Why RV-12s are not dropping in price?

N918KT

N918KT

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I was hoping MOSAIC would allow pre-MOSAIC LSAs to drop in price since 172s and Cherokees would open up to sport pilots. However, I see used ELSA RV-12s holding their listing price at least above $80,000 with RV-12s rarely dropping below that price.

Was wondering why that is the case?

Also a 2nd question, but there is one RV-12 I've been keeping an eye on that is on and off the market over the past few years currently listed at $72,500:


Was wondering if there is an issue with that particular aircraft to be on and off the market like that.
 
MOSAIC isn’t going to do anything to change aircraft prices. IOW the same demographic that’s most likely to get into aircraft ownership won’t change all that much so the market, which sets the value, isn't going to change either. Aircraft ownership is expensive no matter what pilot certificate is allowed to fly a given aircraft.
 
I agree with @tsts4. Sticking with what you mentioned, there are plenty of people who'd much rather choose a used RV12 that is better looking, faster, and better equipped than an older 172 or Cherokee. I know people who have used (and even bought) pre-MOSAIC LSA for private pilot training. A few for instrument and commercial.
 
BTW, on that RV12 you are monitoring, it's hard to say. With an experimental, you never know what might show up on a pre-buy. And the avionics are not the latest. The D-180 is a legacy Dynon EFIS, IIRC, predating the early pre-HDX SkyView units.
 
One of the things to ask for in the written purchase agreement is to get a copy of the prior prospective purchaser’s prebuy(s) and be able to contact them and their A&P. That’s what I did with mine because the prior purchaser walked.

Also, isn’t it too early in the MOSAIC era for the prior batch of eligible aircraft to be flushed through the market and average prices to reflect whatever it is they are supposed to do?
 
N918KT said:
Was wondering why that is the case?
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One, the Part 22 LSA certification rules just went live last month so you are probably about 2-3 years out before you see any MOSAIC aircraft effects on the recreational aircraft market whether E/AB or TC'd. Now if they bring over some of the existing EU developed LSAs you might see that timeframe tweak a bit. However, two, unless the recreational market breaks from its historical record of limited participation in these opportunities, you won't see any price changes as it will require a significant expenditure by that market in new aircraft to drive those price changes.
 
Advertised price and actual sales price may differ considerably. I've seen several planes remain listed for a long time.
 
In the long run, MOSAIC may reduce the cost of flying by offering more cost effective paths to increasing the GA fleet. Long term = decade or more.

Short term market changes for specific types are wishful thinking.
 
re: pricing, lots of unserious sellers sitting on dry-rotting tomatoes trying to unload, without little in the way of opportunity cost if they don't sell.

Pocket listings are really the only market with any semblance of liquidity. But that's one which lacks total transparency, so the price discovery you seek will not be forthcoming, definitionally. Incestuous walled garden.

When the macroeconomics shifts the monthly cashflow for these sellers, then you'll see some liquidity of transaction in the public listings. Otherwise they're (the public lists) largely a waste of time. MOSAIC is unlikely to have any effect on that, hence macroeconomics.
 
RV-12s aren't dropping in price because they are still exactly what they were before... a nice little 2-place that will do an honest 120 KTAS on auto gas. Yes, a small subset of RV-12 owners will want something bigger... maybe. Still can't fill more than 2 seats, and I would not willingly trade the EAB/ELSA ownership experience for that of a factory built airplane without a huge difference in speed, useful load, or something else that you're not going to find.
 
DaleB said:
RV-12s aren't dropping in price because they are still exactly what they were before... a nice little 2-place that will do an honest 120 KTAS on auto gas.
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IMHO spot on. Supply and demand determine price. The RV's are, from what I can tell, are nice airplanes that are keeping demand.

Upside? If you do decide to pay for an RV even though it isn't half the cost of last year's prices, you'll have a very nice flying airplane that I doubt will crash in resell price. But then again, you buy the plane to have fun flying and spend more money, so perhaps we get to not worry so much about the resale price.
 
DaleB said:
RV-12s aren't dropping in price because they are still exactly what they were before... a nice little 2-place that will do an honest 120 KTAS on auto gas. Yes, a small subset of RV-12 owners will want something bigger... maybe. Still can't fill more than 2 seats, and I would not willingly trade the EAB/ELSA ownership experience for that of a factory built airplane without a huge difference in speed, useful load, or something else that you're not going to find.
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Yup…the only real reason to upgrade to a 4-place airplane that a Sport Pilot can now fly would be the need for significant cargo space. For example, I flew my Maule almost exclusively solo, but my tent and sleeping bag always lived in the baggage compartment, and with the rear seats out I could stuff my recumbent bike in when I went on a trip that warranted it.
 
I've actually been toying with building or buying an RV12is down the road. I've resigned myself to the prices not dropping. Sure, will the new MOSAIC rules allow LSA planes that are faster and heavier? Yes. Will this drive the price down? Doubtful. All these fancy hod rod European LSA's are 250-500k. An RV9 with a 916 conversion seems to pencil out in the mid 200's. We may see new MOSAIC planes, but whatever VAN's or anyone else comes out with, they will all likely be mid 200's and above. So the RV12is is still a solid deal for the time being.

The first round of MOSAIC didn't make airplanes that much cheaper, and this new update won't either.
 
Why would an RV-12 diminish in value unless it is high time? A new one will cost substantially more to build than if you bought an existing one, and I'm not sure a lot of folks care if their "new" airplane has 200 hours..
 
You could buy a flying RV 12 and then enjoy the "build" time by continuously modifying it / spending money on it.
 
The asking prices may not have dropped but many of the RV-12's are taking a long time to sell and selling under asking.
 
Great answers so far. My 2¢, from a Sport Pilot or flying as a Sport Pilot perspective there really isn't any upside to owning a C172 or PA28 over an RV-12. Maintenance and operating costs are much higher for a C172 and PA28. For example, a new Rotax 912 is $25K - $32K. The only upside a C172 or PA28 may have is insurance. I can only get a policy with up to $200K passenger coverage on my RV-12 which is woefully inadequate. No issues getting much higher limits on my C172.

If your mission is boring holes in the sky you can't beat an RV-12!

As to why the RV-12 you highlighted hasn't sold, without logbooks we can only speculate, but I would guess there are more than a few Service Bulletins that haven't been completed and as a 2011 model there are a few bigger ones out there. Also, I have been told, that it makes more sense to sell a Rotax 912 at 800 hours and buy a new one rather than maintain a 912 for the potential 1,200 more hours (depending on S/N)...
 
idahoflier said:
As to why the RV-12 you highlighted hasn't sold, without logbooks we can only speculate, but I would guess there are more than a few Service Bulletins that haven't been completed and as a 2011 model there are a few bigger ones out there. Also, I have been told, that it makes more sense to sell a Rotax 912 at 800 hours and buy a new one rather than maintain a 912 for the potential 1,200 more hours (depending on S/N)...
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Our 912ULS has a 2,000 hour TBO, and we plan to run it until it needs overhaul. The gearbox overhaul at 1000 hours cost us $800 or so, so that wasn't bad. 5 year rubber replacements aren't bad since I switched to Teflon fuel hoses during the first one (oil hoses are already all Teflon). There's really nothing really expensive on the horizon. We're putting 100-ish hours per year on the plane, and about 1100 TT so far.

It's the bloody SBs that are a burr under the saddle, plus one that should have an SB but doesn't yet. If that one hasn't been kept current, there's a week or two of work and a few grand to be spent getting it that way.

Still, I've heard of guys spending more on an annual for a 172. Our operating costs are pretty low. Oil changes cost us under $100 and only have to be done at 100 hours... spark plugs get replaced at 200 hours, total cost under $50. Unless it's a really old 912 non-ULS that hasn't been upgraded for a 2K hour TBO (which was a ridiculously cheap and easy modification), I can't think of a good reason to get rid if it early.
 
If someone wanted to, could they put a bigger engine on an RV 12 and get cruising speed up to 135 - 140 kts? Kind of like the 1980's pocket rocket hot hatches like the Golf GTI.

Not sure what the frame could handle, or what a X Country ride would be like in such a small plane. But could be fun. Take something that is working fine the way it is and add more horse power - the American way!
 
DaleB said:
Our 912ULS has a 2,000 hour TBO, and we plan to run it until it needs overhaul. The gearbox overhaul at 1000 hours cost us $800 or so, so that wasn't bad. 5 year rubber replacements aren't bad since I switched to Teflon fuel hoses during the first one (oil hoses are already all Teflon). There's really nothing really expensive on the horizon. We're putting 100-ish hours per year on the plane, and about 1100 TT so far.

It's the bloody SBs that are a burr under the saddle, plus one that should have an SB but doesn't yet. If that one hasn't been kept current, there's a week or two of work and a few grand to be spent getting it that way.

Still, I've heard of guys spending more on an annual for a 172. Our operating costs are pretty low. Oil changes cost us under $100 and only have to be done at 100 hours... spark plugs get replaced at 200 hours, total cost under $50. Unless it's a really old 912 non-ULS that hasn't been upgraded for a 2K hour TBO (which was a ridiculously cheap and easy modification), I can't think of a good reason to get rid if it early.
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Yeah, the 5 year hose replacement is a bit of a PITA, but not terrible. I'm nowhere close to the gearbox overhaul so will have to wait a few years for that experience.

My concern with SB's that haven't been completed would be parts. IDK that Van's has a lot in the warehouse. My experience with a cracked exhaust pipe a while back wasn't fun. I had to wait several months before a new tube was welded up and available.

Regarding the overhaul, it really doesn't make much sense to me to overhaul a 912 when you can buy a new one for ~ $4K - $5K more. Regarding a new engine at 800 hours, the thinking is that there is a market for a 912 with 800 hours TT and you can sell it for a good price and use that $ for a new engine which would be cheaper than an overhaul or new engine at 2,000 hours. Then you don't have to worry about a gearbox overhaul. IDK? It's probably going to be several years before I find out and if I still own the RV-12.
 
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WDD said:
If someone wanted to, could they put a bigger engine on an RV 12 and get cruising speed up to 135 - 140 kts? Kind of like the 1980's pocket rocket hot hatches like the Golf GTI.

Not sure what the frame could handle, or what a X Country ride would be like in such a small plane. But could be fun. Take something that is working fine the way it is and add more horse power - the American way!
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Some folks have tried Viking engines, but I'm not familiar with the results and you would probably need to be really good with fiberglass. The VNE is 136 KTAS. The VA is 72 - 90 KIAS so it would get a little scary (at least to me) approaching VNE. It's really easy to cruise in the yellow arc with a 912. A person would probably be way ahead by just getting an RV designed for more HP...
 
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WDD said:
If someone wanted to, could they put a bigger engine on an RV 12 and get cruising speed up to 135 - 140 kts?
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Are you familiar with the cube root aerodynamic rule for horsepower?
 
WDD said:
Yep
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Then you know that speed range is around 140hp. In the Rotax world that's a 915iS, which is 50lbs heavier and would move the CG forward. Much of the added weight is in the gearbox, which moves the CG forward even more. And it's longer which slides the CG forward even more. It's also wider because it's turbo intercooled, which might mean more drag. And the intercooler is going to need airflow, which might mean even more drag. Rotax also lowered the compression ratio to handle the turbo boost, which means a higher BSFC and now the 20 gallon tanks are going to be an issue.

A person would probably be way ahead by just getting an RV designed for more HP...
 
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