I’m calling the peak

Rcmutz said:
Cessna 182 prices are inflated due to the older guys “insurancing out of” their retracts. They bring their money and are willing to pay the higher prices for the fixed gear aircraft, in particular, the 182. I don’t expect to see C182 prices come down anytime in the near future.
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Which might mean if you really wanted a deal on a 182, you might get a discount on one if it's a retract. FWIW, I never even looked at retracts when we bought ours. Among other things, just didn't want to deal with this future insurability problem.
 
WDD said:
Which might mean if you really wanted a deal on a 182, you might get a discount on one if it's a retract. FWIW, I never even looked at retracts when we bought ours. Among other things, just didn't want to deal with this future insurability problem.
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If anyone wants to find me a deal on a 182RG, lmk...
 
Ed Haywood said:
There are no deals.
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Depends on what you want to call I a deal I suppose. Is a 182 RG cheaper than than a fixed gear 182, all other things being equal? If a "deal" is a pre inflation / pre 2021 pricing, yeah, probably not going to find that.
 
A scatter plot of model year vs price for 182 series aircraft
I think you're either buying really old -- or you're buying beat up if you're looking for a "deal".
1756330598192.png
 
brien23 said:
Plenty of old twins for sale and most can't even draw flies.
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That's because many are not good deals, even when the price is low.

An older fellow at my airfield passed away and left a Cessna 310. The family sold it for a song to a guy who runs a flight school. It has spent the ensuing year AOG at various airfields up and down the east coast, because the damn thing has an issue every time he tries to take it somewhere. Two of everything to break.
 
brien23 said:
Plenty of old twins for sale and most can't even draw flies.
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When I was shopping for my twin it was hard finding much without awful panels. If I was going twin I wanted glass already done. Most twins on the market have been kept very original.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Recent data is showing lots of price reductions in the single engine market. The most I've seen yet.
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Been researching a PA 28's. Many either have high time engines, 50 year old avionics or both. May be the asking prices aren't considering how expensive those are to replace today.
 
fast99 said:
Been researching a PA 28's. Many either have high time engines, 50 year old avionics or both. May be the asking prices aren't considering how expensive those are to replace today.
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My experience with the 182 market we’re actively trying to buy in is that sellers think this is still their market. The well positioned planes are selling quickly and below asking price. What I’ve seen moving quickly: TAA 182Ps-Rs with ~450SMOH; panels are mostly dual G5/GTN/GFC500. Competitive bids are in the $190K-$210K range for that setup.

GNS4xx/5xx navigator equipped planes generally have STEC 40s/50s and are sitting. We looked at a D model w/G5s, that setup, and a mid-time engine priced at $160K and passed on even making a bid.
 
Twin market is stagnant. No one is buying, so no one is selling. Same birds in the trades for months.
 
jsstevens said:
Is there historical data to see if prices have ever declined in any meaningful way? Or have they simply flattened until the economy catches up?

I know my dad refused for many years to pay more for a car than he paid for his house. But he paid $11,000 for his house in 1959. He bought his last car (used) in 2012. It was a real challenge and entirely arbitrary and emotional.
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At least once, during the fiscal collapse of 2008.

I was in the market at the time, and had been looking for a few months when the SHTF.

Stuff started to go sideways for people leveraged up in the real world (outside the aviation bubble). "FOR SALE" signs sprouted up around my neighborhood like mushrooms, almost overnight. Didn't take long for the same to happen inside the aviation bubble. The market had been running up, very impressively, up until then. 182s/Bonanzas/anything worthwhile were going for insane prices ($300k+). Twins in the 400s.

Those planes after the crunch were going for a buck fifty ($150k), almost, but not quite overnight. I watched one guy walk away with a beautiful 182RG, recently upgraded with TKS known ice for $135k. The people who had to sell, sold, and that set the market. The people who didn't sell, or didn't need to sell, were very, very cranky for a lot of years afterwards.

After the good birds changed hands to the people who actually had cash money, the junk was left to rot on the tiedowns, and the middling birds pushed into hangars and the doors padlocked.

The market never really recovered, although it crept back up eventually, more so after COVID. It certainly never recovered in real dollar terms.
 
TCABM said:
My experience with the 182 market we’re actively trying to buy in is that sellers think this is still their market. The well positioned planes are selling quickly and below asking price. What I’ve seen moving quickly: TAA 182Ps-Rs with ~450SMOH; panels are mostly dual G5/GTN/GFC500. Competitive bids are in the $190K-$210K range for that setup.

GNS4xx/5xx navigator equipped planes generally have STEC 40s/50s and are sitting. We looked at a D model w/G5s, that setup, and a mid-time engine priced at $160K and passed on even making a bid.
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Interesting observations. It really seems like avionics drive desirability and price these days. I’ve seen dual-G5 setups described as “outdated” in online comments because they aren’t full glass panels with synthetic vision. Maybe I’m getting crotchety and old, but I wonder if full glass really improves the GA experience in proportion to the price levied.
 
AlleyCat67 said:
Interesting observations. It really seems like avionics drive desirability and price these days. I’ve seen dual-G5 setups described as “outdated” in online comments because they aren’t full glass panels with synthetic vision. Maybe I’m getting crotchety and old, but I wonder if full glass really improves the GA experience in proportion to the price levied.
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Depends. Dual G5s work fine and we have that in our 172, along with a GTN650.

We’re specifically looking to add an XC plane to our club fleet, and in some respects the “first generation” retrofits with a glass PFD/HSI install may or may not result in an autopilot being driven by those new instruments, may or may not allow for removal of the vac system, and may or may not even have a GNS430. And may or may not be TAA, which opens up that airframe to people considering their CSEL ticket.

Each plane is unique, but to continue to upgrade some panels to bring them up a level of reliability we desire writes off a lot of those half baked panels off since we want capability from day 1 instead of doing yet another upgrade to a plane we just bought.

We’ve also discussed it being preferable to refurb a time capsule instead of something that got a variety of upgrades over time, especially considering a lot of those are GNS430 driven which is okay, but when it dies we’d be looking at an IFD replacement and for our pilot group, having different navigators on different planes could further segment a small but not inconsequential segment of our pilot group.
 
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4RNB said:
With Mosaic changes I suspect SEL starter planes might come back down in price a bit.
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IDK, I'm kind of thinking the opposite. There are still buyers that can budget for a 57K Cherokee but a newer plane (LSA etc) that is well over 100K is a bridge to far.
 
TCABM said:
Depends. Dual G5s work fine and we have that in our 172, along with a GTN650.

We’re specifically looking to add an XC plane to our club fleet, and in some respects the “first generation” retrofits with a glass PFD/HSI install may or may not result in an autopilot being driven by those new instruments, may or may not allow for removal of the vac system, and may or may not even have a GNS430. And may or may not be TAA, which opens up that airframe to people considering their CSEL ticket.

Each plane is unique, but to continue to upgrade some panels to bring them up a level of reliability we desire writes a lot of those half baked panels off since we want capability from day 1 instead of doing yet another upgrade to a plane we just bought.

We’ve also discussed it being preferable to refurb a time capsule instead of something that got a variety of upgrades over time, especially considering a lot of those are GNS430 driven which is okay, but when it dies we’d be looking at an IFD replacement and for our pilot group, having different navigators on different planes could further segment a small but not inconsequential segment of our pilot group.
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Are you in the mid Atlantic region by chance?
 
Cracker928 said:
Getting the gas prices down sure would help. They seem to have at least stabilized a bit.
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Gas being even a dollar cheaper wouldn't put a dent in annual cost to operate after you factor hangar, maintenance, insurance, subscriptions.
 
Richman67 said:
At least once, during the fiscal collapse of 2008.

I was in the market at the time, and had been looking for a few months when the SHTF.

Stuff started to go sideways for people leveraged up in the real world (outside the aviation bubble). "FOR SALE" signs sprouted up around my neighborhood like mushrooms, almost overnight. Didn't take long for the same to happen inside the aviation bubble. The market had been running up, very impressively, up until then. 182s/Bonanzas/anything worthwhile were going for insane prices ($300k+). Twins in the 400s.

Those planes after the crunch were going for a buck fifty ($150k), almost, but not quite overnight. I watched one guy walk away with a beautiful 182RG, recently upgraded with TKS known ice for $135k. The people who had to sell, sold, and that set the market. The people who didn't sell, or didn't need to sell, were very, very cranky for a lot of years afterwards.

After the good birds changed hands to the people who actually had cash money, the junk was left to rot on the tiedowns, and the middling birds pushed into hangars and the doors padlocked.

The market never really recovered, although it crept back up eventually, more so after COVID. It certainly never recovered in real dollar terms.
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One key difference between now and 2008: the inflation factor. Everything feels super expensive right now, but is it really? Or is it that we are simply acclimating to a new dollar value? When a fast food combo meal is pushing $15 (read: "common man" food), the nosebleeds for a regular-season NFL game are $500+ (read: "common man" entertainment), and a Toyota Camry has an MSRP over $30K (read: "common man" car), that tells you something.

As far as so-called "good deals" go? Good luck. To get a unicorn deal in a transaction, you need to have an advantage over the other party. It would be atypical to secure such an advantage in a market with sophisticated, educated, and financially healthy participants. In a non-distressed market, a serious buyer is willing and prepared to pay true market value. (And a serious seller is willing to list at and accept true market value.)
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
When I was shopping for my twin it was hard finding much without awful panels. If I was going twin I wanted glass already done. Most twins on the market have been kept very original.
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For me, a panel upgrade is an easier pill to swallow than a plane with other, more permanent shortcomings. For example, a 1500 lb useful load is never going to turn into 2000 lbs. And sometimes the shiny new panel can be scary ... why did they put all that money into upgrading the panel just to sell the plane? Were the last 5 annuals all over $100k because every rivet in the plane is coming loose or something?

The panel upgrade on the 310 let me have exactly the panel I asked for. That includes the Garmin EIS integrated into the PFD, which for me is a huge safety improvement because it puts the things most likely to kill me (decaying airspeed, unusual attitude, terrain, and engine problems) all on one screen that even a tunnel-vision scan can fully cover. The cost was 10-15% more than quoted, mostly due to airframe issues that came up along the way and would have been good to fix anyhow. That's pretty good for airplane stuff.

But, that being said, I wouldn't rush out to buy a twin without an LPV-capable GPS and ADS-B transponder. I don't mind being the one who invests in a new panel, but I don't necessarily think it should be the first thing I do with my shiny 'new' airplane. :)
 
iamtheari said:
For me, a panel upgrade is an easier pill to swallow than a plane with other, more permanent shortcomings. For example, a 1500 lb useful load is never going to turn into 2000 lbs. And sometimes the shiny new panel can be scary ... why did they put all that money into upgrading the panel just to sell the plane? Were the last 5 annuals all over $100k because every rivet in the plane is coming loose or something?

The panel upgrade on the 310 let me have exactly the panel I asked for. That includes the Garmin EIS integrated into the PFD, which for me is a huge safety improvement because it puts the things most likely to kill me (decaying airspeed, unusual attitude, terrain, and engine problems) all on one screen that even a tunnel-vision scan can fully cover. The cost was 10-15% more than quoted, mostly due to airframe issues that came up along the way and would have been good to fix anyhow. That's pretty good for airplane stuff.

But, that being said, I wouldn't rush out to buy a twin without an LPV-capable GPS and ADS-B transponder. I don't mind being the one who invests in a new panel, but I don't necessarily think it should be the first thing I do with my shiny 'new' airplane. :)
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You do you. I'll fly behind this and grin the whole way because I didn't pay for it.

20250619_162942.jpg
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
You do you. I'll fly behind this and grin the whole way because I didn't pay for it.
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Nothing wrong with buying someone else's panel, especially a really nice one like you've got, and I know you actually bought a nice plane with a nice panel rather than a nice panel in a crummy plane. That's a good deal because you get to enjoy everything on day 1. My point was mostly that I'd rather delay the grinning a bit by doing my own panel upgrade than have to grin alone in a plane with a useful load too small to bring any friends. :)
 
There is a beautiful Turbo Saratoga on our airfield with all glass panel. Recently bought for $400K ish. My buddy the A&P pulled the oil filter off last week. So many ferrous particles he could scoop out clumps with his fingers, like peanut butter.

Beauty is skin deep.
 
Ed Haywood said:
There is a beautiful Turbo Saratoga on our airfield with all glass panel. Recently bought for $400K ish. My buddy the A&P pulled the oil filter off last week. So many ferrous particles he could scoop out clumps with his fingers, like peanut butter.

Beauty is skin deep.
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So in six months or so it will be a beautiful Turbo Saratoga with an all glass panel and a fresh engine, right?
:biggrin:
 
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