MOSAIC does NOTHING to lower the cost of GA

pfarber

pfarber

Pattern Altitude
Joined
Jun 20, 2021
Messages
1,653
Display Name
pfarber
I'm still hoping that someone can 'splain to me why MOSIAC is a big deal. I get that you are paying half the cost for half the privileges (no savings there) but what is the expected lowering of costs going to be?

Airplanes are not going to get cheaper to the point of any kind of critical mass. A new LSA is still six digits. 99.98% of the population are never going to own a NEW aircraft (currently .02% own a GA AC of *any* cost.)

Tecnam and Pipistrel? $200k+
RV-12is $150k and you have to build it
Sling $200k

How is MOSAIC gonna help the average wage earner ($60k/year) at all?
 
I viewed it as more of a way to help those that’s health keeps them in the sport category. The only way I see aviation getting more affordable is if GA becomes more of a hot commodity and causes lots of factories to open. Which seems unlikely without some large catalyst given the regulatory environment. Sure sport will help demand for things like c172s and maybe increase the new planes purchased and put a little downward pressure on used prices, but extremely doubt it’ll be much.

Edit: with all the planes gulfstreams pushing out the door, maybe in a downturn that market will be flooded and we can all go in on a used high time Gulfstream. ;)
 
Last edited:
There’s still the ultralight segment for lower cost, but anything that flies reliably is not going to be cheap. Personal drones may come close to being more affordable in the long run, IMHO.
 
pfarber said:
I'm still hoping that someone can 'splain to me why MOSIAC is a big deal. I get that you are paying half the cost for half the privileges (no savings there) but what is the expected lowering of costs going to be?

Airplanes are not going to get cheaper to the point of any kind of critical mass. A new LSA is still six digits. 99.98% of the population are never going to own a NEW aircraft (currently .02% own a GA AC of *any* cost.)

Tecnam and Pipistrel? $200k+
RV-12is $150k and you have to build it
Sling $200k

How is MOSAIC gonna help the average wage earner ($60k/year) at all?
Click to expand...
Why would anyone expect aviation to be any less expensive? Compare to the price of a Porsche 911 - a basic sportscar.

If you want a low initial cost, find an older used plane that meets the new requirements (like the earliest Bonanzas).
 
pfarber said:
I'm still hoping that someone can 'splain to me why MOSIAC is a big deal.

How is MOSAIC gonna help the average wage earner ($60k/year) at all?
Click to expand...
Buy an EAB, take the LSRI class, and perform your own condition inspections without having to pay (in some cases) extortion.
 
So, first off, inflation has affected prices. Basically, almost everything is twice what it was pre-Covid from salad dressing on up. If you don't believe me, find some old receipts and go to the grocery store. So your Pipistrel was also closer to $100K pre-Covid, too. Materials and labor index to the price of goods and living.

Second, that's the top end of the market. I think you're going to see things on the bottom end adjust in the next 6-12 months as people realize that they can buy a 172 and fly it instead of a Champ. As much as I love vintage taildraggers, I think their artificially-inflated value due to being the chosen light-sport options will be dropping as older pilots are no longer forced into them to fly as a downgraded sport pilot.

Third, as manufacturers figure out how to work Sport Aircraft - S-LSAs - into the commercial market, you'll see some sport aircraft being bought for commercial purposes like flight training and aerial photography and such, and that will help manufacturers commit to more production, but that's going to take a year or two to really ramp up.
 
pfarber said:
I'm still hoping that someone can 'splain to me why MOSIAC is a big deal.
Click to expand...
Well if you haven't figured that out by now, then probably wont be able to add much more. But it basically expands the recreational side of the GA market by offering more options at different levels, it provides new routes to economically sustain these levels, and it may open up a new level of private aircraft ownership in the coming years provided the market responds positively to these endeavors.

pfarber said:
Airplanes are not going to get cheaper to the point of any kind of critical mass.
Click to expand...
Except the airworthiness and certification points of MOSAIC dont go into effect until next year. So while you are using current options for your assumptions, perhaps wait until the first new SLSAs are released in the next several years before trying to make your case.

pfarber said:
How is MOSAIC gonna help the average wage earner ($60k/year) at all?
Click to expand...
One option it will allow them purchase a used E/AB and maintain it to include the condition inspection once he obtained his LSRI. That was not an option pre-MOSAIC. While I don't think it will drastically increase the Part 91 recreational market size in general, I believe it will eventually promote a shift away from the older legacy airframes in that sector on several levels. And if that shift creates enough of a buzz for LSA OEMs then we may just see an increase in the market as the new models are released.
 
MOSAIC is already lowering the cost of GA to the FAA (and the taxpayers who subsidize non-rev hobbyists) by getting people off the aeromedical books.
 
Doesn't save me a dime. Yes, I can fly a 172 instead of my current ride. And, yes, it will be faster, and can carry more ****. A lot more ****. And go further between fuel stops. And be faster - may not seem fast to you, but Cub speeds vs 172 speeds is a big difference.

But it won't save me a dime.
 
pfarber said:
I'm still hoping that someone can 'splain to me why MOSIAC is a big deal. I get that you are paying half the cost for half the privileges (no savings there) but what is the expected lowering of costs going to be?
...
How is MOSAIC gonna help the average wage earner ($60k/year) at all?
Click to expand...
Besides being able to go EAB, the average wage earner also no longer needs to jump through $$$$-$$$$$$ medical exams because of a defunct diagnosis given for the convenience of a teacher or parent when they were children. They can fly planes like a 172 now, which opens up a pleathora of rental and training options that previously were unavailable to them unless they spents oodles of money proving health and fitness to FAA Aeromed.

And that is a lot bigger of a deal (and cost savings) with aspiring pilots of my age group and younger, as they are much more likely to have been "labeled" as children than previous generations.
 
I make more than 60k but I will never own a new plane (be it LSA, MOSAIC, or certified) unless I build it. With an antique taildragger, I'm already scavenging at the bottom of the market.

Short term, folks moving to MOSAIC will start unloading their legacy 600kg LSAs. 5 years ago, you could get a CT in the 70k range... and it looks like you still can, whereas other prices have gone up substantially. Getting into a <25 year old plane instead of a >60 year old plane sounds like progress to me.

Longer term, as @Bell206 mentioned, as certification costs fall (or at least don't rise as fast), the folks buying the new inventory will free up nicer hand-me-downs for the rest of us.
 
The “give every kid that isn’t listening to the first year teaching teacher’s commands ridellan”, era and the made some bad decisions as teenagers or as a college student but 20 years latter are very productive successful people with enough disposable income to follow there childhood dreams of flying but haven’t gotten into it because after a little research into the costs, complexities, and no sure outcome of MAYBE getting a SI will greatly benefit from this. Prior restrictions from unavailability of CFI’s who had airplanes that met sport pilot regs was the main bottle neck (in my opinion).. there is/was one (and only one) that I know of within a 3 hour commute of where I live. His schedule on flight circle is and has been booked consistently out over three months since I started going to him for review sign offs in 2018.

Edit: I do not fall under the examples I provided, but know many others whom I assume probably due. He was my instructor when I first learned, and I flew my first solo under his signature. I enjoy flying with him (he still teaches me new things every time… to be fair he had me doing chandels at 8 hours and I deeply respect him).
 
Last edited:
Rarefied said:
I viewed it as more of a way to help those that’s health keeps them in the sport category.
Click to expand...
That’s kinda what I’ve seen it as too. Which is to say, it seems more likely to get previous (typically older) pilots back/still into flying rather than to add big numbers of medically disqualified younger people to the ranks.

And I’m not sure it’ll actually reduce cost: seems to me driving up the demand for legacy planes now MOSAIC’d without increasing supply will have the predicted effect, actually.
 
MauleSkinner said:
I haven’t actually read the documentation. Is reducing cost a stated goal? And if so, is it a blanket goal or is it to reduce specific costs?
Click to expand...
I may be mistaken but, whether stated in the documentation or not, it seems the impression on forums like this is that it’ll make flying more affordable. I’m not sure I’m seeing that.

I may be misinterpreting the excitement, though.
 
MauleSkinner said:
Is reducing cost a stated goal?
Click to expand...
I've never read about any such goal, but the discussions I seen and heard on MOSAICs cost impact were mainly on the support side. I believe the E/AB LSR change will initially offer the most noticeable benefit once the training system gets up speed and people can more easily obtain their LSRI. I know of 3 owners who will save an average of $1000 per year on that alone. I believe their will also be time savings and increased flexibility. However, I don't think the full impact will be evident until all of MOSAIC is implemented next year provided the market takes full advantage of whats possible.
 
crash7 said:
For those that would otherwise have to do thou$and$ of dollars of tests to satisfy some dude in OKC, that’s a cost savings.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah, and it’s spending that would have an uncertain outcome, including potential for denial. So it reduces cost tremendously and eliminates the risk of not ever being able to fly again.
 
idahoflier said:
I suspect you will never be convinced, but this took less than 15 seconds to find:


$55K or less for an airplane that has 150 hours on it! Take a two day class and you can perform the condition inspection on it. You're only in it for gas, insurance and parts for the lifetime of the aircraft. Seems pretty affordable to me! Thanks MOSAIC!!!
Click to expand...
You misspelled E/AB.

MOSAIC did nothing to lower the cost of low cost flying. Also a there are way more cheaper certified planes... Tri-pacer perhaps? I won't do the math but a $55k plane with insurance and hangar is still out of reach for an average person.

See, MOSIAC didn't change anything. You could have done everything before Oct 22nd.
 
Tools said:
Was the goal more affordable, or DOABLE?

If you wanna do it, you’re gonna do it. Now more can legally, and not just spend money on THAT aspect.
Click to expand...
I get that the drivers license thing can open more people to the POSSIBILITY of SP. But its still a $10k effort to pay $200/hr

I don't see the maths working out at an average persons income level. Once you top $120-150k then its doable... but that also puts you in the top 15%ish of wage earners.

With a drivers license and $60k you ain't doing much flying, or owning.
 
StraightnLevel said:
Why would anyone expect aviation to be any less expensive?
Click to expand...
That was one of the selling points. It costs less to fly. You pay half the cost for literally half the privileges. The new LSA specs were 'supposed to bring a new wave of manufacturers of affordable AC. LOL NO. I can't find a LSA that's new for less than $200k

This is what the geniuses at EAA said :

SA 2.0 substantially cuts these costs for any aircraft meeting the new definition: four seats, constant-speed propellers, retractable landing gear, and fewer restrictions on powerplants (including allowing electric power). The result is a lot of room for continued innovation.

$200-$250k is no more affordable for the average person than a $500k one is. And if they use lycoming or contintental or rotax the costs are not coming down for repairs. After two weeks of school they will be able to fix an airplane with a CS prop, retracts and O2? Ever price out a set of jacks for a gear swing? How many are going to try and replace a seal in a CS prop to save the $10k overhaul fee?
 
pfarber said:
I won't do the math but a $55k plane with insurance and hangar is still out of reach for an average person.
Click to expand...

So Billy Bob making $60k/year can afford a lifted 2025 Ford F250 Diesel Crew Cab and a new bass boat in addition to his Harley, but we should be worried he can’t afford a used $55k airplane?
 
Folks, any cost benefits, SP privilege improvements, etc., are secondary. The primary driving reason for MOSAIC was to open the US market to small European aircraft. Yes, there are some very nice benefits for us pilots, especially those who wish to fly with a DL medical, but those benefits are a side effect.

Do I think MOSAIC will bring in new people? Maybe a few, but it won't be in amazing numbers. Even though it may lower some barriers, it doesn't do anything to make people want to fly in the first place. GA isn't doing enough to make personal flying look appealing. We're not even selling the steak, let alone selling the sizzle; we're working on improving feed lots and meat packing plants, foolishly thinking that will draw new customers. If we want new flyers, we must work on fostering the dream of flying, and we're not really doing that.
 
Llewtrah381 said:
I may be mistaken but, whether stated in the documentation or not, it seems the impression on forums like this is that it’ll make flying more affordable. I’m not sure I’m seeing that.

I may be misinterpreting the excitement, though.
Click to expand...
EAA:

"For years, high certification costs have been cited as a barrier to affordable ownership of new aircraft."

"You can earn your pilot certificate with fewer hurdles and more choices — taking half the time, at half the cost, while having all the fun."

The real results are that new airplanes are still $200k+ and yes, you will pay half the cost for a SP but you literally get half the privileges and its completely useless for career track pilots. I've never met someone with a SP ticket and I've not read many complaints about not being able to fly a 172 from them.
 
pfarber said:
I've never met someone with a SP ticket and I've not read many complaints about not being able to fly a 172 from them.
Click to expand...
Most of the complaints I’ve seen are lack of availability of airplanes a SP can fly. Being able to fly a 172 would definitely resolve that issue.

But you’re right…being able to fly a 172 is certainly more expensive than not being able to fly.
 
Half Fast said:
You should learn to use Google.

Ranger R7 Pricing | Vashon Aircraft

A variety of configuration options are available for immediate delivery from our fleet of Ranger R7s.
vashonaircraft.com vashonaircraft.com
Glacier model, $159.5k
Click to expand...
LOL 2 place and 400lbs useful? No wonder no one has ever heard of it.

No one bought them so who cares? Show me an LSA with numbers like VANS (aka a plane people actually want, not a goolge search result).
 
pfarber said:
LOL 2 place and 400lbs useful? No wonder no one has ever heard of it.

No one bought them so who cares? Show me an LSA with numbers like VANS (aka a plane people actually want, not a goolge search result).
Click to expand...

You're moving the goal posts. You stated you couldn't find a new LSA for under 200k and I've shown you one. That's now settled. End of that argument.

And regarding "no one bought them," it might be more accurate to say no one you know bought them, and you've already admitted to not knowing any SPs. In point of fact, there's one hangared at my home drome, one row over from me.

You need to get out more and meet a greater variety of people. You're pretty sheltered.
 
MauleSkinner said:
Most of the complaints I’ve seen are lack of availability of airplanes a SP can fly. Being able to fly a 172 would definitely resolve that issue.

But you’re right…being able to fly a 172 is certainly more expensive than not being able to fly.
Click to expand...
You're missing the point. They can fly a 172, and pay the ~$200/hr rental.. but they can't fill the seats or fly at night or go into a D, C or B without spending more money.
 
pfarber said:
You're missing the point. They can fly a 172, and pay the ~$200/hr rental.. but they can't fill the seats or fly at night or go into a D, C or B without spending more money.
Click to expand...

SO WHAT?

If they can do what they want to do, and do it for less money, that's good enough!
 
pfarber said:
You're missing the point. They can fly a 172, and pay the ~$200/hr rental.. but they can't fill the seats or fly at night or go into a D, C or B without spending more money.
Click to expand...
Not everybody wants to fill the seats or fly at night, and D, C, or B airspace is a pretty easy endorsement.

Up until I got my Commercial, 95% of my flying would fall under what MOSAIC now allows. And the other 5% I probably wouldn’t have missed.
 
Half Fast said:
You're moving the goal posts. You stated you couldn't find a new LSA for under 200k and I've shown you one. That's now settled. End of that argument.

And regarding "no one bought them," it might be more accurate to say no one you know bought them, and you've already admitted to not knowing any SPs. In point of fact, there's one hangared at my home drome, one row over from me.

You need to get out more and meet a greater variety of people. You're pretty sheltered.
Click to expand...
We're talking NEW LSAs. You posted one from the original LSA specs.

Let me know anything else needs clarified.
 
pfarber said:
We're talking NEW LSAs. You posted one from the original LSA specs.

Let me know anything else needs clarified.
Click to expand...

There are no LSAs to the new specs yet.

Again, you're trying to move the goal posts to avoid admitting you were wrong about new LSAs not being available for under 200k. You were wrong; give it up.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top