Ohio Governor drops MOAB on his state economy

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by Datadriver, Mar 22, 2020.

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  1. Bill Jennings

    Bill Jennings Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    I do know that GM is stepping up and using one of their automotive electronics facilities to assist in making ventilators. I would assume this not necessary if present manufacturers could keep up with demand, but don't have a cite.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...to-build-ventilators-in-indiana-idUSKBN21A2Y4
     
  2. asicer

    asicer En-Route

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    S. Korea, along with Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan had the "benefit" of learning from the 2003 SARS outbreak. For example, Singapore started taking temperatures at airports and shut it's borders to Chinese travelers on Feb 1, which was a week after Wuhan locked down.
     
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  3. Datadriver

    Datadriver Line Up and Wait

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    It seems that people fall into 1 of 2 camps with no in-between. There are the "doomsayers" and the "deniers". The "doomsayers" want everyone to hide at home for months. The "deniers" want to go about things as usual.

    The moves taken by various shelter in place governors fall into the "doomsayer" category. They have the potential to lead to an economic depression that will last 10 years with a potential $100 trillion loss of GDP (assume 50% reduction of current 20 trill spread over 10 years).

    The "deniers" are out partying on the beach in large crowds.

    I'm looking for more leaders to find a path in between and I don't see many.
     
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  4. azure

    azure Final Approach

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    Yep, I've heard about that project, if not in so much detail; thanks for the link.

    Yes it is clear that manufacturers can't keep up with the demand, but I'm not sure of the reason why. Note that the need for tons more ventilators depends on how many critical cases develop, which in turn depends on the effectiveness of public health measures. That's why I place most of the blame on whoever is responsible for our inability to make sufficient testing available.
     
  5. azure

    azure Final Approach

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    Yep, very true. But again, that we didn't learn from their experience is symptomatic of the blinders we've had on about the possibility. That a pandemic might result from a new zoonotic virus like SARS (also a coronavirus) is NOT news... it is something that the medical community (and some reporters) have been warning us about for years.
     
  6. azblackbird

    azblackbird Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Because up until a few months ago they were heavily taxed items along with other medical equipment. Why produce if you’re going to be taxed to death on your production? Thankfully that tax has been repealed and more medical equipment is now being manufactured.
     
  7. bflynn

    bflynn Final Approach

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    Most people with coronavirus won't get diagnosed, a much higher percentage with the flu will. Its estimated that actual coronavirus cases world wide are in excess of 10 million, but we've identified less than 400,000 of them.
     
  8. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Lmao. Device tax had little to nothing to do with it. Hospitals are the buyers, they have margins to maintain. They are not going to purchase and maintain something for which they do not have a use on a regular basis.
    As a country, we have structured our healthcare system to fundamentally be the least incentivized possible to plan ahead and manage such an outbreak.

    Tim
     
  9. Rcmutz

    Rcmutz Line Up and Wait

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    Aahhhh.... you did say ichigan!
     
  10. azblackbird

    azblackbird Ejection Handle Pulled

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    LMAO... they can’t buy what isn’t being produced. :rolleyes:
     
  11. azure

    azure Final Approach

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    Just like with coronavirus, it is hard to say how many influenza cases go undiagnosed. The only reason I was diagnosed with Type A last month is because I sought medical advice to determine if I should self-isolate. My case was fairly mild, probably thanks in part to getting a flu shot last fall. I had several students report having tested positive for Type A, so I thought I should find out. For what I had, I would not have ordinarily gone to the doctor at all.

    All we can go by is the case fatality rate when we don't know the actual infection rate. The flip side of that, of course, is that with a disease as contagious as COVID-19, that vast pool of undiagnosed infection is also a vast pool of unknown disease vectors spreading the infection, and a big part of the reason we can't control its spread.
     
  12. Datadriver

    Datadriver Line Up and Wait

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    I'm pretty sure you have to buy parts from China
     
  13. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    LMAO... Nobody's going to produce something that won't be bought. :rolleyes:
     
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  14. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Deaths come in the neighborhood of 3 weeks after initial infection. If you look at the number of infections we had 3 weeks ago, it's no surprise that we haven't had a lot of deaths yet. The worst is yet to come.
     
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  15. DavidWhite

    DavidWhite Final Approach

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    Don't come in here with your pesky facts Kent!
     
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  16. asicer

    asicer En-Route

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  17. Bell206

    Bell206 En-Route

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    He's not the only one worrying about it. So are 10s of millions of other people also. ;)
     
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  18. azblackbird

    azblackbird Ejection Handle Pulled

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    The state of NY/Cuomo had plenty of opportunities to buy ventilators. How come he didn’t knowing that a pandemic was in their disaster plans? I know why. I’ll leave it to you to do your own research on what the truth is.
     
  19. Half Fast

    Half Fast En-Route

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    Perhaps we could have been BETTER prepared, but to keep things in perspective we were better prepared than any other country. US preparedness ranked #1 out of 195 countries surveyd.

    https://www.ghsindex.org/

    https://www.ghsindex.org/country/united-states/
     
  20. azure

    azure Final Approach

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    Would be interesting to see the 2020 GHS index, when it comes out. I suspect they will have to reassess our preparedness in light of what has happened over the last month and a half or so...
     
  21. Half Fast

    Half Fast En-Route

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    I would say something about 2020 hindsight, but it would make a terrible play on words......

    :D
     
  22. DavidWhite

    DavidWhite Final Approach

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  23. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Just say no?
     
  24. Bill Jennings

    Bill Jennings Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Economically not feasible to be bigly prepared. I'll tell you what, when this is all done, make a business case to build, stock, and staff empty hospitals just in case. I'll bet you'll have people tripping over themselves to loan you the money. Not.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  25. Bill Jennings

    Bill Jennings Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Oh, and while I'm thinking about it, preparedness also starts at home. Have decent food supply on hand, but more importantly, people should have at least six months of after tax income per household wage earner saved up in their rainy day fund. And people should be fit, active, not overweight, and shouldn't smoke/vape as these things increase the chances of lung damage.
     
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  26. kyleb

    kyleb En-Route PoA Supporter

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    Absolutely right. You cannot prepare for everything or you'd have warehouses full of doomsday supplies and equipment covering the countryside. You (we) have to mostly rely on adaptability to overcome new threats.
     
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  27. kyleb

    kyleb En-Route PoA Supporter

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    The savings thing is great, but the reality is in our consumer society, the vast majority of people would rather have a new car or cellphone than put back a couple of weeks of pay. So when we do have an event, the government steps in and fixes it for the folks with the new phones and cars. That just trains them to do the same thing next time because Uncle Sam will be there to make it all better <again>.
     
  28. Bill Jennings

    Bill Jennings Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Oh I agree, I'm just tired of those who do have common sense and plan for a rainy day being forcibly taxed to pay for those who don't.
     
  29. dtuuri

    dtuuri En-Route

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    Having never studied economics I don't see how giving trillions to people who haven't produced anything isn't a communist solution to a capitalist problem. Now, if it's a loan everybody has to pay back... :dunno:
     
  30. Chip Sylverne

    Chip Sylverne En-Route

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    Fear is the poison of our lives.
    I wonder what one of those "bubble head" ventilators you see in use in Italy costs to manufacture. From the looks of it not much, nor does it look complex. Even if such equipment need not be manufactured and stockpiled, certainly plans for rapid production could be in place, if an early warning system were in place.

    My understanding is the valves for them are being manufactured on an emergency basis on 3D printers. Hell, we could build Liberty ships in 40 days.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  31. Chip Sylverne

    Chip Sylverne En-Route

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    Fear is the poison of our lives.
    Of course, that presumes maintaining some kind of domestic manufacturing base, and not always chasing the lowest cost provider.
     
  32. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    There was an article about GM working with a ventilator company to mass produce them. I forget he name of the company, GM stated they have the capability to manufacture or supply 95% of the parts; but they are looking for sources for the remaining 37 (I think those were the numbers). And those 37 parts were effectively the "brains and sensors" of the ventilator.

    Ford has announced a similar deal working with GE; in this case Ford is going to use a 3D prototype system to supply the majority of the parts to produce 1000 units a month to start while mass production ramps up. In this case; GE will focus on supplying the critical "brains and sensors" and Ford handles the assembly.

    My point is, those systems are much more complicated than you realize. They have to have sensors and enough smarts to change pressure based on the person inhaling/exhaling.... This is not the old simple mechanical lungs based system.

    In terms of the Liberty ships; it took years to tune and build the supply chain to get to that rate. And the 40 days was only the portion.

    Tim
     
  33. Rcmutz

    Rcmutz Line Up and Wait

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    There is also some thought about using Auto - CPAP machines as low cost or part of a low cost solution.
     
  34. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Actually, it is possible to be prepared. A plan, even an imperfect plan, will have a better outcome than no plan. In 2018, the plans the Federal government had were dismantled.
    Combined with the current "death of expertise" and dismissing of experts has actually placed us in the current situation. South Korea is the perfect example; where the plan and reality did not match. But executing the plan, and then adjusting has allowed the country to be surgical instead using a sledge hammer.

    Tim
     
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  35. azure

    azure Final Approach

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    Agree... but this is getting into IBTL territory...
     
  36. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Ah, but how are facts against TOS? :)
    Spin on the facts is the issue.

    Tim
     
  37. azure

    azure Final Approach

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    Based on what Mari wrote in a different thread, I suspect the MB feels differently about such statements as "dismissing of experts". Would be nice if they clarified... :(
     
  38. Everskyward

    Everskyward Administrator Management Council Member

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    Speaking for myself, this is a fine line. If you can discuss the subject without getting into veiled (or unveiled) insults to either side of the political aisle, I would say that it OK. However, it seems that some are unable to resist. Some also get pleasure out of pushing the moderation envelope. Try to tone down the emotion.
     
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  39. Bill Jennings

    Bill Jennings Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    It takes guts, but what should have happened once we learned of this in Wuhan was total incoming shutdown at all US borders. Those that want to leave, OK, go. Those who want in, including US nationals on travel, so sorry, you're going to have to ride this out wherever you may be. If nobody gets in, the virus doesn't get in.
     
  40. azure

    azure Final Approach

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    The trouble is, it would likely have already been too late... because of the incubation period, because most cases are mild, even subclinical, and because of the fact that China suppressed the truth for as long as they could (hope that's not too political). Might have slowed things down some, given us a little extra time - it's been suggested, not unreasonably, that Italy's open policy toward China was partly responsible for their getting overwhelmed so quickly and so early - but we might be not too far behind where we are now, and with exponential growth, the result was pretty much a foregone conclusion once the infection took hold here.

    As has been said before, the only alternative to shutdown in a global pandemic is widespread, universal testing availability. We were not, and still are not, prepared to do that. So we are, where we are. :(
     
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