Ukraine Just Re-Wrote the Rules of War

tspear said:
@Ed Haywood
Never forget, what was the public justification for Russian invasion of Ukraine? It was about Nazi's. If Ukraine makes it painful enough for Russia to walk back to previous borders, as long as Zelinski and a couple others are kicked out of office; Putin can claim victory and save face.

Tim
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Have you watched any of the Putin interviews for an opposing view on the situation?
 
Flatiowa said:
This assumes he is not terminally ill or suicidal, and has “nothing left to loose”, but wants his name to be remembered forever…
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Doesn't he have a family? I'd hope he cares enough about them to not ruin the world over his desires for conquest or legacy. But I don't know what's going on in his mind.
 
Bacho said:
I’m not at all convinced any of that would happen over a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Are we willing to end the world over a nuke in Ukraine? I am certainly not.

I’m also doubtful that he wants all of Ukraine or has any desire to nuke it.
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I'm not talking about ending the world, but I doubt the NATO/Europe/US powers would allow such an action to go unpunished. I doubt we'd be willing to return fire with nuclear strikes on Russia, both from an ethical standpoint as well as MAD. However, we've historically done plenty of regime changes by getting leaders "un-alived" or otherwise removed from power. I don't think we'd hesitate to act swiftly on someone like that. Even the DPRC would have to distance themselves economically from Russia if they took that step.
 
Bacho said:
Have you watched any of the Putin interviews for an opposing view on the situation?
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Yes, and the military intervention was stirred up due to Nazi's in power and they must rush to save the Russian's and others living in Ukraine.

Tim
 
172andyou said:
Not gonna happen. There isn't a computer in the world powerful enough to do the math necessary to show Putin coming out ahead on that plan.
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He’s not coming out ahead with his current plan right now. His conventional weapons caches are being depleted and he’s at a stalemate right now. Whether it’s a tactical nuke, which wouldn’t be the end of the world, or another massive air strike, he’s going to do whatever is necessary to extend this war and I’m sure he’s getting frustrated with the “Paper Tiger” comments.

Putin isn’t the same person that he was when he took office. He used to be predictable in his actions but no longer. Ultimately his ego has been making decisions in recent years and several people that were close to him have written articles stating as such. He’s not going to yield in this war and will do whatever means necessary to extend it. He’s in a similar situation to what Slobadon Milosevic was. Another corrupt politician who abused power and force to eliminate challengers. And you can bet he knows if he ever loses power, he’ll meet the same fate as Milosevic. He ain’t going out like that.



www.rferl.org

The 'State Breaker': Putin's Long Rule

Taking Russia’s reins a quarter-century ago, Vladimir Putin said Russia had chosen democracy and vowed to protect basic freedoms he called the “fundamental elements of a civilized society.” What went wrong?
www.rferl.org www.rferl.org
 
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Velocity173 said:
He’s in a similar situation to what Slobadon Milosevic was. Another corrupt politician who abused power and force to eliminate challengers. And you can bet he knows if he ever loses power, he’ll meet the same fate as Milosevic. He ain’t going out like that.
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:yeahthat:

It's a bit different, though. IIRC, Milosevic was eventually arrested by the Yugoslavians themselves on corruption charges, and they later handed him over (to NATO? to the UN? don't recall) to be charged with war crimes. At the moment, I don't see the Russian people as very likely to arrest Putin. And NATO isn't rushing to save Ukraine, either.
 
SoonerAviator said:
I'm not talking about ending the world, but I doubt the NATO/Europe/US powers would allow such an action to go unpunished. I doubt we'd be willing to return fire with nuclear strikes on Russia, both from an ethical standpoint as well as MAD. However, we've historically done plenty of regime changes by getting leaders "un-alived" or otherwise removed from power. I don't think we'd hesitate to act swiftly on someone like that. Even the DPRC would have to distance themselves economically from Russia if they took that step.
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Oh . . . that would never happen . . .
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Ralph Parmenter Bennett said:
Gotta take issue with the above two posts. Military historical sources consistently show that never less than 82-83% of the German military was deployed within the Soviet Union from June 1941. If Hitler had not invaded the USSR and had adhered to the Soviet/German nonaggression treaty, then it would have been a much different war in western Europe. The USSR could have won their war against Germany with or without Allied supplies.
Other than those killed at Pearl Harbor and offshore from U-boat warfare, America lost 8-10 civilians on the continent from Japanese balloon bombs floating onto our west coast. The Soviets lost 23-25 million citizens. Beware of "zero chance" assumptions of a nuclear war which could be a Very dangerous assumption. We are closer to nuclear war than at any time in world history, the Cuban crisis included. The Russian Federation has a few overseas bases, the US has over 450 OCONUS military bases, 119 within Japan alone. It is vital we do not lose our fear of war so "the sky does not fall". General aviation was grounded during the second war. 1945 was the year of greatest GA aviation accidents unsurpassed to our present day. Also, the greatest number of divorces. Should we slide into global war it will be likely go nuclear and everything you and I have accomplished will be gone and hopes for a vital future erased. I am an old man now but began by awareness at the bottom of a Montana missile tube, then an SSN and am now ex-State and DOD. In my youthful times I had a good case of denial and arrogance but now I fear for our future.
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Again, this isn't WW2 and we will never have that many cockpits to fill. That's why GA was grounded - they needed everyone working to fill those cockpits. You lumped 9/11 in there and said we were "grounded for the duration" which is just blatantly false. I didn't say there's zero chance for a nuclear war; I said there is zero chance that:

Ralph Parmenter Bennett said:
all GA aircraft will be grounded for the duration unless you are a CFI and under the terms of a public law all flight instructors will be immediately drafted.
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SoonerAviator said:
I'm not talking about ending the world, but I doubt the NATO/Europe/US powers would allow such an action to go unpunished. I doubt we'd be willing to return fire with nuclear strikes on Russia, both from an ethical standpoint as well as MAD. However, we've historically done plenty of regime changes by getting leaders "un-alived" or otherwise removed from power. I don't think we'd hesitate to act swiftly on someone like that. Even the DPRC would have to distance themselves economically from Russia if they took that step.
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Some would say that our regime changes started this mess.

We’re pretty good at making a bad situation worse in a lot of 3rd world **** holes. I haven’t finished my coffee yet this morning, but I can’t think of anything comparable to going after Putin though. Trying to un-alive him can have some very steep consequences.
 
Bacho said:
Some would say that our regime changes started this mess.

We’re pretty good at making a bad situation worse in a lot of 3rd world **** holes. I haven’t finished my coffee yet this morning, but I can’t think of anything comparable to going after Putin though. Trying to un-alive him can have some very steep consequences.
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Sure, but if he's launching nukes, he's probably solidified his status as a war criminal and I'm not sure the world powers would keep shooting around to see what city he targeted next.
 
This thread was going pretty well discussing what’s happening over there. But now that it’s been redirected towards US politics, I see the thread getting locked soon. I hope it gets back on track.
 
JOhnH said:
This thread was going pretty well discussing what’s happening over there. But now that it’s been redirected towards US politics, I see the thread getting locked soon. I hope it gets back on track.
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It has been enlightening, but I posted the news clip specifically because I was interested in how drone warfare will affect GA in the US. Since then there have been several commentaries on NPR and last night about 10 min was devoted to it on PBS. It seems to me that increasing our defenses cannot help but place restrictions on our flying. As an example, I fly out of MRB and when I use runway 8 I taxi about 100’ past some percentage of our heavy airlift capability— 10 C17s. If there are any drone defenses there, they are extremely well hidden.
 
Iflydogs said:
If there are any drone defenses there, they are extremely well hidden.
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They probably wouldn't be obvious. Some portion would be electronic rather than ballistic. It's not like AA guns are going to be terribly effective against low-flying quadcopters, right? For the rest I'd be very surprised indeed if there were not extensive development going on for high powered lasers with computer targeting. That sort of thing could look like pretty much anything, really. It's not going to look like quad 50s.

In reality, I suspect today's truth is closer to "there are none".
 
I think our greatest defensive asset is less tangible (and exciting) than an array of surface-to-air weaponry - it lies in the sheer size and distribution of our fleet. It does dwarf that of the Russians, especially when you take all branches and the state national guard assets (MRB mentioned above) into account.

And though Russia itself is bigger than the US, lacking empirical data, I'm still willing to bet our military is more widely distributed, even domestically, than theirs is. Think of how many bases exist in the spaces between Alaska to Florida. Then add our oceanic fleet and overseas bases.

Sure, we're a target-rich environment. But also a very deep and redundant one.
 
Discussing counter-drone capabilities in an open forum is kind of stupid (directed at no specific person)
 
I know we’re talking state actors right now, but one could imagine radical non-state actors engaging in a similar strike against a civilian airport.

If major airports aren’t concerned, they should be. It would be terrible for the industry if a similar attack injured even one civilian.
 
Bob Noel said:
Discussing counter-drone capabilities in an open forum is kind of stupid (directed at no specific person)
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Why? Has anything been discussed that isn’t open knowledge anyway? Has anything been presented on POA that would give an attacker an advantage he wouldn’t have otherwise?
 
Half Fast said:
Why? Has anything been discussed that isn’t open knowledge anyway? Has anything been presented on POA that would give an attacker an advantage he wouldn’t have otherwise?
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You forgot the spillage of chemtrail info here that occasionally occurs. At least we know that capability is working. If you’re in the targeted age range, that is.
 
Bob Noel said:
Discussing counter-drone capabilities in an open forum is kind of stupid (directed at no specific person)
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All the branches have anti-drone tech in service today. It’s no secret. As far as protecting GA airports though, I don’t see that happening.
 
TCABM said:
You forgot the spillage of chemtrail info here that occasionally occurs. At least we know that capability is working. If you’re in the targeted age range, that is.
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At least so far no one has slipped up and accidentally mentioned how we're helping Ukraine with chemtrails over Moscow.
 
Velocity173 said:
All the branches have anti-drone tech in service today. It’s no secret. As far as protecting GA airports though, I don’t see that happening.
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I don’t really, either. Other than exploiting 3-D maneuvering, there’s not much commonality between counter drone and counter air. Detection is the challenge and what works for an RCS > than an ultralight isn’t really suitable for drones, which simply leaves the hammer of airspace closure as the tool, and that doesn’t matter when it comes to drone anyways.
 
I suspect there will soon be some large contracts available to develop counter-drone technologies, if you don't mind working for the Russians.....
 
Half Fast said:
I suspect there will soon be some large contracts available to develop counter-drone technologies, if you don't mind working for the Russians.....
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There’ve been C-UAS tech/systems (and the associated contracts) fielded for a while now.
 
Half Fast said:
In Russia? If so, they didn't work too well.
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Several, apparently.

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/impo...re-currently-protected-by-serp-c-uas-systems/ Important facilities in Russia are currently protected by Serp C-UAS systems - Militarnyi

https://www.uasvision.com/2024/07/10/russia-develops-single-use-c-uas-combat-drone/ Russia Develops Single-Use C-UAS Combat Drone – UAS VISION

https://turdef.com/article/russia-reveals-rapira-c-uas-systems-with-unguided-rockets Russia Reveals Rapira C-UAS Systems with Unguided Rockets | TURDEF

https://www.military.africa/2025/01/algeria-operating-russian-made-repellant-1-c-uas/ Algeria operating Russian-made Repellant 1 C-UAS

https://www.defensemirror.com/news/...d_in_Egypt__Agreement_Signed_during_EDEX_2023 Russian Counter-UAV Systems to be Produced in Egypt: Agreement Signed during EDEX 2023
 
TCABM said:
I don’t really, either. Other than exploiting 3-D maneuvering, there’s not much commonality between counter drone and counter air. Detection is the challenge and what works for an RCS > than an ultralight isn’t really suitable for drones, which simply leaves the hammer of airspace closure as the tool, and that doesn’t matter when it comes to drone anyways.
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Yeah we’ve already had drones fly over bases in the last few years. Whether or not they were full up counter drone systems or not is anyone’s guess. Like you said, detection is the real challenge. You can have systems in place but if it can’t be picked up on radar, it’s gonna get through. I think we’ve done well (Israel) with large drone / missile defense but some guy with a semi truck with swarms of small incendiary drones is the real threat.
 
Bob Noel said:
Discussing counter-drone capabilities in an open forum is kind of stupid (directed at no specific person)
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Stupid or not, it is if high interest now and is the topic of many news programs as I mentioned. Obviously the specifics are classified but I vehemently disagree that it is stupid to discuss it, it is of national interest.Most military blunders are failures of the imagination, consider 9/11.
 
TCABM said:
Several, apparently.

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/impo...re-currently-protected-by-serp-c-uas-systems/ Important facilities in Russia are currently protected by Serp C-UAS systems - Militarnyi

https://www.uasvision.com/2024/07/10/russia-develops-single-use-c-uas-combat-drone/ Russia Develops Single-Use C-UAS Combat Drone – UAS VISION

https://turdef.com/article/russia-reveals-rapira-c-uas-systems-with-unguided-rockets Russia Reveals Rapira C-UAS Systems with Unguided Rockets | TURDEF

https://www.military.africa/2025/01/algeria-operating-russian-made-repellant-1-c-uas/ Algeria operating Russian-made Repellant 1 C-UAS

https://www.defensemirror.com/news/...d_in_Egypt__Agreement_Signed_during_EDEX_2023 Russian Counter-UAV Systems to be Produced in Egypt: Agreement Signed during EDEX 2023
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I suspect Putin wants his money back! :biggrin:
 
Velocity173 said:
Yeah we’ve already had drones fly over bases in the last few years. Whether or not they were full up counter drone systems or not is anyone’s guess. Like you said, detection is the real challenge. You can have systems in place but if it can’t be picked up on radar, it’s gonna get through. I think we’ve done well (Israel) with large drone / missile defense but some guy with a semi truck with swarms of small incendiary drones is the real threat.
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I wonder whether an IRST might do better than a radar for drones. I suspect they have a decent heat signature, especially viewed against empty sky.
 
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