Ukraine Just Re-Wrote the Rules of War

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Iflydogs

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This may be behind a paywall, though I believe a few free views are allowed:


The gist is that yesterday’s attacks will have an effect on defenses the world over as heretofore impregnable and inviolate bases with billions of dollars of aircraft are now at risk from drones costing a few thousand dollars. I would have hoped the US had anticipated and protected against an attack like this, but I wonder what our airspace will look like if military authorities enact new procedures to protect their fleets.
 
IBTL...but considering the US has been working on unmanned, air-based strike capabilities for quite a while, I highly doubt that the defense against such has been entirely overlooked. Drone warfare is not exactly new at this point.



Also, in my personal opinion, the fact that trucks carrying those drones were able to so easily drive even to remote parts of Russia just means that Russia's security is a lot more lackluster than they would have people believe. You would think in active warfare, there'd be screening checkpoints along every road at the border to check vehicles for this and many similar reasons.
 
Neither new nor evolutionary; we dealt with Iranian drones going back at least as far as 2008, and maybe a lot earlier.

That one side has chosen to use a drone to exploit airpower’s unique capabilities in such a strategic manner is either brilliance or desperation/existential.

The UAV/drone air base defense problem is a challenge.
 
Curious to Putin’s response. A massive drone attack such as this falls under the relaxed nuke release rules Putin outlined in November. He can either keep slugging it out with conventional warfare, or finally back up his rhetoric and strike to the heart (Kyiv).
 
SkyChaser said:
Also, in my personal opinion, the fact that trucks carrying those drones were able to so easily drive even to remote parts of Russia just means that Russia's security is a lot more lackluster than they would have people believe. You would think in active warfare, there'd be screening checkpoints along every road at the border to check vehicles for this and many similar reasons.
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I had similar thoughts. With the planning and logistics stretching over a year and a half, it seems like a single random traffic stop or investigation of a suspicious vehicle or structure could have brought the whole scheme crashing down like a house of cards at any time. There’s already speculation of Russian complicity, a lá the partisans of WWII.

Interesting times.
 
SkyChaser said:
IBTL...but considering the US has been working on unmanned, air-based strike capabilities for quite a while, I highly doubt that the defense against such has been entirely overlooked. Drone warfare is not exactly new at this point.



Also, in my personal opinion, the fact that trucks carrying those drones were able to so easily drive even to remote parts of Russia just means that Russia's security is a lot more lackluster than they would have people believe. You would think in active warfare, there'd be screening checkpoints along every road at the border to check vehicles for this and many similar reasons.
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Remember, Russia claims not to be at war". This is a "minor military operation". sigh.
 
bbchien said:
Remember, Russia claims not to be at war". This is a "minor military operation". sigh.
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We haven't been at war with anybody since WWII according to the law.
 
The US has actually been putting a lot of effort in to anti-drone countermeasures for the last few years, even before the Ukrainian conflict began.
 
Sac Arrow said:
The US has actually been putting a lot of effort in to anti-drone countermeasures for the last few years, even before the Ukrainian conflict began.
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Yes, but having countermeasure capabilities and having the willingness to use them are two entirely different things.

1748874100402.png
 
FastEddieB said:
I had similar thoughts. With the planning and logistics stretching over a year and a half, it seems like a single random traffic stop or investigation of a suspicious vehicle or structure could have brought the whole scheme crashing down like a house of cards at any time. There’s already speculation of Russian complicity, a lá the partisans of WWII.

Interesting times.
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The one thing we can know for sure is that there are aspects of such a mission that we will never know. Routes, bribes, subterfuge, forged documents, spies, etc., etc. I'm sure there's an impressive back story.

Putin and his henchmen keep making noises about WWIII. Russia can't even defeat Ukraine; do they really think they can defeat the free world? For all the bluster, Russia has shown itself to be a paper tiger.
 
The tradecraft of this operation is so intriguing, particularly the comms link from the pilots to the FPV drones. 4000km deep inside Russia. I'm hearing they piggybacked on the Russian civilian cell network. Such fusion of technical capability and spycraft is world class.

Russia has extensive internal security measures, but they suffer from one major challenge: Russia is a really huge place. The Russian international border is 14,000 miles long, and spans 14 countries. Several of those border states are quite dysfunctional and corrupt themselves. There are thousands of unmapped crossings and isolated official crossings where officials are vulnerable to bribery.

Once across the border, Russia has 6.6 million square miles of territory. Impossible to secure an area that vast. Checkpoints are easy to defeat. Simply proof each segment of a route with a recon before sending vulnerable assets down it. With mobile apps, secure comms for tradecraft is far easier than ever before.

Drone countermeasures are very localized, and subject to counter-countermeasures. Not surprising the Russians would push their best defensive gear to critical points close to the war zone, neglecting bases thousands of miles away from any threat. Kudos to Ukraine for incredible creativity and guts.
 
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What happened to Russia?
(Russian Baltic / Second Pacific Fleet 1904-05.)
Nevermind . . .
 
Half Fast said:
The one thing we can know for sure is that there are aspects of such a mission that we will never know. Routes, bribes, subterfuge, forged documents, spies, etc., etc. I'm sure there's an impressive back story.

Putin and his henchmen keep making noises about WWIII. Russia can't even defeat Ukraine; do they really think they can defeat the free world? For all the bluster, Russia has shown itself to be a paper tiger.
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I don't think they can defeat the free world. Or even a small part of it.

But they could sure make a radioactive mess if they tried.
 
JOhnH said:
But they could sure make a radioactive mess if they tried.
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But not without becoming one themselves.

And as far as Russia's large nuclear arsenal goes, I suspect it won't function much better than the rest of their hardware.
carnegieendowment.org

Russia’s Nuclear Modernization Drive Is Only a Success on Paper

Despite all the hype, Russia’s nuclear modernization program is suffering from significant delays. The replacement of Soviet-era systems will take years because of production issues, poor management, and financial problems.
carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org

carnegieendowment.org

Why Russia’s Nuclear Forces Are No Longer Being Updated

Faced with the conditions of a real war, the defense industry’s priorities have shifted toward conventional forces.
carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org


Those articles primarily discuss delivery platforms, but I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't also issues with the warheads themselves if Russia hasn't upgraded the arming and firing electronics. Electronics degrade with long term exposure to radiation, and it's entirely possible that many of their warheads will fizzle.
 
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Russia isn't the world's concern. The china/Russia alliance is. Also, don't think for a minute that the US boarder is any better than russias. Thousands of cars and trucks pass through the border every day with only a very small percentage checked. Container ships are even worse with almost none of that cargo being inspected other than a possible random search. The volume of people and cargo crossing the border is just to large to realistically inspect it all. Scary times we live in.
 
Russia has been staling to try and secure more land for negotiations. Now that the Ukrainians have gone further into Russia the game plan will be changing.
 
Bacho said:
I don’t appear to see anything past the first paragraph.
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Sorry about that...thought links were free but I now see strings attached. Sucks.

1748886397998.jpeg
 
Half Fast said:
Putin and his henchmen keep making noises about WWIII. Russia can't even defeat Ukraine; do they really think they can defeat the free world? For all the bluster, Russia has shown itself to be a paper tiger.
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But a paper tiger with nukes...
 
Ed Haywood said:
Even with a 90% failure rate, that other 10% would suck on the receiving end.
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Sure. But on the other hand, would you fire a shotgun if you knew that there was a hairline crack in the barrel?
 
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