Ohio Governor drops MOAB on his state economy

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by Datadriver, Mar 22, 2020.

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  1. Chip Sylverne

    Chip Sylverne En-Route

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    Fear is the poison of our lives.
    Maybe it should be the old "mechanical lungs" system. At least until the smarter systems are more widely available. They worked well enough during the polio epidemic. I had a family member spend some time in one back then.

    Can you provide a reference for this article? I 'd like to see it.
     
  2. Chip Sylverne

    Chip Sylverne En-Route

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    Fear is the poison of our lives.
  3. azblackbird

    azblackbird Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Can definitely tell you’ve been watching way too much of the MSM. :rolleyes:
     
  4. David Megginson

    David Megginson Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Just a warning—every country's circumstances are different, but it looks like the US might be on track for a serious outbreak, like the ones in Italy or Spain, where the medical system gets overwhelmed. That means a lot of bad things, including hospitals turning away people with other issues like heart attacks or strokes. Please isolate and be careful—you're our neighbours, and we care about you. This is going to take months, not weeks.

    https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1242798008170938369

    ET9OI5KXQAgiMMV.jpeg
     
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  5. azblackbird

    azblackbird Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Not even close. Spain/Italy are single payer socialized health care systems for the masses. If you’re rich you get the best care. If you’re poor or elderly... well it sucks to be you.
     
  6. David Megginson

    David Megginson Pre-takeoff checklist

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    I hope you're right, but I know that hospitals in NYC are already running out of basics like surgical masks, and it's just early days. The way healthcare's funded doesn't seem to make a big difference for emergencies, because they're triaged anyway (even in the US)—when the ambulance squeals to a stop at the hospital, they don't have different entrances for different bank balances. I wouldn't put too much faith in economics to protect from epidemics.
     
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  7. David Megginson

    David Megginson Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Again, I hope you're right, and I hope the best for all my American pilot friends.
     
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  8. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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  9. azblackbird

    azblackbird Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Definitely not from the doom and gloom POS MSM. Do your own research and you’ll find out that I’m speaking the truth.
     
  10. David Megginson

    David Megginson Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Denial is the first stage of grief. I went through it a bit earlier: "well, we managed SARS, so we can manage this," so I can't throw the first stone.

    I'm hoping to get to acceptance soon, but I'm not quite there yet, and still struggling (part of me misses the false comfort of when I was in the denial stage, convincing myself it wasn't going to be a big deal, there was going to be a magic solution, etc). The world is never going to be the same again as it was before this, just like we didn't go back to the Edwardian world after WWI ended, so we have to let go and say goodbye.

    Maybe the new world will be better in some ways: that's a reason for hope.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kübler-Ross_model
     
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  11. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I guarantee you that if the state of New York put out an RFP for a bunch of ventilators, someone would have stepped up to produce them. Demand drives the economy, not supply.

    And we can definitely tell that you've been watching way too much of the fringe media. :rolleyes:
     
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  12. Pilots Of America Management

    Pilots Of America Management MC Announcements and Communication Management Council Member

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    Don't feed the trolls...
     
  13. azblackbird

    azblackbird Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  14. German guy

    German guy Cleared for Takeoff

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    Same here in MI. One of the largest hospitals is already running out of capacity, even though we are still at the very beginning of the pandemic. Supplies for basic things like masks and face shields are supposedly also already about to run dry.

    I wouldn't bet that we will do much better than Italy or Spain, considering the medical issues many people in the US have and considering that we have even fever ICU beds available than these countries:
    [​IMG]

    Statistically, the trajectory also doesn't look very promising with the number of cases in the US doubling every 2 - 3 day and no indication of a significant slow down.
    The US has so far reported 823 dead and only 354 recovered. While one could argue that recovery takes longer than dying, we're certainly not off for a good start.
     
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  15. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser!

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    IBTL.
     
  16. Jim Rosenow

    Jim Rosenow Line Up and Wait PoA Supporter

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    Almost time to go watch our Gov's daily 2PM briefing and get some factual, up-to-date info direct from the Health Dept (concept!). I've noticed it goes down better with a scotch in hand....cheers! :)

    Jim
     
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  17. DavidWhite

    DavidWhite Final Approach

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    That’s really weird because it sounds like you’re talking about the United States!
     
  18. azure

    azure Final Approach

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    Strange... a couple of minutes ago this thread was marked "not open for further replies", and now it's open again. A post of mine was deleted because it "referred to a deleted post". Looks like the MC has been busy, and I'm out of the loop...
     
  19. danhagan

    danhagan Pattern Altitude

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    I'm in the medical business. All of our physicians have become "employees" of HCA or Tenet as they could not make ends meet and pay bills under the schedule B reimbursement rates (step 1 to socialized medicine). My competitor imaging centers have closed. We're directly across from two major hospitals and our focus is basically only sonograms. Yesterday, we sent 3 ectopic pregnancies that were bleeding internally direct to the operating room (they had been scanned and diagnosis missed in recent days), had 3 incomplete miscarriages that required D&C, one patient direct admit for DVT. FEMA and the local medical society are hunting for masks for my crew as we don't have many ... we haven't used what little we have as there are currently only 14 COVID 19's in El Paso (yes, I know the real number will be much higher). Once our PPE is exhausted, we will close ....

    Reason for all this detail? We're nearly socialized medicine already and you're about to see how poorly prepared the U.S. medical system has become ... will the government put a strict lock down on the flare up areas like New York? Will have to wait and see ...
     
  20. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    @danhagan

    Curious on though process about waiting until COVID-19 is local before using PPE.

    Tim
     
  21. David Megginson

    David Megginson Pre-takeoff checklist

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    They're triaging the equipment because it's in desperately-short supply. A friend of my daughter is a nurse in a U.S. hospital (not in the COVID-19 ward), and she's had to reuse the same mask several days in a row, which is very unsafe. Doctors are 3D-printing masks in many countries, even though they're substandard, b/c they're better than nothing.

    The supply of PPE is something that will get better in a few weeks. In both Canada and the U.S., companies are ramping up production (or switching other assembly lines to PPE), and we should have it hitting the hospitals in April. Let's just hope it can keep up with demand. It's critical, because if too many doctors and nurses get sick themselves, it won't matter how many ICU beds or ventilators we have.

    Stay safe, everyone. You all matter (whether we agree politically or not).
     
  22. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    @David Megginson

    I get the triage aspect. No just wondering why have PPE before COVID-19; and suddenly not use it for what was considered previously valid reasons. e.g. protect against Flu...

    Tim
     
  23. David Megginson

    David Megginson Pre-takeoff checklist

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    It's being redirected to medical staff working with COVID-19, because of the shortages. We were really caught off balance in a lot of G20 countries (like Canada, the U.S., and the U.K.), because we have financially-efficient, lean, just-in-time-delivery-style medical systems, designed to meet normal demand. We didn't have stockpiles of extra lab capacity for testing, extra doctors and nurses, extra ICU beds, extra PPE, extra ventilators, etc. like some other countries.

    We won't make that mistake in the future, I hope, but we have to find a way through this crisis first. Countries with what we'd normally call bloated, inefficient healthcare systems like South Korea or Japan are doing better, because they did have that excess capacity; it looks bad on an annual financial report, but it is coming in handy now.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
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  24. German guy

    German guy Cleared for Takeoff

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    The number of deaths is doubling in less than 3.5 days, it seems like this will rather accelerate:
    covid-confirmed-deaths-since-10th-death.png

    We are currently at 918 deaths, we'll be at almost 15,000 in two weeks if the numbers continue to double every 3.5 days.

    The number of cases doubles roughly every 2.5 days, we're currently at 64,670. We'll be at over 4 million in two weeks, if(!!) we stay on the current trajectory. The actual numbers will likely be much higher since they can't currently even test all patients who are showing severe symptoms.

    They also just reported that the second major hospital in Detroit already reached its maximum capacity!
     
  25. Rcmutz

    Rcmutz Line Up and Wait

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  26. Wagondriver

    Wagondriver Filing Flight Plan

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    A few months of this and the death toll from crime and civil unrest will easily outpace any coronavirus. A few months and it will take many years to recover financially.

    However, I did find that airplane mechanics and flight schools are considered essential by DHS. I've got a checkout and instrument lesson planned for monday. Hopefully the check ride later in the week!
     
  27. asicer

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  28. rpadula

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  29. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser!

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  30. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Some very bad math. Never listen to someone who charts exponential growth on a linear chart. The difference between a US scenario that caps at 140k and one that caps at 140m would be in-perceivable on his chart.
     
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  31. bnt83

    bnt83 Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    How many counted virus kills are actually medical errors?
     
  32. Rcmutz

    Rcmutz Line Up and Wait

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    Just read through this. As an engineer, I found it very interesting. Especially the part about a second wave. It does appear that his modeling captures the actual cases reported to date. That is a good sign of the accuracy of the model.
     
  33. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    It's really not. It's comparing e.g South Korea, who is provably NOT under-counting (a test-and-track strategy doesn't work if it's undercounted), to the US who is provably under-counting (the 3 states with the most cases only test hospital admissions).
     
  34. David Megginson

    David Megginson Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Exactly. Fatalities make a better comparison for the severity of the crisis in different countries—they're less likely to be undercounted—but they can lag initial infection by up to 4 weeks, so you're planning based on infection data that's nearly a month old. In an epidemic where cases double every 2–4 days on the up-curve, that's pretty-much useless information.

    And in reply to other post, yes, logarithmic-scale charts make exponential growth look less scary. So do funny cat videos. Pick whatever works for you for managing your anxiety, as long as you know that's all it's really useful for.
     
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  35. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    It's not about scary vs. not scary. It gives a very different view of progression. Let's take Italy. E.g.

    Can you tell where Italy will peak from here? 100k? 1m? 10m?

    upload_2020-3-26_11-30-16.png

    Now look at logarithmic. Ok, they're going to peak at or around 100k. Maybe a bit over but not in the millions.
    upload_2020-3-26_11-31-2.png
     
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  36. David Megginson

    David Megginson Pre-takeoff checklist

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    I see two major discontinuities in that curve already, even with the logarithmic flattening.
     
  37. German guy

    German guy Cleared for Takeoff

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    Exactly, you can't tell at this point where it will stop. Considering the measures they are introducing, it is also to be expected that the curve will soon flatten. It will still not tell you where it will stop.


    Sorry, you're on the wrong track here. This is not how to read a logarithmic chart. All it does is that it makes smaller values more visible.
     
  38. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    This!!! It'll also introduce a downward curve, even on something that is still growing exponentially.

    Here is a y = x^2 function. Day 1, 1 case. Day 2, 4 cases. Day 3, 9 cases, and so on. It only looks relatively shallow because the chart axes are not 1:1.

    Exponential.png

    Now, here is the EXACT SAME CHART, with NO SLOWING OF GROWTH, on a log scale:

    Exponential-logscale.png

    The *only* reason for a log scale is to show small values early on... And that's better done via other means, IMO. Humans aren't very good at correctly interpreting log scale charts, so pretty much all of them are bull$#!+.
     
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  39. rpadula

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    That was kind of the point of my post Kent. I found it interesting to see someone’s math model behind their graphs. I didn’t take statistics in college, but had plenty of probability (ugh Poisson arrivals - shudders). The graphs look to me like a cumulative probability distribution, which is range-bound from 0 to 1. No log scale necessary.

    I also find it amusing that the “bad math” agrees with @deonb eyeballs for Italy. 115k from the formula vs “at or around 100k. Maybe a bit over but not in the millions.” hmmm.
     
  40. weilke

    weilke Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The assumption unerlying that graph is based on the idea that there is a fixed relationship between the number of actual cases and the number of reported cases. What this ignores, at least for the US, is a high degree of heterogeneity in the reporting data. Along the course of this thing, in the small window that I am looking at, the turn around for a test has been between 12hrs and 7 days. With testing capacity ramping up, I view the apparent 'acceleration' in the US case numbers as potentially a reporting artifact. In the countries like Japan that have more testing available than they have patients and a more centralized health buerocracy to record the results, there is more of a fixed relationship between number of actual cases per day and number of reported cases.

    Similar caution has to be applied to any chart that uses deaths as the 'more valid' measure to gauge the severity of the event in different countries.
    - the time between infection and death is variable, some die early from respiratory complications, some die late in the course from cardiac issues.
    - the case fatality rate is dramatically different for populations with different demographics. Korea and germany had a different age structure from italy and washington state. As other populations with a different age structure get 'recruited', the fatality rate goes up or down.
    - case fatality rate is affected by the capacity of the health system to deal with the issue. While I consider the reports out of italy and spain anecdotal, if a substantial number of hospitals 'caps out' on vent beds, you may see a jump in fatality rate that has no relation to the number of infections.
    So, gauging the dynamics of the pandemic on 3 week old noisy data is imho a fools errand.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
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