Will 100LL really stop in 2029/2030?

So, the Assistant Deputy FAA whatnot who just pronounced that the 2030 deadline will slip is leaving the FAA. I wonder what the next version of "this is the final word" pronouncement will be made by his successor?
i think the ultimate answer will come down to impact on congressional districts. when a reasonably affordable eco-friendly fuel is invented that can work in most existing engines without causing a bunch of harm, a date will get laid down. i'm surprised a new engine hasn't yet been developed that can take unleaded fuel that can be overhauled without breaking the bank. if that were to occur, then the new engine could be brought on for all new production and existing engine owners allowed to switch to the new engine at the next overhaul point. to catch the rest, 100ll production is halted at a certain date.
 
  • Like
Reactions: WDD
One wrinkle: remember a year or so ago when UND went to 94UL in their trainer fleet and started getting major valve recession? I know some people burn mogas successfully, but even planes that are supposed to be capable can have issues. I suspect it has a lot to do with "conscientious owner" vs "full rental power".
Is UND the only significantly sized fleet running 94UL? If not, maybe it's a combination of "full rental power" + "leaned to within a thousandth of its life"?
 
I think UND was running 94UL.

A replacement needs to perform at least as well as what it’s replacing.

So IMHO a fuel that can’t run on a turbo, requires you retard timing (and yes lose power), strips your paint, gums your gaskets, makes you do things differently just isn’t toting to work
 
Is UND the only significantly sized fleet running 94UL? If not, maybe it's a combination of "full rental power" + "leaned to within a thousandth of its life"?
UND was running ul94 but they had fleetwide valve recession. Swift blamed UND for running at peak.... Which is per Lycoming. I think the term du jour was "microwelding". I thought I remember Gami did testing for FAA and had said if they retarded timing it would have prevented it.
 
UND did what it always did with 100 LL and it was Swift’s fault the 94UL didn’t work.

BTW - I think newer Lycomings and those being rebuilt use harder valve seats that would have worked. If I’m wrong on this fuzzy recollection please correct.
 
UND did what it always did with 100 LL and it was Swift’s fault the 94UL didn’t work.

BTW - I think newer Lycomings and those being rebuilt use harder valve seats that would have worked. If I’m wrong on this fuzzy recollection please correct.
Lyco has been using hardened valve seats for 30+ years. Continental started using them about 5 years ago. Braly's theory, that he said he verified on his test cell, was that the engines were experiencing very mild detonation. Just enough to cause microwelds between the valve seat and valve. That eroded the valves. UND, Swift, and lyco never released any findings afaik.

The idea was that the engines were right on the edge with 94ul. Operated the same way with 100ll they were fine. A couple degrees of timing, a slightly lower power setting, or a little richer mixture might've also solved it
 
Last edited:
Ah. So 100 octane was needed vs 94.
I thought it wasn't really 94 octane depending on which test was used or something else with the fuel?

 
UL94 is MON 94, generally an AKI of 99 if (R+M)/2 measured, though again the formulation is different from mogas of any AKI outright. It is largely accepted that if your setup is able to run the old leaded 91/96, UL94 would have you covered on the octane front. If the installations in question could run on 91/96, as it appears a parallel valve O360 with 8.5CR like the ones in the UND PA28-181s can, then there's either something inconsistent with the UL94 brew as delivered, or they're lying about the rich octane setting of UL94. In fairness, UND never said their engines were knocking, so it looks like UL94 is delivering to the old 91/96 level.

So, hear me out here... Lycoming may be lying about their seats being hardened? I mean, it wouldn't be the first time the rent-seeking duolopy has fielded dogwater metallurgy into the field, then made you pay for it when the regulator freaks out on everybody. At least Conti admits theirs haven't been shipped hardened until more recently than the former. And I'm the last thing from a Swift toadie mind you.

Valve seat recession in the transition to unleaded is old news. Happened a bunch with automotive. It wasn't primarily about octane; the hardening of the seats resolved the issue without having to mask it with octane or timing. Someone's lying here, we just don't know who (the engine OEM, or the fuel peddler). The fact that Lyco kept pointing at the aromatics as some sort of "loose cannon" in the swift formulations, smells to me like it is Lyco's claim of seat hardening what prob requires scrutinity. ruh roh.
 
Lyco has been using hardened valve seats for 30+ years.
The fact that Lyco kept pointing at the aromatics as some sort of "loose cannon" in the swift formulations, smells to me like it is Lyco's claim of seat hardening what prob requires scrutinity. ruh roh.
Over the last thirty years of Lycoming saying that they have hardened valve seats, have any third-party tests ever been done to show that the seats are not hardened? I ask, because to me, it seems unlikely that Lyco valve seats are not hardened. That said, I know very little about metals other than gold is a gold color. :crazy:
 
Last edited:
Forgot about the leaded to unleaded switch in car engines. They had to change to hardened valve seats to run unleaded fuel if I recall correctly.
 
UL94 is MON 94, generally an AKI of 99 if (R+M)/2 measured, though again the formulation is different from mogas of any AKI outright. It is largely accepted that if your setup is able to run the old leaded 91/96, UL94 would have you covered on the octane front. If the installations in question could run on 91/96, as it appears a parallel valve O360 with 8.5CR like the ones in the UND PA28-181s can, then there's either something inconsistent with the UL94 brew as delivered, or they're lying about the rich octane setting of UL94. In fairness, UND never said their engines were knocking, so it looks like UL94 is delivering to the old 91/96 level.

So, hear me out here... Lycoming may be lying about their seats being hardened? I mean, it wouldn't be the first time the rent-seeking duolopy has fielded dogwater metallurgy into the field, then made you pay for it when the regulator freaks out on everybody. At least Conti admits theirs haven't been shipped hardened until more recently than the former. And I'm the last thing from a Swift toadie mind you.

Valve seat recession in the transition to unleaded is old news. Happened a bunch with automotive. It wasn't primarily about octane; the hardening of the seats resolved the issue without having to mask it with octane or timing. Someone's lying here, we just don't know who (the engine OEM, or the fuel peddler). The fact that Lyco kept pointing at the aromatics as some sort of "loose cannon" in the swift formulations, smells to me like it is Lyco's claim of seat hardening what prob requires scrutinity. ruh roh.
i suspect it's more getting used to the new normal rather than outright lying, they really haven't had a need to push the issue til now. btw, swift added something to their 100r brew specifically for recession.
 
What did they add for ur recession?
 
Over the last thirty years of Lycoming saying that they have hardened valve seats, have any third-party tests ever been done to show that the seats are not hardened? I ask, because to me, it seems unlikely that Lyco valve seats are not hardened. That said, I know very little about metals other than gold is a gold color. :crazy:
A long winded mike Busch article on the matter. I'll save you some time, but here's 2 interesting tidbits...

"In 1989, the FAA commissioned a 150-hour side-by-side test involving a pair of Lycoming O-320 engines running on test stands, one running on 100LL and the other running on unleaded premium autogas. As expected, there was no significant difference in exhaust valve or seat wear between the two engines."

"Interestingly, UND’s Piper Archers are powered by Lycoming 180-horsepower O-360-A4M engines. This engine is among Lycoming’s highest-compression engines (8.5-to-1) with a rather aggressive ignition timing of 25 degrees before top dead center. It was originally certified for grade 91/96 octane minimum. (Grades 80/87 and 91/96 avgas have not been available for many years.) The current revision of the type certificate data sheet lists a minimum fuel octane rating of 100. The high compression ratio and aggressive ignition timing cause this engine to have significantly greater peak combustion pressure—that’s what presses the valve into the seat and can cause micro-welding—than the lower-compression engines (typically 7.0-to-1) that have been running successfully on unleaded auto fuel for decades.

Reducing the fuel octane rating from 100 to 94 as allowed by Lycoming Service Instruction 1070AB results in even higher peak combustion pressure—since lower-octane fuel burns faster—and so might aggravate the micro-welding problem even more. Since both eliminating lead and reducing octane can aggravate the micro-welding problem, doing both at the same time might not be the best idea. I can’t help but wonder whether anyone considered the possibility of retarding the ignition timing by a degree or two to compensate for the lower-octane fuel. Seems to me that might have been prudent."

 
UL94 is MON 94, generally an AKI of 99 if (R+M)/2 measured, though again the formulation is different from mogas of any AKI outright. It is largely accepted that if your setup is able to run the old leaded 91/96, UL94 would have you covered on the octane front. If the installations in question could run on 91/96, as it appears a parallel valve O360 with 8.5CR like the ones in the UND PA28-181s can, then there's either something inconsistent with the UL94 brew as delivered, or they're lying about the rich octane setting of UL94. In fairness, UND never said their engines were knocking, so it looks like UL94 is delivering to the old 91/96 level.

So, hear me out here... Lycoming may be lying about their seats being hardened? I mean, it wouldn't be the first time the rent-seeking duolopy has fielded dogwater metallurgy into the field, then made you pay for it when the regulator freaks out on everybody. At least Conti admits theirs haven't been shipped hardened until more recently than the former. And I'm the last thing from a Swift toadie mind you.

Valve seat recession in the transition to unleaded is old news. Happened a bunch with automotive. It wasn't primarily about octane; the hardening of the seats resolved the issue without having to mask it with octane or timing. Someone's lying here, we just don't know who (the engine OEM, or the fuel peddler). The fact that Lyco kept pointing at the aromatics as some sort of "loose cannon" in the swift formulations, smells to me like it is Lyco's claim of seat hardening what prob requires scrutinity. ruh roh.
Is there a metallurgist around?
 
In 1989, the FAA commissioned a 150-hour side-by-side test involving a pair of Lycoming O-320 engines running on test stands, one running on 100LL and the other running on unleaded premium autogas.
It would be interested no to see athe same test with auto gas today. I’ve had a couple of overhaul shops tell me that they initially recommended auto gas for their engines that were approved under STC, but at some point the formulation was changed and they started seeing valve problems.
 
Over the last thirty years of Lycoming saying that they have hardened valve seats, have any third-party tests ever been done to show that the seats are not hardened? I ask, because to me, it seems unlikely that Lyco valve seats are not hardened. That said, I know very little about metals other than gold is a gold color. :crazy:
Small errata on your last post: it shows two quotes attributed to me, but only the second one is mine. The first one you quoted is from @Jim K , not me.

As to the answer to your question, I don't know if they are sufficiently hardened (that's what she said...) or not, I was merely positing that people say a lot of things in life that aren't true. Parsing out intent wasn't the thrust of my post.


i suspect it's more getting used to the new normal rather than outright lying, they really haven't had a need to push the issue til now. btw, swift added something to their 100r brew specifically for recession.
See above. Parsing out intent wasn't the scope of my originally quoted post.

But it isn't "news" to find out a rent-seeker is not going to willingly enact capex or other changes, unless it benefits their bottom line. Lying, obfuscation, or even outright fraud/misrepresentation can and often are byproducts of that almighty "fiduciary" responsibility they have to their "shareholders", at the expense of the customer.

I'm not accussing Lycoming of criminal misrepresentation here, I'm merely stating that valve recession during the transition to unleaded fuels in preexisting unhardened hardware was a thing in automotive, and rather old news. The friction here (pun very much intended) comes because of the overpriced nature to these engines, and the teeth gnashing by some incumbent end users who are going to get a fox-2 up the pipe with modification costs, or those who consider it a moral injury to incur any additional cost.

Valve seat retrofit isn't a moonshot. This whole thing is overblown.


"In 1989, the FAA commissioned a [...] of Lycoming O-320 engines running on test stands[......]
..We're so cooked, chat.

As to the rest of your post, excellent summation. The timing in the angled IO360 at 8.7 is backed out to 20* to maintain det limits even with 100LL. At any rate, I bet a carbed parallel 360 at 8.5CR won't lose much at 22* over 25*, 20* prob wouldn't even be needed. So I agree with Busch's assertion on that front. It's more than reasonable. But of course, you can't pitch that to people who overpaid for a tractor engine from 1964, it's "insult to injury" territory.

In any event, is re-seating those jugs really that much of a moonshot? I'm being rhetorical of course. But Lycoming rather get these stupid things to the junkyard than keep extending the life of them by retrofitting them, let alone shoulder (R/D or otherwise) any of the cost of doing so. They're truly stuck in a dilemma: They overcharged for and were complicit in the regulatory preservation of the status quo for decades, now their customer base can't afford to treat them as the non-historic-value relics they are, in order to "go away quietly" like Textron would like them to. Couldn't have happened to nicer guys.
 
Small errata on your last post: it shows two quotes attributed to me, but only the second one is mine. The first one you quoted is from @Jim K , not me.
Sorry about that quoting error @hindsight2020! I have fixed that message to properly assign @Jim K to his own quote! I think I had a copy/paste blunder.

-- Jim
 
One of the questions I recall someone asking, but I never saw an answer about in terms of UND issue. To save fuel, a number of flight schools actually do not run the engines as rich as specified in the manuals. Swift apparently tested the engine following Lycoming specifications.
Was UND running as full rich as Lycoming stipulated? Or did they pull it bad a little?

This difference in fuel flow, could be the cause.

Tim
 
One of the questions I recall someone asking, but I never saw an answer about in terms of UND issue. To save fuel, a number of flight schools actually do not run the engines as rich as specified in the manuals. Swift apparently tested the engine following Lycoming specifications.
Was UND running as full rich as Lycoming stipulated? Or did they pull it bad a little?

This difference in fuel flow, could be the cause.

Tim
Presumably they ran and beat their trainer engines on the 94 stuff just as schools often do with the 100LL. And the -320s and -360s seem to practically thrive on abuse running on 100LL. Why would they expect to have to do something different unless it was part of the instructions given by fuel vendor?
 
One of the questions I recall someone asking, but I never saw an answer about in terms of UND issue. To save fuel, a number of flight schools actually do not run the engines as rich as specified in the manuals. Swift apparently tested the engine following Lycoming specifications.
Was UND running as full rich as Lycoming stipulated? Or did they pull it bad a little?

This difference in fuel flow, could be the cause.

Tim
Swift blamed it on running at peak... Which is what Lycoming calls for.
 
I just read that TEL is being manufactured in China. So, we should be OK. Right?
We get everything else from there, so....we're good.
Right?
 
I just read that TEL is being manufactured in China. So, we should be OK. Right?
We get everything else from there, so....we're good.
Right?

A few people on here (in this thread I believe), and elsewhere have stated the TEL manufactured in China does not meet specifications/quality required for avgas. I do not recall anyone saying they cannot do it, but apparently the jump in quality is very difficult to do, requires extensive process, QA, and equipment to make it happen. e.g. Time and money. Most have question if there is enough time and money currently available, to make it happen. I also question if there is political will within China to help the US after recent attitudes have demonstrated a dislike for "everything else" made there.

BWTHDIK?

Tim (I am not a chemist!)
 
Pretty realistic summary of where we are and likely where some of us will end up. Orphaned aircraft is a good way to put it. Look for another power plant that is already or may in the future be STC’ed for your airframe.

How about a running list of possibly orphaned aircraft rather than ones potentially approved for one of the new fuels?

-Twin Cessna 300s & 400s
-Cirrus SR22 & SR22T
-Piper Malibu, Mirage, Navajo, Seneca
-Bonanzas from H35 onward
-Some of the high-wing Cessnas like the 200 series, 180/185s, and my own STCed 182…
-Tecnam P2010 w/ 215hp IO-390 engine
-Warbirds
-What about some of the seaplanes that serve commerce in tourism, missions, or medical/food/supply delivery to remote areas?

I’m not as familiar with some of these and other airplanes as some of you, so feel free to correct and add to my list.

By the way, whatever Innospec, EPA, and FAA are doing is not only going to affect recreational GA in the US. Global orphanity (new word) or reduced safety of flight is a real possibility if/when 100LL supply is lost. Guessing maybe the Chinese will step up, but also that it will be unavailable in the US due to environmental regulatory restrictions.
 
Last edited:
We have 4 years no reason to doom and gloom at this point. Go na say im confident swift and vp will sort 8.7 engines at some point in that time
 
The Cessna 180s through 1976 were 80 octane from the factory. Some have been re-engined of course.
There are so many 200hp Lycoming IO-360s in service, I have to imagine that a solution with the unleaded fuels will be a priority.
 
We have 4 years no reason to doom and gloom at this point. Go na say im confident swift and vp will sort 8.7 engines at some point in that time
I appreciate your optimisim, but 4 years is a short fuse, esp for the Federal government. However, your point is still valid and I don't want to hear the doom and gloom because the obsolesence of 100LL has been a topic for GenAv -- IME -- for 20 years or more.
 
Worse come to worst, what would be the possibility of retrofitting an IO 470 into my '67 Bonanza V35 with an IO520? I know it would slow it down, but heck, I'm 74 and I"m slowing down too. By 2030 I may just turn my Bonanza into lawn art.

If I'm still around, I may be in the market for a new engine circa 2030 and it doesn't look like the Diesel's on the table will happen by then.
 
That IO-470 won’t be any different from a fuel octane need standpoint. That’s what I have in my 182.
 
I have to imagine that a solution with the unleaded fuels will be a priority.
Priority for whom-enough to do something useful about it? What percentage of fleet orphans is too many? And why?
 
I have very high confidence that Cirrus will ensure that their fleet continues flying past 2030, no matter what they need to do.
 
Back
Top