Percent of US population over 17 that could successfully pass exams, and become a private pilot

[flyingcheesehead]

read a piece today about cannabinoid (or cannabis) hyperemesis syndrome, or CHS. The symptoms don't sound pleasant.

Weeks and weeks of hurling? And it's several weeks *after* you quit, which means you'll probably have drug withdrawal to go with it. Yikes.

 

[Warmi]

"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that," George Carlin

No way half the population should ever find themselves behind a yoke. We have a highly selective group of above average intelligence. and way above average drive piloting aircraft, and they are still regularly killing planes.

Above average intelligence ? As far as complexity is concerned, FAA rules and regulations are pretty trivial and just about anyone should be able to pass … it is more about combination of reflexes and certain type of ability to calmly manage relatively simple but highly concurrent problems - if anything ,more similar to race drivers rather than say , scientists…

 

[WDD]

We have a highly selective group of above average intelligence. and way above average drive piloting aircraft,

And don't forget "humility" .....

 

[Lindberg]

No sir,

The specific question related to illegal drug use is Item 18.n, which reads: "Substance dependence or failed a drug test ever; or substance abuse or use of illegal substance in the last 2 years."

Marijuana is illegal, it's a 2-year question.

And hemp-derived "weed" is legal.

 

[JOhnH]

Interesting thing about age that I’ve only ever seen from one source, but it stuck with me.

The British Gliding Association used to say that if you were at or below the age of 20, it would take 20 flights to solo. For each year of your age above 20, you add a flight.

So essentially a 60-year-old takes 3 times as long as a teenager to learn something new, and 30 hours to solo wouldn’t be unreasonable in an airplane environment.

My wife never flew in a small airplane until she was 52. She got her ppl at 53 (around 65 hours, so yeah, longer than most kids take). Then she got her IFR and her HP and Complex endorsement at 63 and about 1,000 hours. She turns 70 this year, has around 1,700+ hours and for her birthday wants to go get her seaplane rating.

 

[Clip4]

About 20% of U.S. adults are considered functionally illiterate.
About 8% don’t speak English.
About 2% are over 85.
About 10% are below the poverty line.
About 25% have been convicted of DUI more than once.

 

[Clip4]

Interesting thing about age that I’ve only ever seen from one source, but it stuck with me.

The British Gliding Association used to say that if you were at or below the age of 20, it would take 20 flights to solo. For each year of your age above 20, you add a flight.

So essentially a 60-year-old takes 3 times as long as a teenager to learn something new, and 30 hours to solo wouldn’t be unreasonable in an airplane environment.

My grandpa started taking flying lessons when he retired at 62…I have no idea how many hours he had, but he was into his solo cross countries before he had a heart attack that ended his flying. I’ll have to ask my mom if maybe my dad kept his logbook, but I doubt that he did.

I doubt a 55 year old student would require 275% more training than a 20 year old as BGA claims. Using current private pilot training data, that would equate to 150 hour 55 year old private pilots as the average.

 

[Bill]

25% on DUI? Wow, far higher than I expected.

 

[JOhnH]

I doubt a 55 year old student would require 275% more training than a 20 year old as BGA claims. Using current private pilot training data, that would equate to 150 hour 55 year old private pilots as the average.

I soloed at 11 hours in 1976, but I don't think it was as difficult as it is today. From the way I remember it (and at my age, memory is sort of "iffy'), I felt my wife's training in 2009 was more involved and difficult than what I went through.

 

[MauleSkinner]

I doubt a 55 year old student would require 275% more training than a 20 year old as BGA claims. Using current private pilot training data, that would equate to 150 hour 55 year old private pilots as the average.

Note that the claim was to solo, not to achieve a certificate.

 

[MauleSkinner]

25% on DUI? Wow, far higher than I expected.

Note that Canada considers DUI a felony, and they won’t let convicted felons visit the country. At my last job there was a period of time where I was the only one who could fly to Canada.

 

[Lindberg]

25% on DUI? Wow, far higher than I expected.

25% of what?

 

[Half Fast]

At my last job there was a period of time where I was the only one who could fly to Canada.

Boeing?

 

[JOhnH]

About 20% of U.S. adults are considered functionally illiterate.
About 8% don’t speak English.
About 2% are over 85.
About 10% are below the poverty line.
About 25% have been convicted of DUI more than once.

I was surprised to find out how accurate this is. But the one about DUIs needs a little more context.

About 3% of US adults have one or more DUIs.
About 25%-30% of those convicted are repeat offenders.

 

[Lindberg]

I was surprised to find out how accurate this is. But the one about DUIs needs a little more context.

About 3% of US adults have one or more DUIs.
About 25%-30% of those convicted are repeat offenders.

That sounds a lot more likely than 25% of adults having a DUI. It also shows that there's a very high recidivism rate.

 

[Half Fast]

That sounds a lot more likely than 25% of adults having a DUI. It also shows that there's a very high recidivism rate.

Think that might be why the FAA insists on so much monitoring?

 

[Albany Tom]

I was surprised to find out how accurate this is. But the one about DUIs needs a little more context.

About 3% of US adults have one or more DUIs.
About 25%-30% of those convicted are repeat offenders.

What I found was a reference that 3% of US adults have one or more DUI's in the past 5 years. I could find a source for "ever"...maybe because there's probably not a way to track who has had one that's still alive.

It also doesn't answer the question of what's the percentage of the US that's sober at any given point in time.

I used to do a volunteer thing where we'd teach middle school kids to fly RC planes. The only screening process was that they had an interest and could show up with a parent or guardian. Over the life of the program we probably taught a couple of hundred kids. Only one of them couldn't learn to fly...they just had some sort of attention span problem where they couldn't track the plane with their eyes and focus on it. So the success rate we had, learning to fly, was easily 99%+. It doesn't mean they learned any rules except basic safety.

But... That was kids, and it was just flying. Not all of the parents could learn, and the kids always picked it up faster. I initially attributed that to the kids having better hand/eye coordination because of their youth. Now I'm thinking it's more likely that the kids actually listened, where some of the adults thought they didn't need to, and that there's probably a lot lower percentage of middle school age on meds or whatever than adults.

So I'll make my answer - sober adults who can read, and will actually listen and be receptive to new information? I'd bet it's 95%. But I bet the fraction of people who qualify for that is maybe 70%. That's also given having a patient instructor.

 

[Tarheelpilot]

View attachment 150411
Wait 'till 2505

I think the only inaccurate prediction of the movie is timeline. It’s coming much quicker than 2505.

 

[WDD]

25% on DUI? Wow, far higher than I expected.

Yeah, but that’s mostly Wisconsin ……..

 

[Dana]

Interesting thing about age that I’ve only ever seen from one source, but it stuck with me.

The British Gliding Association used to say that if you were at or below the age of 20, it would take 20 flights to solo. For each year of your age above 20, you add a flight.

So essentially a 60-year-old takes 3 times as long as a teenager to learn something new, and 30 hours to solo wouldn’t be unreasonable in an airplane environment.

The version I remember is that hours to solo is typically half of your age.

 

[TommyG]

I think you're seeing the results of the environment. Aviation involves operating a vehicle with several buttons and levers capable of killing us. Heck, the heli guys have a rotor brake lever.

Meanwhile, in the rest of normal life machinery, software, etc that doesn't protect you from you is gradually litigated or legislated out.

Learning to fly a plane is easier than having someone learn and explain the different airspace’s, the requirements, and limitations.

The task of starting the plane, taking off, flying level, and landing pretty much a monkey can learn. The weather, ADM, regulations, aircraft systems, weight and balance, navigation. Those are the things I see a decline in. The amount of pilots that I know that can’t fly to another airport 25-30 miles away from their home airport, that are afraid or unable to do that without GPS or ForeFlight. Even though they have been to that airport multiple times is amazing.

 

[Bob Noel]

The task of starting the plane, taking off, flying level, and landing pretty much a monkey can learn.

Are you thinking about "Project X"?

 

[TommyG]

Are you thinking about "Project X"?

Some of the monkeys were smarter than most people are right now.

 

[Albany Tom]

For years, forest rangers have been saying that there's considerable overlap between the smartest bears and the slowest people, with respect to bear resistant containers. Again, though, might just be that bears are more patient and on fewer drugs...but if the end result is the same I'm not sure it matters.

 

[Warmi]

Learning to fly a plane is easier than having someone learn and explain the different airspace’s, the requirements, and limitations.

The task of starting the plane, taking off, flying level, and landing pretty much a monkey can learn. The weather, ADM, regulations, aircraft systems, weight and balance, navigation. Those are the things I see a decline in. The amount of pilots that I know that can’t fly to another airport 25-30 miles away from their home airport, that are afraid or unable to do that without GPS or ForeFlight. Even though they have been to that airport multiple times is amazing.

Thats exactly backwards …. I don’t think I have ever seen or heard about anyone dropping their primary training because they could not pass their written test or weight and balances calculations brought them to the edge of their sanity … people drop all the time because have have hard time mastering real time multitasking required to fly and land a plane ….

 

[NorthEast Ohio]

Thats exactly backwards ….

Maybe, maybe not
As a graduate of a prestigious puppy mill (not that one), who observed 100+ primary students walk through the door every year, it might be safe to divide newbies into two schools of thought: one set of students were book nerds, and the other set naturally gifted with stick and rudder skills (and might be lazy with the books).

Diff’rent strokes for different folks
Nauga, probably

 

[saddletramp]

I've been instructing for over 50 years. I voted 70%. I've seen people become Private Pilots who surprised everyone. It's truly a matter of motivation. How bad do you want it?

Younger people today don't know how to self study. They want it feed to them.

 

[Barrett50]

Well, things are aging well now that people understand where we're going with this checkpoint. Since we've gotten some stats involved, I just duck-ducked the percent of drivers in the US:

As of 2025, 91% of U.S. adults of driving age (18 and older) hold a valid driver’s license, according to updated data from Hedges & Company based on Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) statistics

Which seams high. I also kind of agree that the handling of the aircraft, once a person gets comfy in the air and with the controls is not the sticking point for students, but it's the entirety of the 'command' process including nav, weather, weights, performance, decisions, avionics, etc.

Which sort of implies that driving a car has become somewhat commoditized. Get in a Chevy, or Kia, or a MB, or a Nissan and with a few minor adjustments, the driver can move the car safely in the highway system sufficiently enough to pass the driving test.

30% is gaining in popularity, and I allowed people to change votes. I see that some have changed their initial vote, and that's ok. Motivation: The old saw that 'a mile of street will get you a mile, but a mile of runway will get you a world' is kind of unsold. I recall the change in my lifestyle when I got my license at 16. It was a paradigm shift in how I viewed my world from the seat of a bike, to the seat of a car or MC. While the PPL did change my perspective, it was mainly to me a faster, and more complex way to do the same job as I can do in a car, with much better view.

 

[asicer]

As of 2025, 91% of U.S. adults of driving age (18 and older) hold a valid driver’s license, according to updated data from Hedges & Company based on Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) statistics

Which seams high.

For a while, being able to drive was about 91% necessary for daily life. If not necessary, it sure eased things dramatically. That's certainly changed in the past couple of decades, though. At present, one could have a high paying work-from-home job and have everything delivered to your door.

Which sort of implies that driving a car has become somewhat commoditized. Get in a Chevy, or Kia, or a MB, or a Nissan and with a few minor adjustments, the driver can move the car safely in the highway system sufficiently enough to pass the driving test.

And post-checkride, automation does most of the work.

 

[Saratogalaw]

There is probably also some intelligence differentiator between what it takes to get a pilot certificate versus more advanced ratings, particularly the instrument rating. I learned how to fly in the late 80s before GPS and moving maps. In those days with just needles you had to do virtually everything in your head, including your situational awareness. I think that it was more difficult then to get an instrument ticket and fly instruments generally. Mastering NDB approaches wasn’t easy.

 

[AZEL]

I've been instructing for over 50 years. I voted 70%. I've seen people become Private Pilots who surprised everyone. It's truly a matter of motivation. How bad do you want it?

Younger people today don't know how to self study. They want it feed to them.

I will be the first to admit that 80% (or more) of my "younger cohort" want it "fed to them."

I'm just not old enough to know if that is statistically different than my parents' cohort or my grandparents' cohort.

 

[WDD]

I've been instructing for over 50 years. I voted 70%. I've seen people become Private Pilots who surprised everyone.

Yes, but that’s 70% of / the people who surprised you are already self selected from the general population.