Will 100LL really stop in 2029/2030?

MountainDude

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This is the most convincing piece of evidence, if true:
"There’s a single remaining TEL manufacturer in the west, Innospec. Innospec has been watching world events unfold, and has announced it plans to stop making TEL in the 2028-2029 time frame, with inventory available to support leaded avgas blending until the sunset date of 2030."
 
And here we go again :).
We'll now have people posting lead in Avgas is no big deal. While true, it just doesn't matter, that train has left the station.
Next will be the source TEL from China. Again while some companies in China claim to make TEL, it's extremely unlikely any of the oil majors will source it. Easier to just abandon the piston market.
Lastly, will be the G100UL melts paint crowd. While it seems to have issues and George Braly isn't the best PR guy, it does work from an octane/detonation perspective. The two other alternatives seem likely to require timing changes in higher compression engines to work.

I wish Braly/GAMI would do something besides blaming the owners poor maintenance on the issues they seem to be having and address them head on. Also need to get the UL fuels available more broadly. There's a million gallons in a tank doing nothing, I'd try it if I could get it.
 
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And here we go again :).
We'll now have people posting lead in Avgas is no big deal. While true, it just doesn't matter, that train has left the station.
Next will be the source TEL from China. Again while some companies in China claim to make TEL, it's extremely unlikely any of the oil majors will source it. Easier to just abandon the piston market.
Lastly, will be the G100UL melts paint crowd. While it seems to have issues and George Braly isn't the best PR guy, it does work from an octane/detonation perspective. The two other alternatives seem likely to require timing changes in higher compression engines to work.

I wish Braly/GAMI would do something besides blaming the owners poor maintenance on the issues they seem to be having and address them head on. Also need to get the UL fuels available more broadly. There's a million gallons in a tank doing nothing, I'd try it if I could get it.

I’d hold off on trying G100UL. Have you watched any of these independent tests?

 
The accelerationist in me rejoices.

Embrace your 94UL future, or go turbine. Latter should be no problem for this crowd, you know, cost being "iT iS wHat it Is" and all...
/s

The two other alternatives seem likely to require timing changes in higher compression engines to work.
And I thinkthat's ^^^^ what will end up happening at the end of this multi-decade teeth gnashing. The revenue folk will recapitalize to turbine instantly and pass down the capital cost to the consumer, as they already knew what the inflection number was all along. The recreational folk who can't downshift to 94UL without power loss are not the plurality of that space, and as such will have to learn to enjoy their downrated paperweights.

Cirrus is the only significant current production customer base that would take a big hit on the sunsetting of 100LL. But that crowd is the most likely to eat a diesel retrofit. Let me know when this bet makes it to polymarket, it's probably the only way I'll be able to crowdsource Lycoming engine prices in retirement lol....
 
The accelerationist in me rejoices.

Embrace your 94UL future, or go turbine.
Problem is 94ul (which has caused valve recession that swift blamed due to operating at peak per Lycoming) is going to be phased out for 100r which will require timing changes on the high performance engines. But it will have an additive to help prevent valve recession. Reading between the lines it sounds like swift knows there's an issue with ul94 causing valve recession and are trying to sweep that under the rug while also introducing 100r.

The Lycomings UND had issues with have had hardened valve seats for a long time. Continental's didn't get hardened valves until a few years ago.


At present all options suck.
 
It’s going to go away at some point, it’s just a matter of when. I think there’s been a mission to kill GA for quite some time now.
 
Am I worried? Yes, I've got a huge part of my life not to mention investment on the line so of course I'm worried. However, I really do believe there will be a path forward, we just don't know what it's going to be yet and people are naturally hesitant to go all-in on something that may go nowhere.

TEL production could still be extended or sourced elsewhere.
G100UL's issues are likely solvable on most airframes by overhauling the fuel system and being more diligent about seeps/leaks/spills.
100R or one of the other lesser known options may pan out.

What really stands out to me is the market. With no fuel option a lot of aircraft currently worth six-figures would suddenly be only worth scrap price. Yet, I see no evidence owners are trying to get rid of them yet. Maybe that will change, maybe there will be some difficult and confusing times ahead but I think there's enough will to find the way.
 
The accelerationist in me rejoices.

Embrace your 94UL future, or go turbine. Latter should be no problem for this crowd, you know, cost being "iT iS wHat it Is" and all...
/s
You misspelled nerfworld electric multirotor future :rofl:
mogas be like:

blinds.jpg
 
I wish Braly/GAMI would do something besides blaming the owners poor maintenance on the issues they seem to be having and address them head in.

It would be too expensive to change the fuel formulation and re-qualify it at this stage. Most of my paint stripping concerns could be overcome by a non-drip fueling nozzle at the pump. If George provided fuel farms with a new nozzle upon their first purchase of a G100UL delivery, he’d make more headway.
 
And here we go again :).


I wish Braly/GAMI would do something besides blaming the owners poor maintenance on the issues they seem to be having and address them head on.
You are assuming that Braly is wrong and that G100UL is really eating up gaskets and O-rings and bladders that were in good shape prior to using his fuel.

But I do agree that he needs to hire someone to take over the marketing for him and provide incentives for people to use his fuel.
Perhaps they could offer to pay to inspect about a dozen (or a hundred or a thousand) planes. After assuring they were properly maintained, offer them fuel at a discount and see how many new leaks they uncover after running a few hundred (or thousand) gallons of their paint stripper Unleaded fuel.
 
While it seems to have issues and George Braly isn't the best PR guy, it does work from an octane/detonation perspective.

I wish Braly/GAMI would do something besides blaming the owners poor maintenance on the issues they seem to be having and address them head on. Also need to get the UL fuels available more broadly. There's a million gallons in a tank doing nothing, I'd try it if I could get it.
You've landed on the most significant factor that no one else seems to talk about: George. His vigilance over his IP is reminiscent of the Wright Brothers, and is likely to end in a similar way. If he'd been more open to working with Big Oil a decade ago, this whole thing would be behind us. As for the paint and seals, it may be true that all of the affected airplanes had old paint and seals before they started G100UL, but they weren't leaking. George needs to acknowledge that with something like, "it would be a good idea to get a bunch of fuel system maintenance done before switching but, in contrast to retarded timing, you'll still make 100% power." Instead, he's defensive, which makes one wonder what else we don't know.

All of the options s*ck, but G100UL seems to s*ck the least. Barring a big surprise, it's our best -- any perhaps only -- hope.
 
You've landed on the most significant factor that no one else seems to talk about: George. His vigilance over his IP is reminiscent of the Wright Brothers, and is likely to end in a similar way. If he'd been more open to working with Big Oil a decade ago, this whole thing would be behind us. As for the paint and seals, it may be true that all of the affected airplanes had old paint and seals before they started G100UL, but they weren't leaking. George needs to acknowledge that with something like, "it would be a good idea to get a bunch of fuel system maintenance done before switching but, in contrast to retarded timing, you'll still make 100% power." Instead, he's defensive, which makes one wonder what else we don't know.

All of the options s*ck, but G100UL seems to s*ck the least. Barring a big surprise, it's our best -- any perhaps only -- hope.
My biggest concern about GAMI isn’t paint or gaskets. It’s insurance companies. Until your carrier says it’s fine to use an alternative fuel, you’re running at risk of not being covered in case of an incident.
 
You've landed on the most significant factor that no one else seems to talk about: George. His vigilance over his IP is reminiscent of the Wright Brothers, and is likely to end in a similar way. If he'd been more open to working with Big Oil a decade ago, this whole thing would be behind us. As for the paint and seals, it may be true that all of the affected airplanes had old paint and seals before they started G100UL, but they weren't leaking. George needs to acknowledge that with something like, "it would be a good idea to get a bunch of fuel system maintenance done before switching but, in contrast to retarded timing, you'll still make 100% power." Instead, he's defensive, which makes one wonder what else we don't know.

All of the options s*ck, but G100UL seems to s*ck the least. Barring a big surprise, it's our best -- any perhaps only -- hope.
The bolded and italicized comment may need a bit of review. It is my understanding that many, if not most of them did indeed show evidence of leaking prior to using G100UL.
 
I just noticed that this article is written by @PaulMillner and I did not notice anything that hasn't been discussed here (PoA) already.
I think the firmness on Innospec's part is bit more definitive than we've seen in the past. It's a tiny part of their business, run on an old and tired asset that they have been reserving for the cost of shutting it down.
Also, Paul Millner knows more about the business, chemistry and supply chain issues than anyone else, so he's a pretty good source of truth.
 
If he'd been more open to working with Big Oil a decade ago, this whole thing would be behind us.

It's my understanding that George was working with Chevron at the outset, but the FAA brought pressure on Chevron to drop GAMI by threatening their jet fuel business. @PaulMillner might know some details.
 
You've landed on the most significant factor that no one else seems to talk about: George.
??? I've seen plenty of folks remark on George's combative style, and how it likely serves him more ill than good. Maybe that's not remarked on so much in formal publications out of professional courtesy or whatever, but if you read pilot forums like this one, it's mentioned pretty often.
 
My take is that since UL94 eats valve SEATS then the metallurgy for the seats needs to be changed. I mean my car has 250,000 miles of both E85 and E10 driving an not one valve seat has been worn.

TEL is going away. Lycoming and Cont/Rotax etc have had a decade of the writing on the wall. Its clear that current seats are not up to the task... so fix it Mr. Motor makers. The FAA could carve out a liability exception for manufacturers if needed... but the unleaded fuel problem is solved.. the solution is the motors need to be updated from the 1940's designs.

A large % of engines can run MOGAS (unleaded) fine. The FAA should also put in place a pilot plan to provide infrastructure funds to add MOGAS tanks at airports. I mean if we can give millions of dollars to programs like male circumcision in foreign countries (https://www.usaspending.gov/award/ASST_NON_72061220CA00003_7200) then we can also fund a few MOGAS installs.
 
However, I really do believe there will be a path . With no fuel option a lot of aircraft currently worth six-figures would suddenly be only worth scrap price. Yet, I see no evidence owners are trying to get rid of them yet.

Oh, that isn't near as puzzling or complicated as may intimate at first glance: It's just good ol' factory default setting, sunk cost fallacy behavior. Not chucking stones from glass houses, I got a divorce to show on account of that fallacy. Spirit airline pilots incurred the same logical fallacy. To be clear, it's not totally irrational in all instances; there's some material value to having a "full pay 'til the last day" attitude about something you know it's coming to an end but won't admit publicly. But we're talking about marginal benefits.

The more relevant error would be in extrapolating the notion these people know something the market doesn't, as the underlying reason for their unwillingness to pivot. That would be a gross miscalculation, rather than a mere, innocuous emotional cope for the loss they privately know they're gonna eat.

The people who resemble the remark in this narrative are likely Americans, which means they're socialized to regard "extend and pretend" behavior as beneficial, if not outright cheerled by society. As such, they're waiting on their deus ex machina, up to and including govt subsidy or remuneration for their losses. Nothing new.

Also remember that we live in a bubble where things that don't happen in 2 weeks, are not real to these people. Timelines of 30 years are effectively non-realities in their view. Further ammo to support their whistle past the graveyard attitude. My neighbor just foreclosed on a home of 18 years that wasn't even underwater, by never coming to grips with 4 years of demanding a sale price that the market did not support. Sunk cost fallacy run amok. *shrugs*
 
One might be able to squat an abandoned hangar @12N to store an ancient outlaw vehicle...

A couple of years ago I wrote a version of Red Barchetta substituting a Yellow Cub for the car. It was pretty corny, but damnit I didn't want it to come true!
 
My take is that since UL94 eats valve SEATS then the metallurgy for the seats needs to be changed. I mean my car has 250,000 miles of both E85 and E10 driving an not one valve seat has been worn.
It kind of reminded me of when I bought my Fly Baby in 1996. I immediately started running it on car gas (~25 hours total time on engine). First annual, I had a valve leakage.

The repairman said the valve system was an older kind that needed lead. If the engine had a few hundred hours on it, enough would have been deposited to protect it, but 25 hours hadn't been enough (and I didn't know how often the previous owners had been running car gas). He did switch the cylinder to the type that didn't need lead, but the other three were still stock.

He recommended a year on 100LL, then switch to autogas if I wanted, just feed some 100LL through it occasionally. I've tried to keep to a 3:1 ratio (one 100LL fill for every three autogas fills) during the summer ever since, and haven't had any problems. No issues since...compression tests usually come out 80:75 or higher, even cold. When cold/bad weather comes, I run 100LL nearly 100% due to the worries about stability in the autofuel.

Ron Wanttaja
 
The bolded and italicized comment may need a bit of review. It is my understanding that many, if not most of them did indeed show evidence of leaking prior to using G100UL.
The bolded and italicized comment may need a bit of review. It is my understanding that many, if not most of them did indeed show evidence of leaking prior to using G100UL.
I have a Grumman Tiger with no evidence of leaking and new paint. I am not willing to be a Guinea pig for testing G100UL. GAMI needs to have an independent testing lab do the proper material compatibility testing and prove to us that their fuel does not damage. Perhaps the various owner groups can contract for the testing for their owners.
 
It kind of reminded me of when I bought my Fly Baby in 1996. I immediately started running it on car gas (~25 hours total time on engine). First annual, I had a valve leakage.

The repairman said the valve system was an older kind that needed lead. If the engine had a few hundred hours on it, enough would have been deposited to protect it, but 25 hours hadn't been enough (and I didn't know how often the previous owners had been running car gas). He did switch the cylinder to the type that didn't need lead, but the other three were still stock.

He recommended a year on 100LL, then switch to autogas if I wanted, just feed some 100LL through it occasionally. I've tried to keep to a 3:1 ratio (one 100LL fill for every three autogas fills) during the summer ever since, and haven't had any problems. No issues since...compression tests usually come out 80:75 or higher, even cold. When cold/bad weather comes, I run 100LL nearly 100% due to the worries about stability in the autofuel.

Ron Wanttaja
There's a lot of controversy about whether lead acts as a cushion to prevent valve rescission or if the octane it provides prevents detonation that causes micro welds between the valve and the seats which get torn when the valve moves, causing erosion. I tend to believe the latter.
 
And yet we have other testing that shows it works great as a paint stripper.


My POV on UL 100 Octane:
1) It would be great
2) LMK when someone makes it, it's available, and it works as well or better than 100 LL
3) I'm not going to worry about when. Heck, this soap opera is starting to get un interesting.
 
will 100ll go away, HOPE SO, stupid as hell it's taken this long.

GAMI, sorry but no. if you have that many problems 3 mos after launch, somethings not right, sorry but done. Note, i own a wet wing mooney, likely the exact aircraft which would melt when filled with this fuel

100R/UL100E/hell 94UL hope so, but guess we'll find out. honestly i'm not too concerned. Valve seats ( didn't we find this out in the 70s) nothing new, hopefully their additive sorts things. even with 94ul i'm not seeing why we'd have to de-rate anything, are we too damn stupid to use an inch less mp at sea level when it's 110 degrees? crossing my fingers 100r/ul100e will sort even that.
 
My biggest concern about GAMI isn’t paint or gaskets. It’s insurance companies. Until your carrier says it’s fine to use an alternative fuel, you’re running at risk of not being covered in case of an incident.
I swung to this point of view after the 421’s insurance settlement for 600K was made public and specifically names gamifuel as the cause of loss.
 
Oh, that isn't near as puzzling or complicated as may intimate at first glance: It's just good ol' factory default setting, sunk cost fallacy behavior. Not chucking stones from glass houses, I got a divorce to show on account of that fallacy. Spirit airline pilots incurred the same logical fallacy. To be clear, it's not totally irrational in all instances; there's some material value to having a "full pay 'til the last day" attitude about something you know it's coming to an end but won't admit publicly. But we're talking about marginal benefits.

The more relevant error would be in extrapolating the notion these people know something the market doesn't, as the underlying reason for their unwillingness to pivot. That would be a gross miscalculation, rather than a mere, innocuous emotional cope for the loss they privately know they're gonna eat.

The people who resemble the remark in this narrative are likely Americans, which means they're socialized to regard "extend and pretend" behavior as beneficial, if not outright cheerled by society. As such, they're waiting on their deus ex machina, up to and including govt subsidy or remuneration for their losses. Nothing new.

Also remember that we live in a bubble where things that don't happen in 2 weeks, are not real to these people. Timelines of 30 years are effectively non-realities in their view. Further ammo to support their whistle past the graveyard attitude. My neighbor just foreclosed on a home of 18 years that wasn't even underwater, by never coming to grips with 4 years of demanding a sale price that the market did not support. Sunk cost fallacy run amok. *shrugs*
You'll never be mistaken for an optimist. So you've got that going for you.

:cool:
 
Interesting how no one is actually discussing the economic aspect raised in the article; over why TEL is coming to an end.

Tim
 
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