I’m calling the peak

Niche data point: every time I compete in an aerobatic contest, I browse for a Pitts S1S. Many times during the past few years there were none for sale. Zero. Now there are 4 on Barnstormers.
 
So here we are 3 1/2 years later, and I don’t see a decline in prices, seems to me like we’ve just leveled off.
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
So here we are 3 1/2 years later, and I don’t see a decline in prices, seems to me like we’ve just leveled off.
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Likely. We just looked at a 182P with a full GI-275 based panel/GTN650 Xi, GTR-225, and 3-axis GFC-500 w/auto trim & YD and a FS510. 450SMOH by a reputable shop, and new interior. Flown often. Plane was listed at $220K and went under contract for -5% less. VRef for that plane as equipped was $192K. Biggest detractor was the 7000 hr TT; paint was a 6/10 and neutral on value.

Our insurer agreed to the value of our negotiated price. Unfortunately, we were outbid and decided not to counter. I’ve seen lesser quality 182s from the same era listed close to or over $300K. Those listings are stagnant. We’re discussing making an offer on one that’s more in line with what we believe the market is, but that offer’s close to a $100K discount from asking.

So far, our 182 search has been depressing. Of three candidates, one had a catastrophic engine failure prior to our pre-buy, one is flyable albeit a panel & interior project, and we lost out on the above described plane.
 
Sounds like the market a year ago when wife and I bought our 182P. The "diamonds in the rough" priced 182's were more rough than diamond. We were looking for over a year. Had a pre buy on one with a good price that revealed the plane really needed a ferry permit to get back home. I think at this point the money you "save" with a good price is going to be immediately used to fix the items that a "normal" priced plane wouldn't need.

I changed my fundamental approach and just accepted to pay the market rate for a plane that I could live with / could get to my standards. Frame that is true and straight, no corrosion, good enough upkeep that all the little parts/hoses/cables/etc. won't break immediately. Engine that has good internals. I don't need a new Cirrus leather quality interior, but something that wouldn't turn away a homeless person, paint that can last 10 years and will decently shine up, etc.

Avionics? No plane will have what I want, so I accepted that whatever I buy I'll sent to the Avionics Shop for 6 weeks and budget accordingly.

End result? "Financial" - bad if my plan was to flip the plane and make money. "Life Enjoyable" - good in that wife and I have a plane that we can fly as long as I can fly and go do things. Headed up to Chicago for grandson's 2nd B Day party on Friday. I got to fly FISKE to Oshkosh. Last month got to to to Louisville for daughter's baby shower whatnot, and was able to pick up and deliver friend from college to it as well that otherwise couldn't have made it. THAT'S why we have this thing.
 
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I think time on the market is still very short for several plane types. Also T6 prices are through the roof! :(
 
What do we think the new MOSAIC rules will do to prices at the low end?
 
Some planes are hot, others not. You can get a twin for a song but a 172 or 182 will cost you a whole opera. Just depends. In the Mooney world, Mooney J's are hot, long bodies slower. J prices ratcheting up, Ovation, Acclaim, Eagle and Bravo prices are flat. Cherokee/Archers have flattened but not necessarily increased. Arrows have dropped. Cherokee 6's have flattened (still pricey though), Saratogas and even turbo lances have spiked. Tales from the broker world. Still lots of unrealistically priced listings. It's the typical "I don't really want to sell but if I could get xxx$, I will". Motivated sellers will price right and get offers. Still lots of buyers out there.
 
Well upgraded planes still sell, and usually inside the local circle or without making it to the trades. Some shops are opening up, some parts of the supply chain are working again, but you're still looking at a long, arduous, expensive process to upgrade an older plane, and upgraded/sell time curve isn't linear.

Nice twins are still selling, it's just the ratio of nice to need stuff is different than the singles.
 
I keep an eye on Grummans, and it seems like prices have dropped substantially in the last year after skyrocketing during Covid. I’m seeing Tigers with decent specs listed for around $100k or so. During Covid there would typically be a dozen Grummans available on Trade-a-Plane; when I checked this week there were 38.
 
AlleyCat67 said:
I keep an eye on Grummans, and it seems like prices have dropped substantially in the last year after skyrocketing during Covid. I’m seeing Tigers with decent specs listed for around $100k or so. During Covid there would typically be a dozen Grummans available on Trade-a-Plane; when I checked this week there were 38.
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I keep my eye on Mooneys, J in particular, during Covid there were only 7 on controller for a short period, but generally there were 17, then 2022 it was close to 30, now it’s 25. There’s one for sale for $300k, but that’s not a serious seller, otherwise prices have been fairly stable for the last 2 years.
 
Flight school here is still unable to accomodate everyone.....but if inflation continues to remain above "target", nothing but more "mush" ahead.....
 
AlleyCat67 said:
I keep an eye on Grummans, and it seems like prices have dropped substantially in the last year after skyrocketing during Covid. I’m seeing Tigers with decent specs listed for around $100k or so. During Covid there would typically be a dozen Grummans available on Trade-a-Plane; when I checked this week there were 38.
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I stopped looking altogether when I saw the average price of those was seemingly over $150k :oops: Glad to hear they're coming back down to a reasonable range again.
 
simtech said:
Imagine sitting on the side lines and missing out on 3 plus years of aviation just for the prices to still be high or errr flat(still high). Just buy the plane and join in stop waiting, trust me it’s worth it!
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Easily said when you’re not expanding a fleet without incurring debt.
 
Is there historical data to see if prices have ever declined in any meaningful way? Or have they simply flattened until the economy catches up?

I know my dad refused for many years to pay more for a car than he paid for his house. But he paid $11,000 for his house in 1959. He bought his last car (used) in 2012. It was a real challenge and entirely arbitrary and emotional.
 
jsstevens said:
Is there historical data to see if prices have ever declined in any meaningful way? Or have they simply flattened until the economy catches up?

I know my dad refused for many years to pay more for a car than he paid for his house. But he paid $11,000 for his house in 1959. He bought his last car (used) in 2012. It was a real challenge and entirely arbitrary and emotional.
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It might have been a little easier if he'd factored in inflation.
 
Yeah. But sounds like he lived well within his means, never had to worry about missing a car payment, etc. On the flip side, the whole reason of saving for a rainy day is to enjoy the sunny days.
 
jsstevens said:
I know my dad refused for many years to pay more for a car than he paid for his house. But he paid $11,000 for his house in 1959. He bought his last car (used) in 2012. It was a real challenge and entirely arbitrary and emotional.
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If he had used the current sale price of his house as a benchmark, he probably could have bought a Porsche.
 
With Mosaic changes I suspect SEL starter planes might come back down in price a bit.
 
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Ed Haywood said:
If he had used the current sale price of his house as a benchmark, he probably could have bought a Porsche.
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Well, he never sold it. We helped my mom get it ready to sell and sold 3 years after he died. Got about $230k in 2018. So 60 years of appreciation was ~$220K. Except he also left out that he already owned the property so that wasn’t part of the $11,000. And he and his father did most of the labor.
 
4RNB said:
With Mosaic changes I suspect SEL starter planes might come back down in price a bit.
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I don’t know much about mosaic but if it brings more people back into the pool to buy I feel starter planes will go up in cost. Am I looking at that wrong?
 
simtech said:
I don’t know much about mosaic but if it brings more people back into the pool to buy I feel starter planes will go up in cost. Am I looking at that wrong?
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I dont have a lot of interest in all the Mosaic details. From my perspective flying an EAB that someone else built, I can now take a 2 day class and legally sign off the "annual". Because of this, I think more people will and should get into EAB, drive up EAB prices and bring down certified starter plane aka school plane prices. I do not have to build. I do not have to take a 2yr AP class. 15 hours...!!!

Also, someone can take a 15 day class and do all the work on other peoples EAB/LSA planes, for pay. So, more labor should be available, even if it is just a guy you know and not someone that has hung a shingle and rented a hangar.
Maybe certified plane service can thus improve?

I'm signed up for a 15 day class early 2026.
 
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4RNB said:
I done have a lot of interest in all the Mosaic details. From my perspective flying an EAB that someone else built, I can now take a 2 day class and legally sign off the "annual". Because of this, I think more people will and should get into EAB, drive up EAB prices and bring down certified starter plane aka school plane prices. I do not have to build. I do not have to take a 2yr AP class. 15 hours...!!!

Also, someone can take a 15 day class and do all the work on other peoples EAB/LSA planes, for pay. So, more labor should be available, even if it is just a guy you know and not someone that has hung a shingle and rented a hangar.
Maybe certified plane service can thus improve?

I'm signed up for a 15 day class early 2026.
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Wow yeah that is likely to lower the cost of those. That’s actually pretty cool and thanks for the run down!
 
4RNB said:
Also, someone can take a 15 day class and do all the work on other peoples EAB/LSA planes, for pay. So, more labor should be available, even if it is just a guy you know and not someone that has hung a shingle and rented a hangar.
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Except once you cross that line and perform work for hire, one now assumes the liability for that work. I think a LSRI for personal E/AB condition inspections was a smart move, however, I just don't see the draw to the LSRM on a large scale.
 
simtech said:
Imagine sitting on the side lines and missing out on 3 plus years of aviation just for the prices to still be high or errr flat(still high). Just buy the plane and join in stop waiting, trust me it’s worth it!
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..Imagine buying a -520 powered Bonanza for a bag of peanuts in 2019, lecturing people about price elasticity of demand in 2025. *Pepperidge Farms era buyers (*pre-April 2022, M2 peak) should really take a knee and sit this one out, when it comes to lecturing anyone about price elasticity of demand.

I don't really watch sports, but third base is my least favorite part of baseball.
 
Bell206 said:
Except once you cross that line and perform work for hire, one now assumes the liability for that work. I think a LSRI for personal E/AB condition inspections was a smart move, however, I just don't see the draw to the LSRM on a large scale.
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Your maintenance costs must be a lot cheaper than mine.

I tend to think of people as being motivated by money.
 
4RNB said:
I tend to think of people as being motivated by money.
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True. But when you start to take other peoples money for providing a service, some people want to take that money back, and more, when you screw up. It will be interesting if these newly certified LSRMs will get insurance to protect that money they earn or go without? I'd be curious to know if any underwriter would even write a policy for a LSRM given my experience with mx ops on TC aircraft.
 
Bell206 said:
True. But when you start to take other peoples money for providing a service, some people want to take that money back, and more, when you screw up. It will be interesting if these newly certified LSRMs will get insurance to protect that money they earn or go without? I'd be curious to know if any underwriter would even write a policy for a LSRM given my experience with mx ops on TC aircraft.
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With your concerns you prolly shouldn't go into this business.

Someone hungry prolly could.
 
4RNB said:
With your concerns you prolly shouldn't go into this business.
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Except I’ve been in this business for over 40 years signing off other people’s condition inspections, etc. Since most A&Ps don’t want the LSA/EAB work due to the liability, what makes a hungry LSRM any different?
 
Bell206 said:
Except I’ve been in this business for over 40 years signing off other people’s condition inspections, etc. Since most A&Ps don’t want the LSA/EAB work due to the liability, what makes a hungry LSRM any different?
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I said what I believe. You dont believe those things, that is fine. You have superior experience and licensure, I am not going to try and convince you. And since this is your business, I reckon my point that your maintenance costs are cheaper than mine is true.

I can only speak to my experience, observations, and expectations.

I've had fully licensed and I expect insured people:
1. Tell me I need a new engine when I had oil on the windscreen from a front crankcase/prop seal go bad. The same person could not find the problem the first time I took the plane to them.
2. Sample oil using first draw sample that included oil from other planes, Blackstone called me full of concern over that sample.
3. An AI would not do the SB directed manufacturing work I wanted him to (and supplied everything for) because it was not called for in the specific parts manufacture directions.
4. I waited months waiting for other work to be complete that went way over time budget.
5. One shop told me they would not sign off my 2300 hr engine with 300 hr cylinders because it was over time.
6. Another shop had a tough time meeting with me directly (three busted appointments) when one of their CFIs labeled my plane "unairworthy" and lacking a MEL (C172). The light cracks in the fairings scared them off...
7. Another shop, without seeing my plane or my cylinders said they would not sign off the annual because the prebuy showed some rust on the cylinders (13 hrs flying over 2 years).
8. One shop failed to reconnect the ductwork after some work leading to carb ice.

My EAB motivation has thus grown and I have extrapolated this to include others. There are shops that specialize in such things and I think that number will grow.

The fastest growing market in aviation is non builder owners of experimental aircraft.
 
4RNB said:
I can only speak to my experience, observations, and expectations.
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Except I commented on liabilities and not mistakes. But since you brought it up, why do you believe a certified LSRM will not make those same mistakes?

The one thing you are missing is I’m a huge supporter of expanding maintenance abilities for aircraft owners. However, with that expansion comes the same liabilities and pitfalls current APIAs face when working on other people’s aircraft. To think just because it is an E/AB or LSA, or its only a LSRM changes that fact is simply not correct.

As to my maintenance costs, I have zero expenses since I have never flown or operated my own aircraft.
 
hindsight2020 said:
..Imagine buying a -520 powered Bonanza for a bag of peanuts in 2019, lecturing people about price elasticity of demand in 2025. *Pepperidge Farms era buyers (*pre-April 2022, M2 peak) should really take a knee and sit this one out, when it comes to lecturing anyone about price elasticity of demand.

I don't really watch sports, but third base is my least favorite part of baseball.
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I get you nailed my situation and I get that planes are luxury and very elastic, however there are still deals to be had. I’m a real estate investor as well and I haven’t sat in the sidelines. I’m still buying and selling cash flowing assets. Planes are no different, well most are just money pits not making money, but if one can truly afford it they will pay. I’ve learned most people are tire kickers in all facets of asset classes. If something is truly wanted it will be bought and I firmly believe the pre covid prices will not be seen. Obviously I can’t guarantee that but sitting around in life usually makes buying things more expensive later. Like in real estate, a bad deal today will be a great deal in 20 years…
 
Cessna 182 prices are inflated due to the older guys “insurancing out of” their retracts. They bring their money and are willing to pay the higher prices for the fixed gear aircraft, in particular, the 182. I don’t expect to see C182 prices come down anytime in the near future.
 
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