Ukraine Just Re-Wrote the Rules of War

EvilEagle said:
Who knows? Likely user error or they intentionally sent bad gear to Russia??? That thing has been crushing drones in the middle east for years.
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The plot thickens...
 
OK, let me see if I can tie this together: whoever develops and deploys successful anti-drone weapons will be on the gravy train for a long time.
 
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Half Fast said:
I wonder whether an IRST might do better than a radar for drones. I suspect they have a decent heat signature, especially viewed against empty sky.
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EO maybe. I have no idea the heat signature of a laden mechanical swallow.
 
Velocity173 said:
Yeah we’ve already had drones fly over bases in the last few years. Whether or not they were full up counter drone systems or not is anyone’s guess. Like you said, detection is the real challenge. You can have systems in place but if it can’t be picked up on radar, it’s gonna get through. I think we’ve done well (Israel) with large drone / missile defense but some guy with a semi truck with swarms of small incendiary drones is the real threat.
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Well, there isC-RAM, but RCS matters.
 
Drone warfare is a cat-and-mouse game of escalating counter-counter-countermeasures. Nothing stays effective for long. The technology is too adaptable. The battlefield in Ukraine is currently covered with a carpet of fiber optic cable as both sides switch to jam-proof wire guided drones. That will give way to AI autonomy as that tech matures. Drones are also becoming the most effective counter-drone weapon, and that tech will also continue to mature.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Drone warfare is a cat-and-mouse game of escalating counter-counter-countermeasures. Nothing stays effective for long. The technology is too adaptable. The battlefield in Ukraine is currently covered with a carpet of fiber optic cable as both sides switch to jam-proof wire guided drones. That will give way to AI autonomy as that tech matures. Drones are also becoming the most effective counter-drone weapon, and that tech will also continue to mature.
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Well, as Albert Einstein predicted - "I know not with what weapons WW3 will be fought, but WW4 will be fought with counter-counter-counter drones."
He was a smart guy.
 
TCABM said:
Well, there isC-RAM, but RCS matters.
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Yeah C-RAM arrived at Bagram right before I left. It’s a beast. Never saw it in action but would have loved to hear that thing go off.
 
Velocity173 said:
some guy with a semi truck with swarms of small incendiary drones is the real threat.
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Or third country flagged container ships. A good portion of our C-17 fleet is based on the coast near commercial harbors or shipping lanes. I could see a Chinese move against that as part of a Taiwan invasion plan.
 
Velocity173 said:
Yeah C-RAM arrived at Bagram right before I left. It’s a beast. Never saw it in action but would have loved to hear that thing go off.
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Used to wake me up in Iraq. Cool weapon but probably ineffective against the kind of drones the Ukrainians used, especially if flown down among ground clutter.
 
fascinating strike.
I don’t see Putin lobbing a nuke. West would have to respond- as stated above, Russia would be isolated and poor in ways they aren’t today. No one, not even china, would buy their oil. DPRK? Maybe.
Doubt we’d respond w/nukes, but a smart unified western response - attacking every Russian soldier in ukraine with conventional arms? In normal times, thst would be the most likely resonse, IMO.
tens of thousands of RU casualties in a day or two would be hard for even putin to hide, would threaten his rule.
Think we’d never attack RU soldiers in ukraine?
I don’t.
Our troops decimated Russians-wagner mercs-when they attacked our forces in Syria.
https://thewarhorse.org/special-for...-of-battle-with-russian-mercenaries-in-syria/
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/...e_code=1.Mk8.yPUw.GY10HLLxski4&smid=url-share
 
DaleB said:
They probably wouldn't be obvious. Some portion would be electronic rather than ballistic. It's not like AA guns are going to be terribly effective against low-flying quadcopters, right? For the rest I'd be very surprised indeed if there were not extensive development going on for high powered lasers with computer targeting. That sort of thing could look like pretty much anything, really. It's not going to look like quad 50s.

In reality, I suspect today's truth is closer to "there are none".
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I think we should absolutely try our best to make it look like Quad 50s though, even if unnecessary.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Used to wake me up in Iraq. Cool weapon but probably ineffective against the kind of drones the Ukrainians used, especially if flown down among ground clutter.
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Remember the postal worker who landed a gyrocopter on the White House lawn ten years ago? Somebody thought he was a flock of birds on the radar because of how low and slow he was--lost in the ground clutter.

1749224348041.jpeg
 
SoonerAviator said:
I think we should absolutely try our best to make it look like Quad 50s though, even if unnecessary.
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Oh, I totally agree. Hell, just build a quad-50 lookalike, but with 12 or 10 gauge shotgun barrels spitting out an appropriate load of shot.
 
DaleB said:
Oh, I totally agree. Hell, just build a quad-50 lookalike, but with 12 or 10 gauge shotgun barrels spitting out an appropriate load of shot.
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On the GA side of things, what happens if we happen to be near a site when these defenses activate? I'm not confident I can jink in a Cessna.

Pretty sure a few defense companies also sell solutions with proximity fuses. Mini flak isn't something I've trained for yet.
 
Pi1otguy said:
On the GA side of things, what happens if we happen to be near a site when these defenses activate? I'm not confident I can jink in a Cessna.

Pretty sure a few defense companies also sell solutions with proximity fuses. Mini flak isn't something I've trained for yet.
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If it gets to that stage, we’ve got bigger problems to worry about than keeping current doing laps around the pattern.
 
Pi1otguy said:
On the GA side of things, what happens if we happen to be near a site when these defenses activate? I'm not confident I can jink in a Cessna.

Pretty sure a few defense companies also sell solutions with proximity fuses. Mini flak isn't something I've trained for yet.
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Homework.
 
kyleb said:
This is why you need a low wing. ;-) You'd be confident.
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Yeah. I'm sure that the first thing all of those crew members are thinking is how happy they are that they aren't in a B-24 . . .
 
TCABM said:
If it gets to that stage, we’ve got bigger problems to worry about than keeping current doing laps around the pattern.
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ijs, recent events show that the large chunks of airspace can turn into a kill box when a facility is under attack. A lot of stray rounds/flak...
 
Ed Haywood said:
Here is an interesting system that Ukraine is working on. Appears to be basically a simple, lighter version of C-RAM that operates on networked radar data.

www.businessinsider.com

Ukraine is using an AI-powered, automated turret to shoot down Russia's devastating Shahed drones

Ukraine has developed, tested, and deployed the Sky Sentinel, a AI-powered turret that it says can down Russia's Shahed drones and cruise missiles.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
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Since BI is paywalled, here's the photo of the prototype.

1749408177643.png
 
Ed Haywood said:
Here is an interesting system that Ukraine is working on. Appears to be basically a simple, lighter version of C-RAM that operates on networked radar data.

www.businessinsider.com

Ukraine is using an AI-powered, automated turret to shoot down Russia's devastating Shahed drones

Ukraine has developed, tested, and deployed the Sky Sentinel, a AI-powered turret that it says can down Russia's Shahed drones and cruise missiles.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
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The capability and counter measure race will be interesting. Maybe we'll see the return of dazzle camo to disrupt imagine recognition.

iu
 
Ed Haywood said:
Here is an interesting system that Ukraine is working on. Appears to be basically a simple, lighter version of C-RAM that operates on networked radar data.

www.businessinsider.com

Ukraine is using an AI-powered, automated turret to shoot down Russia's devastating Shahed drones

Ukraine has developed, tested, and deployed the Sky Sentinel, a AI-powered turret that it says can down Russia's Shahed drones and cruise missiles.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
Click to expand...
Fix for BI paywall:

http://archive.is/www.businessinsid...hoot-russia-shahed-drones-sky-sentinel-2025-6
 
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