I’m calling the peak

This type of aircraft has been discussed on here in the past, but there’s currently a 180 hp Lark (Aero Commander) for sale for only $55k. The cruise speed is less stellar than the 160 hp Skyhawk, but more importantly is how is the parts availability? And also finding an A&P that can maintain it?
 
charheep said:
The days of a sub-100k plane are almost over. Average 172 prices are $128k!
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In the sector I've been stalking passively for 4 years and actively for almost 2, asking prices can already be found below 100k. It's still outrageously expensive for what they are, and the open listings are sitting junk. These sellers are merely trying to obfuscate the turd and pawn it off as they attempt to "organic sell" (loss of medical is the leader, looking at my multiple negotiations with these folks for the past 18 months).

For my part, the biggest obstacle/aversion to getting back in, is singularly the powerplant situation in this hobby. The all-in price of the aircraft just cannot be negotiated to address the present labor and parts circumstances that these powerplants impose. Two potential sales I've lost this year at a price I would have otherwise had agreed to (both below 100K mind you), on account of these powerplant pricing impasses. It's a hot potato, and nobody wants to get stuck with it. The problem for these sellers is that the financed suckers who don't know a thing about lawnmower engine inflation, the ones who normally eat that problem-shifting, are tapped out. Those of us who are well-seasoned on the matter are obviously not biting at the asking prices, so the airplanes sit and rot. List, de-list, repeat ad nauseam. In fairness, some airplanes are moving, but it's all pocket listings. Problem with pocket listings is that it's a big effing club, and most of us are not in it. In that regard, public inventory doesn't paint the true picture, as it's the shadow inventory that moves, the public listing stuff is overpriced FOMO junk.
 
hindsight2020 said:
In the sector I've been stalking passively for 4 years and actively for almost 2, asking prices can already be found below 100k. It's still outrageously expensive for what they are, and the open listings are sitting junk. These sellers are merely trying to obfuscate the turd and pawn it off as they attempt to "organic sell" (loss of medical is the leader, looking at my multiple negotiations with these folks for the past 18 months).

For my part, the biggest obstacle/aversion to getting back in, is singularly the powerplant situation in this hobby. The all-in price of the aircraft just cannot be negotiated to address the present labor and parts circumstances that these powerplants impose. Two potential sales I've lost this year at a price I would have otherwise had agreed to (both below 100K mind you), on account of these powerplant pricing impasses. It's a hot potato, and nobody wants to get stuck with it. The problem for these sellers is that the financed suckers who don't know a thing about lawnmower engine inflation, the ones who normally eat that problem-shifting, are tapped out. Those of us who are well-seasoned on the matter are obviously not biting at the asking prices, so the airplanes sit and rot. List, de-list, repeat ad nauseam. In fairness, some airplanes are moving, but it's all pocket listings. Problem with pocket listings is that it's a big effing club, and most of us are not in it. In that regard, public inventory doesn't paint the true picture, as it's the shadow inventory that moves, the public listing stuff is overpriced FOMO junk.
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So if I'm understanding correctly, you're not going to buy the aforementioned $750k Cessna 210? :p

The powerplant is definitely the big hot potato. Doesn't matter if you're a financed-millionaire or not, actually. Most people buying a $100-200k plane don't relish the opportunity to spend anywhere from 6-24 months of downtime and becoming 50-100k$ poorer (depending on the engine in question) while they wait for an overhaul/remanufactured or new engine. I suspect that's why there's a lot of people who do listings these days to try and allay these concerns. And I noticed starting a couple years ago an increase in people that instead of listing SMOH times will list STOH times, or "Since IRAN" times. Or they'll include a quick pitch about: "I know it's high time but the engine is bullet proof and it runs great!" or "strong running engine with GREAT compressions!!". I always see those comments and think of them as the aviation version of Baghdad Bob.
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And I write that knowing I may well be that guy when I sell!

And occasionally you even get gems like this (for a 100k$ Piper Arrow). Not saying the airplane is bad, but some people are just deeply out of touch with reality. Engines, airframes the whole lot.
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hindsight2020 said:
For my part, the biggest obstacle/aversion to getting back in, is singularly the powerplant situation in this hobby. The all-in price of the aircraft just cannot be negotiated to address the present labor and parts circumstances that these powerplants impose. Two potential sales I've lost this year at a price I would have otherwise had agreed to (both below 100K mind you), on account of these powerplant pricing impasses. It's a hot potato, and nobody wants to get stuck with it. The problem for these sellers is that the financed suckers who don't know a thing about lawnmower engine inflation, the ones who normally eat that problem-shifting, are tapped out. Those of us who are well-seasoned on the matter are obviously not biting at the asking prices, so the airplanes sit and rot. List, de-list, repeat ad nauseam. In fairness, some airplanes are moving, but it's all pocket listings. Problem with pocket listings is that it's a big effing club, and most of us are not in it. In that regard, public inventory doesn't paint the true picture, as it's the shadow inventory that moves, the public listing stuff is overpriced FOMO junk.
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The engine comments are spot on. While waiting for McCauley to get around to manufacturing a fixed pitch DCM 6950 propeller (mine failed annual inspection due to corrosion in bolt holes) I've decided to have my O-200 overhauled, even knowing that the combined price of the new propeller and overhaul will exceed the value of the plane. Other than the "typical" little Continental oil leaks the engine was running fine, good compressions, oil and filter analysis at just over 1800 hours. The engine shop says approximately 8 months to completion (assuming the crank is OK, fingers crossed) which will still beat McCauley's estimate for the prop. When it comes time to sell the sales price will be giving away either the plane of the engine/prop, assuming prices don't tank before then.
 
DMD3. said:
This type of aircraft has been discussed on here in the past, but there’s currently a 180 hp Lark (Aero Commander) for sale for only $55k. The cruise speed is less stellar than the 160 hp Skyhawk, but more importantly is how is the parts availability? And also finding an A&P that can maintain it?
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I wondered about that as well when I saw the listing. Definitely piqued my interest for a moment.
 
It will be interesting to see if the top end (as defined earlier), say >200K pistons slow down while the bottom end potentially increases, both from people buying less than they might have (me) and potential market affects from the MOSAIC rule changes that might make more small, legacy pistons approachable by many, many more people. It was one of the factors in choosing the plane I did (besides it seeming a good fit for my mission, budget, and experience levels).
 
MIFlyer said:
It will be interesting to see if the top end (as defined earlier), say >200K pistons slow down while the bottom end potentially increases, both from people buying less than they might have (me) and potential market affects from the MOSAIC rule changes that might make more small, legacy pistons approachable by many, many more people. It was one of the factors in choosing the plane I did (besides it seeming a good fit for my mission, budget, and experience levels).
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The thing is, if high demand increases prices on the low end, the higher end is pushed up as well. With the huge demand and insane prices for trainers, my airplane (M20R, definitely nothing near a trainer!) roughly doubled in value for a while. If you can sell your formerly-$40K C172 for $120K, then you have the money to step up to a C182 for example, so the demand for, and price of, the C182 increases as well, and on up the line.

It was enough that I thought about selling the plane for a hot second. Then I thought about what it would be like to not have a plane and decided to keep it. I'm also right on the corner of the price-performance curve, so it's really hard to justify moving to a different plane!
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
that wouldn't be the new proposed spar AD could it? That only came out recently. And affects more than just the -28.
Just wondering.
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I was pretty set on having a piper in consideration when buying (it was between a Dakota and a C182) and the proposed expansion of the AD definitely pushed me towards a 182
 
Nikhiln25 said:
I was pretty set on having a piper in consideration when buying (it was between a Dakota and a C182) and the proposed expansion of the AD definitely pushed me towards a 182
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Although, depending on the plane and its history going Piper may mean a really good deal. We’ll see if this AD becomes real as written. We’re considering selling our Archer and replacing it with a 182 simply because our mission has changed enough a 182 is a much better fit.
 
Haven't seen much movement in pricing for months.

I did see an article in WSJ discussing how homes are taking longer to sell and decided to take a peek for aircraft, and lo-and-behold it appears planes are also taking ~1 month longer on average as well compared to same time last yr.
If you're selling a Cessna 150 though, those still sell like hotcakes, it seems.
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From WSJ there was an interesting chart on the regional differences of home supply for sale.
Not related to aircraft but interesting given how much FL/TX built up housing during the COVID boom.
1741638616544.png
 
WDD said:
FIFY. I bought June 2024

Given the market drop today, demand might be softening
:yikes:
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Yeah... it's interesting financial times. Is this just precautionary reaction to tariffs, or will the tariffs themselves turn out to be the black swan of what feels like a perpetually frothy market?

If the latter, then the best time in over a decade to buy a plane (or boat, or private island... or VOO) might be right around the corner.
 
traumamed said:
If the latter, then the best time in over a decade to buy a plane (or boat, or private island... or VOO) might be right around the corner.
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Problem is that thesis was pretty much the foundational basis for this thread!
And the thread was started... *looks at watch* quite some time ago. It's the sell off that never arrives :)
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
I’m sticking with my opinion back in post #938, there will be a leveling, or softening, but no drastic drop. You won’t regret your purchase.
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All joking aside, I agree with this. And not just on airplanes, but across all market segments. It takes 25% more dollars to buy anything today compared to prices of goods in 2019. Barring a calamity more severe than the Great Depression, that 25% is never coming out of the price of anything.

Regardless, I find it amusing that we stress so much about the cost and value of our toys. They are toys. Not investments. Lol.

Recently, my son spent six months worth of savings on a dirt bike. Six months is an eternity for an eight-year-old. He loves that thing, and rides it like he stole it. I've heard all kinds of stories of the adventures he has had on it. What I haven't heard are questions about whether he paid too much for the bike, whether it is worth less today than it was when he bought it three months ago, or what it will sell for in a year when he outgrows it. Astonishing, I know! Sometimes I want to be more like my eight-year-old and less like the miserly, stressed out 40-year-old I turned into at some undefined point in the 21st century.
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
You won’t regret your purchase.
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Copy that. Even if resale drops, I’m still enjoying it.

Nothing about this hobby is about coming out financially ahead, so worry less about current plane prices.

The old saying: Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now so you can start enjoying it.
 
The current value of a purchased, well, anything, is immaterial unless you need to sell it or use it for collateral. If you're using it, enjoying it and can afford it, do so! Be it a house, plane, boat, car, motorcycle, guitar, whatever!
 
GeorgeC said:
@ArrowFlyer86, are we there yet? :)
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Negative :)

There's approximately +31% more aircraft for sale than a year ago.
On average asking prices are +2.6% higher than 1 year ago.
The gains in counts and pricing are not evenly distributed.

Aircraft that have seen the biggest growth in # of listings (by count):
C172: +55% more
PA28 (-140, -160, -180): +71% more
Beech 35: +82% more
Beech 36: +92% more
Comanche: +71% (suffers base effect but to a smaller extent than Archer)
Archer: +235% (suffers base effect cuz small starting #)

Pricing trends are not very exciting.

Other observations:
On average, aircraft sit for considerably longer before selling (had another thread further upstream that addressed that). It's not unlike the aggregate trends seen in housing. There are many exceptions and some sell quickly. Unsurprisingly, those that are priced most expensive in their categories are more likely to languish for a long time.

The airplane that sells in no-time pretty much? The venerable, mighty Cessna 150. If you have one of those, that seems to be by far the most "liquid" aircraft available.
 
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Boat dealers here are flooded with new inventory. Car dealers too. Lot of toys on the market. Planes no different.
I expect the flying schools to slow way down too as the airlines pull back.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
…
Aircraft that have seen the biggest growth in # of listings (by count):
C172: +55% more
PA28 (-140, -160, -180): +71% more
….
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Those two are the models I would most expect to be on leasebacks that are no longer economical from a student demand perspective.
 
I may have said this before but the data completely misses the unlisted market, obviously. I sold my PA32 in a day for list price. Those models sell so well you don't have to list them (assuming you've taken care of them and given them a little panel love).
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
I may have said this before but the data completely misses the unlisted market, obviously. I sold my PA32 in a day for list price. Those models sell so well you don't have to list them (assuming you've taken care of them and given them a little panel love).
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Yep, misses the unlisted market. Can't measure what you can't see.

Though I think selling in a day for asking price, unlisted, is the exception, not the rule. (that's a guess)
 
Ashara Keliyn said:
I have noticed large uptick in $300k and above listings.
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Interesting. Anecdotally I would have thought the same thing just based on gut feel from manually perusing the listings. But I just checked and the data doesn't entirely support that.

In total numbers, yeah, it's grown a bit (cuz they're +30% more aggregate listings so an increase in raw number of listings is expected).
But as a proportion of the aircraft for sale it's been virtually static.

1 year ago listings >=300k made up 26.8% of the universe.
Today listings >=$300k make up 26.4% of the universe.

There might be a threshold at which there has been a big uptick, but $300k may not be it.
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
I may have said this before but the data completely misses the unlisted market, obviously. I sold my PA32 in a day for list price. Those models sell so well you don't have to list them (assuming you've taken care of them and given them a little panel love).
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I bought my Bonanza from a guy in my flying club before he had advertised. I was doing an FR with the club instructor, mentioned I was about to buy one, and he said he thought a member was considering selling.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Yep, misses the unlisted market. Can't measure what you can't see.

Though I think selling in a day for asking price, unlisted, is the exception, not the rule. (that's a guess)
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I don't know if you'd call it "unlisted" but it never got to the aviation sites - A friend of mine put his 172 up on Facebook Marketplace and it was sold in 20 minutes.
 
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