I’m calling the peak

flyingcheesehead said:
Nice... And it fixes one of the most annoying things about the Seneca, which is the utterly idiotic placement of the engine gauges from the factory.
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I am a huge fan of the EIS-on-PFD concept. I think I even prefer it over a separate EIS display (as the TXi makes available for singles and piston twins and requires for turbine twins). I feel like I am much more likely to catch an engine issue early with the gauges closer to the center of my instrument scan.
 
All the TAP ads the volume of ads is definitely more than couple years ago.
Example is mooney ads I watched couple years ago for about a year was always 60-70 ads.Now today 120 ads.
 
nauga said:
When everything is primary, nothing is primary :cool:

Nauga,
not a fan of the AIO panel
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I'm willing to take my chances with it. I don't have the numbers, but subjectively the risk feels higher that I won't notice an engine problem simmering on a far-away vintage round gauge than that I will have an engine problem between the time the PFD fails and when I find a place to land. Of course, one size does not fit all and nothing is free. My panel philosophy has tradeoffs, like all others.
 
bonefishpete said:
All the TAP ads the volume of ads is definitely more than couple years ago.
Example is mooney ads I watched couple years ago for about a year was always 60-70 ads.Now today 120 ads.
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Pilots ageing out, it's not just Mooney all complex planes with old pilots 75+ are having problems with insurance.
 
fast99 said:
Been researching a PA 28's. Many either have high time engines, 50 year old avionics or both. May be the asking prices aren't considering how expensive those are to replace today.
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Or the potential down times for engine OH or avionics installs!
 
Rcmutz said:
Or the potential down times for engine OH or avionics installs!
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good point, would 50k be a reasonable estimate for a replacement 0320 engine and could I assume a 0380 would be more?
 
fast99 said:
good point, would 50k be a reasonable estimate for a replacement 0320 engine and could I assume a 0380 would be more?
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replacement new? No. New-limits field overhaul, maybe. In 2025 it's looking like about 50k-65k installed depending on accessories, and the better part of a year to overhaul if you're not doing any of the labor. That also assumes the crank and case don't need replacement, more if needed. New prices from Lyco are like 85k before installation, so almost 100k new with firewall forward installation and labor included. Shark meet jump.

O360 prices vary more internally depending on whether you're looking at angle valve or parallel variants. O-320 only come in parallel variant. The difference in price between parallel valve O360 and 320 is not significant. Angle valve variants are the ones that separate price points quickly, also because lack of aftermarket cylinder options.

I never tracked powerplant prices close enough back in the 2010s to see if macroeconomics ever made them lower in price the way aircraft prices do/did, but it will be interesting to see if Lycoming and Conti adjust list prices downward to account for the receding tide in demand as flight school demand collapses from the chi-flu era apogee.
 
hindsight2020 said:
replacement new? No. New-limits field overhaul, maybe. In 2025 it's looking like about 50k-65k installed depending on accessories, and the better part of a year to overhaul if you're not doing any of the labor. That also assumes the crank and case don't need replacement, more if needed. New prices from Lyco are like 85k before installation, so almost 100k new with firewall forward installation and labor included. Shark meet jump.

O360 prices vary more internally depending on whether you're looking at angle valve or parallel variants. O-320 only come in parallel variant. The difference in price between parallel valve O360 and 320 is not significant. Angle valve variants are the ones that separate price points quickly, also because lack of aftermarket cylinder options.

I never tracked powerplant prices close enough back in the 2010s to see if macroeconomics ever made them lower in price the way aircraft prices do/did, but it will be interesting to see if Lycoming and Conti adjust list prices downward to account for the receding tide in demand as flight school demand collapses from the chi-flu era apogee.
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Thanks..........I think. That explains why there are quite a few higher time engines. Owners bailing before the hit.
 
fast99 said:
good point, would 50k be a reasonable estimate for a replacement 0320 engine and could I assume a 0380 would be more?
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hindsight2020 said:
replacement new? No. New-limits field overhaul, maybe. In 2025 it's looking like about 50k-65k installed depending on accessories, and the better part of a year to overhaul if you're not doing any of the labor. That also assumes the crank and case don't need replacement, more if needed. New prices from Lyco are like 85k before installation, so almost 100k new with firewall forward installation and labor included. Shark meet jump.
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I'll lend a different perspective. @hindsight2020 just went through the exercise of shopping around for an engine and I don't dispute his numbers at all, but I will say there are multiple techniques for separating a feline from its skin.

I just completed a major overhaul of my O-360 and got the plane back in the air at the end of June. I spent $27k, including removal and reinstallation of the engine. I have four new cylinders, new crankshaft, new camshaft, etc. In fact, the only parts that are refurb'd instead of new are the cases, the conn rods, and the rocker arms.

When hindsight2020 says "if you're not doing any of the labor," understand that doing much of the labor yourself makes an enormous difference. I did most of the teardown myself, and assisted my A&P-IA with the assembly and installation, but even that's not the end of it.

The amount of time required to research the correct part numbers, ADs, service bulletins, etc. to overhaul a half-century old engine is enormous. It's not made easier by many parts being obsolete under the original p/n and having to wade through lists of this is superseded by that which is superseded by this other number, but it's not available, but such&such is an acceptable alternate, and so on. And that's not just for major components; you'll run into it for washers and seals and bolts and nuts and on and on and on.....

Then there's locating the parts. Who has what in stock? What's the price? Then there's finding shops to do refurb work, and what's their schedule, and OMG I'll have to wait six months to get my crankcase back but these other guys can halve that if I'll pay an expediting fee. And then packing and shipping and insuring.

Doing all that ca-ca yourself, even if you don't spin a wrench personally, unloads a lot of time from your mechanic. Plus your mechanic might not have (or take) the time to shop for the best pricing.

Anyway, my overarching point is that you can bring down the price of an OH significantly by working with a local A&P that you trust and doing a lot of the work yourself. Don't let the fear of a $100k engine job dissuade you if you have the time, skill, and inclination to get some grease on your hands.
 
Half Fast said:
Anyway, my overarching point is that you can bring down the price of an OH significantly by working with a local A&P that you trust and doing a lot of the work yourself. Don't let the fear of a $100k engine job dissuade you if you have the time, skill, and inclination to get some grease on your hands.
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You and @Jim K should start up a PoA members only engine overhaul service. Actually, the due diligence on specs is an enormous safety concern, as witnessed by the predominant absence of it out there in lawnmower land.
 
Half Fast said:
I'll lend a different perspective. @hindsight2020 just went through the exercise of shopping around for an engine and I don't dispute his numbers at all, but I will say there are multiple techniques for separating a feline from its skin.

I just completed a major overhaul of my O-360 and got the plane back in the air at the end of June. I spent $27k, including removal and reinstallation of the engine. I have four new cylinders, new crankshaft, new camshaft, etc. In fact, the only parts that are refurb'd instead of new are the cases, the conn rods, and the rocker arms.

When hindsight2020 says "if you're not doing any of the labor," understand that doing much of the labor yourself makes an enormous difference. I did most of the teardown myself, and assisted my A&P-IA with the assembly and installation, but even that's not the end of it.

The amount of time required to research the correct part numbers, ADs, service bulletins, etc. to overhaul a half-century old engine is enormous. It's not made easier by many parts being obsolete under the original p/n and having to wade through lists of this is superseded by that which is superseded by this other number, but it's not available, but such&such is an acceptable alternate, and so on. And that's not just for major components; you'll run into it for washers and seals and bolts and nuts and on and on and on.....

Then there's locating the parts. Who has what in stock? What's the price? Then there's finding shops to do refurb work, and what's their schedule, and OMG I'll have to wait six months to get my crankcase back but these other guys can halve that if I'll pay an expediting fee. And then packing and shipping and insuring.

Doing all that ca-ca yourself, even if you don't spin a wrench personally, unloads a lot of time from your mechanic. Plus your mechanic might not have (or take) the time to shop for the best pricing.

Anyway, my overarching point is that you can bring down the price of an OH significantly by working with a local A&P that you trust and doing a lot of the work yourself. Don't let the fear of a $100k engine job dissuade you if you have the time, skill, and inclination to get some grease on your hands.
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Will keep all that in mind, good info. I am a semi retired auto tech so getting dirty isn't a problem. The A&P at the flight school I was trained at does side work. Will talk to him. Just trying to get a feel on what is involved. Obviously much more than new a GM 350. Thanks
 
fast99 said:
Will keep all that in mind, good info. I am a semi retired auto tech so getting dirty isn't a problem. The A&P at the flight school I was trained at does side work. Will talk to him. Just trying to get a feel on what is involved. Obviously much more than new a GM 350. Thanks
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FWIW, overhauling an airplane engine is probably more akin to restoring a 1963 Farmall tractor that's been out of production for forty years than working on a modern automobile, with the added fun that the tractor is unlikely to kill you if you got something wrong.

I've raced cars, gone scuba diving in wrecks and caves, etc., but the first flight on a freshly OH'd engine was a whole new level of pucker factor.
 
Piperonca said:
You and @Jim K should start up a PoA members only engine overhaul service. Actually, the due diligence on specs is an enormous safety concern, as witnessed by the predominant absence of it out there in lawnmower land.
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fast99 said:
Will keep all that in mind, good info. I am a semi retired auto tech so getting dirty isn't a problem. The A&P at the flight school I was trained at does side work. Will talk to him. Just trying to get a feel on what is involved. Obviously much more than new a GM 350. Thanks
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Half Fast said:
Not me. One OH in a lifetime was enough. And if I weren't retired, I wouldn't have had the time. The prices the OH shops charge are justified.
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I'll say, I enjoyed my overhaul immensely. I'm looking forward to doing the engine for my RV build. The waiting and the cost suck, but they suck less than paying someone else to do it.

If you know how to carefully read and follow procedures, do some research, and work a torque wrench, it's easily within your grasp.

Most a&p's won't do a field overhaul anymore due to the time it takes and the liability. They'd end up having to change more than the engine shops that already have the big insurance policy, stacks of parts, and who have seen everything that can go wrong.

I can't say id recommend buying a run out plane though, with a plan of doing your own overhaul. As half-fast said, it's a pretty huge pucker factor rolling that throttle up for the first time, and in my case I had 500+ hours in that particular plane. Doing in a plane I'm not intimately familiar with seems terrifying. So says the guy building the engine for his EAB. I'm planning on getting that engine broken in on a dyno though before I fly it, and I have one under my belt now that gives me some confidence I might be capable of not screwing it up.
 
All good info. Kind of already been through the new engine experience didn't like it. I was the last student before rebuild, and 1st student flying the new engine. However they did put a few hours hours on it before I crawled in. CFI was really watching the gauges and we stayed close to the airport.

Given the choice sounds like better off with a 500hr engine and dated avionics.
 
PastZTL said:
It's UKRAINE! UKRAINE! We now go to our 643rd in-depth story on the war in Ukraine.
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To keep it aviation, It's a good time to keep a lookout on Flight Designs LSA. They were bought by the same group as owns ICON now and are trying to recover in the Czech Republic after their Ukraine factory became no bueno. It's a good plane and the drama should keep the prices low.
 
GeorgeC said:
bigmac-png.124481
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Compared to 2023, here's 2025 to date for 75th percentile 172 asking prices on barnstormers:
c172_2025.jpg
Not much motion for the trusty 172. Anecdotally, 170s and 180s seem way down from the peak.
 
TAP is showing 172/182 price is pretty close to each other. Vast more low time 182’s available.

Expect more school 172 planes will hit the market with pilot hiring slowing.
 
Bill said:
Probably the peak on many toys. The rising inflation and fuel prices are a wake up call, and the covid spend fest is over. I expect the pendulum to swing towards a period of austerity.
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Agreed.

I am a professional futures trader and there are some fun things happening that will affect plane prices.

1) Housing is frozen and prices are declining.
-MANY folks went and got HELOC loans to buy planes 5 years ago during the frenzy. Now they are upside down on their house and their planes/

2) I'm expecting a final top in indexes in Q1. This will have knock-on effects to almost everything else.

3) Rates are headed lower - for now - but its due to global macro weakness - this IS NOT bullish for asset prices. Rolex/Boats/Planes all have inventory WAY up - and you can see it everywhere. Wait it out another year and see where we are.

4) When we enter an actual recession - we will see global money printing to the levels we have never seen before in order to try and stop crashing stock prices. This will cause inflation to run insane into the back half of this decade - but it won't be immeidate.

In GENERAL - I'm looking for ~ 2016 prices on most things. Commercial Real Estate is an outright dumpster fire - there are MAJOR issues in the muni Bond Market - Residential Real Estate is frozen and crashing in certain metro areas (Austin/sunbelt/etc) - planes/boats/bikes are all going to start getting a lot cheaper as the principal owners (Boomers) age out and cant/wont maintain them.

The time to buy a plane will be in the next few years IMO - I'm looking for a nice Mirage and these prices are steadily marching lower so far.
 
Jetter2 said:
Agreed.


1) Housing is frozen and prices are declining.
-MANY folks went and got HELOC loans to buy planes 5 years ago during the frenzy. Now they are upside down on their house and their planes/
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All points well said. I did want to highlight your bullet #1, as that was the literal case study and reason I bought the Arrow in 2013 from people who resemble your stated remarks in 2007. That time gap is important to the macro point.

This is something many of the polyannas on here will never acknowledge: to people who are incapable of seeing evolutions that take half a decade, everything is either fake or a doomer conspiracy. Housing/asset class reset second tier effects are not immediate. When and only when the street dynamic is obvious, or touches them personally, only then they turn around handwave it away as something else while pretending they never denied it. Using the fact it took 5 years as plausible deniability to a collective of equally short-attention spanned of course. I've seen this movie before, they'll never change, which is why we deserve the inflationary pain we tacitly encourage by our own collective myopia. Keep eating that marshmallow, and I'll keep dancing on the proverbial Walmart $5 bin left behind by those who play out-of-turn.
 
hindsight2020 said:
I've seen this movie before, they'll never change, which is why we deserve the inflationary pain we tacitly encourage by our own collective myopia.
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Just gotta keep waiting. I'm in a flight club and we have 3 C172s, 2 warriors, and a Dakota - I have plenty of options to fly as I wait out the market.

Point #4 is the big one. When everything crashes out and resets - well see panic selling the bottom again. The REAL pain will come in the back half of the decade as rates climb >10% - which will CRUSH asset prices.

Hurry up and wait everyone - we're all still VERY early.
 
Jetter2 said:
1) Housing is frozen and prices are declining.
-MANY folks went and got HELOC loans to buy planes 5 years ago during the frenzy. Now they are upside down on their house and their planes/
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Just some added context around how BAD the housing market is.


"Pending home sales in October 2025 came in -1.2% below last year, and -27% below the long-term average. Today's contract signings are at the lowest level in 30+ years - even worse than the GFC - and showing no noticeable signs of improvement (even after 6 Fed rate cuts and a big spike in inventory)Suggesting there's major structural inertia in housing right now. The market is unaffordable, overpriced, and cheaper to rent - and as a result homebuyers are fundamentally disinterested. On top of that - many households are now delaying family formation and electing not to have kids, which further reduces the urgency to buy. Sellers who are delisting their houses right now, in hopes of an improved market in 2026, could be making a big mistake."

1764430157144.png



We're in a for a doozey - unsure when reality will start to slap people in the face - but the data is clear as day.
 
So especially harmful to those mortgaged or heloc’d up to their eyeballs?
 
.....just sitting here waiting for my 182, 182RG, or 206 to come along. I check the sites everyday and things are cooling off. Soon will be time to make the move...
 
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Jetter2 said:
Just some added context around how BAD the housing market is.


"Pending home sales in October 2025 came in -1.2% below last year, and -27% below the long-term average. Today's contract signings are at the lowest level in 30+ years - even worse than the GFC - and showing no noticeable signs of improvement (even after 6 Fed rate cuts and a big spike in inventory)Suggesting there's major structural inertia in housing right now. The market is unaffordable, overpriced, and cheaper to rent - and as a result homebuyers are fundamentally disinterested. On top of that - many households are now delaying family formation and electing not to have kids, which further reduces the urgency to buy. Sellers who are delisting their houses right now, in hopes of an improved market in 2026, could be making a big mistake."

View attachment 147651



We're in a for a doozey - unsure when reality will start to slap people in the face - but the data is clear as day.
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The data aren’t that clear to me. Where I live (Richmond VA) home prices have risen quickly and remain high. If sales have decreased I suspect it’s lack of inventory and unwillingness of sellers to turn over properties, rather than decreased demand.
 
Hangontight said:
.....just sitting here waiting for my 182, 182RG, or 206 to come along. I check the sites everyday and things are cooling off. Soon will be time to make the move...
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Me too, just looking for a basic PA 28 that isn't run out.
 
WDD said:
I bet if you wait until you’re too old to fly you can get a real bargain.
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Meh, it's just differing degrees of price elasticity of demand. You're probably older and closer to retirement than I am; if already retired then the more so. That usually informs much of said urgency. Which is to say this isn't unique to toys. A medical diagnosis would do the same.
 
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