? :biggrin:
 
And then it will go down and back up again. Rinse, wash, repeat.
 
robin ardoin said:
So, your saying that you don't own that Ocean Alexander with the helo pad on the aft cabin pictured in your avatar??? :biggrin:
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Lol, no. That pic is from a for sale ad on yachtworld from many years ago. I'm also pretty certain the boat was a Marine Trader, maybe an older Grand Banks. It wasn't that expensive, not OA type money, chopper not included. The owner did actually land the helicopter on it all the time, according to the ad.
 
Velocity173 said:
I didn’t. I was joking thinking they’re about to go bankrupt. Little did I know. :(
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Arrrghh!

Reminds me of when I was in grad school in 1997 and I saw the headline that Bill Gates had agreed to continue producing Office for Macs. It was widely viewed as a temporary delay of bankruptcy for Apple. I put $10K aside with the intent of buying AAPL. Got sidetracked and never followed up. AI says it would be worth $14M today.
 
pfarber said:
Citation needed.
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There's no shortage of articles and reports. The SSA issues a report every year that says the trust fund will run out. Every year they recommend changes. Every year congress ignores them. I have more to say. But this ain't the place. For your "Citation" here's a few places to look. This is just a start:

www.bing.com

Experts have warned for years that social security trust fund needed changes - Bing

Intelligent search from Bing makes it easier to quickly find what you’re looking for and rewards you.
www.bing.com www.bing.com

www.wbur.org

AARP warns Social Security changes could impact access to benefits

Starting at the end of March, millions of Social Security recipients will no longer be able to verify their identity over the phone.
www.wbur.org www.wbur.org
 
Congratulations you've discovered skew. Market distributions are not symmetrical. If you look closely you'll see commodities are skewed the other way. People are afraid of stocks going to zero and gas going to infinity. The exception was the dotcom boom which saw tech stocks with commodity-like skew.

If you're curious, this is why you'll find equally spaced puts & calls are not the same price ;)

www.investopedia.com

Volatility Skew: How it Can Signal Market Sentiment

The volatility skew is the difference in implied volatility (IV) between out-of-the-money (OTM) options, at-the-money options (ATM), and in-the-money options (ITM).
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
 
Llewtrah381 said:
The heck with being on the Signal chat for some raid on Houthis. How do we get on the one telling people the tariff plan is about to flip again? Some serious coin to be made with that knowledge…
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Precisely why I’m completely out of the market ( I won’t play at a rigged table) and in fdic insured accounts for now (for what ever fdic is worth any more, who knows, that might get the chainsaw too) for the very short term, debating keeping it fully liquid for the near short term or shifting to short term CODs. I’m more confident today than I was when I made the original post that it will be fall of 2025 before everything stabilizes again and that might be optimistic. But I am very tempted to use a small chunk of “gambling money” to try to play the market day trading just for sh@:s and giggles.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Arrrghh!

Reminds me of when I was in grad school in 1997 and I saw the headline that Bill Gates had agreed to continue producing Office for Macs. It was widely viewed as a temporary delay of bankruptcy for Apple. I put $10K aside with the intent of buying AAPL. Got sidetracked and never followed up. AI says it would be worth $14M today.
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Early 2010s I was playing around dark web and stumbled upon a bitcoin forum. Lurked around for a while then decided to buy 100 at around $15. Researched, found a website, registered, added, entered bank information and for some reason the transaction didn't go through. $1500 was a lot for me back then and I took it for a sign that I shouldn't waste money on stupid things. Well, here we are...
 
^I thought about editing this but then I realized apologies are as rare as frogs fur on the internet. That was snarkier than I intended, I'm sorry. Skew wasn't really understood until the early 80's so noticing it as an amateur is impressive. It's the market equivalent of someone figuring out adverse yaw on their discovery flight ;)
 
SoonerAviator said:
Any actual war China wages against the US will be in cutting off manufacturing for critical components in countries like Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, etc. where microchips/electronics manufacturing/industrial components are often made. When we can't get castings and other components to keep factories, automobiles, infrastructure going because of parts scarcity, we'll be in a bad spot. Those things can be solved given a long enough timeline, but you can't erect forging plants, ore mining, and manufacturing all overnight. Even doing it in the span of a decade takes serious effort.
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It is not to anyone's advantage to fight. Just saying . . . it's less time sensitive to find alternate sources for industrial raw materials and consumer goods than to find alternate food sources for a billion people.
 
murphey said:
I want the swamp back.
I don't want to "hang tough", it's not on my job description.
I want boredom.
I'm tired of the capricious activities on a mere whim just because "hey, wouldn't this be fun?" with no thought, no concern for the people.
Does all this come under securities fraud rules?
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can I interest you in a nice wells fargo or bank of america savings account? nice and boring.
 
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