When will we start seeing MOSAIC (Sport Aircraft 2.0) planes?

They are declaring that their design conforms. I assume there has to be some objective quality evidence that they must provide to show that the design conforms. There IS a certification process, it just does not involve the FAA.
who do they have to show it to?
 
Except the 172 still requires an A&P/IA to be worked on. MOSAIC didn't expand any TC'd aircraft to fall under a LSRM certificate.
I was talking about a new 172 reclassified/sold as a Sport Aircraft 2.0 post July 2026.
 
Airplanes with a standard airworthiness certificate can't be "reclassified". But if Cessna wanted to build the next version of the 172 to Industry Standards they certainly could.
 
“reclassified?”
What I mean is: there is nothing stopping Cessna from from killing the old part 23 172 and releasing a "172.5" that conforms to ASTM and MOSAIC post July 2026. I think you'll see Cessna, Cirrus, Van's, and other "legacy" manufacturers do this. It just makes sense for the deregulatory reasons when it comes to the airframe and maintenance alone.
 
What I mean is: there is nothing stopping Cessna from from killing the old part 23 172 and releasing a "172.5" that conforms to ASTM and MOSAIC post July 2026. I think you'll see Cessna, Cirrus, Van's, and other "legacy" manufacturers do this. It just makes sense for the deregulatory reasons when it comes to the airframe and maintenance alone.
Assuming it actually meets the ASTM requirements, there are plenty of things that would stop them. Expense, liability,…
 
Makes sense. But, would a Skyhawk 172.1 require a company like Garmin to recertify all of their products that are currently approved for today’s 172? As well as hundreds of smaller companies making thousands of different parts? Would salvage parts still be acceptable?
 
Maybe we'll see some foreign designs such as the JMB VL-3. Or maybe some EAB will get converted over
 
What I mean is: there is nothing stopping Cessna from from killing the old part 23 172 and releasing a "172.5" that conforms to ASTM and MOSAIC post July 2026.
The 172 is a CAR3 aircraft.
I think you'll see Cessna, Cirrus, Van's, and other "legacy" manufacturers do this. It just makes sense for the deregulatory reasons when it comes to the airframe and maintenance alone.

That statement doesn't make sense.
 
Assuming it actually meets the ASTM requirements, there are plenty of things that would stop them. Expense, liability,…
Of course it would, and you could add bureaucratic inertia to your list.

The Tecnam 2010 looks a lot like what a 172 could look like. tbh I don't expect brand C or P to try very hard.
 
What I mean is: there is nothing stopping Cessna from from killing the old part 23 172 and releasing a "172.5" that conforms to ASTM and MOSAIC post July 2026.
No, but the 172 would not meet all ASTM standards so it would require a lot of changes outside the normal process at Cessna. I doubt any of the legacy OEMs would convert to LSA 2.0. Now Tecnam, Pipistrel, Flight Concepts, etc sure. No legacy monocoque structured aircraft could ever compete with a composite aircraft on the production side from a cost standpoint.

Curious how many aircraft do you think make up the Part 91 private, recreational fleet, and how many of those current owners will buy new 2.0 LSA aircraft?
 
Of course it would, and you could add bureaucratic inertia to your list.
Bottom line is there are way more reasons not to recertify an existing design than there are to do it.
The Tecnam 2010 looks a lot like what a 172 could look like. tbh I don't expect brand C or P to try very hard.
Given that they currently produce airplanes that can be flown under the new rules, why would they? The only reason anyone has given is that it lowers the bar for maintenance technician training. Yet another reason one could add to the list of “why nots.”
 
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Makes sense. But, would a Skyhawk 172.1 require a company like Garmin to recertify all of their products that are currently approved for today’s 172? As well as hundreds of smaller companies making thousands of different parts?
Many (Most?) current LSA use Garmin stuff. Not sure how it would be different.
Would salvage parts still be acceptable?
For SLSA, Maybe. For ELSA and EAB, of course.
 
I doubt any of the legacy OEMs would convert to LSA 2.0.
Agree to disagree. Time will tell of course.

Curious how many aircraft do you think make up the Part 91 private, recreational fleet, and how many of those current owners will buy new 2.0 LSA aircraft?
GAMA reported ~1800 SEP/MEP new aircraft sales in 2024. I would venture a guess that 50-80% of those could be SLSA 2.0 aircraft instead eventually. That's a pretty big market.

I guess I should have asked my original question in this way, "of those that believe there is a market for SLSA 2.0 aircraft, when do you think we'll start seeing the new ones?". I didn't expect a debate on whether there would be a market, which I believe is self-evident.
 
FWIW, The SP rules go into effect after 90 days, But the LSA rules not until after a year.

So next summer?
 
The only way would ever see a major influx of new aircraft would be if buyers buying new were give a 3-5 year window or so where they could purchase new and be able to deduct a large portion on personal income taxes. Although this wouldn't do near as well in states with a high tax rate on purchases. It will take some sort of financial incentive for buyers to drop the status quo and manufactures to produce a decent amount of new planes.
 
GAMA reported ~1800 SEP/MEP new aircraft sales in 2024.
True. But when adjusted for sales of SEL aircraft to the US it comes to 1258. MEL aircraft are not applicable to 2.0. Then if you want to further adjust for US produced only that number goes to 924.

I would venture a guess that 50-80% of those could be SLSA 2.0 aircraft instead eventually. That's a pretty big market.
A big market compared to what? Nothing wrong to venture guesses, but without context its hard compare things.

For example, I put the Part 91 private, recreational market at about 57,000 aircraft. So using the new aircraft numbers above that puts the new aircraft market at 1.6% to 2.1% of the total Part 91 private fleet. And in my experience, a large or strong market would be closer to 20% or about 11,400 new aircraft. Which ironically is pretty close to the best market years of the private Part 91 fleet during the 1970s.

But the key to any of this is at what price point do you see these new 2.0 LSAs being sold at as that alone will take all the potential market numbers above off the board completely.
 

When will we start seeing MOSAIC (Sport Aircraft 2.0) planes?​

There will be some crazy investors who think they can make money and you will see about all of them loss money.
 
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MEL aircraft are not applicable to 2.0.
Wrong. Light Sport 2.0 aircraft can be multi engine. And turbine. And electric. And whatever else we haven't thought of next.

Look, I'm not here to argue the merits of Sport Aircraft 2.0. I and others think it will change light GA for the better. You and others don't seem to think that it will. Reasonable people can disagree. Time will tell of course.

I'm just asking when people think we'll see new aircraft delivered under the new rule. Next summer? 5 summers from now? Just curious on opinions on that here and if people have heard anything. I'm hoping by next summer.
 
Do you think we can get any indication on LSA 2.0 aircraft by looking at what happened when LSA 1.0 was rolled out?
 
Wrong. Light Sport 2.0 aircraft can be multi engine. And turbine. And electric. And whatever else we haven't thought of next.

Look, I'm not here to argue the merits of Sport Aircraft 2.0. I and others think it will change light GA for the better. You and others don't seem to think that it will. Reasonable people can disagree. Time will tell of course.

I'm just asking when people think we'll see new aircraft delivered under the new rule. Next summer? 5 summers from now? Just curious on opinions on that here and if people have heard anything. I'm hoping by next summer.

I would think before aircraft deliveries began there would be marketing. The response to the marketing would dictate whether to proceed, scale back or abandon the idea.

Manufacturers have known this was coming, so I would suspect (if the demand was there) they would have a product ready to go.
 
I would think before aircraft deliveries began there would be marketing. The response to the marketing would dictate whether to proceed, scale back or abandon the idea.

Manufacturers have known this was coming, so I would suspect (if the demand was there) they would have a product ready to go.
On the other hand, I certainly wouldn't expect marketing 11 months before you can deliver a product.
 
Wrong. Light Sport 2.0 aircraft can be multi engine. And turbine. And electric. And whatever else we haven't thought of next.
Interesting. I knew of the turbine and electric, but must have intermixed the limitations for a sport pilot. Thought all was single engine. But still doesn't change the numbers above given MEL is a small sample base.

I'm just asking when people think we'll see new aircraft delivered under the new rule. Next summer? 5 summers from now? Just curious on opinions on that here and if people have heard anything. I'm hoping by next summer.
Given the requirements of the LSA ASTM standards and Part 22 doesn't become fully effective until next year, I think you're looking to at least 3 years before any movement. And the fact MOSAIC has been in discussion since 2013 and there has been no media about any new designs with its final issuance, I think shows where the potential market is. The only info you hear about are the listing of existing aircraft you can now fly as a sport pilot vs any new LSA aircraft certifications. So perhaps it will longer than 3 years. I think a more hopeful route will be if current EASA LSA OEMs want to sent their aircraft over to cover that gap.
 
Given the requirements of the LSA ASTM standards and Part 22 doesn't become fully effective until next year, I think you're looking to at least 3 years before any movement. And the fact MOSAIC has been in discussion since 2013 and there has been no media about any new designs with its final issuance, I think shows where the potential market is. The only info you hear about are the listing of existing aircraft you can now fly as a sport pilot vs any new LSA aircraft certifications. So perhaps it will longer than 3 years. I think a more hopeful route will be if current EASA LSA OEMs want to sent their aircraft over to cover that gap.
Mosaic wasn't really a serious thing until a couple years ago and even then people were pretty skeptical - then it went and exceeded expectations as far as stall speed and other factors.

I think we'll probably see announcements from some major players by early next year and Oshkosh '26 at max, with deliveries by some soon after the rules take effect. Big guys like Cirrus and Cessna will take longer but I fully expect them to sell 2.0 planes eventually. But again, we'll see...
 
So at what price range do you think these new aircraft will be offered at?
Assuming something comparable to a 172, as that largely meets the requirements, I would expect them to cost slightly more than a new 172, as the design and tooling for a 172 is probably paid for already.
 
Assuming something comparable to a 172, as that largely meets the requirements, I would expect them to cost slightly more than a new 172, as the design and tooling for a 172 is probably paid for already.
Given the current 1.0 LSA upper shelf basic models start at $150K, my guess the development costs to increase/conform the performance abilities to the 2.0 levels would start the asking at least at $250k or better in the big picture. Be interesting to see what type of insurance structure will be developed for the 2.0 version as well.
 
I declare that am the best pilot in the whole wide world.

Wow! Works great!
You would get less of an argument (or enforcement action) if you declared you were the most Hansome person in the World. You know how pilots are.
 
I would think a Sling TSI, that I don't have to build, might fall into this sweet spot. I suspect that might be in the $400 to $500k range though.
 
I think it is a mistake to take a short term perspective. The big picture will take a decade or two to develop.

The FAR had become an obstacle to innovation, in an era when new technologies are sweeping through the rest of the economy. MOSAIC is an attempt to fix that.

It is economically unviable to bring useful new personal aircraft to market. LSA aircraft are too small, too slow, and too squirrely. Part 23 certification requirements are cost prohibitive.

MOSAIC addresses that in two ways. First, it opens up LSA to the most popular and useful configuration: 4 seat 180hp aircraft. Second, allowing certification by industry standards reduces the business risk of new designs.

A few manufacturers might see some advantage that can be applied to existing designs. But I think the big impact will come over 10-20 years with new designs and the incorporation of new technologies such as electric propulsion and AI.

Right now GA is the equivalent of the Cuban car industry. We are nursing along 40 to 70 year old machines long past their expected lifespan.
 
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