I’m calling the peak

Got my PPL in 77' the peak of GA production. Been riding it down ever since.
Depressing Really.
 
hindsight2020 said:
But you err in attempting to generalize your bias for that urgency by suggesting its true of consumption choices writ large.
Click to expand...
Eh, not saying one shoe fits all. Do what works for you. Folks usually do. Just offering the idea for consideration that saving $X dollars on a plane has a cost; and that is trading away not having the plane for Y years. Is that cost worth it to you? Only you know for you.

Will the economy go down at some point ? Sure, always does. Will it go back up? Sure, always does. Exactly when that all happens? Yeah, I'm skeptical of predictions, but I'm skeptical of things in general.

Best of luck with shorting this and going long on that - just remember us little folk after you've made your uber millions!
 
bonefishpete said:
Got my PPL in 77' the peak of GA production. Been riding it down ever since.
Depressing Really.
Click to expand...
Or..... you've seen and been in a peak few have ever experienced nor will. Lucky you.
 
WDD said:
Eh, not saying one shoe fits all. …
Click to expand...
This combined with the fact that discretionary spending on niche goods by definition defies macroeconomic trends best represents where the piston airplane market is headed.

We’re one TEL refinery closure away from extinction.
 
TCABM said:
We’re one TEL refinery closure away from extinction.
Click to expand...
There are already two lead free fuels available. If TEL were to suddenly vanish tomorrow, in 2050 we would look back at the event as a much needed kick in the pants to finally get alternatives made widely available.
 
The training fleet is also mostly mogas capable.

Maybe if TEL is gone there would be more people going for that STC. It is also not beyond the imagination that old engines could be retrofitted for TEL free fuel even if they don’t have 100UL or similar. Challenging yes, and expensive, but technically possible?
 
172andyou said:
There are already two lead free fuels available. If TEL were to suddenly vanish tomorrow, in 2050 we would look back at the event as a much needed kick in the pants to finally get alternatives made widely available.
Click to expand...
Yeah..... almost. One has a question on if if it is also a paint stripper, and the other is an unknown if it works on turbos. So, they're close.

I think the real kick has to be the gov banning lead. But I'll take a TEL shortage as well.

Being selfish for a second, I'd like to see what the TBO's become with lead free fuel.
 
OK - what would the TBO become if we had lead free fuel? 2000 - 3000 hrs? 4000? I doubt Continental and Lycoming will suddenly cut their sales in half by announcing that LOL, but in the "real world" I wonder what we'd see.

Other factors still matter. If a plane flies 50 hours a year or less and sits most of it's life, nothing will really help that situation.
 
WDD said:
Yeah..... almost. One has a question on if if it is also a paint stripper, and the other is an unknown if it works on turbos. So, they're close.
Click to expand...
Taking the precaution of wiping up spills of G100UL is a pretty easy fix to avoid an "extinction" level event if TEL was to disappear tomorrow.
 
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172andyou said:
Taking the precaution of wiping up spills of G100UL is a pretty easy fix to avoid a "extinction" level event if TEL was to disappear tomorrow.
Click to expand...
eh.... if I accidentally overfill, and get some fuel running in a sheet down to the wing's trailing edge, I really don't want to have to break out the haz mat cleaning supplies. I'm up on a ladder as it is for fueling.

So, IMHO we need to have a better solution. I think we'll get there.
 
SebIp said:
The training fleet is also mostly mogas capable.

Maybe if TEL is gone there would be more people going for that STC. It is also not beyond the imagination that old engines could be retrofitted for TEL free fuel even if they don’t have 100UL or similar. Challenging yes, and expensive, but technically possible?
Click to expand...

The problem isn’t usually the engine, it’s the plane fuel system. Mogas is more prone to vapor lock, and many low wing planes (like my Musketeer) can’t use it.

If you run an engine on a lower octane fuel than that required, you have to revisit the plane’s performance figures. Might require recertification, but I’m not sure.
 
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hindsight2020 said:
All points well said. I did want to highlight your bullet #1, as that was the literal case study and reason I bought the Arrow in 2013 from people who resemble your stated remarks in 2007. That time gap is important to the macro point.

This is something many of the polyannas on here will never acknowledge: to people who are incapable of seeing evolutions that take half a decade, everything is either fake or a doomer conspiracy. Housing/asset class reset second tier effects are not immediate. When and only when the street dynamic is obvious, or touches them personally, only then they turn around handwave it away as something else while pretending they never denied it. Using the fact it took 5 years as plausible deniability to a collective of equally short-attention spanned of course. I've seen this movie before, they'll never change, which is why we deserve the inflationary pain we tacitly encourage by our own collective myopia. Keep eating that marshmallow, and I'll keep dancing on the proverbial Walmart $5 bin left behind by those who play out-of-turn.
Click to expand...
There has been a steady drum beat of objectively bad news. I'm puzzled by anyone looking at jobs/hiring data, housing/homebuilder data, retail data, energy industry data, and concluding "yeah, everything is doing G-R-E-A-T!". And you really need things to be doing GREAT in order to justify valuations where they are.

The only group that is feeling insulated is the wealthier (typically older) 10% class still looking at robust 401k/brokerage account balances. Not surprisingly, that demographic is going to be over-represented on PoA as it turns out big money makes flying more accessible.
That bias should be zero percent surprising. Similarly, you could have polled 100 shoppers in the Hermès store during the peak of the GFC and been equally misled about the state of the economy.

Anywho, if brokerage balances and/or home values drop the discomfort will spread the last group. Not entirely (it's never entirely... always some who will continue to do great). I just hope that doesn't spread to the mid-west until after I sell my house :)

One thing I'm positive of is that whatever bungled, "lets-promote-moral-hazard!" response the federal reserve and government cooks up will only worsen things in the medium/long run.

re: housing... It's interesting to look at some areas like Maricopa AZ (the city, not county). It looks like every damn 5th house is for sale.
1764618221411.png
1764618169413.png
 
Also this is intentionally dramatic...
But I had to dial into a bunch of earnings calls this quarter with a co-worker and we created a shared-file compilation of all the great news. Some macro, some company specific.
Again, this is intentionally dramatic, and some (though not many) companies gave rosy outlooks. Though if you chop out AI tech/infra that number was pretty small from the sample we heard.
1764619614714.png
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Also this is intentionally dramatic...
But I had to dial into a bunch of earnings calls this quarter with a co-worker and we created a shared-file compilation of all the great news. Some macro, some company specific.
Again, this is intentionally dramatic, and some (though not many) companies gave rosy outlooks. Though if you chop out AI tech/infra that number was pretty small from the sample we heard.
View attachment 147721
Click to expand...

You missed the auto industry which, to me, is a huge tell for consumer sentiment.
deca12e9f2b342f70a143964fcbfa9d6.jpg
 
Average new car price exceeded $50k in 2025. Sound financial advice says one should have a net worth of $1M and/or a family income of $333k/yr to comfortably buy a $50k car.
 
Bill said:
Sound financial advice says one should have a net worth of $1M and/or a family income of $333k/yr to comfortably buy a $50k car.
Click to expand...
But when has America abided by such financial wisdom?
When has making sound financial decisions ever made you feel ALIVE?
Pulling into your garage with a new truck you'll soon find you can't afford, now that's the REAL ticket to happiness ;)
 
Business schools will look back at this as a lesson in "What?".

1) Complexity and costs have been added far beyond the added value IMHO. Can we live without radar warning sensors that make a replacement tail light cost over $1,000? Do we really need a computer module driving an oil pump?

2) Ford and especially GM invested billions and billions into developing electric vehicles that weren't faster, better, cheaper than what they were to replace. And thus, outside of Tesla, very few electrics are being bought. And Tesla is still and will be a niche player. They are now laying off / "right sizing" those GM and Ford operations. Those costs can only be covered by the money people spend to buy "normal" vehicles.

3) Maybe someone at Ford or GM will develop a much simplified vehicle at a noticeably lower price. Or maybe they'll go the way of Chrysler and become just a brand owned by another company.

4) The over complication of vehicle is making things more prone to failure, cost of repair higher not lower. Also degrading the skills of the mechanic. I had a torque converter start to go out on my Acura. Acura knew of this high failure rate problem, and issued a "quiet" extended warranty (it's a 2017 with 75000 miles). Dealership service guy test drove car, yep the trans kept slipping. But wouldn't do the warranty work. Why? Despite the real world evidence of the trans slipping, he said there was nothing wrong because no error code was logged in the computer. I can't make this up if I tried.
 
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You can still get a great car for half that price. The Koreans and Japanese crank out fleets of vehicles for $25K, with quality and features better than ever.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Pulling into your garage with a new truck you'll soon find you can't afford, now that's the REAL ticket to happiness ;)
Click to expand...
"You don't need to afford the things you are buying, Bryan. You need to afford the interest on the money you need to borrow in order to buy them."

 
On vehicle complexity, had a one come in with a cruise control drop out complaint. 2 full days to trace out countless circuits. Ended up being a loose ground on the power seat switch, go figure. Customer complained about paying even 1/2 the labor cost. Shop lost money. Now any odd issue like that we give it 1-2 hours max then send the vehicle down the road. These issues are becoming more common as cars age and complexity increases.

Finding techs to fix something like that forget it. Even though labor rates are in the 200-250 range good techs aren't paid enough to attract new blood. Many like me are aging out. Replacements need at least 5 years to become "experienced". Recurrent training at night or weekends in addition to 40 or more hours at work isn't attractive.

My opinion the worst thing is a mechanical item being run by a computer in rough conditions that has a designed life just good enough to get off warranty. What could go wrong?
 
Jetter2 said:
Yes - but the broader market reaction will be lower prices across the board.
Click to expand...
Your posts are really fascinating, as someone who is developing a spec house and about to add a rental mobile home to a seperate property to retain and rent.

so your prediction is over the next 6 months, interest rates come down, asset prices come down

QE gets heavily pumped into the market

BUT -> 3+ years out, interest rates go up.

Unclear from your posts is if you think asset prices will go up or go down 3-5 years out based on a lot of liquidity (tends to move assets up in nominal dollars) and high interest rates (tends to depress asset prices)

EDIT: I probably can't afford to hire your advice, but would really love your view on these things.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Don't believe anyone who claims they can predict the future and is not a billionaire.
Click to expand...
Yep, and related: It's not impressive to end up a billionaire when you start with a few hundred million from Dad. You aren't a genius. You simply won the lottery. Depending on who you believe, this represents between a quarter and half of billionaires.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Don't believe anyone who claims they can predict the future and is not a billionaire.
Click to expand...
There's quite a spectrum between routinely predicting the future and predicting select events.
When a football team is up 62 to 7 in the 4th quarter, one can predict the future outcome of the game with a high degree of certainty. The problem is: so can everyone else. Good luck turning that into wealth.
Where one makes money is finding opportunities around their inflection points where the outcome is not yet obvious to others, but with a bit of work one can become a bit more informed. Even then, sometimes you'll be wrong. Such is the nature of the future.

As 172 eludes, starting capital also makes a substantial difference on your ultimate outcome ;).

But yes, I fully concur, don't take anyone's prognostications as truth unless you're willing to lose a substantial amount of money and opportunity in the likely event that single person's single prediction is wrong.
 
WDD said:
Business schools will look back at this as a lesson in "What?".

1) Complexity and costs have been added far beyond the added value IMHO. Can we live without radar warning sensors that make a replacement tail light cost over $1,000? Do we really need a computer module driving an oil pump?

2) Ford and especially GM invested billions and billions into developing electric vehicles that weren't faster, better, cheaper than what they were to replace. And thus, outside of Tesla, very few electrics are being bought. And Tesla is still and will be a niche player. They are now laying off / "right sizing" those GM and Ford operations. Those costs can only be covered by the money people spend to buy "normal" vehicles.

3) Maybe someone at Ford or GM will develop a much simplified vehicle at a noticeably lower price. Or maybe they'll go the way of Chrysler and become just a brand owned by another company.

4) The over complication of vehicle is making things more prone to failure, cost of repair higher not lower. Also degrading the skills of the mechanic. I had a torque converter start to go out on my Acura. Acura knew of this high failure rate problem, and issued a "quiet" extended warranty (it's a 2017 with 75000 miles). Dealership service guy test drove car, yep the trans kept slipping. But wouldn't do the warranty work. Why? Despite the real world evidence of the trans slipping, he said there was nothing wrong because no error code was logged in the computer. I can't make this up if I tried.
Click to expand...

1. Regulatory capture thru legislation. See the 2008 Transportation Safety Act.
2. Regulatory capture thru emissions standards which are susceptible to shifting .gov priorities.
3. Who knows? Ford’s most profitable platform is the F-150 followed by SuperDuty. Those two platforms pay for everything else they do.
4. I don’t disagree.
 
Dabbling at best. I’ve had my eyes open for about 12 months now but prices have been above what I am able to pay at the moment. In a club at the moment so patiently waiting for the right deal.
 
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With a new job I've pushed some of my hobby aircraft sales listing work to the backburner, and haven't been able to look at it for a while. But since I'm subscribed to the VREF newsletter on valuations and get their quarterly reports, this email caught my eye.


"""
I saw a headline this week saying the pre-owned aircraft market is flourishing.

Deals are closing faster.
Pricing is stabilizing.
Buyers are active.

And I had to stop for a second.

Because either I’m looking at the wrong data… or the narrative and the market have completely disconnected.

In the latest episode of The Truth About the Market, I break down what I’m actually seeing in the numbers.

Here’s what we get into:
  • Why the “flourishing market” narrative does not match the data
  • Why lower asking prices are not bringing buyers back
  • How transaction volume can collapse even when inventory stays flat
  • Why this is not a simple supply problem
  • Why sellers are adjusting, but still chasing the market from behind
  • Why buyers are not pricing where the market is today, but where they think it is going
  • How bid-ask deadlock forms before true price discovery happens
  • Why time on market is becoming one of the clearest stress signals
  • Why long-sitting aircraft are not just “waiting for the right buyer”
  • How helicopters, older jets, turboprops, midsize aircraft, and super-mids are each showing different pressure points
  • Why some aircraft are not just depreciating, but becoming functionally obsolete
  • And why confidence, not inventory, is the real problem right now
The market is not broken.

Not yet... But it is under pressure.

And if you are buying, selling, financing, appraising, or advising on aircraft right now, this episode is worth your time.

Because the real question is not whether prices are down.

They are.
"""

So even though I pretty much completely dislike podcasts, I might actually have to listen to this one!
 
Last edited:
ArrowFlyer86 said:
With a new job I've pushed some of my hobby aircraft sales listing work to the backburner, and haven't been able to look at it for a while. But since I'm subscribed to the VREF newsletter on valuations and get their quarterly reports, this email caught my eye.


"""
I saw a headline this week saying the pre-owned aircraft market is flourishing.

Deals are closing faster.
Pricing is stabilizing.
Buyers are active.

And I had to stop for a second.

Because either I’m looking at the wrong data… or the narrative and the market have completely disconnected.

In the latest episode of The Truth About the Market, I break down what I’m actually seeing in the numbers.

Here’s what we get into:
  • Why the “flourishing market” narrative does not match the data
  • Why lower asking prices are not bringing buyers back
  • How transaction volume can collapse even when inventory stays flat
  • Why this is not a simple supply problem
  • Why sellers are adjusting, but still chasing the market from behind
  • Why buyers are not pricing where the market is today, but where they think it is going
  • How bid-ask deadlock forms before true price discovery happens
  • Why time on market is becoming one of the clearest stress signals
  • Why long-sitting aircraft are not just “waiting for the right buyer”
  • How helicopters, older jets, turboprops, midsize aircraft, and super-mids are each showing different pressure points
  • Why some aircraft are not just depreciating, but becoming functionally obsolete
  • And why confidence, not inventory, is the real problem right now
The market is not broken.

Not yet... But it is under pressure.

And if you are buying, selling, financing, appraising, or advising on aircraft right now, this episode is worth your time.

Because the real question is not whether prices are down.

They are.
"""

So even though I pretty much completely dislike podcasts, I might actually have to listen to this one!
Click to expand...

Every time you post something you had AI write, God kills a puppy.
 
Screenshot_20260528-190750.png
I wonder where piston aircraft loans fall on this chart :(
It's tough out there.
 
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TCABM said:
Probably in the same plane as signature/unsecured loans. Our purchase is an n of 1, but our negotiated price last November was the 10-day payoff quote which was 15% below asking. Seller held the plane for about nine months
Click to expand...
Curious... From the time the seller had bought it to the time they flipped it was 9m? Or they tried to sell it for 9m? Glad you all negotiated a good price.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Curious... From the time the seller had bought it to the time they flipped it was 9m? Or they tried to sell it for 9m? Glad you all negotiated a good price.
Click to expand...
Seller purchased in Feb 2025. We closed at the end of November, 2025. He actually held it less than nine months, during which time he bought a Cirrus.

Both were registered to a corporate entity that was owned by his business.
 
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