Percent of US population over 17 that could successfully pass exams, and become a private pilot

Percent of population can become a cert private pilot(not advanced, just the PPL)

  • 30

    Votes: 36 45.0%

  • 40

    Votes: 7 8.8%

  • 50

    Votes: 9 11.3%

  • 60

    Votes: 8 10.0%

  • 70

    Votes: 6 7.5%

  • 80

    Votes: 14 17.5%
  • Total voters
    80
  • Poll closed .
Most people lack the judgement (not aviation-specific judgement learned through flight experience, but just common sense), self-discipline, and willingness to look inside and honestly see and accept their deficiencies.
 
I selected 60%, largely because you didn't state an upper age bound. The adult population includes about 30% over age 55, and with age comes medical conditions that can preclude a PP ticket, plus a slow-down in motor skills and learning ability. If you had included SP, or given an upper age bound, I might have selected 80%.
 
Barrett50 said:
They go to an AME, they fill out the form correctly, they get qualified for a 3rd class. End of statement.
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I took your original question to mean they had to be able to pass a 3rd class. Now it seems like you're looking for the number of medically qualified people who could train and pass PP. Is that correct?
 
Barrett50 said:
NO! Don't presume anything concerning a medical. They go to an AME, they fill out the form correctly, they get qualified for a 3rd class. End of statement.
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I'm still not quite clear which direction you're implying here.

Statistically speaking, there's a big difference between "the total US population," and "the population of US citizens who could pass a medical speaking entirely truthfully on their first try," and "the population of US citizens who could gain a medical if they jumped through every hoop necessary."

I think if you took the second option in the most optimistic scenario -- what proportion of the US population who has never used a federally-illegal mind-altering substance recreationally, has never had a DUI, has never been diagnosed with a learning disability, etc -- and removed the "problems" of finance and motivation (i.e. lessons are free, they live next to an airport, get along well with their good career CFI, don't have a home life to worry about, etc etc), then 90+% of the population would be reasonably able to do it.

If you're looking at the total US population, and saying "how many people could slog through a PPL driving an hour round trip to an airport, paying for their lessons with the recent-ATP-grad CFI instead of paying for their family's needs, bargaining over getting out of the house when there's childcare and chores to be done, when there are many other entertainment options available" then the answer is probably "about as many as currently have a PPL."
 
what % passed, are flying now, but are not meeting minimum standards on most flights??
 
My earlier answer was based on the current number of pilots divided by the adult population in the US.

Here is a different attempt at answering your question, using my own logic but with AI generating results.

I had to do a few iterations of Q&A and finally got it to force feed me an estimate of the IQ that it would take to get a 70% pass on the PPL written. IQ 90.

Then I asked about the percentage of US adults who have an IQ greater than 90. 70%

So there you go. Give it a shot yourself and modify assuming as desired.

I did not ask about passing the practical…
 
Barrett50 said:
OK. Lets put some meat on this bone, so we don't go off the reservation too far.

Preliminary req of the population before skills: Must be US resident. Must be an adult. Pass a third class. So - eligible in all general respects to begin, and continue nominal private pilot cert through check ride, and pass the written. Percentages are rounded, use the nearest one to your choice, or pick and defend your percent in the thread.
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Barrett, I voted 70%, but that's after they clear the medical. My deep concern is that the vast majority of teenagers are either diagnosed with anxiety and/or are on legal or illicit drugs. 12% of 12-17 year olds have used marijuana in the previous year and it's a "have you ever" question on the medical.
 
Becoming a pilot is not about intelligence/IQ or success in other fields, but about ADM. We often see what poor ADM produces. You may excel at math, english, history, science, have a 4.0 grade average but lack good decision-making skills, especially during a high stress situation. Good ADM will determine the outcome much better than a high IQ.
If you fly long enough an emergency situation will arise and the decisions you make are what’s gonna save your bacon. A lot of high profile accidents can be traced to bad decision-making, even before the pilot takes off.
I believe that most people can be trained to become pilots, but how many will be safe pilots? Big difference.
 
I haven't placed any value on any particular human trait, like IQ, intelligence, or strength. There are a lot of intangibles that are part of becoming a pilot. There are pilots who are great book learning and instrument driven flights. Others excel in seat of the pants 'natural' abilities. Some people have a sense of how things relate to other things in the physical world, and explaining how lift increases to the point of stall makes innate sense. Others even after defining and reading about a stall may be shocked, or unable to recognize the translation from the book aspect of the stall to the real world example.

This is also true of radio work. Some people struggle with radio comms. I've been teaching since I was fairly young and getting on the radio never bothered me much, even in the LA basin on a warm Saturday. There are a lot of factors to become a pilot. We have to do a significant group of skills to see that we are able to safely transit the NAS. Add to that, at one point all of us had to demonstrate under tense conditions the ability to accurately and decisively manage everything to do with our plane, in a safe manner.

There's a wide variation in the voting, and I wasn't expecting that. From my time as a teacher, and as a GA pilot for 40 years, I think fewer people every year have the ability, and capability to safely command a single engine land plane in day VFR.
 
Bill said:
SWAG, emphasis on A because, hey me.

1 in 10 who walk into an FBO to enquire about flight lessons take a lesson

1 in 10 who take a lesson follow on to solo

1 in 10 who solo, follow through and get their certificate

EDIT: and I originally voted 40%, but after watching normal people take 5min to figure out how to dispense gas from a Costco gas pump I drop it to the lowest available, 30%.
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Our school was about 1 in 20 / 1 in 3 / 1 in 1.5? for those. If we were gonna wash people out I'd say it'd either be lesson 3 or 4, or they'd get to solo and think "Yep I can do this, nothin left to prove" and bail just after.

The real weird stat we could never figure out is the nonzero number of people who would walk in, drop a full rating block (at the time we did it, this was 5-6 grand) and then we never saw them again.
 
:) First tell me the percentage of the population that's sober and can read.
 
schmookeeg said:
The real weird stat we could never figure out is the nonzero number of people who would walk in, drop a full rating block (at the time we did it, this was 5-6 grand) and then we never saw them again.
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Many moons ago we had a guy (back in the ultralight training days) show up, take one lesson, and wrote a twelve grand check to purchase an ultralight type sport plane from one of the instructors. The checked cleared and to this day we've never heard from or about him ...
 
If you really want a number...

Find the numbers of people who are:

1) Smart enough
2) Healthy enough to pass the medical
3) Wealthy enough to comfortably afford the lessons and stay current afterwards
4) Live close enough to an airport to make it practical
5) Motivated enough to put in the work and stick to something that takes months to complete
 
I’m sticking with 30%

Private pilot has to know the stuff for the written but also pass the oral. Even if they are quick learners and have the grit necessary to read a thousand pages of boring crap, they also need to be coordinated and not suffer from anxiety.

People can get a 3rd class but have anxiety actually flying. Look at the huge number of 20 something’s who don’t drive.

Then drive on the beltway around DC. A quarter of them should never pass a flight test (reckless, bad decisions, short attention spans, etc)

Finally, could 10% of people over 60 pass? I had a couple older friends give it the old college try and give up almost immediately. Successful in life but no chance at a ppl
 
Daleandee said:
Many moons ago we had a guy (back in the ultralight training days) show up, take one lesson, and wrote a twelve grand check to purchase an ultralight type sport plane from one of the instructors. The checked cleared and to this day we've never heard from or about him ...
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His wife found out?
 
Randomskylane said:
Finally, could 10% of people over 60 pass? I had a couple older friends give it the old college try and give up almost immediately. Successful in life but no chance at a ppl
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Interesting thing about age that I’ve only ever seen from one source, but it stuck with me.

The British Gliding Association used to say that if you were at or below the age of 20, it would take 20 flights to solo. For each year of your age above 20, you add a flight.

So essentially a 60-year-old takes 3 times as long as a teenager to learn something new, and 30 hours to solo wouldn’t be unreasonable in an airplane environment.

My grandpa started taking flying lessons when he retired at 62…I have no idea how many hours he had, but he was into his solo cross countries before he had a heart attack that ended his flying. I’ll have to ask my mom if maybe my dad kept his logbook, but I doubt that he did.
 
Randomskylane said:
Then drive on the beltway around DC. A quarter of them should never pass a flight test (reckless, bad decisions, short attention spans, etc)
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I'm not sure you could use that as a projection. I've known a few that were terrible on the road but great in the air and vice versa.
 
I personally knew/know three people that started taking flying lessons and didn't complete

One, a college friend, because he died on a student solo flight where wind conditions were beyond his capability (one instructor I know said at the time that the FBO should never have let him take the airplane)

One, a former co-worker, well, I don't know why he stopped. He is certainly smart enough, coordinated enough, not afraid of flying, probably knows more about aircraft avionics and navigation systems than most people here on POA, ... Next time I see him I have to ask.

One, a former co-work, just couldn't get landings right. I think she had almost 100 hours (and at least a couple of instructors). She is certainly intelligent, good head on her shoulders, has a graduate degree in mechanical engineering, etc. She just couldn't put it together.
 
Historically the completion rate for getting PPL after starting lessons is somewhere around 20%. Most drop out after realizing the time and educational commitment required, others obviously for lack of funds. There was also once a stat on how many PPL were still flying after some number of years, and it was small. Basically the renters slowly drop out, either buying an aircraft or quitting. More may come along, so there is still demand for rentals, though nothing like it was 40 years ago when almost every FBO had a few planes for rent, even twins and high performance machines. But also obviously, that proved to be a losing proposition financially.
 
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that," George Carlin

No way half the population should ever find themselves behind a yoke. We have a highly selective group of above average intelligence. and way above average drive piloting aircraft, and they are still regularly killing planes.
 
Rockymountain said:
highly selective group of above average intelligence.
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Being intelligent and being smart are not necessarily congruent circles on the Venn diagram. I've seen some very, very intelligent people use that ability to intellectually rationalize themselves into doing some very dumb stuff. :D
 
fun thread on bias :lol:

Should start another poll... how many current pilots could pass the private pilot written exam again?
 
UngaWunga said:
fun thread on bias :lol:

Should start another poll... how many current pilots could pass the private pilot written exam again?
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Well, if you want to try it,....

Free FAA practice tests

www.sportys.com www.sportys.com

It's been over a year since I took one, but when it was time for my last couple of BFRs I used it just to see where I stood. Scored in the mid 80s, so they were solid passes without any refresher studying.
 
TommyG said:
Been a CFI for many years. And every year it seems people are just getting dumber.
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I think you're seeing the results of the environment. Aviation involves operating a vehicle with several buttons and levers capable of killing us. Heck, the heli guys have a rotor brake lever.

Meanwhile, in the rest of normal life machinery, software, etc that doesn't protect you from you is gradually litigated or legislated out.
 
MIFlyer said:
Barrett, I voted 70%, but that's after they clear the medical. My deep concern is that the vast majority of teenagers are either diagnosed with anxiety and/or are on legal or illicit drugs. 12% of 12-17 year olds have used marijuana in the previous year and it's a "have you ever" question on the medical.
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No sir,

The specific question related to illegal drug use is Item 18.n, which reads: "Substance dependence or failed a drug test ever; or substance abuse or use of illegal substance in the last 2 years."

Marijuana is illegal, it's a 2-year question.
 
jbarrass said:
Marijuana is illegal, it's a 2-year question.
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Weed and other drugs is going to reignite an awkward convo about in a few years. Seems to be a lot of adults who use but are otherwise maintain a functional life. Wouldn't shock me if that question disqualifies over half the under 35 population.
 
jbarrass said:
No sir,

The specific question related to illegal drug use is Item 18.n, which reads: "Substance dependence or failed a drug test ever; or substance abuse or use of illegal substance in the last 2 years."

Marijuana is illegal, it's a 2-year question.
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Thanks for correcting me, I had thought it was a "have you ever", but didn't go an look at the medexpress form. If it were indeed "have you ever", I agree with Pilotguy that 1/2 the people would be ineligible.
 
MIFlyer said:
Thanks for correcting me, I had thought it was a "have you ever", but didn't go an look at the medexpress form. If it were indeed "have you ever", I agree with Pilotguy that 1/2 the people would be ineligible.
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And the other 1/2 “didn’t inhale”
 
Good point about the older newby pilots. I didn't put an upper limit on the age, so technically anyone in their seniority could attempt it after getting their 3rd class.

I can pass the oral today, and I can pass the flight part, but I would have hella time passing the written now.
 
Pi1otguy said:
Weed and other drugs is going to reignite an awkward convo about in a few years. Seems to be a lot of adults who use but are otherwise maintain a functional life. Wouldn't shock me if that question disqualifies over half the under 35 population.
Click to expand...

read a piece today about cannabinoid (or cannabis) hyperemesis syndrome, or CHS. The symptoms don't sound pleasant.
 
UngaWunga said:
fun thread on bias :lol:

Should start another poll... how many current pilots could pass the private pilot written exam again?
Click to expand...

I probably could, I worked with military and civilian air traffic control systems and avioncis. But I'm not technically "current", I would need a BFR.
 
THWACK! the gauntlet has been presented to the cheek. I will - take the test! :rofl:

I'm predicting about 70%, (hoping)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
edit; results are in!

FAA Practice Test:

74 %(pass, whew)
Categories
Aerodynamic Forces

89%
Aircraft Performance

65%
Aerodynamic Forces

91%
Aircraft Performance

70%

Seems I have a grasp of what's happening up there, but not so much how my flivver runs. I want an extra 10 points to compensate for the glass of Chablis with my steak, and a few beers watching Big10 MCBB.:cheerswine:
 
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Bob Noel said:
read a piece today about cannabinoid (or cannabis) hyperemesis syndrome, or CHS. The symptoms don't sound pleasant.
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That's a new one. Not pleasant at all.
But expanding beyond cannabis, the substance use question will get a lot of people if they were honest (or knowledgeable).
 
I read an article online last year about the CHS with heavy pot users. Man - all I could think of was schadenfreude has come home! Sounds vicious.
 
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