Will General Aviation Survive

[bnt83]

You may have a point. I am on one or two boating/fishing forums and its been well documented that members are more pessimistic and argumentative in the off season.

I spent a week in Pittsburgh and on my way out the ticket agent asks if I'm going home to Nebraska, I said yep, spent a week in Seattle and a week here, I miss the sun. He replied, "we have fewer sunny days than Seattle". I asked, "oh really? What's the suicide rate here?"

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

Well somewhere along the line James implied that anyone including himself could legally install avionics and then fly the A/C to some other place for a signoff.

This thread https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/a-p-guys-what-avionics-can-you-touch.58431/ seems to support an AP's being legal to make installations. Don't know if an IA also needs to sign it off.

I'm an IA.....I can install "anything" that requires a 337 or logbook entry. I can not return to service a transponder or an altitude reporting device. A certified repair station with the appropriate equipment can do that. Your IA should know this.

 

[Tom-D]

I'm an IA.....I can install "anything" that requires a 337 or logbook entry. I can not return to service a transponder or an altitude reporting device. A certified repair station with the appropriate equipment can do that. Your IA should know this.

you can sign off the log book entry for the installation ,, but you can't return it to service.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

you can sign off the log book entry for the installation ,, but you can't return it to service.

is there an echo in here?....Did you read what I wrote?

 

[Tom-D]

is there an echo in here?....Did you read what I wrote?

who ever does?

 

[FormerHangie]

Why? Because they want to fly, maybe? There are still those out there. I got my PPL and Instrument under 30.

And while I can respect these kinds of comparisons, the exaggerations get me. It does not cost 16k to get a PPL and if it does, find a new school. 10k-11k is the high end and that's if you take 60 hours. If you pay 16k, you are either renting a Cirrus or getting ripped off. Three years ago, in the D.C. area, it cost me $7500 at 44 hours with a part 61 school. And there were several clubs I later found out I could've gotten it done even cheaper at.

And an engine overhaul for a 172 is nowhere hear 30k. My 182P with a 470u doesn't even cost quite that.

Training costs vary widely by area and by individual experience. From what I can find, the average amount of time a new private pilot has when he passes his check ride is closer to 70 hours than 60. I had 39 hours of dual and 21 hours of solo when I got my ticket, and that was as a young man, it wouldn't surprise me if it took me 70 hours if I wanted to start power flying again. If I were going to do that, the only airport I could get to more than once a week would be PDK, and that's not an inexpensive place to train, and if it did take 65 hours, all in I would be looking at close to $14,000.

BTW, the local Cirrus shop estimates it would cost $24,000 to get your private in a Cirrus. http://aeroatlanta.com/services/become-a-pilot

 

[OkieAviator]

Looks like people use the cost argument to justify to themselves on why NOT to fly. If you're into it enough you'll find the money, if you're not then you'll make excuses to self justify your reasons.

 

[mfisher]

Looks like people use the cost argument to justify to themselves on why NOT to fly. If you're into it enough you'll find the money, if you're not then you'll make excuses to self justify your reasons.

The cost argument doesn't work for me either. With the frequency I fly and amount of money I've put into this, I could book first class tickets with limo service and save money over flying myself. However, I don't. I'm not sure why. I consider myself a very rational person until it comes to airplanes and women.

 

[Bonchie]

Training costs vary widely by area and by individual experience. From what I can find, the average amount of time a new private pilot has when he passes his check ride is closer to 70 hours than 60. I had 39 hours of dual and 21 hours of solo when I got my ticket, and that was as a young man, it wouldn't surprise me if it took me 70 hours if I wanted to start power flying again. If I were going to do that, the only airport I could get to more than once a week would be PDK, and that's not an inexpensive place to train, and if it did take 65 hours, all in I would be looking at close to $14,000.

BTW, the local Cirrus shop estimates it would cost $24,000 to get your private in a Cirrus. http://aeroatlanta.com/services/become-a-pilot

At PDK, there's a school that rents a Cherokee 140 for $95 an hour on block (http://skybnd.com/fleet/). Even at 70 hours of rental, that's under 7k. Then add on another 2k for 40 hours of dual at $50 hr (I'm guessing, it's probably cheaper) and you are almost to 9k. Throw in $500 for a ground school (or self-study for way less) and $600 for the checkride and you are right at 10k.

And that again is at the very top echelon of how long it usually takes. While some take 70 hours to get a PPL, if you actually plan properly and fly often, it almost certainly will not take you anywhere near that long. How you spread the training out has more to do with how long it takes than some natural talent you may or may not have. And that's in your hands to affect or not.

There is no doubt that some places you simply can't get a PPL as cheaply as other places, but in most places in the US you can find a decently priced school or club or rental + freelance instructor that will get you done for around or under 10k unless you are a very delayed student that doesn't take it seriously (i.e. fly often).

As for the actual time it takes most people, I've always read 55-60 was the average number of hours (and your Cirrus link actually says their students average 55 hours to get a PPL). You'll also have those who take 100+ hours that skew the averages because of medical issues or huge gaps in training.

BTW, that Cirrus school you link to estimates 55 hours at $340 an hour. That's where the 24k comes from. That's insane and should not be used as any actual comparison to most flight training costs. When I said 16k in a Cirrus, I was using the $230hr SR20 they used to have at VKX as my example.

Anyway, the point is, people can make excuses and give worst case scenarios about the costs at the most expensive schools, but it took me 3 minutes on google to find you a school at your airport that could get your PPL done for 10k if you took 70 hours. Now what if you flew 3 times a week and took 50 hours? It's more than possible.

 

[OkieAviator]

The cost argument doesn't work for me either. With the frequency I fly and amount of money I've put into this, I could book first class tickets with limo service and save money over flying myself. However, I don't. I'm not sure why. I consider myself a very rational person until it comes to airplanes and women.

I was talking more on saying it's too expensive to fly, therefore they don't. As an example someone made mention of selling their plane and not flying because of the cost of ADSB... if someone really quit flying today because of a perceived cost in 2020 then they were just looking for an excuse. There are plenty of posts on this thread alone with bloated financial statistics. Just my observation.

 

[GLMS_NC]

How much for a ppl? These costs quoted seem very high. 40-50 hours at $100/hour plus ground plus check ride is way less than 10-16k. Unless people really are up in the 70 hour range.

What is the average hours flown for those getting a ppl?

 

[James331]

Well somewhere along the line James implied that anyone including himself could legally install avionics and then fly the A/C to some other place for a signoff.

This thread https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/a-p-guys-what-avionics-can-you-touch.58431/ seems to support an AP's being legal to make installations. Don't know if an IA also needs to sign it off.

Just a thought, might want to try it.


I said, NUMEROUS times, I could help my mechanic, just link I would in a annual, quote me where I said I alone could do it..... please......I'll give you time to look... might take a while...BECAUSE I NEVER WROTE THAT.

 

[FormerHangie]

At PDK, there's a school that rents a Cherokee 140 for $95 an hour on block (http://skybnd.com/fleet/). Even at 70 hours of rental, that's under 7k. Then add on another 2k for 40 hours of dual at $50hr and you are almost to 9k. Throw in $500 for a ground school (or self-study for way less) and $600 for the checkride and you are right at 10k.

And that again is at the very top echelon of housesw long it usually takes. While some take 70 hours to get a PPL, if you actually plan properly and fly often, it almost certainly will not take you anywhere near that long. How you spread the training out has more to do with how long it takes then some natural talent you may or may not have. People that get it done over 3-4 months are going to take less time and save money. And that's in your hands to affect.

There is no doubt that some places you simply can't get a PPL as cheaply as other places, but in most places in the US you can find a decently priced school or club or rental+freelance instructor.

I looked at the site you linked to, and on this page they gave the cost estimate for a private as $12,030 for someone taking 60 hours, and $200 per hour for each additional hour of dual, which gets me back to $14,000: http://skybnd.com/course-fees/. Also, that estimate uses $127 per hour for the airplane, they have one 1969 Cherokee at that $95 block rate, their 172s go for $150. Also, they didn't mention the "club" fees you'd have to get that prepaid block rate. There are certainly less expensive options in the area, but not everyone has the schedule flexibility to get to them. I'm using myself as an example because I'm in the demographic someone who could consider flying as a hobby, I have a relatively high paying job, but not a lot of free time. I should add that I'm not intending to get my power license back,I like flying motorless, and if I do go back to flying it will be in a sailplane.

As far as the time estimate goes, it took me 60 hours the first time around, almost 40 years ago,and I'm not thinking it would be any quicker next time around. Just for fun, I pulled out my father's logbook, it took him just under 70 hours to get his private back in 1970, when he was 43. I'm almost 60.

 

[paflyer]

We just upgraded our '66 Cherokee 180C to ADS-B in/out along with a bunch of other avionics upgrades. Brand new Garmin GTX 345 transponder, refurbished Garmin 530W GPS/radio/display. $22K installed. If anyone is interested, I can get pricing details.

Hmm. That seems to be a tad more than $6K. Maybe James could have done it for you, cheap.

 

[FormerHangie]

How much for a ppl? These costs quoted seem very high. 40-50 hours at $100/hour plus ground plus check ride is way less than 10-16k. Unless people really are up in the 70 hour range.

What is the average hours flown for those getting a ppl?

Most places I've seen suggest you allow for 60 hours, 40 dual and 20 solo. Lots of things influence the actual amount, interruptions will slow your learning down, and you don't always control that, the weather and your instructor's and the aircraft's availability are outside your control.

 

[Bonchie]

I looked at the site you linked to, and on this page they gave the cost estimate for a private as $12,030 for someone taking 60 hours, and $200 per hour for each additional hour of dual, which gets me back to $14,000: http://skybnd.com/course-fees/. Also, that estimate uses $127 per hour for the airplane, they have one 1969 Cherokee at that $95 block rate, their 172s go for $150. Also, they didn't mention the "club" fees you'd have to get that prepaid block rate. There are certainly less expensive options in the area, but not everyone has the schedule flexibility to get to them. I'm using myself as an example because I'm in the demographic someone who could consider flying as a hobby, I have a relatively high paying job, but not a lot of free time. I should add that I'm not intending to get my power license back,I like flying motorless, and if I do go back to flying it will be in a sailplane.

As far as the time estimate goes, it took me 60 hours the first time around, almost 40 years ago,and I'm not thinking it would be any quicker next time around. Just for fun, I pulled out my father's logbook, it took him just under 70 hours to get his private back in 1970, when he was 43. I'm almost 60.

The club fee is $50 initial + just $25 a month for a year to get the $95 an hour block rate. It's right on the website. It's basically a rounding error in the total cost. Like I said, if some want to not actually take the time to shop around and just go by worst case cost estimates, then they can. But there are plenty of opportunities to get a PPL under 10k in this country and it's not that difficult to do.

Things like time management are ultimately in the student's hands. If you work 12 hour days and simply don't have the time, I understand, but most can make the time if they really want to. Same for things like driving a little further for a much cheaper rental or finding an instructor who charges $30 an hour vs. $50. A lot of variables exist and most are able to be influenced.

 

[paflyer]

Just a thought, might want to try it.


I said, NUMEROUS times, I could help my mechanic, just link I would in a annual, quote me where I said I alone could do it..... please......I'll give you time to look... might take a while...BECAUSE I NEVER WROTE THAT.

Show me the reg

For testing yeah, but for a remove and replace???

What stops me from say installing the next version of a nav worx, flying with it off to a avionic$ shop, having them test it, and calling it a day.

 

[Sinistar]

So lets say hypothetically the cost of a PPL was fixed at $8K - for everything. I still believe the younger generation's interest in GA will decline. That $8K is a lot of money for someone who just comes out of school at 25yrs old. They want a fancy car, a wedding ring costs twice that, they want a big house, they want to travel. And most importantly, they will have been on a plane - many, many times and the fascination just isn't there in the same numbers. Sure, the ones who want to learn will find the means. But not nearly as many. Maybe the factor that will offset the decline is if there is more demand for commercial aviation and pay is decent, more of those pilots will purchase/fly private aircraft too.

This topic is interesting to me right now. I wanted to fly since I was 40. Family and career bumped that out to now - when I am 50. I am just as fascinated now as I was then. Now, we own our own plane and I will learn in it. It is awesome to be up there.

And I have a daughter who is 8yrs old right now. She's flown about 60hrs with mom in the old Aeronca and now 20hrs as family in the 182. Even being around aviation that early I can easily see why she would not get her PPL. Just so many things going on in school and life. We are hoping she will want to learn. We will keep the plane until we can't fly anymore and it will be her's if she commits to flying.

 

[Bonchie]

If you don't have an interest, it doesn't matter how cheap it is.

You either want to fly or you don't.

I'm not really worried about GA "dying." There's enough corporate, cargo, and other types of flying aside from 4 seat piston drivers going on to keep a lot of airports open in all manner of places across the country.

Heck, KTVR across the river from me was initially built because the government wanted a suitable place to base an Army G6. They just put in an ILS specifically for it as well after like 20 years. Plenty of airports don't depend on just your little Cessna to exist.

So yeah, some smaller, more quaint airports will fade away. But the system isn't going anywhere and most airports near populous places aren't either.

All I know is that even in freaking MS where I'm at now, all the flying clubs are full and all the flight schools stay booked. So how dire things are is also up for interpretation. The more rural areas will probably suffer more in the future, but GA is booming in many urban areas. You'll continue to see the numbers of pilots decrease, but how many of those people were actually flying in the last 20 years anyway?

 

[James331]

Guess you missed the million times I clearly said with my AP.

Here's the very first post which you didn't comprehend, it sadly appeared to cause some type of cognitive stall, with secondary stalls to follow.

.... for a owner assist install or ....

many people say I'm putting a deck in, yet they aren't actually the ones putting the deck on their house.


Again, it's like $14.95, you really should give them a call, I think they could help you.


Heck maybe I'll try to set up a gofundme for your hooked on phonics

 

[paflyer]

Guess you missed the million times I clearly said with my AP.

Here's the very first post which you didn't comprehend, it sadly appeared to cause so type of cognitive stall, with secondary stalls to follow.



many people say I'm putting a deck in, yet they aren't actually the ones putting the deck on their house.


Again, it's like $14.95, you really should give them a call, I think they could help you.


Heck maybe I'll try to set up a gofundme for your hooked on phonics

Say goodnight, Jimmy.

 

[mfisher]

An AMU here. A couple AMU's there. Eventually we're talking about real money.

 

[James331]

Say goodnight, Jimmy.

 

[FloridaPilot]

I've noticed that too. I think it could be related to his location and lack of seeing the sun.

I lived in Seattle for 6 years and I can say that it is more sunny on the Washington islands than it is around the outlying areas of Puget sound, (Orcas, Whidbey...etc)

Training costs vary widely by area and by individual experience. From what I can find, the average amount of time a new private pilot has when he passes his check ride is closer to 70 hours than 60. I had 39 hours of dual and 21 hours of solo when I got my ticket, and that was as a young man, it wouldn't surprise me if it took me 70 hours if I wanted to start power flying again. If I were going to do that, the only airport I could get to more than once a week would be PDK, and that's not an inexpensive place to train, and if it did take 65 hours, all in I would be looking at close to $14,000.

BTW, the local Cirrus shop estimates it would cost $24,000 to get your private in a Cirrus. http://aeroatlanta.com/services/become-a-pilot

Here in my area it costs $17,000 for just the flight time in the Cirrus. I learned in an Archer/Cessna for around $12,000 for everything.


I would also like to "throw out there" suicide rates are pretty high here in Florida as well. I go over the Skyway bridge everyday and at least about 3 times a week someone has jumped off. That is the time that I'm driving through. Traffic backs up and when driving by I ask the cops who are looking over the bridge: "Another jumper" And they say "Yep".

People who want to end their life is more of an individual thing, not a location thing.

 

[FormerHangie]

So lets say hypothetically the cost of a PPL was fixed at $8K - for everything. I still believe the younger generation's interest in GA will decline. That $8K is a lot of money for someone who just comes out of school at 25yrs old. They want a fancy car, a wedding ring costs twice that, they want a big house, they want to travel. And most importantly, they will have been on a plane - many, many times and the fascination just isn't there in the same numbers. Sure, the ones who want to learn will find the means. But not nearly as many. Maybe the factor that will offset the decline is if there is more demand for commercial aviation and pay is decent, more of those pilots will purchase/fly private aircraft too.

This topic is interesting to me right now. I wanted to fly since I was 40. Family and career bumped that out to now - when I am 50. I am just as fascinated now as I was then. Now, we own our own plane and I will learn in it. It is awesome to be up there.

And I have a daughter who is 8yrs old right now. She's flown about 60hrs with mom in the old Aeronca and now 20hrs as family in the 182. Even being around aviation that early I can easily see why she would not get her PPL. Just so many things going on in school and life. We are hoping she will want to learn. We will keep the plane until we can't fly anymore and it will be her's if she commits to flying.

Another thing that will keep many of today's kids out of the cockpit is that so many of them have been diagnosed with ADD, which will make it hard to get a medical. The CDC has found that 14% of all boys have been diagnosed with ADD: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/adhd.htm. My younger daughter has ADD, and I don't think she's pilot material. While she's very bright, she's also forgetful and has a tendency to jump from task to task without completing them. I could easily see her forgetting something important in the cockpit. My eldest is very calm and methodical, I think she'd make a great pilot, but she's not interested.

 

[Matt Brasher]

When it comes to cost, there are also two trains of thought:

1) Do I want to meet the bare butts minimum to get into the air with your family?
or
2) Do I want to do a little more?

Sure you can do it in bare minimum 40-45 hours, but I doubt that includes multiple cross countries, instrument approaches, several days of high cross wind training, trips to soft field airports, Class B flight, Class C/B landings, mountain flight, etc. If you include all that you are looking at 50- 60 hours.

 

[brien23]

Dont you post one of these threads every 8-10 months?

Yes, things change in a year and I like to get a little insight into the the health of GA. This post has brought out many view points and some that I never would have thought of. I believe that one can get a better viewpoint from this board on the condition of GA than any magazine story of GA. Is it in a decline, yes will it improve over the next year? When I post it next year as to the condition of GA time will tell.

 

[FloridaPilot]

Another thing that will keep many of today's kids out of the cockpit is that so many of them have been diagnosed with ADD, which will make it hard to get a medical. The CDC has found that 14% of all boys have been diagnosed with ADD: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/adhd.htm. My younger daughter has ADD, and I don't think she's pilot material. While she's very bright, she's also forgetful and has a tendency to jump from task to task without completing them. I could easily see her forgetting something important in the cockpit. My eldest is very calm and methodical, I think she'd make a great pilot, but she's not interested.

I would go the sport pilot route, not only should it be half of what a PPL costs they can actually get it faster. Just don't apply for an FAA medical. Don't take my word for it make sure you research it on your own.

@James331 Told me a little while back and I didn't listen, (I should've) Find a CFI with an airplane and hire him/her. One of the CFI's at my home field has 40 years experience and charges $3,000 for a sport license. Can't beat that!

 

[FormerHangie]

I would go the sport pilot route, not only should it be half of what a PPL costs they can actually get it faster. Just don't apply for an FAA medical. Don't take my word for it make sure you research it on your own.

@James331 Told me a little while back and I didn't listen, (I should've) Find a CFI with an airplane and hire him/her. One of the CFI's at my home field has 40 years experience and charges $3,000 for a sport license. Can't beat that!

I've never brought the idea of flying up with her, and I don't intend to. I don't think she should fly, she's too likely to forget something important. If my eldest were interested, I'd set up a discovery flight tomorrow, but the younger one's thought patterns aren't disciplined enough to make a good pilot.

 

[FloridaPilot]

I've never brought the idea of flying up with her, and I don't intend to. I don't think she should fly, she's too likely to forget something important. If my eldest were interested, I'd set up a discovery flight tomorrow, but the younger one's thought patterns aren't disciplined enough to make a good pilot.

Maybe one day she will have the desire to prove you wrong. I would love to see it! Things have a weird way of working itself out.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

 

[Jimmy cooper]

Dont you post one of these threads every 8-10 months?

brine is correct. If you look up the number of light aircraft built in the U.S. Last year, easy to see why they are so expensive. Very few! Then look up jobs sent overseas in the past thirty years. Then look up wage stagnation in the past thirty years. Light plane aviation is no where near what it was thirty years ago. In fact most pilots are flying thirty- fourty, fifty year old aircraft, high time engines, old avionics, etc. no hangars as the cost is prohibative and the return on investment numbers don't work. Easy to look up if you want to.

 

[coloradobluesky]

How long it takes to get a pilots license is not always in the pilot's control. But really, what difference does it make? Once you have your license you are going to continue flying right? It will be less expensive (no more instructor) so there is that. Dont get hung up on how many hours it takes to get a license. Just get in there and get it done.

 

[Bonchie]

Yes, things change in a year and I like to get a little insight into the the health of GA. This post has brought out many view points and some that I never would have thought of. I believe that one can get a better viewpoint from this board on the condition of GA than any magazine story of GA. Is it in a decline, yes will it improve over the next year? When I post it next year as to the condition of GA time will tell.

What exactly are you looking for to signal "improvement?" If you are waiting for more pilots to be added then lost, that's not going to happen. Those rolls are full of "pilots" who haven't flown in 30-40 years giving the impression there's some massive decline going on right now. In reality, they were lost long ago.

My experience being in the NE in an urban area (D.C.) and now down south in MS is that GA has largely plateaued. Flight training is fairly steady in both areas, despite their stark differences, with D.C. especially busy at the many surrounding airports. When I got to MS, I joined a club with a 140 to build time. It had 9 primary students and me building time and it filled up quickly. The plane I'm in now is an equity ownership set up like a club. It's full. The other club up at MBO is also full and they have three airplanes. And this is in the poorest state in the union.

Cheaper fuel prices have probably actually helped matters. But it all mostly feels flat in my observation over the past 5 years. Old airports that haven't been really used in decades are going to continue to close but in many cases, it's a long overdue effect to a decline that actually happened two decades ago.

 

[FloridaPilot]

Yes, things change in a year and I like to get a little insight into the the health of GA. This post has brought out many view points and some that I never would have thought of. I believe that one can get a better viewpoint from this board on the condition of GA than any magazine story of GA. Is it in a decline, yes will it improve over the next year? When I post it next year as to the condition of GA time will tell.

Another way to check the health of GA is to look at Sun and Fun and EAA attendance numbers. GA is going to be around for a long time, why worry about it? What does it accomplish?

 

[cweinacker]

...not new news...GA is not dying...it's dead...FAA/US Govt the cause...like other freedoms...like ultra lights becoming LSA...all ********!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jim Case]

You are not incorrect but also, a little exaggerated. Clubs still exist, but the cost has skyrocket for flying in general, not great for a kid like me who's trying to log hours for career level certifications. I'm not going to give in, and neither will general aviators who just wanna fly for fun, but it will be less and less as the years go by. The FAA means well but they are a huge factor as well.

 

[iflyifr]

One would think that of all the posts on this, someone would have installed ADS-B out and be able to tell us how much it cost.

Today I completed the ADS-B validation flight. Passed. Installed Appareo Stratus ESG 1090ES. (This was ADS-B Out only). Total $3665.00 installed. Of that Labor was 12 hrs @$90. per hour/Total $1080. Cost of Avionics & parts (cables/shop stuff) $2585.00. Deduct $500 for rebate, total cost $3165.00.

 

[bnt83]

Today I completed the ADS-B validation flight. Passed. Installed Appareo Stratus ESG 1090ES. (This was ADS-B Out only). Total $3665.00 installed. Of that Labor was 12 hrs @$90. per hour/Total $1080. Cost of Avionics & parts (cables/shop stuff) $2585.00. Deduct $500 for rebate, total cost $3165.00.

I think the comparable Garmin version would have been another $1300 or so. Their install kits don't include a GPS antenna so there's another $300 if a guy needs one.

The GTX-345 is quite a bit more money, pricey for sure.

 

[iflyifr]

I think the compatible Garmin version would have been another $800 or so. Their install kits don't include a GPS antenna so there's another $300 if a guy needs one.

The comparable Garmin and Lynx unit estimates were $7700 & $7500 (installed) respectively. However these units are both In and Out. I already had the In, so the Stratus better fit my needs.

 

[bnt83]

The comparable Garmin and Lynx unit estimates were $7700 & $7500 (installed) respectively. However these units are both In and Out. I already had the In, so the Stratus better fit my needs.

They sell an out version only too, the GTX-335w/GPS. The kit minus antenna is $3629.

Garmin doesn't really have anything like the lynx.

The 345 kit alone cost more than what you spent total.