I’m calling the peak

ArrowFlyer86 said:
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I wonder where piston aircraft loans fall on this chart :(
It's tough out there.
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Well to keep adding to the anecdata, my next door neighbor's property title at the county records has now been listed under substitute trustees since Jan. Which in TX that's euphemism for puppy's getting foreclosed, though having auction dot com as one of the grantees does give away the pretense. House has sit unoccupied for years now, which has been great for us; lot lines in suburban slop housing are claustrophobic and that guy was very unpleasant to live next to. I do lament it hasn't been occupied by renters though, this housing hoarding schema is a principled issue for me but I digress.

Dum dum tried to get 2022 "I know what I got" pricing for his 2008 purchased, twice refi'd in 2020/2023, market kept telling him otherwise. Almost feel bad for the sucker realtors between 2022-2025 that had to expend labor for the open houses and nil showings....nah not really, remoras are part of the problem too. So he high tailed it to the outer modern-day slums of Austin, *bought [*financed] a trailer home next to the race track, things at the giga-doosh factory got wobbly so he likely let this house payment go.

I've seen strategic defaults in '08, this wasn't it, this was just greed-stupid default. Dude should have been paid off years ago if he wasn't so greedy. Frankly for what that house owed even after the refi, he could have sold even today at a price that would have made my property taxes happy, and still walked away clean. Letting an almost 20 year mortgage go to foreclosure is just peak rage quitting. My comps rejoice, we needed the housing cost basis jump of the last 5 years like we need pediatric cancer.

The problem is Fannie, Freddie, Joseph and out-o-wedlock Mary, along with everybody else in this rapacious financed millionaire ecosystem, is vested in this 'extend and pretend' quintessentially American BS. And since most people don't believe something is "real" unless it happens within a 2-week time span (see this thread and general GA denialism for another example), the narrative is allowed breathing room. It's easy to lampoon the critics because they get couched under the "gotcha" games of said timelines. Yeah well, there's a reason our panthera genus sleeps 16 hours a day, they got all day for that meal...
 
hindsight2020 said:
Well to keep adding to the anecdata, my next door neighbor's property title at the county records has now been listed under substitute trustees since Jan. Which in TX that's euphemism for puppy's getting foreclosed, though having auction dot com as one of the grantees does give away the pretense. House has sit unoccupied for years now, which has been great for us; lot lines in suburban slop housing are claustrophobic and that guy was very unpleasant to live next to. I do lament it hasn't been occupied by renters though, this housing hoarding schema is a principled issue for me but I digress.

Dum dum tried to get 2022 "I know what I got" pricing for his 2008 purchased, twice refi'd in 2020/2023, market kept telling him otherwise. Almost feel bad for the sucker realtors between 2022-2025 that had to expend labor for the open houses and nil showings....nah not really, remoras are part of the problem too. So he high tailed it to the outer modern-day slums of Austin, *bought [*financed] a trailer home next to the race track, things at the giga-doosh factory got wobbly so he likely let this house payment go.

I've seen strategic defaults in '08, this wasn't it, this was just greed-stupid default. Dude should have been paid off years ago if he wasn't so greedy. Frankly for what that house owed even after the refi, he could have sold even today at a price that would have made my property taxes happy, and still walked away clean. Letting an almost 20 year mortgage go to foreclosure is just peak rage quitting. My comps rejoice, we needed the housing cost basis jump of the last 5 years like we need pediatric cancer.

The problem is Fannie, Freddie, Joseph and out-o-wedlock Mary, along with everybody else in this rapacious financed millionaire ecosystem, is vested in this 'extend and pretend' quintessentially American BS. And since most people don't believe something is "real" unless it happens within a 2-week time span (see this thread and general GA denialism for another example), the narrative is allowed breathing room. It's easy to lampoon the critics because they get couched under the "gotcha" games of said timelines. Yeah well, there's a reason our panthera genus sleeps 16 hours a day, they got all day for that meal...
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Anecdotal evidence is always interesting.
I think the trend has become big enough now where we aren't limited to only anecdotes, the skew is showing up in aggregate behavior.
There's always exceptions to the rule, but the new rule seems to be: "buyers market". Sellers might need to take a gut punch with a mark-down or risk not selling, or in the worst case becoming like your neighbor. That's just signing up for maximum financial punishment.

As for geo breakout, this is as of 2 months ago.
1780258084323.png

In aggregate...
1780258193059.png
*charts from Rocket/Redfin

Been reading more about people listing their houses, getting discouraged by the lack of interest and then eventually just delisting.
 
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Any recent updates. I’m seeing planes sitting longer on marketplaces.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Been reading more about people listing their houses, getting discouraged by the lack of interest and then eventually just delisting.
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I periodically, out of curiosity, watch this guy’s YouTube videos. He seems to have access to a lot of data, but is, after all, selling a subscription service.

 
Cessna just crossed 1000 single engine listings on TAP. A couple years ago it was closer to half that.
 
TCABM said:
Asking price and selling price are two different things.
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Yeah... the more I tracked prices the more I started to care about listing age and inventory counts, because the asking prices are all over the place.
It's more informative to know there's 2x as many aircraft for sale, and aircraft spend an extra 2 months waiting to be sold, than just seeing another clown listed his 1970s 172 for $250k asking px lol.
 
Data point: It took 3 weeks to sell my 172. Used TAP and Barnstomers. Controller just seemed very... slimy? And wanted $500 for a listing.
Now looking for a new-to-me plane.
 
UngaWunga said:
Data point: It took 3 weeks to sell my 172. Used TAP and Barnstomers. Controller just seemed very... slimy? And wanted $500 for a listing.
Now looking for a new-to-me plane.
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Another data point: 10 weeks to sell my RV9A. I used Barnstormers. I can't see $500 for a listing. Barnstormers is 1/10 of that. I am convinced that 98% of airplane shoppers check all of the big sales sites regularly, especially TAP and Barnstormers.
 
Inflation adjusted peaked: october 2023 for piston singles as a cohort. Yes, they have declined inflation-adjusted since, though insignifcantly, hence the clown pricing in 2026. But that doesn't matter because...

...as @TCABM highlights: that's just listing price. Which means the square root of [redacted ] all when there's little in the way of transactions taking place, specifically on public listings. Pocket listings is a different matter, and my theory of the case is that's really where the inventory is moving. Which doesn't help those of us not in the "friends and family plan" of this low-inventory hobby, but I digress.

Days-on-list isn't a secret, most public listing clowns are just placing standing listings and rage de-listing every 60ish days. Price discovery is str8 trash in the public listings, as they all price match regardless of condition like lemmings, and predictably nothing moves.

I respectfully tried to make inroads to some price discovery by making blind bids last month and yeah, that got old quick. The level of rudeness was wild. The brokers were the most professional ones, one of them took the opportunity to converse for a bit once I explained my point about price discovery, and he shared his backup offers were circa 10% under list (mine was of course well under that). The private sellers were just a wild ride of insults or rude one liners, no effort to counteroffer. Which tells me there's no legitimate interest in selling in earnest beyond a 2022 FOMO cash grab hoping some starry eyed sucker who doesn't know what they're bidding on, bites on their bucket of deferred/undisclosed mx time bomb. Most informed non-1st time buyers are naturally steering clear of these listings; they're just radar chaff tbh.

The macroeconomics of post-2020 M2 ensure no asset class will be allowed to reset dramatically. Thumb on the scale all the way to the end. Extend and pretend, the American way. Everything is largely frozen, until the AI circular financing potemkin village goes POP. The bond market just gave the Treasury the finger, there will be no significant lowering of borrowing costs without putting inflation back into politically 3rd rail levels.

As such, the holders of these assets are not induced by carriage costs, as most of those are variable so they can be deferred, and their capex was incurred when life was cheap, so ditto. What will release inventory is therefore, their 401ks. That's why the macroeconomics of AI bubble are of bigger import here. Also much closer to impacting upper middle payroll, especially IT payroll which is overrepresented in this hobby. That's how you'll get a cascade of inventory. But as long as the Fed continues to put their thumb on the scale to avoid stock market correction, the consumer economy of high end toys will continue to stay frozen. 5 years is nothing in that context.

Personally I don't see this little AI hat trick lasting the current administration, but yes we will see more of this earned income class theft (inflation) continue unchallenged well into 2028. As I said before, things like fuel prices don't move the needle, because the cost is variable, and these things are largely already sitting, or being listed the day after getting them out of the barn they sat for 8 to 20 years (I've seen listings with logs reflecting that literal level of disuse, asking price: over $120K, just like the rest of the category listings regardless of condition...time wasters).
 
hindsight2020 said:
I respectfully tried to make inroads to some price discovery by making blind bids last month and yeah, that got old quick. The level of rudeness was wild. The brokers were the most professional ones, one of them took the opportunity to converse for a bit once I explained my point about price discovery, and he shared his backup offers were circa 10% under list (mine was of course well under that). The private sellers were just a wild ride of insults or rude one liners, no effort to counteroffer. Which tells me there's no legitimate interest in selling in earnest beyond a 2022 FOMO cash grab hoping some starry eyed sucker who doesn't know what they're bidding on, bites on their bucket of deferred/undisclosed mx time bomb. Most informed non-1st time buyers are naturally steering clear of these listings; they're just radar chaff tbh.
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I didn't experience any of that. Sure I got some lowball offers, that's to be expected. Also dealt with someone who wanted to give me bitcoins, with some extra for my troubles. But also talked to quite a few people, had some fun conversations about flying, and ended up happy with the sale in the end. Maybe its your sunny disposition?
 
UngaWunga said:
I didn't experience any of that. Sure I got some lowball offers, that's to be expected. Also dealt with someone who wanted to give me bitcoins, with some extra for my troubles. But also talked to quite a few people, had some fun conversations about flying, and ended up happy with the sale in the end. Maybe its your sunny disposition?
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Glad you had a pleasant experience selling. Hope buying is the same.
IDK what you're buying or what you're bidding, but I'll say if you're showing up with offers substantially below an inflated asking price, it won't take long to stumble across a seller who is less than pleased to hear from you -- and lets you know it :)
 
I have become friends with a plane broker and watched him in action. He is adept at spotting people who need to sell but are in denial. Several times I have seen him casually drop an offer for 50% off and get the deal.

His secret is he doesn't care. There will always be another plane to buy. Plus he is super friendly about it.

If you bring a truckload of anxiety to the process, it will not be fun or successful.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Glad you had a pleasant experience selling. Hope buying is the same.
IDK what you're buying or what you're bidding, but I'll say if you're showing up with offers substantially below an inflated asking price, it won't take long to stumble across a seller who is less than pleased to hear from you -- and lets you know it :)
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My recent selling experience was pleasant also. Sold for 97% of asking price. The buyer came from a long way off and hired a mechanic to come with. They asked if I could provide a set of tools for the inspection and to make myself available for a test flight which I did. Very smooth transaction.

My recent purchase wasn't quite as smooth. Found an aircraft I really liked but thought it was priced "optimistically". Made an offer at approx. 87%. Seller grumbled a bit but agreed to send a purchase agreement (at my offer price) about a week later. I signed and returned it but then I waited for the seller to reciprocate and send me the completed document with his signature. Then I waited some more. After another 10 days, I learned that the seller had found another buyer. Did not ask for a counter offer from me. Did not let me know the new development. Just sold the aircraft. To be expected I guess. Business.

Found another (less nice) example a couple of weeks later. Much closer to me. Much much less expensive, an active flyer but some deferred maintenance. It flew beautifully on my checkout lessons and the flight home. Currently in for annual. I guess I'll know pretty soon how good of a deal it was. ;)
 
Ed Haywood said:
I have become friends with a plane broker and watched him in action. He is adept at spotting people who need to sell but are in denial. Several times I have seen him casually drop an offer for 50% off and get the deal.

His secret is he doesn't care. There will always be another plane to buy. Plus he is super friendly about it.
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The oldest trick in the book to buy something cheap is to make friends with a needy seller, make him understand you really like him and what he’s selling, then make a super low ball offer in a very friendly and collegial way. It’s the pros technique, and my choice has been to avoid pros when buying or selling. With hobby vehicles it feels a lot better to trade fairly either way, and while you might lose a few cents you can look at yourself in the mirror.
 
Tusayan said:
With hobby vehicles it feels a lot better to trade fairly either way
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In any negotiation, I find there are two types of people: those who view it as a means to an end, and those who see it as a contest. IMO people who inject a lot of angst and pressure into the process tend to lose sight of the end game.

Planes are tough because there is a lot of uncertainty to the value. You can buy what seems like a sweet deal and then lose your rear end on maintenance surprises. That fear skews your judgement on your first dance.

I still remember my first attempt to buy. It was an Aeronca Champ in 1999. Immaculate airplane. The owner was a retired airline pilot who had babied it for years. He was asking $20K. I offered $16K. We went back and forth for a week with neither of us being willing to budge. Wiser older me would have paid the ask and flown the pants off it.

43548.jpg
 
Ed Haywood said:
In any negotiation, I find there are two types of people: those who view it as a means to an end, and those who see it as a contest. IMO people who inject a lot of angst and pressure into the process tend to lose sight of the end game.

Planes are tough because there is a lot of uncertainty to the value. You can buy what seems like a sweet deal and then lose your rear end on maintenance surprises. That fear skews your judgement on your first dance.

I still remember my first attempt to buy. It was an Aeronca Champ in 1999. Immaculate airplane. The owner was a retired airline pilot who had babied it for years. He was asking $20K. I offered $16K. We went back and forth for a week with neither of us being willing to budge. Wiser older me would have paid the ask and flown the pants off it.
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I agree. Injecting emotions into a business deal is never productive but can be difficult to avoid. I generally don't like realtors and airplane brokers because many(not all) are less than honest. Let's face it, their priorities are generally different than the buyer's or seller's. They mainly want to close the deal, get their commission, move on. But they do allow the buyer and seller to communicate (through them) without becoming emotional. That is a big plus. I remember selling a house (years ago) without a realtor. After listening to prospective buyers nitpick every detail of a home I was proud of, I would get to a point where I wouldn't want to deal with them at any price. That is not a helpful mindset.

@Ed Haywood looking back, I can think of several similar deals that I walked away from out of stubborness... now that i am wiser, I understand that both parties in a transaction want to and should feel good about it afterward. If at all possible...
 
edo2000 said:
I generally don't like realtors and airplane brokers because many(not all) are less than honest.
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The reason I generally bypass brokered units is not personal, it's just because I can't as readily bid the airplane low enough to pay the owner, the broker, and the state, when my opportunity cost to bypass is much lower as a resident of a recreational exemption sale state. I've always been able to get the dealer to eat the sales taxes on autos, for instance. The airplane toy space is too small for that to be a practical negotiating point.

Of course, it becomes impossible for me to communicate to the seller that I'd be willing to meet his full asking if he just got the broker off the transaction, when he chose to anonimize his interaction in the first place by involving a broker. Ultimately that's his loss of market share as a seller, it's all good. From where I sit, middlemen and rent-seeking are the problem with a LOT of thing in the US. Remoras are grinding our lives to a halt.
 
hindsight2020 said:
The reason I generally bypass brokered units is not personal, it's just because I can't as readily bid the airplane low enough to pay the owner, the broker, and the state, when my opportunity cost to bypass is much lower as a resident of a recreational exemption sale state. I've always been able to get the dealer to eat the sales taxes on autos, for instance. The airplane toy space is too small for that to be a practical negotiating point.

Of course, it becomes impossible for me to communicate to the seller that I'd be willing to meet his full asking if he just got the broker off the transaction, when he chose to anonimize his interaction in the first place by involving a broker. Ultimately that's his loss of market share as a seller, it's all good. From where I sit, middlemen and rent-seeking are the problem with a LOT of thing in the US. Remoras are grinding our lives to a halt.
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Yeah, I remember a particularly frustrating broker situation when I was shopping for an RV-7 or -9. There were two very nice examples within 200 miles of me, in different cities, listed by the same broker. I called the guy and asked when I might be able to come see the aircraft. He informed me that I would need to sign a purchase agreement/with my offer first(and put money in escrow), based on his published description of the aircraft. I asked- what if I don't like what I see, when I actually get near the aircraft? He said that I could explain any discrepancies I found that weren't disclosed by him and proceed on that basis..! When I told him that he was alienating me, who was a motivated buyer with cash in hand- it didn't seem to phase him at all. I gave up on dealing with him.

My theory is that many of these brokers are nowhere near the aircraft they are promoting and they don't want the hassle of actually leaving their offices, until it is unavoidable. And like you say, I had no way to let the seller(s) know that their broker was seriously letting them down.
 
edo2000 said:
He informed me that I would need to sign a purchase agreement/with my offer first(and put money in escrow), based on his published description of the aircraft.
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Are there really enough people who would do that so the broker could exist?
 
WDD said:
Are there really enough people who would do that so the broker could exist?
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FWIW: You might be surprised by is the percentage of Part 91 recreational aircraft that are sold through brokers. What you are hearing here represents only a small fraction of that market. And for context, most aircraft to include helicopters above the recreational buyer are handled through brokers/dealers, which is why there is a separate Part 47 process for dealers to facilitate that process.
 
WDD said:
Are there really enough people who would do that so the broker could exist?
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That was my question also. I had not heard of such a thing before. I pictured trying to develop some legal language to get my own money back out of escrow. It probably wouldn't have been that difficult to terminate the process but I was unwilling to learn more about it. I just wanted to look at the aircraft! I couldn't believe this guy, who supposedly was making his living selling airplanes, was refusing to show them to me...
 
Bell206 said:
FWIW: You might be surprised by is the percentage of Part 91 recreational aircraft that are sold through brokers. What you are hearing here represents only a small fraction of that market. And for context, most aircraft to include helicopters above the recreational buyer are handled through brokers/dealers, which is why there is a separate Part 47 process for dealers to facilitate that process.
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Aircraft sold through brokers I understand. A person who would sign a purchase agreement without an inspection I don't get.
 
WDD said:
Aircraft sold through brokers I understand. A person who would sign a purchase agreement without an inspection I don't get.
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Actually, I guess it depends on the wording of the agreement. I very recently bought a Bonanza (through a broker, believe it or not...). It was several states away and I was working. I found a local(to the aircraft) helicopter A&P/IA who also owned a Bonanza, to do a remote pre-buy and test flight for me. The seller (communicating through the broker) was unwilling to allow the inspection/compression checks/retract test/test flight, etc. without an offer/purchase agreement and a *large* escrow deposit from me. I guess he was trying to determine if I was serious. The broker said this was S.O.P. I confirmed with the aviation escrow company that unless I signed a second document accepting the aircraft after inspection, the money would automatically revert to me, less a small charge for the escrow agent. The deal went down as expected. I'll know in a year or so if I got a good deal. ;)
 
WDD said:
A person who would sign a purchase agreement without an inspection I don't get.
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It falls back to the experience or knowledge of the buyer. Again you're only seeing a small portion of the market here and on other forums. There are still many aircraft transactions that happen with no inspection, no purchase agreement, and on a handshake. Quite a few of rec aircraft sold are not even advertised and get sold through word-of-mouth, especially when you get to the upper 25% or top-shelf offering out there. Where a majority of the negative stuff you hear about resides is at the lower end of the spectrum where price or cost is the main driver vs the aircraft itself.
 
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