Tesla Model 3 - Now I get the hype.

You can’t feel 13HP in the “seat of the pants” in a 5K lbs car anyway
I beg to differ. Anybody that’s in tune with their vehicle, airplane, motorcycle, or even a piece of heavy equipment can easily tell any subtle changes in performance. Those of you that have the “feel” know exactly what I’m talking about. ;)
 
I beg to differ. Anybody that’s in tune with their vehicle, airplane, motorcycle, or even a piece of heavy equipment can easily tell any subtle changes in performance. Those of you that have the “feel” know exactly what I’m talking about. ;)
Lol. Kinda like "I just installed this K&N air filter and could immediately feel the unleashed power!"
 
The sort of person that talks about being ‘in tune’ with their vehicle isn’t driving a Tesla anyway. :)
True dat! Most people can't even tell they have a flat tire until they hear the grinding of their rim on the asphalt and wonder why their car is driving funny. I would imagine most Tesla drivers (as are most ICE drivers) are nothing but monkeys behind a wheel.:smilewinkgrin:
 
The quick thirty minute recharge on road trips has occasional complications.

Black Friday shopping lines weren’t the only queues frustrating people this past weekend. A number of Tesla drivers took to social media to vent about extremely crowded Supercharger stations that turned a promised fast stop into an hours-long slog to recharge during one of the year's busiest travel times.

With Model 3 mass production in full swing, there are now well over 400,000 Teslas on American roads, and it appears that growth is exposing the Supercharger network's pain points in high-traffic times like this past weekend.


https://www.thedrive.com/news/31274...urs-long-supercharger-lines-over-thanksgiving
 
The quick thirty minute recharge on road trips has occasional complications.

Black Friday shopping lines weren’t the only queues frustrating people this past weekend. A number of Tesla drivers took to social media to vent about extremely crowded Supercharger stations that turned a promised fast stop into an hours-long slog to recharge during one of the year's busiest travel times.

With Model 3 mass production in full swing, there are now well over 400,000 Teslas on American roads, and it appears that growth is exposing the Supercharger network's pain points in high-traffic times like this past weekend.


https://www.thedrive.com/news/31274...urs-long-supercharger-lines-over-thanksgiving
That's a good thing. It shows the growth of EVs and demonstrates the need to get serious about bulking up the charging network.

When I get my Tesla Truck, I will be able to make almost all of my driving trips, there and back, without recharging. Five hundred mile round trips will cover just about anything that I don't do in an airplane.
 
The quick thirty minute recharge on road trips has occasional complications.
I think that's mostly limited to San Francisco, great Los Angeles, and the highways in between. Sales of Tesla's in those areas have outstripped the build-out of the Supercharger network. Also, probably more Tesla owners in those urban areas who don't have charging at home, due to living in apartments/condos, who routinely rely on public charging.

If you look at the Supercharger map, for LA and SF, it looks like each city has roughly three times as many Superchargers under construction as they currently have in service.

https://www.tesla.com/findus?bounds...tore,service,supercharger,destination charger
 
The quick thirty minute recharge on road trips has occasional complications.

Black Friday shopping lines weren’t the only queues frustrating people this past weekend. A number of Tesla drivers took to social media to vent about extremely crowded Supercharger stations

I saw a movie of the wait at the San Luis Obispo Supercharger. There were about as many people waiting as there were stalls, so probably an extra 20-30 minute wait, but the video went viral among Tesla detractors...

... And then a semi trailer was backed in, on which were a Tesla Megapack (3MW battery storage) with 8 additional Superchargers on it, and the line cleared much faster. Pretty smart idea for holiday travel and also for localized events - For example, it'd probably be smart to park one of those at Oshkosh during the show. When it's depleted, they can take it and recharge it somewhere, though that's clearly not at simple as plugging it into a 120V outlet. ;)

TEsla-Mobile-Supercharger-e1575024891429.jpg


https://electrek.co/2019/11/29/tesla-mobile-supercharger-megapack/

I think that's mostly limited to San Francisco, great Los Angeles, and the highways in between. Sales of Tesla's in those areas have outstripped the build-out of the Supercharger network. Also, probably more Tesla owners in those urban areas who don't have charging at home, due to living in apartments/condos, who routinely rely on public charging.

Yep. I didn't hear of any problems with lines at Superchargers for the busy travel weekend outside of California.
 
Something occurred to me last night.
There is all this concern about all the EVs bringing down the grid. The general comments go like this. Each EV will pull 40amps at 220v all night long. And this will overwhelm the whole grid.
However, this analysis misses the fundamental point that the average driver does less than 40 miles a day. With a 40amp 220v circuit; that will charge most cars in roughly an hour.
How will this take down the grid? Especially when you consider the difference from base load to peak. There is a lot of capacity in the system at night.

Now to leverage this; it will take some pricing changes in power, and some demand management systems. Most of which have previously been built for water heaters and a/c units. The ones I have dealt with would not be hard to modify to support car chargers.

What am I missing?

Tim
 
They are cool cars but you are just trading one evil for another. Battery production, power production, battery disposal. Until there are swappable battery packs you can just pull into a station and get, or a battery that can recharge in 5 minutes, they will always be a niche market or at best a second car. I really think Hydrogen would be a better solution but it too has drawbacks and risk.
 
They are cool cars but you are just trading one evil for another. Battery production, power production, battery disposal. Until there are swappable battery packs you can just pull into a station and get, or a battery that can recharge in 5 minutes, they will always be a niche market or at best a second car. I really think Hydrogen would be a better solution but it too has drawbacks and risk.

You obviously have not been reading the thread :) (could not resist).
Five minute recharge goes away with an EV. You start everyday with a full "tank" by charging at home. So unless you drive farther on a daily basis than the range of the car; or occasional road trip; you never need to worry about a "5 minute recharge".


Tim
 
You obviously have not been reading the thread :) (could not resist).
Five minute recharge goes away with an EV. You start everyday with a full "tank" by charging at home. So unless you drive farther on a daily basis than the range of the car; or occasional road trip; you never need to worry about a "5 minute recharge".


Tim

No I don't drive more than say... 300 miles on a normal day, but it wouldn't be uncommon for me to drive more than that on a weekend. For this reason I would always want a normal car where as if I could just swap battery packs I would only need one car.
 
No I don't drive more than say... 300 miles on a normal day, but it wouldn't be uncommon for me to drive more than that on a weekend. For this reason I would always want a normal car where as if I could just swap battery packs I would only need one car.

If driving that much; you will find justification to delay getting an EV for a few years; and will likely be one of the last converts.
However; if you crunch the numbers; you will find spending the money on a high end EV which has the range; likely will save you money over whatever ICE vehicle you compare it too. The EV, might on the weekend require you to hit a charger for ten minutes if going over 300 miles; and twenty minutes if pushing 500. Otherwise, you never hit the charging station during the week.

Tim
 
Something occurred to me last night.
There is all this concern about all the EVs bringing down the grid. The general comments go like this. Each EV will pull 40amps at 220v all night long. And this will overwhelm the whole grid.
However, this analysis misses the fundamental point that the average driver does less than 40 miles a day. With a 40amp 220v circuit; that will charge most cars in roughly an hour.
How will this take down the grid? Especially when you consider the difference from base load to peak. There is a lot of capacity in the system at night.

Now to leverage this; it will take some pricing changes in power, and some demand management systems. Most of which have previously been built for water heaters and a/c units. The ones I have dealt with would not be hard to modify to support car chargers.

What am I missing?

Nothing. There are already home EV charging stations that can support demand management - My JuiceBox Pro 40 can do it.

I also found this analysis of the "bringing down the grid" myth very informative:

If every car in the U.S. were a Tesla Model S, how much extra electricity would we need to generate to meet the added demand due to battery charging?

TL;DR: Total consumption would go up 15-20%, but since EVs mostly charge at night when there is excess capacity anyway, we only need to increase total grid capacity by about 10% over the next 20 years.
 
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People seem to get all religious about Teslas(and EVs in general). Either for or against. On one side people try to convince others that EV is near perfect and will fit their life just fine regardless how they use their vehicles. One just have to adopt. Many really cannot use EV and/or do not want to adopt to it. Let it go. On the other side I see statements like "I cannot use an EV because of [whatever reason] therefore it's just a niche product." That's just as silly There are a lot of people that use cars differently and will have no problem with having a Tesla as their only vehicle. These people may want to use EVs for all kinds of reasons that ICE drivers may not care about or not understand.
I guess this is the Internet :)

Personally, I like the idea of EV. I can absolutely utilize it in my current driving situation. I don't care about the environment impact of ICE or EV. For me this is purely a practical and financial question. Practicality is fine. Cost is more questionable. I don't think they work as a cost saving proposition(at least not in an absolute context compared to non-premium vehicles). A hybrid Accord vs any Model 3 in terms of total cost to own and Tesla stands no chance. Not even close. But taking performance into consideration changes things quite a bit. Against a premium brand with a similar performance Model 3 is very similar if not better. Even if its performance is quite one-dimensional(acceleration)

I don't particularly like Model 3 looks though(nor Accord actually). I'm not in the hurry. I can keep my current gas guzzler for a while and wait for an EV i actually like.
 
People seem to get all religious about Teslas(and EVs in general). Either for or against. On one side people try to convince others that EV is near perfect and will fit their life just fine regardless how they use their vehicles. One just have to adopt. Many really cannot use EV and/or do not want to adopt to it. Let it go. On the other side I see statements like "I cannot use an EV because of [whatever reason] therefore it's just a niche product." That's just as silly There are a lot of people that use cars differently and will have no problem with having a Tesla as their only vehicle. These people may want to use EVs for all kinds of reasons that ICE drivers may not care about or not understand.
I guess this is the Internet :)

Personally, I like the idea of EV. I can absolutely utilize it in my current driving situation. I don't care about the environment impact of ICE or EV. For me this is purely a practical and financial question. Practicality is fine. Cost is more questionable. I don't think they work as a cost saving proposition(at least not in an absolute context compared to non-premium vehicles). A hybrid Accord vs any Model 3 in terms of total cost to own and Tesla stands no chance. Not even close. But taking performance into consideration changes things quite a bit. Against a premium brand with a similar performance Model 3 is very similar if not better. Even if its performance is quite one-dimensional(acceleration)

I don't particularly like Model 3 looks though(nor Accord actually). I'm not in the hurry. I can keep my current gas guzzler for a while and wait for an EV i actually like.
You may want to rethink the financial aspect.
I have crunched the numbers, a Chevy Bolt vs a Chevy Cruise. The Bolt came ahead after 5 years....
The OpEx is gas vehicles is much higher.

The only reason I have not switched is half of my driving is to ski resorts and the AWD versions do NOT pencil out against my older Subaru. Yet.

Tim

Sent from my SM-J737T using Tapatalk
 
I saw a movie of the wait at the San Luis Obispo Supercharger. There were about as many people waiting as there were stalls, so probably an extra 20-30 minute wait, but the video went viral among Tesla detractors...

... And then a semi trailer was backed in, on which were a Tesla Megapack (3MW battery storage) with 8 additional Superchargers on it, and the line cleared much faster. Pretty smart idea for holiday travel and also for localized events - For example, it'd probably be smart to park one of those at Oshkosh during the show. When it's depleted, they can take it and recharge it somewhere, though that's clearly not at simple as plugging it into a 120V outlet. ;)

TEsla-Mobile-Supercharger-e1575024891429.jpg


https://electrek.co/2019/11/29/tesla-mobile-supercharger-megapack/



Yep. I didn't hear of any problems with lines at Superchargers for the busy travel weekend outside of California.


That mobile charger is a good solution to holiday backups.
 
You may want to rethink the financial aspect.
I have crunched the numbers, a Chevy Bolt vs a Chevy Cruise. The Bolt came ahead after 5 years....
The OpEx is gas vehicles is much higher.

The only reason I have not switched is half of my driving is to ski resorts and the AWD versions do NOT pencil out against my older Subaru. Yet.

Tim

Sent from my SM-J737T using Tapatalk

Maybe you shouldn’t compare it to Cruise.

kbb cost to own 5 years for Bold is $40K
Prius is $33K

edit: this is where I live in MD. Gas is cheap and the difference with electricity is not that drastic. Your location and situation may differ. I was speaking of my situation
 
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People seem to get all religious about Teslas(and EVs in general). Either for or against.

Disagree.

There’s a huge “mushy middle” on what I see as a bell curve of EV acceptance. I think your impression comes from the fact that it’s the folks on either “tail” of the bell curve who are most vocal.

I’m somewhere near the middle right now, where my plug-in hybrid makes the most sense for my use case where some days I need to make 200+ mile trips across the mountains with running around on one end or the other, in a part of the country where charge stations are few and far between. But making all our local trips of 40+ miles or so without the engine even starting has made me a convert and I’ve already got my CyberTruck order in!

As pure EV range increases and cost decreases, we’ll see an inevitable shift in the bell curve. If it ever gets to 1,000 miles of range with a 30 minute charge time, said vehicles will work for 99.9% of drivers. Barring a revolution in battery technology, we’re a long way from that right now, but each incremental shift towards that will grab more and more converts. It’s well nigh inevitable - the only thing to argue about is the time frame. I predict it will happen sooner than many here seem to think, but I guess we’ll find out, won’t we!
 
Disagree.

There’s a huge “mushy middle” on what I see as a bell curve of EV acceptance. I think your impression comes from the fact that it’s the folks on either “tail” of the bell curve who are most vocal.

I’m somewhere near the middle right now, where my plug-in hybrid makes the most sense for my use case where some days I need to make 200+ mile trips across the mountains with running around on one end or the other, in a part of the country where charge stations are few and far between. But making all our local trips of 40+ miles or so without the engine even starting has made me a convert and I’ve already got my CyberTruck order in!

As pure EV range increases and cost decreases, we’ll see an inevitable shift in the bell curve. If it ever gets to 1,000 miles of range with a 30 minute charge time, said vehicles will work for 99.9% of drivers. Barring a revolution in battery technology, we’re a long way from that right now, but each incremental shift towards that will grab more and more converts. It’s well nigh inevitable - the only thing to argue about is the time frame. I predict it will happen sooner than many here seem to think, but I guess we’ll find out, won’t we!

I don't really know what you disagreed with. Your entire post was basically re-enforcing my point that currently pure EV works fine for many people and does not work for many other people. While it is fine that EV people should share their experiences with EV, neither side needs to hammer in how much better their vehicle is in all situations. For some ICE is better for others EV. CURRENTLY. Also currently EVs are not the least expensive option for transportation(for most). Hybrids do this job much better. EV may be better for many people for other reasons. And people certainly do not purchase vehicles on just cost alone. In future(when exactly is unknown), EVs will almost certainly become more cost effective. If for no other reason but gov. regulating ICE out of existence(or making it too expensive). We are not there yet.

EDIT: ok , you disagreed with "religious" part. Yeah, this is on the edges of the argument. And as you said this is the vocal crowd. Of course this is true. Most people are not that passionate about it. I was commenting about the people that argue about it. I guess it's not any different than Mooney vs Cirrus
 
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@FastEddieB

The Nissan Leaf in 2011 had 24kwh battery. In 2017/2018 it was increased to a 40kwh battery.
From what I read; the battery is the same weight and size.

Tim
 
People seem to get all religious about Teslas(and EVs in general). Either for or against. On one side people try to convince others that EV is near perfect and will fit their life just fine regardless how they use their vehicles. One just have to adopt.

Not really. The "for" people I've seen on here and other places are mostly just trying to fight preconceived notions.
Most frequently it's the direct translation of "I fill up gas once every two weeks" -> "Now I'm going to have to spend 40 minutes every two weeks waiting for a refill".

and various road trip miscalculations and overestimations.

If someone truly is in a position where they have to travel somewhere out of their way to use a public charger (including SuperCharger) more than a few times a year, I agree that the EV model doesn't fit them*.

* The exception is if you earn $15 or less per hour, spending an hour SuperCharging is more efficient than spending that time working in order to buy the equivalent amount of gas. It's an uncommon combination though (for now) to own a Tesla and earning $15 or less per hour, but it happens.
 
...On the other side I see statements like "I cannot use an EV because of [whatever reason] therefore it's just a niche product." That's just as silly ...
In 2018, there were about 200,000 EVs sold new in the US, vs 17M ICE vehicles sold. On a cumulative basis, it’s about 1.5M out of 272M total vehicles. That’s kind of the definition of niche, even though it’s growing as a segment.

Though EVs have been around for more than a decade, they may just now be starting to bridge from early adopters to the early majority but, the limiting factor is capacity to scale...it just isn’t there, and probably won’t be for a while unless there’s some outside forcing function that gets applied.

It doesn’t mean EVs are bad/fad/sad, it just means the market demand isn’t aligning with the technology solution. Whether it ever will is a story to be told.
 
In 2018, there were about 200,000 EVs sold new in the US, vs 17M ICE vehicles sold. On a cumulative basis, it’s about 1.5M out of 272M total vehicles. That’s kind of the definition of niche, even though it’s growing as a segment.

Though EVs have been around for more than a decade, they may just now be starting to bridge from early adopters to the early majority but, the limiting factor is capacity to scale...it just isn’t there, and probably won’t be for a while unless there’s some outside forcing function that gets applied.

It doesn’t mean EVs are bad/fad/sad, it just means the market demand isn’t aligning with the technology solution. Whether it ever will is a story to be told.

I suppose. However, a practical and "affordable" EVs(Model 3 and newer entries from Nissan, GM, and Korea) have only been around for about 2-3 years. Current average age of a vehicle on the road is over 11 years. It takes time for people to replace their vehicles.
 
In 2018, there were about 200,000 EVs sold new in the US, vs 17M ICE vehicles sold. On a cumulative basis, it’s about 1.5M out of 272M total vehicles. That’s kind of the definition of niche, even though it’s growing as a segment.

Would you consider the Ford Mustang a niche car?

  • Ford celebrates Mustang’s 55th anniversary today – National Mustang Day – as the world’s best-selling sports coupe of 2018 on the strength of 113,066 cars sold
  • This marks the fourth consecutive year Mustang claims the title of world’s best-selling sports coupe as well as best-selling sports car in the United States"
said it sold nearly 126,000 Mustang coupes and convertibles in 2017 across 146 different countries. The automaker reports that of the 125,809 Mustangs sold last year that 81,866 of those were registered stateside
https://www.google.com/search?q=for.....69i57j0l2.9287j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
 
Would you consider the Ford Mustang a niche car?

Niche model in the ICE segment? Yes. Niche in the sports car segment? No. http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-q2-mid-sized-sports-segment/

But, all Mustangs (and most other 2-door coupe/sports cars) today are part of the larger ICE segment. Just as the Tesla 3 (and all other plug-in EVs) are par of the EV segment. Hybrids are the third propulsion segment as they are both simultaneously and neither solely EV or ICE.
 
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People seem to get all religious about Teslas(and EVs in general). Either for or against. On one side people try to convince others that EV is near perfect and will fit their life just fine regardless how they use their vehicles. One just have to adopt. Many really cannot use EV and/or do not want to adopt to it. Let it go. On the other side I see statements like "I cannot use an EV because of [whatever reason] therefore it's just a niche product." That's just as silly There are a lot of people that use cars differently and will have no problem with having a Tesla as their only vehicle.

I don't try to convince others that EV is fine regardless of how they use their vehicles. But there are a LOT of people out there for whom an EV would work really well, and there is a LOT of misinformation and outright confusion about EVs. I like to counter the misinformation, and answer questions to solve the confusion, because after buying my first PHEV on a whim, I discovered that electric driving is really cool, and I think there are many people who will be happier with it. Certainly not everybody, and for some people they'll need to wait a few years for better technology and/or lower initial costs, but I think EVs are where we're going to end up in 20-30 years except for a few niche uses.

For me this is purely a practical and financial question. Practicality is fine. Cost is more questionable. I don't think they work as a cost saving proposition(at least not in an absolute context compared to non-premium vehicles). A hybrid Accord vs any Model 3 in terms of total cost to own and Tesla stands no chance. Not even close.

That depends. If you're a new-car-every-three-years kind of person, EVs are unlikely to be practical, though if you get a new car every three years I can't imagine you value financial practicality in all areas of your life... There's plenty of analysis of this issue, and a good one that links to a Google sheet where you can put in your own values for the variables is here - They show that the Model 3's TCO is similar to a Honda Civic for a 5-year ownership timeframe: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/14/tesla-model-3-vs-honda-civic-15-cost-comparisons-over-5-years/

What does the resale look like on a few year old EV?

Depends what it is. For Teslas, the resale is surprisingly good. As someone who would love to buy a used one, this drives me a bit nuts! I see a lot of Model 3s that are a year old that are going for within $1000 of what the same one would be brand new! For older ones, a lot depends on which version of Autopilot it has (or doesn't) because cars without any autopilot cannot be upgraded to have it, and cars with "Autopilot Hardware 1" (the MobilEye ones) cannot be upgraded to Autopilot 2 or later (the Tesla in-house design that has 8 cameras and will be full self driving capable). Autopilot 2 and later cars (late 2016, and all 2017s and later) definitely fetch a premium over the earlier ones.

For other EVs, especially older and shorter range ones, it's the opposite. Older Leafs, for example, are pretty darn cheap. I bought my loaded 2013 Volt Premier a hair over a year ago for under $10K.

I would imagine that newer non-Tesla EVs will fare somewhat better, especially those brands that have figured out how to make better batteries that don't degrade much, and will likely follow a similar depreciation pattern as ICEVs, or potentially be worth more in the longer term as there are fewer mechanical things to fail. 10 years from today, comparing a 10-year-old EV vs a 10-year-old ICEV, both of which will have depreciated significantly so that OpEx is much more important than CapEx, the ICEV will be worthless in comparison, provided there's a sufficient supply of 10-year-old EVs to meet demand.

As pure EV range increases and cost decreases, we’ll see an inevitable shift in the bell curve. If it ever gets to 1,000 miles of range with a 30 minute charge time, said vehicles will work for 99.9% of drivers.

I doubt you'll ever see a 1000-mile range EV in the form they exist today (ie, Lithium battery powered). You'd have to carry around thousands of extra pounds of batteries, which means lower efficiency (and thus the need for more batteries!) and high cost. A 500-mile range EV with a 10-minute charge time is far better, easier, cheaper, etc... Or a 300-mile EV with a 5-minute charge time.

Exceptions: A vehicle designed for towing, but not actually towing anything, might be able to make it 1000 miles. And eventually, maybe we'll have supercapacitors instead of batteries and the weight won't matter as much.
 
That depends. If you're a new-car-every-three-years kind of person, EVs are unlikely to be practical, though if you get a new car every three years I can't imagine you value financial practicality in all areas of your life... There's plenty of analysis of this issue, and a good one that links to a Google sheet where you can put in your own values for the variables is here - They show that the Model 3's TCO is similar to a Honda Civic for a 5-year ownership timeframe: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/14/tesla-model-3-vs-honda-civic-15-cost-comparisons-over-5-years/

First, that comparison uses non-hybrid car. Try that same thing with Clarity. Second $5/Gallon?!?!?!. It's less than 1/2 of that in most of the country.
 
Here is "fuel" cost comparison for Model 3 and Clarity(based on EPA). Where I live.

Model 3 gets 3.3 miles per Kwh. Clarity combined(never plug it in): 42 mpg. Gas price $2.40. Electricity price $0.15kwh(.12+.03 for charging loss and efficiency loss in non-ideal conditions, like winter), 5 years, 15,000m/year=75,000 miles.

Model 3 will use $3400 in electricity
Clarity will use $4200 in gas

Saving of whopping $800 over 5 years.

You can add a few hundred dollars with extra MX cost on Clarity. And compare purchase price of about $23,000 vs near $39,000 for cheapest Model 3.

Interest alone on the difference is going to eat most of that 800 in savings if you finance the car.

Edit: By the way, even regular Civic with 36 mpg will only be another $800 over 5 years. And it's a few thousands cheaper than Clarity.
 
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That Tesla to Civic comparison is obviously slanted. $5 a gallon? The current EV tax credit is only $1,875 and will end this month. Conveniently left out insurance costs between the two. States are now charging an EV tax as well.

Tweaking the numbers to present a biased view.
 
I forgot what the point of all this is?

The only reasonable posts on here are those that say that EVs aren't the right choice for their OWN mission, or those that say it is.

We all know that EVs won't fit everyone's mission. What else is to be said about them? Yet we have over 1075 posts on the topic. Has anyone changed their mind because of this?

All I know is that ICE cars suck and EVs RULE!
 
That Tesla to Civic comparison is obviously slanted. $5 a gallon? The current EV tax credit is only $1,875 and will end this month. Conveniently left out insurance costs between the two. States are now charging an EV tax as well.

Tweaking the numbers to present a biased view.

yep, it's not even $5/gal in Los Angeles
 
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