Percent of US population over 17 that could successfully pass exams, and become a private pilot

[Barrett50]

OK. Lets put some meat on this bone, so we don't go off the reservation too far.

Preliminary req of the population before skills: Must be US resident. Must be an adult. Pass a third class. So - eligible in all general respects to begin, and continue nominal private pilot cert through check ride, and pass the written. Percentages are rounded, use the nearest one to your choice, or pick and defend your percent in the thread.

 

[kmacht]

It’s a bad question. I think the vast majority of them could pass it but being able to at that age comes down to motivation to want to pass it. I don’t think many 17 year olds are interested enough in becoming a private pilot so if you forced them to try and do it they would not pass.

 

[Bob Noel]

30, because it was the lowest

I took into account medical as well as financial requirements

 

[TommyG]

Been a CFI for many years. And every year it seems people are just getting dumber.

 

[Jim K]

I'd venture that it takes above average intelligence, so i voted 50%. Admittedly that could be my ego talking.

 

[455 Bravo Uniform]

Less than or equal to 0.2%.

 

[AZEL]

Does passing at 16 count?

 

[MauleSkinner]

30, because it was the lowest

I took into account medical as well as financial requirements

Just looking at the medical requirements, combined with the thread that I’m pretty sure prompted the question. I can’t remember it now, but it seems like I heard a specific percentage that is ineligible for military service due to mind-altering drug use, prescription or otherwise. Seems like it was a pretty high number.

 

[Zeldman]

every year it seems people are just getting dumber.

Than what.??

To be truthful, I can't even spell tset....

 

[Ashara Keliyn]

Do we factor in significant, growing crisis surrounding the overprescription and misuse of Adderall?

 

[decalogue]

Pass like learn the test at ATP or ERU, 80%

Percent who could actually be a actual aviator, 40% id reckon

 

[asicer]

Well, I was going to say 80%, but the number of replies that actually read and understood the OP is already lower than that, so...

Preliminary req of the population before skills: Must be US resident. Must be an adult. Pass a third class. So - eligible in all general respects to begin

I take it that this portion assumes no lying/cheating?

 

[dmspilot]

Been a CFI for many years. And every year it seems people are just getting dumber.

Not just seemingly. They actually are.

Research Confirms It: We Really Are Getting Dumber

A new study shows that IQ levels have been falling since 1975, reversing a 20th-century trend.

science.howstuffworks.com

 

[AZEL]

Been a CFI for many years. And every year it seems people are just getting dumber.

Wait 'till 2505

 

[DeltaCharlie172]

30%. Schools aren't teaching and kids aren't lear[n]ing.

 

[ArrowFlyer86]

Question doesn't make a ton of sense since it's an effort based qualification. What's their incentive? How much time do they have? Can they train every single day free of charge, limited only by their own motivation? What resources do they get to navigate the medical process?

But since we're just spitballing...
If we put a gun to the head of everyone in America age 17+ and told them if they don't pass it's game over? My guess is we'd be the first country to hit 75% of the population being registered pilots. The cases that wouldn't pass would largely be in the older bracket (more cases of insurmountable health problems, worse hand-eye coordination, ...). But if just challenged people to do it with no incentive aside from natural interest? Probably right around the proportion of people who are pilots today. So <1%.

 

[Barrett50]

Question doesn't make a ton of sense since it's an effort based qualification.

Which is what I want to measure. What percent of the otherwise medically qualified adult pop are capable of getting a PPL.

 

[Barrett50]

It would be nice if people stopped inserting their own qualifications or options into the question. I'm trying to find the number of healthy adults which are CAPABLE of getting a PPL. Cost, motivation, time, family, rent, kids, etc are not being measured. Responders are permitted to change their vote, based on this simple criteria.

 

[ArrowFlyer86]

Which is what I want to measure. What percent of the otherwise medically qualified adult pop are capable of getting a PPL.

In that case use my "gun to the head" metric.

 

[falconkidding]

It would be nice if people stopped inserting their own qualifications or options into the question. I'm trying to find the number of healthy adults which are CAPABLE of getting a PPL. Cost, motivation, time, family, rent, kids, etc are not being measured. Responders are permitted to change their vote, based on this simple criteria.

Then its just a simple exercise of medical eligibility or willingness to lie on medical. Probably 75% if they had motivation to work through medical issues, then 50% if they didn't wanna do paperwork.

 

[Barrett50]

Then its just a simple exercise of medical eligibility or willingness to lie on medical. Probably 75% if they had motivation to work through medical issues, then 50% if they didn't wanna do paperwork.

NO! Don't presume anything concerning a medical. They go to an AME, they fill out the form correctly, they get qualified for a 3rd class. End of statement.

 

[Barrett50]

In that case use my "gun to the head" metric.

I did not qualify it as "pass the test or be murdered" or similar. You may use it as your qualification if you like.

 

[Daleandee]

I have no idea but between motivation and cost I'm guessing it wouldn't be very high. It's easier to stare at the glass screen and dream ...

 

[MauleSkinner]

It would be nice if people stopped inserting their own qualifications or options into the question. I'm trying to find the number of healthy adults which are CAPABLE of getting a PPL. Cost, motivation, time, family, rent, kids, etc are not being measured. Responders are permitted to change their vote, based on this simple criteria.

How about what percentage of certificated pilots could pass a Private checkride on a given day?

 

[Barrett50]

Whew. I kinda thought the reference to 'off the reservation' would be a hint not to make up any definitions. This was supposed to be a simple, basic, question about the skills needed to do a task properly. I see I've failed - miserably.

 

[MauleSkinner]

Whew. I kinda thought the reference to 'off the reservation' would be a hint not to make up any definitions. This was supposed to be a simple, basic, question about the skills needed to do a task properly. I see I've failed - miserably.

Part of the problem is you’re only including a subset of the population that isn’t identifiable to start with. Look around you…how many do you think could pass the checkride but you don’t have a clue about their ability to pass a medical?

 

[Barrett50]

Part of the problem is you’re only including a subset of the population that isn’t identifiable to start with. Look around you…how many do you think could pass the checkride but you don’t have a clue about their ability to pass a medical?

I want to bound the subset so that people would not go off the reservation: " Pass a third class. So - eligible in all general respects". The pool are adults who have passed a medical. And that's what I wrote, and that's what I do NOT want to measure.

 

[MauleSkinner]

I want to bound the subset so that people would not go off the reservation: " Pass a third class. So - eligible in all general respects". The pool are adults who have passed a medical. And that's what I wrote, and that's what I do NOT want to measure.

Oh…Have passed a medical, not could pass a medical. That takes us down to somewhere between 16 and 20% of those make it to and pass the checkride.

 

[GaryM]

Which is what I want to measure. What percent of the otherwise medically qualified adult pop are capable of getting a PPL.

The poll won't measure that. It's just collecting guesses from those who respond.

 

[Bob Noel]

It would be nice if people stopped inserting their own qualifications or options into the question. I'm trying to find the number of healthy adults which are CAPABLE of getting a PPL. Cost, motivation, time, family, rent, kids, etc are not being measured. Responders are permitted to change their vote, based on this simple criteria.

welcome to the interweb...

 

[ArrowFlyer86]

Oh, so it's people who already passed a medical? Pfftt.. In that case I'm going to go with 95%+ would pass.

Again this assumes the DPE is looming over them with a Glock during training, written and check-ride to help properly encourage them to discover their inner Charles Lindbergh and pass the test(s).

 

[Hang 4]

Skill and will. Just skill likely ~ 70% add will, likely drops to 50%. This assumes no medical issue and does not consider cost etc.

 

[Daleandee]

The pool are adults who have passed a medical. And that's what I wrote, and that's what I do NOT want to measure.

Gotta toss a flag here. What you wrote in the thread title was:

Percent of US population over 17 that could successfully pass exams, and become a private pilot​

Even still I'll stick with my answer given above ...

 

[Barrett50]

The poll won't measure that. It's just collecting guesses from those who respond.

Guesses from an audience who(mostly) have been through the process, and may likely have a better qualified R^2 probability rank. Guesses in life happen all the time, and I will consider them a form of measurement. A driver going 70MPH makes a guess at how safe they can follow the car in front of them. They don't actually climb out on the hood with a stick and measure. But - it is an empirical measurement still, that relies on the habit, and experience of the person who has the capability to drive.

 

[texasclouds]

100%

I’m pylot, me fly

 

[falconkidding]

NO! Don't presume anything concerning a medical. They go to an AME, they fill out the form correctly, they get qualified for a 3rd class. End of statement.

Okay so take an adult give them a medical. What percentage of those could pass a ppl. 95%. Its not that academically hard, and doesn't require some extra ordinary physical skills. So assuming they have a medical i could drag anyone to ppl.

 

[Mtns2Skies]

I'd venture that it takes above average intelligence, so i voted 50%. Admittedly that could be my ego talking.

I thought this too. Until I became a CFI. Law of averages still applies to pilots.

 

[Jim K]

I thought this too. Until I became a CFI. Law of averages still applies to pilots.

Seriously curious about this...I've generally found pilots to be much more intelligent as a group than the average person I interreact with. Social skills are sometimes lacking (guilty of that myself), but I have yet to meet a pilot under the age of 50ish who I wouldn't describe as "smart". Now some of the guys who came up in the 70's, 80's, and earlier...there's some really smart ones and some jokers. I don't interact with as many pilots as a CFI would though, and my circle is pretty much all recreational...I assume 141 schools could get some tougher cases through with rote memorization.

 

[Bill]

SWAG, emphasis on A because, hey me.

1 in 10 who walk into an FBO to enquire about flight lessons take a lesson

1 in 10 who take a lesson follow on to solo

1 in 10 who solo, follow through and get their certificate

EDIT: and I originally voted 40%, but after watching normal people take 5min to figure out how to dispense gas from a Costco gas pump I drop it to the lowest available, 30%.

 

[Bell206]

or pick and defend your percent in the thread.

All things equal, 80+%. Its technically not hard at the basic skill level. The main question is do they want to which drops the percentage down to <35%.