Fixing the COVID-19 Crisis in 30 days

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by Ryanb, Jul 17, 2020.

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  1. Matthew Rogers

    Matthew Rogers Line Up and Wait

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    One person can take precautions and pickup food for a large number of others. Here in NY, I was the only one out of 5 people leaving the house for 3 months to get food and used my full face P100 North respirator that I had in my workshop. P100 plus full sealed face covering with lots of hand sanitizer before and after donning/doffing means a pretty high level of safety. I could have easily picked up and delivered food for 30 other people in my free time if I knew there was the need. One person doing this full time delivering grocery orders could supply an entire neighborhood with just a single high efficiency respirator.
     
  2. steingar

    steingar Taxi to Parking

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    You are exactly correct. The outbreak quickly overwhelmed medical resources in Italy, and the powers that be didn't want to see that here. Looks bad in the news. The idea has been to keep the infection rate low until one or more of the numerous vaccines under development can be brought to bear and end this thing for good. Problem is us pesky Americans really don't like to do what we're told by so-called experts, and the disease is well out of control. I suspect it will stay out of control for the rest of this year and quite possibly a good sized chunk of next year.
     
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  3. weilke

    weilke Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The mindset that wants to 'fix the covid crisis in 30 days' is the same that keeps a giant dieting industry in business. And just like you can't fix BMI 40 obesity with a 30 day diet or a vitamin pill, this is going to take some work. As for how long this is going to take, I am a bit more optimistic. The breathless reporting nonwithstanding, some of the leading indicators in TX and AZ are actually improving. Now if the problem children in California and Florida get on board, maybe the country as a whole can follow the path that so many other countries have shown to work.
     
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  4. NHWannabe

    NHWannabe Line Up and Wait

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    Interesting tweet storm about this and other Covid related items at the link below. Starts by questioning the WHO and their claim we need 70% herd immunity.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1288820368451526656.html
     
  5. Tantalum

    Tantalum Final Approach

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    But, but, I ordered a diet coke with my biggie sized fries and I added a salad to every meal!
     
  6. steingar

    steingar Taxi to Parking

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    I will somewhat tremulously offer that the large(ish) vaccine coverage for things like measles and mumps does not prevent outbreaks. Had an outbreak of mumps in my little one-horse town a few years back.
     
  7. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    I see we’ve now switched to needing face shields today... LOL. Per our “medical experts”, of course.

    Be a good time to have had stock in a plexiglass company since January. Hahaha.

    I miss the simple days when my Governor told me not to go more than 10 miles from home when the grocery store was 15 miles away.

    Oh for the Good Old Days! ;)
     
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  8. simtech

    simtech En-Route

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    In its simplest form yes I agree. However, with things like viruses and disease there isn't a black and white like numbers. I mean take this thread for instance, you have MD's and Phd's all on a different page. Who do you believe? Have you formed your own opinion based on all data from both sides? Both sides aren't right or wrong, totally but somewhere in the middle is a happy median and that can be obscured greatly depending on the agenda.
     
  9. weilke

    weilke Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The R0 for Mumps is believed to be 10-12. The percentage immunized to achieve herd immunity is quite high. Some kids can't get the vaccine for medical reasons and then you have varying percentages of anti-vaxxer parents so the immunization rate is at times below the threshold required to stop the propagation. However, some religious communities exempted, the vaccination rate is usually high enough to slow down the outbreak enough that isolation and contact tracing works to contain them.
     
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  10. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    The true professional who tells the truth...

    “I don’t know. I’m working on it.”
     
  11. jsstevens

    jsstevens Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    I’ve certainly had to say that plenty. But not to TV cameras so far...
     
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  12. Bell206

    Bell206 En-Route

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    Don't worry, the courts will figure it out. Articles starting to pop up on the latest lawsuits filed against employers for failing to provide a safe workplace against COVID. I'm sure all the expert witnesses that will be employed in these cases will have the solution figured out in no time.
     
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  13. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    The lawsuits and legal fun are truly going to be epic entertainment. So much for law students not being able to find jobs! LOL

    Going to be quite a few lawyers who make their nut on this one!
     
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  14. Bob Noel

    Bob Noel Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Will the "expert" witnesses get paid at all to testify?
     
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  15. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    The author seems to be trying to piece together a conclusion based on preexisting belief.
    I do not know enough to determine one way or the other which is correct. However, I will point out a few things:
    1. Flu vaccine coverage is roughly 45% in the USA. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1819estimates.htm
    2. If a vaccine is only 50% effective (the bar set by the FDA for the initial vaccines). So far all vaccines are two doses, that likely means actual adoption will be much lower than the flu vaccine. This does not bode well to hit even the lower number proposed.
    3. The T-Cell immunity reference does not match what I have read; but I do not understand enough to correctly refute it.

    Tim
     
  16. murphey

    murphey Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    Trying to remember which TV doctor (real MD even if on TV) pointed out that a mask substantially reduces outgoing droplets (as pointed out above) and reduces by 10-30% the external droplets that the wearer is receiving thru the mask.
     
  17. murphey

    murphey Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    I bat an eye, in fact I try to avoid anyone handling money and food without changing gloves or washing hands. Even my local Wendy's has started using both windows - first one for the money, second one for the food, just to minimize this issue. Well, at least it looks like it in public. Then there's the staff inside that are wearing the masks below the nose....
     
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  18. murphey

    murphey Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    I resent that. Overall, New York State public K-12 is one of the best school systems in the country. At least when I was in K-12.
     
  19. murphey

    murphey Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    This reminds me - about 20 yrs ago, a close friend who's a rabbi had a heart attack. While in the hospital, many of his friends who are in various religious orders came to visit. One of the nuns told him that the entire convent was praying for him. As he put it - couldn't hurt! Guess it didn't, as he's still alive and well and doing fine.
     
  20. Tantalum

    Tantalum Final Approach

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    It's a little known, and often debated fact, that the nose actually connects to and is part of the respiratory system
     
  21. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Fake News! ;)
     
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  22. Matthew Rogers

    Matthew Rogers Line Up and Wait

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    Or is it a fake NOSE?
     
  23. Morgan3820

    Morgan3820 Pattern Altitude

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    DL.jpg
    This just showed up today. So I am going to probably die soon anyway, Covid or not.
     
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  24. bdtaz

    bdtaz Pre-Flight

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    While a bit emotionally written, the general premise seems reasonable(to me).

    The R0 calculation given is standard, the CDC currently estimates the R0 to be 2.5(https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html) so 60% of the population would need immunity(either gained from being infected, from being vaccinated, or perhaps have immunity innately as inferred here : https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19)

    If the CDC estimate of Infections = 10x identified infections (CDC has some info here (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/seroprevalence-types.html) and apply it to "cases/100K"(https://www.azfamily.com/news/conti...irus_coverage/interactives/state_comparisons/), several states would be in the 20 to 30% range.

    So if even half of the "40 to 60% have innate immunity" is real, many states would be in the 40 to 60% range of the population falling into the immune category.

    In particular, the CDC serology study showed NYC was at 28% at the end of April. If their "Identified vs actual" case ratio has held constant, they should be in the low 40% range of just "immunity via infection". that might also be the telltale for where others could expect a final leveling off.
     
  25. steingar

    steingar Taxi to Parking

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    Showed up? What, did it follow you home?
     
  26. jsstevens

    jsstevens Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    That's why you should never feed one.
     
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  27. kayoh190

    kayoh190 Administrator Management Council Member PoA Supporter

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    Congrats! Good looking bike.
     
  28. wsuffa

    wsuffa Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Taking bets on how long before some jurisdiction makes goggles or face shields mandatory.
     
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  29. weilke

    weilke Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Just to be safe, its for the children.
     
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  30. asicer

    asicer Final Approach

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    ...as in "we will be able to resume the practice of letting someone else raise them for 8+ hours a day." ;)
     
  31. Everskyward

    Everskyward Administrator Management Council Member

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    But goggles and face shields are clearly meant to protect the wearer, not others, unlike masks, so I doubt it, unless they are worried about liability.
     
  32. danhagan

    danhagan Pattern Altitude

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    yeah, but they're mouth breathers:confused::eek:;)

    You DEFINITELY need to stay at least 6 feet away from that thing. PM me your address, and I'll "sanitize" the area so you can live forever (short for, where can I pick up that bike;):)).
     
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  33. cgrab

    cgrab Pattern Altitude

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    My brother the doctor said two things recently:
    This is the most embarrassing thing in the history of the medical profession, and
    The virus will be over in mid-November.

    BTW, he is a big lib and worked for the WHO and for the Obama Admin.
     
  34. Bob Noel

    Bob Noel Touchdown! Greaser!

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    m u s t r e s i s t .... m u s t r e s i s t ....


    [edit: well, that formating is certainly unexpected...]
     
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  35. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    There’s medical professionals who work in the real world, and those who have driven a desk for thirty years who feel compelled to weigh in without any backing evidence of anything.

    We’re just taking to / watching in the media — the wrong ones.

    No offense to the desk drivers who are smart enough to say “no comment” when the media calls.

    The ones that actually work inside the six foot boundary of equally contagious junk and have for decades... they’re probably who one wants to be talking to about how they survived / didn’t even catch a sniffle doing it, all these years.

    Haven’t seen any on TV yet.
     
  36. MauleSkinner

    MauleSkinner Final Approach

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    Yup...nobody appreciates the truth.
     
  37. Morgan3820

    Morgan3820 Pattern Altitude

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    Thank you..at least somebody cares...
     
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  38. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    That is kinda funny, and sad at the same time. Only real way that happens is if the required herd immunity threshold is way off.

    Tim
     
  39. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    Someone in one of the threads asked for evidence of higher suicides...

    CDC guy says yup. Suicides and drug overdoses way up.

    Link is to Townhall and some may not like that. Being discussed on other web sites but not picked up by mainstream yet.

    Decided to use this link since his number source is unknown, but the article links to a ton of other official sources saying their suicide rates, hotlines, ODs, and such... way up.

    Granted, many of those are localized so the national numbers remain at question and the article is careful to point out the official numbers aren’t “approved” by anybody for two years in normal times. And also granted YNAB serious Covid problems leading to possible suicidal issues (if anyone direct correlation) are super highly localized right now anyway. Covid isn’t really a national issue at this point.

    (And what’s up in California? One county surpassing all others by a factor of three? Riverside? Seems... sketchy...)

    Just posting because someone wanted info and I can’t find that post. Also because our own initial hot spot at the ski areas had an article linked (how I found this). Eagle county tied their usual number of six already with quite a bit of the year to go.

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/micae...abovebase-suicides-than-covid-deaths-n2573278

    The various links (since they just happen to be aggregated here) are a more interesting read honestly, than the main article, but it is what it is. Was worth a few clicks.

    I don’t see the Covid linear math not surpassing this number eventually either, FWIW. But depends on any change in slope for these things as people get mo more frustrated with a two year event.

    But for the moment... (shrug...)
     
  40. cgrab

    cgrab Pattern Altitude

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    I would like to speak to my brothers bona fides and to bring in an aviation tie....While working for the WHO in Switzerland, my brother would routinely fly to central Africa where he would hire a plane and instructor for a flight to "the interior." He never got his license but has over 800 hours. He said if he got his license they would have him do a check out and then send him off. By taking a lesson, he could just get on his way and when he arrived, the instructor would always pitch in to help with crowd control. He would inoculate whole villages for MMR and also worked on malaria. He's a real world doctor.
     
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