I think back to scale. Today’s EV (hybrid, plug in hybrid, and all electric) fleet is about 1% of the entire fleet of registered vehicles in the US. Twenty years ago, the fleet was only about 20% smaller. I think we’re still in the early adopter stage, even with 5% of all new vehicles sales being some form of EV. There’s a long way to go to scale it.
Tesla Model 3 - Finally.
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Larry in TN
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I finished the sentence. The switch from ICE to EV shifts the energy used by vehicles from gasoline/diesel to electricity but the overall energy used to power an EV is less than that used by an ICE vehicle because the EV is more efficient than a comparable ICE vehicle and the energy conversion is more efficient in a power plant than in an ICE vehicle's engine. As the percentage of EVs in the fleet grows, the amount of energy used for vehicle propulsion decreases (mile for mile).
It will take a long time which will give time for the grid to grow, as it always has. For the foreseeable future, there will be plenty of grid capacity during off-peak times to handle the load.
The stated goal is to have 50% of new cars (vehicles?) delivered to be EVs by 2030. It will take a decade after that before 50% of the vehicles on the road will be EV.
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I routinely charge my Model S for 12 hrs a day. On a work week (7 shifts) I charge roughly 10 hrs (work) and 10hrs (home) each day. 140 hrs of charging in a week. Probably using around 600 KWHs a month.
tspear
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Timothy
How far are you driving a day? And what is the charge speed. For that many hours charging, using only 600 KWH a month is not a very good charge rate.
Tim
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I average 43 miles per day. I only use the level 1 that came with the car at 3-4 miles per hour.
Larry in TN
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Level 1 is charging at 12A. That's similar to running a hair dryer.
GaryM
Pattern Altitude
For 11 hours.
Larry in TN
En-Route
Yes. Not a significant load. No need to time shift that.
I would think most EV owners are doing Level 2 charging at home on a 240v outlet. That would be one to two hours per night for someone doing an average amount of driving. The most popular outlet to install is the NEMA 14-50 on a 50A circuit but the cars generally max out around 30A to 32A on mobile connectors--Tesla does 32A. You can bump that up to as much as 48A with the wall connectors on a 60A circuit but that would drop your daily charging time down to an hour, or less. A standard dryer outlet at 30A will provide 24A charging draw which is plenty for almost all EV owners with home charging who want to charge during off-peak hours.
Cost runs around 20% to 30% of what it would have cost to drive the same distance in an ICE vehicle.
FastEddieB
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Fast Eddie B
I tap off of my hangar door feed. 240v @ 30A. About 22-24 mph of charge, virtually always restoring a day’s driving in about 2 to 4 hours overnight.
I think we can stipulate that charging an EV adds to the load on the grid, however large or small that may be. One offset to consider is that as more of the fleet goes EV, gas pumps will inevitably be decommissioned, with a bit less load from pumping gas. Not to mention the savings from fewer gas stations overall.
I think we can stipulate that charging an EV adds to the load on the grid, however large or small that may be. One offset to consider is that as more of the fleet goes EV, gas pumps will inevitably be decommissioned, with a bit less load from pumping gas. Not to mention the savings from fewer gas stations overall.
The grid challenge is about base load and demand shifts. While more variable alternative (solar/wind, similar tech) generation capacity has been added, that variable capacity doesn’t usually generate at off peak times because it can’t magically be dispatched when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.
That leaves thermal generation or drawing from stored variable generation excesses, a capability that does not exist in the US today. For economic reasons, generators are divesting themselves of thermal generation capacity while investing in variable capacity. Effectively, US base load capacity is shrinking relative to future requirements because of that and the regulatory environment.
End state, base load capacity has to increase to future new demand requirements. Given that today it takes a decade to get a new base load plant up and running on raw land, there is a legitimate risk off peak rates disappear as dispatchable thermal will need to fill the gaps when other variables generators can’t.
That’s a long winded way of saying there’s no such thing as a free lunch.
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EdFred
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Rolling brownouts for everyone!
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And with only 5 % EVs on the road, California is proving that transitioning to a mostly renewable grid isn’t going to cut it.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ev-adoption-behavioral-changes-101718236.html
No doubt right now with 1% EVs on the road our grid can easily handle it. My problem is, to put it mildly, over ambitious plans of 50% EV sales by 2030. It’s similar to making a policy of new cars averaging 51 MPG by 2025. Knew that was unrealistic as well. Right now our grid can handle worst case, or what I’d like to call realistic case, of 10% EVs on the road. Best case or basically smart charging during low grid strain (nights) times could add that to close to 30% EVs on the road. As Congressman Massie stated, we’d have to have a massive restructuring of the current grid in the next 7 1/2 years. Call me pessimistic but I just don’t think it’s gonna happen.
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Ghery
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Ghery Pettit
Just a quick update -
We've now got just over 9000 miles on the Ford. It's been across the state3 times in the last month and a half between my high school class's 50th reunion (delayed 2 years), my wife's high school class 50th reunion (yes, I married my high school sweetheart) and my professional society's annual symposium (the first face to face one we've had since 2019). The Ford is now averaging over 40 mpg between highway and city. The adaptive cruise control will bring it to a full stop behind a car stopping on the freeway ahead of us. That feature would have saved us last October, however it wasn't available in 2013. I get a kick out of posts on Facebook claiming that you should buy a new car if gas is too expensive. Wrong answer, buying a new car for that reason alone makes no sense, but if you are already on the market for new one, get a fuel efficient car if it meets your other needs. We are getting over 10 mpg better fuel economy than we did with the 2013 Escape, but the savings wouldn't have paid for the new car if that was the only reason for getting it. Just a "happy" result in our case.
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Velocity173
Big EV tax incentives starting on the first of the year. A little too restrictive on car price and salary cap but it’s better than nothing.
bnt83
Final Approach
I'm averaging a whopping 7500 miles per year, I was chewing on a new Prius Prime plug-in hybrid at $36,300ish, just looking at the tax bill alone over the first 11 years of ownership would be over $8k, that does not pay for loan interest, full coverage insurance, garage rental (needed to get a place to plug it into, 110 volt only), gas, or maintenance.
A friend of mine just sent a windshield replacement to insurance claim, on a freaking Mazda sedan, it was over $1200 for the parts, labor and lane departure reprogramming required to be performed by a Mazda dealer. A different friend of mine needs a new windshield in his newer Tahoe, its the same story, around $1200 out the door. I just got two windshields installed in two Grand Marquis for $220 each. I put 4 new 80k mile tires on for $500 last year, sister in law spent that much on one ruined tire for her new car.
My supervisor has a Passat that was caught up in the Diesel Gate emissions scandal, says that after the software "fix" he cannot drive over 80 MPH or it messes up the DEF quantity system, and the DEF system runs till depleted car goes into limp mode and cannot be reset without a trip to the dealer at $300. This guys is 20 year veteran aircraft mechanic and has salvaged cars and rebuilt them from a wrecking yard for a hobby.
New cars seem stupid to me, and they just keep getting worse with crap that will set off the $ light on the dash, great for mechanics working in state safety inspection areas. What's next? Bad tire pressure sensor disables the starter? Replacing the starter requires a trip to the dealer to program it to the powertrain control module?
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Larry in TN
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I don't get it. There's no shortage of people who want to buy EVs so why should the government incentivize them?
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Bob Noel
Do not apply logic and reason to government thinking.
(I'm actually being serious)
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Velocity173
Out in Cali maybe but a large number say tax incentives are key for them.
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2022-consumer-reports-ev-survey-incentives/
In my neck of the woods, very few of my friends are interested. EVs are politicized and don’t align with their conservative values. A few are interested in the EV trucks but once you look at the cost of a Rivian even the EV F150, ICE makes more sense. Gotta new F150 Lightning that just showed up at my local dealer for $90K. I can get the V8 for $62K or save even more for the Eco Boost V6 at $59K.
The incentives could be the tipping point for some but there are so many restrictions for next year, it doesn’t make much sense. I don’t remember the exact numbers but the $75K a year single filer salary cap eliminates me from the get go. If a single person is making less than $75K a year, they’d better give them incentives to buy a $50K plus EV or it’s gonna put a strain on their finances. Perhaps used is best for some but the $4,000 incentive for used has a cap of $25K for the car. Unless you’re buying a Bolt, that’s a useless incentive. The one good thing about the incentive is you take it off the car immediately upon purchase. That at least streamlines the process over filing it on taxes.
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Velocity173
Just downloaded the new software upgrade tonight. Finally got a charge history page. I was pretty close on my estimates.
AggieMike88
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The original "I don't know it all" of aviation.
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Velocity173
Around 14 cents per kWh.
CJones
Final Approach
I just locked in our NG rate a few weeks ago. It was almost double from the last time I locked it in 18 months ago. I went with a 12-month rate this time, hoping it comes down some next year. :/
bnt83
Final Approach
A friend of mine spent $14 for 75 miles of range at a supercharger the other day, that's $0.1866 a mile. IDK if that's because there is a fixed connecting fee then a KWh cost added or what.
Prius hybrid even at $8 gas and 45 MPG is cheaper than that.
swear once all the chips fall and all the fees are structured, no one will save a dime over the life cycle of the EV vs a hybrid or ICE.
tspear
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Timothy
If you charge at home, you save a heck of a lot if you are a high millage user. Even just an average use of a car, charge at home saves significant money.
Public chargers are largely a wash when compared to gas prices.
Tim
Larry in TN
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There is no fixed fee. There are two different methods that Superchargers use to charge for electricity and that's driven by the laws on the state in which they are installed.
Some states, like TN, prohibit reselling electricity by the kWh. In those states, the Superchargers charge by the minute. Because the rate of charge varies significantly based on the battery's state-of-charge (SoC), the rate is divided into several tiers based on charging speed and is prorated by the minute. i.e. For each minute of charging, the average charging speed is calculated for that minute and then that minute is charged at the tier for that average rate.
In states that allow, Supercharging is billed by the kWh. In areas where electrical demand is an issue, the rate may change based on the time of day. I've heard of this being used in California. In California, the daytime rate has been relatively high, with more reasonable rates at night, to drive flexible demand to the off-peak hours.
How much does it cost to Supercharge? There is no easy answer. Where electricity is expensive, Supercharging is expensive. Where it's relatively cheap, it's cheap. Just like gasoline. In almost all cases, it is cheaper than gasoline for a similarly sized car. Often it is half the cost of gasoline.
How did your friend determine that he added 75 miles for $14? If he's going by the mileage display, that's based on the EPA's consumption rate which may be higher, or lower, than what he will get depending on the speed at which he drives, the change in elevation, and the temperature. That figure is worthless, IMO, other than comparing the range of different Tesla models. (You can't even compare with non-Tesla EVs as the EPA process allows too much variation so it isn't consistent from one manufacturer to another) Paying too much (any) attention to that metric just adds to people's confusion. Use the car's Energy screen to get real data on your energy consumption and very accurate predictions on energy usage on any trip that's entered into the car's navigation.
Instead of MPG, the metric for a Tesla is Wh/mi. (Watt-hours per mile) Some other cars use mi/kWh (miles per Kilowatt-hour) but you can easily convert back and forth. My car exceeds its EPA efficiency/range rating in the 50mph to 55mph range. As you go faster, drag increases and efficiency and range are reduced. I haven't tested lower speeds. For city driving, the regenerative braking recovers a significant amount of energy when you slow and stop. That makes EVs, and hybrids that rely heavily on their EV mode in city driving, very efficient around town. (I once saw my SoC increase five percentage points from regen-braking while descending from about 5,000' to around 2,000')
Unless you're a person who is road tripping multiple times per month, the cost of Supercharging probably won't make much difference to you. Almost all of your charging is done at home paying your local utility rate. I've owned my Model 3 for just over a year and have Supercharged exactly twice. My car (Model 3 Long Range with 18" wheels) has averaged 0.264 Wh/mi (3.79 mi/kWh) since new. My electric rate is about 10¢/kWh so I'm paying about $0.0264 per mile for electricity.
People who have never lived with an EV are often confused by EVs because so many of the conventions they've learned from driving ICE cars for years don't apply. There are so many misconceptions out there.
EdFred
Taxi to Parking
There wasn't 220 available. Turns out the time to charge the car to get back to a supercharger was going to take longer than the time he would have been there.
People who have drank the EV koolaid are often confused when they leave the big city because the rules for big cities aren't the same for the sticks.
Larry in TN
En-Route
What was the location? Do you have either the town name or zip code?
(some) People who have have never driven an EV tend to think they know more about them than those who own them.
EdFred
Taxi to Parking
Following conversation is hard.
(Kent is from Milwaukee/Kenosha area - and I'm just going by what he told the host)
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Larry in TN
En-Route
Here's the map around Sidnaw from PlugShare. The Orange pins are the Superchargers. The green pins are Level 2 (240v) charging.
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bnt83
Final Approach
What's an honest range once you're out of town and on a super charger? Ae you charging back up to 100%? How long is that taking?
FastEddieB
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Fast Eddie B
I think I posted this upthread:
Trip starting and ending in Knoxville, TN.
Range depends on the Model. Mine is nominally about 350 miles. But we generally don’t let it get below about 15%, and charge enough to arrive at the next Supercharger with at least 15%. Usually takes 15 to 30 minutes. Rarely an inconvenience.
Larry in TN
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Why? Every Tesla comes with a J1772 adapter. A replacement costs $50 if you lose it. Every pin on that map was either a J1772 or Tesla plug.
Tesla has just started selling the CCS1 adapter in the US which allows newer Teslas to DC fast charge on non-Tesla DC fast chargers (there are 19 such networks in the US). Here's the map of just the CCS1 DC fast charging stations in that same area. One is currently under construction in Covington, just 9.5 miles from Sidnaw.
Not enough information to answer. The "real range" varies, most significantly, with speed. Are you driving 45, 55, 70, 85? Is the elevation mostly level? If you need to stretch your range, slow down 5 or 10mph.
The battery charges fastest when its state-of-charge (SoC) is low. As the SoC increases, the rate-of-charge decreases. When making a road trip which requires DC fast charging along the way, the fastest way to get where you're going is to keep the battery in the 5% to 70% SoC range. You might end up making an extra stop, or two, but the total time spent charging will be less. Using this approach, most charging stops will be between 10 minutes and 30 minutes. If you're SoC is relatively low, you can add up to 200 miles in about 15 minutes.
To get a feel for how different EVs would handle a road trip that you're likely to make, run some examples on www.aBetterRoutePlanner.com. You can pick your car and set all of the parameters to see how it would perform. Start at 100% from your home then each stop along the way you'll charge enough to make it to your next stop with a comfortable reserve. If you're eating, etc., let the car continue charging. If you're waiting for the car, leave when it says you'll have your desired reserve at your next planned stop.
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Velocity173
Never heard of a supercharger charging $14 for only 75 miles of range. Generally they’re around $0.25 per kWh. But, I get free supercharging so no idea about rates these days.
The numbers don’t lie. I drove approximately 1,400 miles for around $72 worth of electricity. Since 33% of that is at work, I only paid around $50. $50 to drive 1,400 miles. Not sure what the app uses for the “gas equivalent” but I think they used an average 25 mpg vehicle at roughly $4 gal.
The numbers don’t lie. I drove approximately 1,400 miles for around $72 worth of electricity. Since 33% of that is at work, I only paid around $50. $50 to drive 1,400 miles. Not sure what the app uses for the “gas equivalent” but I think they used an average 25 mpg vehicle at roughly $4 gal.
Tantalum
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San_Diego_Pilot
We Turo'd a Tesla a few months ago up in the IZA area. Fun car, but thank goodness we only needed it for 4 days and didn't kill the battery. The only charger quasi near us was at a hotel and each time we drove by it it was full. One, (1), ONE - bougie winery near SMX had a few slots, all were also occupied.
I'm not pining for an all electric car.. at least not yet.
I'm not pining for an all electric car.. at least not yet.
Larry in TN
En-Route
That's Santa Ynez, CA? Here's the map.
There's a Tesla Supercharge about 7 miles away. That would have been the place to charge if you didn't have charging where you were staying. I'm seeing 18 destination chargers in that 4 miles from city center to the Supercharger, many of which are at hotels.
The problem with EV rentals is that the average person doesn't know how to find the chargers. They don't understand how it all works. They don't know how to use the car's screen to find chargers or about sites like PlugShare. Still, Hertz, in their latest quarterly investment conference call said that their NPS (satisfaction) scores are higher on their Tesla rental fleet than their conventional car fleet. (Also, the Teslas are running 40% to 50% less on maintenance costs).
When you own an EV, you do almost all of your charging at home. In just over a year, I've charged away from home only twice. How many times have you gone to the gas station in the last year? Zero for me. That's one of the biggest benefits of owning one.
Tantalum
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San_Diego_Pilot
At the current time it seems like the ideal second car, or primary daily driver for the house/work/grocery duty. As the network continues to expand it'll be a more and more appealing option for folks. In our case the AirBnB didn't have a charger setup and since the car was virtually full I didn't feel compelled to start running extension cords out the window. The host mentioned the charger down the street but the marriot but it was full each time
We'll get there, but as of today I'd have some anxiety if a Tesla were my only car