How much longer to fix the 737 Max

Discussion in 'Flight Following' started by brien23, Apr 13, 2019.

  1. brien23

    brien23 Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    May 31, 2005
    Messages:
    1,104
    Location:
    Oak Harbor
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Brien
    Just how long can Boeing keep making 737 max in Renton and stacking them up around the airport till they run out of space. Airlines are dropping flights, this summer looks bleak if they can't get the Max up and running again. How is this possible that Boeing fell into this mess and how are they going to get out of it if they keep saying only a few more days, and the few more days fix never happens.
     
  2. TCABM

    TCABM Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2013
    Messages:
    1,098
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    3G
  3. hish747

    hish747 Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2015
    Messages:
    127
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Hish747
    There was an interesting episode on the Airplane Geeks podcast on the 737Max8 issues which included two pilots who flew them. There were some eye opening points they made. One of the things that stood was a comment that there apparently was still some uncertainty at Boeing about whether the MCAS issue was going to be addressed by a releasing a software "fix" or "update." One implies fault with Boeing and the other with the pilot. This was very surprising to hear.
     
  4. murphey

    murphey Final Approach PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    8,343
    Location:
    Colorado
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    murphey
    This isn't a simple problem with a straightforward solution. United's chief pilot has publicly stated they have no problem with MCAS. However there are other issues involved. For starters, US carriers have more stringent training requirements than many other carriers due to FAA mandate. If the MCAS training simply consisted of the 2.5 hr of online training, as advertised, wouldn't matter to the US carriers because of the additional training pilots go thru, both for FAA and carrier ops.

    I had a lengthy discussion a few weeks ago with two pilots - one United and the other Southwest - and I asked about Boeing's development approach and the MCAS. As a software engineer in the aerospace industry (disclaimer - I worked for Boeing in the past but not the aircraft side so I have zero knowledge of that part of the company) it's now common practice to get the users (not the folks who sign the checks) involved in design and development from Day 1. According to these 2 pilots, they don't know anyone from their companies who were involved, other than at the end when the product was introduced and the training material provided.

    To me, this is Fail #1...having experienced pilots involved at the beginning, and able to discuss and weigh in on how a subsystem operates is critical.

    On the other hand, these pilots did not have outstanding confidence in some other countries pilot training methods. They pointed out the lack of stick & rudder skills that the ab initio approach takes - put the student in a high-end, complex sim rather than start with the simple basics in a small airplane. One comment was "remember the XXX airplane that didn't make it to the runway at LA a few years ago? Any of the pilots for that company can recite perfectly chapter and verse the operations manuals but can't react instinctively to a problem - they gotta find the manual first!"

    Isn't that what was happening with either Lion Air or Ethiopian Air? They were busy searching the manuals rather than flying the airplane.
     
    GreatLakesFlying and Eric Stoltz like this.
  5. kgruber

    kgruber En-Route

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2007
    Messages:
    3,795
    Location:
    M94 Airport Manager
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Skywag
    Instead of making a great airplane and require training and a new type rating, Boeing put band-aid on top of band-aid on top of band-aid................until they just made a complete mess. Boeing should buy them all back and give the airlines a modernized 757.
     
    NJP_MAN likes this.
  6. Larry in TN

    Larry in TN Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2013
    Messages:
    1,151
    Location:
    Nashville, TN
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Larry in TN
    They are not mutually exclusive.

    It's clear that the MCAS logic, which allowed unscheduled activation based on one faulty data input, was flawed.

    It is also becoming clear that neither accident crew did a good job of flying the airplane once the unschedule MCAS activation occurred.
     
  7. midwestpa24

    midwestpa24 Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2016
    Messages:
    1,248
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    midwestpa24
    They only did what the customers wanted. Airlines have long pushed the type rating issue and have pitted Airbus and Boeing against each other and the FAA to make it happen.
     
  8. N1120A

    N1120A Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2018
    Messages:
    425
    Location:
    AG5B MYF
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    N1120A
    Air Canada's schedules seem to be targeting June or July, and they are one of the most affected carriers.
     
  9. Checkout_my_Six

    Checkout_my_Six Final Approach

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2007
    Messages:
    9,138
    Location:
    Maryland
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Check_my_Six
    maybe 1 year.....o_O
     
  10. Eric Stoltz

    Eric Stoltz Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2017
    Messages:
    586
    Location:
    PALH
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    ES
    Haha! That's like saying Cessna should buy back all the 182s and give them a modernized 206! Any pilot who can fly a 182 can fly a 182. With correct training, a 182A pilot with a hockey puck compass can fly a factory new T182 with full glass after a little training. The 737 is not a mess, just old school jet plane that's been modernized.
     
    Tantalum and murphey like this.
  11. kgruber

    kgruber En-Route

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2007
    Messages:
    3,795
    Location:
    M94 Airport Manager
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Skywag
    Modernized with baling wire and duct tape.
     
  12. Piperonca

    Piperonca Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2015
    Messages:
    163
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Piperonca
    MCAS is SCAB spelled backwards.
     
    Eric Stoltz likes this.
  13. SkyDog58

    SkyDog58 Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2015
    Messages:
    12,545
    Location:
    My own special place.
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Canis Non Grata
    Right, and I suppose you and the other hyperbolic naysayers on here could build a better plane.

    I don’t know what your background is but I have read a lot of dumb comments on this story coming from folks who I know have neither flown or maintained any jet airliner let alone any 737 derivative.
     
    Eric Stoltz and Tantalum like this.
  14. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2007
    Messages:
    15,624
    Location:
    PUDBY
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Richard Palm
  15. Bell206

    Bell206 Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,409
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Bell206
    And so are Ethiopia Airlines problems. Putting a 361 hr pilot in the right seat effectively made it a single pilot operation especially when 2 experienced minds and 4 hands were required for certification and handling this problem. But don't take my word, these are the same thoughts as a number of line flying pilots to include one pilot with experience in extreme "Oh s***" moments, named Sullenberger. While the SIC in the Lion Air flight wasn't as junior to the Captain and had over 4000hrs in type, there is still discussion why the captain could maintain control of the aircraft through 21 MCAS activations but after he handed over to the SIC to work checklists the co-pilot didn't make it through 4 activations before losing control.

    And don't forget the Germanwings accident. Most social media/internet experts thought the aircraft locked out the captain and deactivated the autopilot altitude function continuously until it hit the mountain. They even thought the SIC succumbed to hypoxia due to a malfunctioning oxygen mask and his "steady breathing recorded on the CVR." And look where that one went.

    I have a 8hr flight scheduled on a 9 MAX in June and I hope they get this problem sorted out. I also did not hesitate to fly the 737 when it had the rudder issues or the DC-10 after O'Hara. Where I had the most concern was boarding flights in 3rd world countries. It's not to knock them as they have a number of excellent pilots--they just have very few of them. But that's my opinion. I found in my experience in aviation and accident investigations in particular, it's very rare for the aircraft to actually stop flying and kill you. It will make for interesting reading when both final reports are released.
     
  16. kgruber

    kgruber En-Route

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2007
    Messages:
    3,795
    Location:
    M94 Airport Manager
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Skywag

    Mostly yours!
     
  17. X3 Skier

    X3 Skier En-Route PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2011
    Messages:
    2,950
    Location:
    I19 & SBS
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Geezer
    To answer the original question, it’s probably already fixed, if it ever needed “fixing”, but the massive CYA activity will delay implementation until 2119.

    Cheers
     
    Tantalum likes this.
  18. Tantalum

    Tantalum En-Route

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    3,160
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    San_Diego_Pilot
    Isn't the fix relatively simple.. don't make the second AoA an option, make it standard, and ensure that pilot training is proper and involves full MCAS failure recovery.. the main part of the delay I think is largely CYA and bureaucracy related

    In addition, it will take the plane several years to shake the stigma. If any Max has an accident in the next 1-3 years post fix the first thing they'll be looking at is MCAS.. so there will certainly be some stigma and a massive CYA effort involved here. Luckily people have a short memory. Up until this accident people boarding 737 were not worried about rudder jams, people boarding MD-80s were not worried about jack screw failures, people boarding A330 are not worried about frozen pitot and stalls, people boarding Colgan or Dash 8 are not worried about fatigued pilots and ice.. the public will get over it soon

    right. Because Boeing has the capital to buy back 4,661 airplanes (source: https://simpleflying.com/what-airlines-have-the-boeing-737-max-on-order/), build and certify an entirely new plane, and then what, expect Southwest to drop their massive 737 fleet and who's going to pay for SW's cost to introduce a new type to their fleet, train them, etc. I can assure you that Boeing was not actively looking to be in the pickle they're in currently. They didn't cobble together a MAX for the sake of being cheap and half rate, they did so out of fierce competition with Airbus and looking at what the market wants. Just about every modern airliner flying has some sort of envelope protection or electronic control augmentation on there. Boeing's fault with the MAX was tying it to just one AoA and not training crews on how to handle an MCAS failure, and how it may be different from a typical trim runaway
     
    1RTK1 and Sluggo63 like this.
  19. Larry in TN

    Larry in TN Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2013
    Messages:
    1,151
    Location:
    Nashville, TN
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Larry in TN
    Two AoA vanes are standard. Every transport jet I've ever flown has had two AoA vanes.
     
  20. SkyDog58

    SkyDog58 Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2015
    Messages:
    12,545
    Location:
    My own special place.
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Canis Non Grata
    As to the silly idea that anyone should be dissuaded from boarding a 737 Max, all I can say is that these two accidents would only dissuade me from flying certain airlines. The plane is safe in my opinion. Those airlines, not so much.
     
    1RTK1 and Tantalum like this.
  21. SkyDog58

    SkyDog58 Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2015
    Messages:
    12,545
    Location:
    My own special place.
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Canis Non Grata
    Oh burn! Wow, I’m hurt.
     
  22. Tantalum

    Tantalum En-Route

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    3,160
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    San_Diego_Pilot
    okay thanks, I thought from the other thread someone had mentioned that the MCAS gets its input from just the one angle of attack indicator.. and it was an additional option for it to receive inputs from both. I could be wrong, but that's what I remember reading from the other thread
     
  23. TCABM

    TCABM Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2013
    Messages:
    1,098
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    3G
    Two games are standard, as mentioned. The MCAS implementation is/was to take data from only one vane, with no cross-checking.

    I know not what the logic is for which vane it sources data from.
     
  24. Greg Bockelman

    Greg Bockelman Administrator Management Council Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2005
    Messages:
    9,679
    Location:
    Yona (Say Joan ya), Guam
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Greg Bockelman
    I thought it alternated flight to flight.
     
    TCABM likes this.
  25. Larry in TN

    Larry in TN Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2013
    Messages:
    1,151
    Location:
    Nashville, TN
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Larry in TN
    You may have read that. Lots of inaccurate information has been posted.

    Each AoA vane feeds its respective flight control computer (FCC) and air data inertial reference unit (ADIRU). Each FCC activates its respective stick shaker when its AoA data indicates a stall or impending stall. Each ADIRU combines information from multiple sources which is output to various systems including the respective airspeed and altitude displays. The master FCC is selected to the side of the pilot-flying for each leg. MCAS is part of the speed trim system (STS). The STS uses the data from the master FCC. The failure of one AoA vane to an excessively high AoA would cause erroneous airspeed and altitude data on the respective side, stick shaker on the respective side, and unscheduled MCAS activation. One of the changes to the STS software will inhibit MCAS when the two AoA inputs disagree by (I think) 5.5 degrees.

    The option was to have AoA displays and/or an AOA DISAGREE message. The AoA display option is normally associated with airlines that install the heads up display (HUD) for CAT II/III approaches. Airlines that use the dual-channel autoland option for CAT II/III approaches, instead of the HUD, generally do not have the AoA display. Very few airline transport jets have AoA displays. It isn't something that's normally included. Boeing will be added the AoA display and AOA DISAGREE message to all MAX aircraft.

    Now you do.
     
  26. murphey

    murphey Final Approach PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    8,343
    Location:
    Colorado
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    murphey
    An incredibly one-sided article.

    What that journal and most others don't understand is that Boeing is 2 companies - Boeing Aircraft (now known as Aviation and Flight Ops) and Boeing Defense (Integrated Defense/Space/Security). Aircraft is having the problems, not the other side of the house.
     
  27. Silvaire

    Silvaire En-Route

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2012
    Messages:
    3,700
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Silvaire
    You have to wonder if this software logic "fix" is like chasing your tail or plugging a leaky dyke with your finger. Is the next MAX going to go down because MCAS was disabled on account of AOA Disagree and it stalls? o_O
     
  28. NJP_MAN

    NJP_MAN Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2013
    Messages:
    1,676
    Location:
    Kentucky
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Shawn
    Every country in the world besides the us uses low time pilots in Boeings and airbus. They can fly the NG just fine. Boeing built a death machine and they know it. Sully is a joke when It comes to commentary. He needs to apologize for slandering that flight crew and never speak again. I hope Boeing gets many suits against them and they think twice about hiding software from crews and then not having an answer on how to actually fly the plane without killing hundreds.
     
  29. X3 Skier

    X3 Skier En-Route PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2011
    Messages:
    2,950
    Location:
    I19 & SBS
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Geezer
    Or because the pilots were incompetent or the right wing fell off or geese were ingested in both engines oh wait, that happened already, or the right windshield blew out and decapitated the Captain or the vertical tail separated, wait, that happened already, or the left engine separated and went over the top of the wing, da** that happened already, or any of any thing goes crazy and people die.

    S*** happens and I’d fly as a pax or in the cockpit of any mainline USA or First world airline and NEVER in any third or second world airline no matter who built the airplane.

    Cheers
     
    Tantalum and Piperonca like this.
  30. Larry in TN

    Larry in TN Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2013
    Messages:
    1,151
    Location:
    Nashville, TN
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Larry in TN
    MCAS is not an anti-stall, or stall recovery, system.
     
  31. Greg Bockelman

    Greg Bockelman Administrator Management Council Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2005
    Messages:
    9,679
    Location:
    Yona (Say Joan ya), Guam
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Greg Bockelman
    Really?!? A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. No knowledge even more so.
     
  32. Greg Bockelman

    Greg Bockelman Administrator Management Council Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2005
    Messages:
    9,679
    Location:
    Yona (Say Joan ya), Guam
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Greg Bockelman
    And thanks to Larry’s post above, now I know for sure.
     
    TCABM likes this.
  33. Zeldman

    Zeldman Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2014
    Messages:
    10,576
    Location:
    NM or the emergency room...
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Billy
    Why do you ask, are you hoping to buy a lot of them on the cheap and then get the free fix,(whatever needs fixing) and start your own airline.?? :lol::lol:
     
  34. Sluggo63

    Sluggo63 Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    Messages:
    808
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Sluggo63
    In my opinion, the big sticking point going forward is going to be the “how the pilots will be trained” question.

    Obviously, people were astonished that all it took was 30 minutes on a iPad to certify a 737 pilot to be qualified to operate a Max 8.

    FAA 8900.1 describes what is required for differences training on a separate variant of an aircraft type based on what “level” of differences the FAA deems the new variant to have. The 737 Max was classified as a differences level “B.”

    FAA 8900.1[/QUOTE]

    I think if it comes out that, again, after the changes are made to the Max, it still only requires iPad training people are really going to question the sanity of that. I’m guessing the new Max training is going to be Level C or D. Probably D.

    The problem is that there are no 737 Max simulators anywhere. I don’t know if there are any Part Task Trainers for the Max. I also don’t know if the FAA will allow airlines to program a non-Max sim to replicate MCAS malfunction behavior.

    If the FAA now lets training slide because it will be “inconvenient” to the airlines to train its pilots in a simulator, there will be heads on a spike somewhere in the beltway.
     
  35. Greg Bockelman

    Greg Bockelman Administrator Management Council Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2005
    Messages:
    9,679
    Location:
    Yona (Say Joan ya), Guam
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Greg Bockelman
    I would think you could come pretty close in a non MAX sim by having a runaway trim and stick shaker activation at the same time.
     
  36. Sluggo63

    Sluggo63 Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    Messages:
    808
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Sluggo63
    You’d also have to disable the trim brake (unless the brake is part of the new fix, which I’ve heard two different things). Also run it in 10 second pulses. The question is “will the FAA allow that.”
     
  37. SCCutler

    SCCutler Administrator Management Council Member PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2005
    Messages:
    16,574
    Location:
    Dallas
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Spike Cutler
    This is, without a shadow of doubt, one of the most ridiculous things I have ever read on the Internet.
     
    X3 Skier and SkyDog58 like this.
  38. Greg Bockelman

    Greg Bockelman Administrator Management Council Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2005
    Messages:
    9,679
    Location:
    Yona (Say Joan ya), Guam
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Greg Bockelman
    I’ve seen worse, Spike. But there is some merit to what kgruber suggests. The -900 series of the 737 is one step too far, IMO. It is in the size range of the 757. I understand commonality but enough is enough.
     
  39. SCCutler

    SCCutler Administrator Management Council Member PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2005
    Messages:
    16,574
    Location:
    Dallas
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Spike Cutler
    I never understood the standing-down the 757, that's a fact, and the 900 with short legs and long body is limited.

    But not to the extent suggested above. That was silly.
     
  40. Greg Bockelman

    Greg Bockelman Administrator Management Council Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2005
    Messages:
    9,679
    Location:
    Yona (Say Joan ya), Guam
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Greg Bockelman
    I think he was talking about the MAX, but yeah, fix the problem and it is still a good airplane.