Tesla Model 3 - Now I get the hype.

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by flyingcheesehead, Nov 9, 2018.

  1. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    Ouch is right.

    Our Clarity has a lot of aluminum panels, so it is likely similarly affected. On our owner’s forum, there are numerous cars with what looks like light to moderate damage from accidents that end up totaled. Maybe the aluminum is part of that problem.

    I wonder how this applies to the stainless steel panels in the Cybertruck? It is allegedly less likely need to repairs, considering the demo with the sledgehammer. But once it does yield to impact, how difficult is it to work with, and how many body shops have the expertise to do so?

    Of course, that’s why we carry comp insurance, but if repair rates are inordinately high it will almost certainly be reflected by higher premiums.
     
  2. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    I have the same kind of dent in my Subaru from where someone clipped me in a parking lot. Cost to fix was over 4K; and this is a base model Legacy. Less than half the price of that Model 3.
    Basically, I think cars more and more are being made in such a way that they are not easily repaired.

    Tim
     
  3. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Not necessarily. The cost of repairs is one factor, but the frequency of claims is even more important.
     
  4. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    Excellent point.
     
  5. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    I know TSLA has a lot of short sellers betting against it.

    It closed today over $400. I hope they have either deep pockets or lots of patience or both.
     
  6. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    I hope it's the deep pockets.
     
  7. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    Ouch!

    [​IMG]

    I’ve never been a fan of shorting stock in companies you think suck. If you’re wrong, your downside is virtually infinite. At least if you’re long in a company you think will succeed and it fails, the most you can lose is your investment.

    I’d rather “bet” on winners than losers anyway.
     
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  8. 1RTK1

    1RTK1 Cleared for Takeoff

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    That's why you use PUTS, the downside is known and limited. Overall I have made money on puts and calls, come to think of it I have never been hurt on futures either.

    Quick factoid, when I first started trading 40 years ago the stock brokerage company was willing to let me play futures which had unlimited loss potential but would not let me buy puts or calls. When I asked why, they said puts and calls were like legalized gambling. My response was you would let me lose everything I own and then some but wouldn't let me purchase a put or call where you know the most I could lose is a couple of hundred dollars... You got it they said.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2019
  9. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    To each their own.

    “Investing” for me now means purchasing a security or asset with hopes of future appreciation, often combined with dividends. I’ve benefited from that strategy in the long run.

    I did “play” with options a couple of times a long time ago, but it seemed more like gambling, or at least speculating. There’s a place for that, just not for me.
     
  10. 1RTK1

    1RTK1 Cleared for Takeoff

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    I agree when it comes to retirement, the long game with quality is the prudent move, but I have other accounts that I like rolling the dice with.
     
  11. G-Man

    G-Man Line Up and Wait

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    Met a friend for dinner tonight. She picked me up in her brand-new, 540-mile Tesla 3. And let me drive. (This is a wonderful friend.)

    Boy, this is a cool car! Weird dash, great visibility especially forward, no noise, stunningly shockingly fast with minimal awareness of its mass. Comfortable, great heat and heated seats.

    Dash setup is a bit wacky with the big screen and I didn't have time to mess with it, but probably not more wacky than other current cars. I also didn't get to experience the adaptive cruise control or any of the autodrive functions. Very good, crisp headlights, though, which increasingly matters a lot.

    I had pretty high expectations, and they were exceeded. For her final cost of mid-$30Ks, this is probably better than other cars I've seen.

    None of the above even considers the ICE vs electric debate. She has solar panels, so the operating cost of this car will be extremely low with essentially free charging and very limited maintenance.

    I was damn impressed.
     
  12. wsuffa

    wsuffa Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I'm still of the opinion that it's not the right solution for me. At least not yet. I make a drive from DC to Cincinnati several times a year. And I like to take something other than the interstate (if for no other reason that the never-ending road construction at Wheeling, WV is a long and frustrating delay. Even on the interstate, the preferred route is I-68 through western Maryland and part of WV.

    Tesla has only recently installed supercharger at a couple of places along I68 and on I70 to Columbus. In the summer, that route will probably work with 2-3 stops. In winter, with lower battery range and cold temperatures (and the mountains...) it would take 3-4 stops. For the route off the interstate (Ohio 32 and US50), superchargers are harder to find and other chargers seem to be at hotels for guests only. Because of the locations, it becomes a 3-4 stop trip in winter. In a gas vehicle (1 short fuel stop, plus 2 short bathroom brakes) it's a 9 hour trip. Adding 45 minutes to an hour at a supercharger, per stop, plus any time spent waiting for one to become available makes it something closer to an 11 hour trip in winter. Which becomes much less practical.

    Yeah a GA plane makes it easier (well, as long as there's no icing....), but that's not nearly as reliable.

    Perhaps someday, but right now it's not practical for the long trips I make. YMMV.
     
  13. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    @wsuffa

    Your math does not compute. That is roughly a 500 mile trip. Tesla Model 3, has over 300 mile range. That is a single stop.
    A Chevy Bolt, can often go over 300 miles if you are a "hyper miler"; and the base range is theoretically 240 ish.
    The battery drop you mention due to weather is not nearly as much as you are overstating.

    Tim
     
  14. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    My wife "sorta" wants a Tesla, and I am about to pull the trigger and get her one. But the reason I say "sorta" is that we installed a Borla exhaust system in her BMW to get her the "throaty" rumbling sound she likes. Has anyone heard of an electronic way of mimicking that sound in an EV?
     
  15. GRG55

    GRG55 Final Approach

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    https://newatlas.com/soundracer-ev-engine-sound-eveess/54140/

     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2020
  16. wsuffa

    wsuffa Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I know what it's rated for. And it does compute.

    Look at the mountains crossed on I68 in MD/WV - the regerative braking doesn't even come close to making up for the climbs. In fact, in my gas-powered truck, there is a 15-20 percent penalty on the route (compared to the flat lands - and that's with coasting down the hills). In winter, it's not uncommon to see temps from 0-10 degrees F going across I68, which is a significant impact on the battery climbing the mountains. Passed a Model S that was doing 45 across the mountains, where the limit is 70 - don't know why, but driver didn't look happy.

    Given the lack of convenient charging stations, it is not prudent at this time to buy in, especially at the cost of the machine. Summer is probably OK with 2 stops (as recommended by the planner) given where the chargers are located, dead of winter is not something I'd be comfortable with. The charging situation is improving - the supercharger in Morgantown was brought online this past fall (not that there's anything to do nearby while waiting.... But that's a different story).

    The trip is 550 miles via Wheeling, closer to 600 if I go the less-trafficked (and nicer ride) route through Parkersburg.

    Maybe you'd be comfortable doing it and risking that no charger is down. For me, 550 miles on a 300 mile rating with one stop cuts it too close, especially when it can't be recharged at the exact midpoint. Same reason that I don't like flying to exact fuel minimums. S**t happens.
     
  17. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    @wsuffa

    The 600 miles aspect and lack of a charger at mid point do make it problematic. I think you are one of the few in the position who should wait until more charging stations are available, longer range is available, or just rent a car for the road trips. FYI; a few years ago I calculated the cost for a trip from MD to NH; roughly 600 miles; it was cheaper to rent a car than pay the gas and wear/tear on my crew cab truck.

    Tim
     
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  18. John Myers

    John Myers Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Long range trips in cold weather on routes without a convenient supercharger are the one use case I would still recommend a gas/diesel car. That’s becoming a very rare situation though.
     
  19. Larry in TN

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    I think it is closer than you think. A good tool to try some "what ifs" is www.ABetterRoutePlanner.com. It has a ton of settings that you can adjust including temperature, wind, and road conditions.

    I don't know all the specifics of your trip but ran an example for a long-range Model 3 from Washington, DC to Cincinnati. It planned a route of 501 miles with 8:20 driving and 1:03 charging. I started the trip with a 90% charge.

    I think you have a couple of misconceptions about Supercharging.

    1. The fastest way to cover a distance is not to charge the battery up to, or even near, 100% at each stop as you do with an ICE vehicle. The battery charges fastest when it is under 80%, or so, then the rate of charge drops as you continue charging toward 100%. To maximize charging speed, which will minimize total time spent charging, you will drain the battery down to 5% (or whatever you're comfortable with) then only charge enough to make it to your next stop with 5% remaining.

    In my example trip, the planner scheduled three charging stops of 0:17, 0:27, and 0:17. That has you departing each Supercharger with 68%, 79%, and 57% and driving a little over two-hours between stops. Total cost for SuperCharging for the trip is $28.00.

    2. It is unusual to wait for a Supercharger. When that happens, it is almost always in Los Angeles or San Francisco. Both cities, and their surrounding areas, have more Supercharging stations under construction than are currently in service. The Supercharger network is a very big advantage for Tesla over other EVs.

    There certainly is a time penalty for EVs as compared to ICE but it is not as much as most people assume.

    One other advantage when driving a Tesla, at least, on a long trip is Autopilot. Even without the full-self driving option, Autopilot will drive the car, in your lane, at your selected speed, slowing to follow traffic as needed. With the Autopilot upgrade, it'll drive from on-ramp to off-ramp changing lanes, taking the correct interchange exits, etc. In either case, it's a significant reduction in driver fatigue on a long trip.
     
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  20. John Myers

    John Myers Pre-takeoff checklist

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    If you’re really in a big hurry probably won’t work, otherwise I don’t think stopping for a break every couple hours on a trip you do only occasionally isn’t anything to base a decision on. There are way bigger differences between this car and a gas car.
     
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  21. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Like I said, @3393RP... It's not a good idea to bet against Elon Musk.

    Tesla's Gigafactory 3 in China is producing 1500 cars per week in a single shift right now, and hiring for a second shift, and delivering China-made cars to customers there.

    All those reasons you said there was no possible way they could do it... Well, like I said, they make things happen by doing things differently.

    https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-china-1-5k-model-3-output/
    https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/30/21042493/tesla-chinese-model-3-cars-gigafactory-3-shanghai
    https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/21/tech/tesla-china-model-3-factory/index.html
    https://www.dw.com/en/teslas-china-gigafactory-delivers-first-model-3-in-less-than-a-year/a-51832706

    Pretty impressive.

    They've selected the site of Gigafactory 4 near Berlin. This one won't go up quite as quick as the area is forested and that needs to be cut down (they're going to plant 3 trees for every one they cut down as well). But, they said Gigafactory 4 will be on line in 2021... And I wouldn't bet against them.
     
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  22. 3393RP

    3393RP En-Route

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    I can't find any news source that doesn't use the production claims by a blogger or an unnamed Chinese Tesla employee. There aren't any drone shots on the internet of those thousands of cars coming out of the plant, nor are there photos of the production line.

    Strange, isn't it?
     
  23. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Seriously? This took literally 10 seconds to find:

     
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  24. 1RTK1

    1RTK1 Cleared for Takeoff

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    Just imagine how fast we could build in America if we had similar regulations as china
     
  25. Rogue_Ryder

    Rogue_Ryder Filing Flight Plan

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    Very Similar to this guy!


    The lack of support from Tesla for DIY or any Independent mechanic to fix the vehicle is a huge turn off for me. The Model 3 @ $35K is probably the best deal for any new car. If you look at from a $/mile standpoint. You are getting a bargain. You could probably end up with a cheaper $/mile and overall cost with something like a Chevy Spark (the cheapest car in America), but you're driving around in a much lesser car.
    [​IMG]

    For the typical person buying a Camry vs a Model 3 and you need to do a big road trip (like 600 miles 1 way that would make recharging mid trip a PITA) say 4 times a year the Tesla still makes sense over an ICE car, because you can go to Avis and rent ANYTHING for the trip and return the car to them at the end of your trip. Doing this also saves you several thousand miles of wear and tear on your personal vehicle not to mention the extra depreciation.
     
  26. genna

    genna Cleared for Takeoff

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    I'm not really buying these comparisons. First, this looks like a straight MSRP to MSRP comparison. Nobody pays sticker for Camry. This is a $21K car on the market. Maybe even less. Then for some reason Tesla has way better resale value than the most sought after used brand, Toyota.

    Then you can keep that Camry for 15 years if you like with minimal MX. Yes, fuel is going to cost more, but it's not 4x more. More like 2x. The MX on out of warranty Tesla is a really big question mark.
     
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  27. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Teslas do in fact hold their value way better than any ICE car, including Toyota. I know, I've been trying to find an affordable one for about 5 years now. :(

    Lately I've been looking at used Model 3s. They're so close to the cost of new model 3s that it's just not even worth considering used IMO. In a large number of cases, the asking prices are within a few hundred dollars of the price of a brand new Model 3.

    Two things are going to cause changes to the situation: First, when we hit three years from the time Tesla started leasing Model 3s, IF they don't have the Tesla Network up and running and release them onto the used market, the extra supply will put some downward pressure on the price. Otherwise, if Tesla has some sort of major hardware upgrade - Let's say they introduce a 500-mile battery pack for the 3 that costs maybe $5K more, and enough existing owners decide to trade up to that, there will again be some used supply to help put downward pressure on used prices.

    However, at the moment Tesla is making cars as fast as they can and selling every dang one of 'em... Supply, demand, and all that jazz. The size of the market is increasing faster than the cars are being produced, so values are remaining very high.

    It's more like 3x. Every time I've done that calculation it comes out close to 3x as expensive per mile to fuel an ICEV vs charge a BEV.
     
  28. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Strange that you can't find the drone footage, yes.
     
  29. Larry in TN

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    Not really. I addressed that in post 1139.
     
  30. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    EVERY objection has been addressed, multiple times. But they keep popping up like the mole in "whack a mole".

    It all boils down to the fact that a Tesla is not for everybody. Some people admit it is a good vehicle but just doesn't meet their needs; yet. But some people seem to think that since it doesn't fit every need of every person then it is a stupid car. People say the Tesla truck is not viable because it can't tow a train up a mountain at top speed without needing to recharge on the way up. I say that any truck that can do that is a useless niche vehicle for all but a minuscule portion of truck buyers.

    The only thing my wife doesn't like about the Tesla is that it doesn't sound like a real car. One of the things I like about them is that they don't sound like ICE cars. But we will probably be buying two Teslas in the next two years. She'll get the model 3 and I'll get the truck.

    The only reason I am holding off on her model 3 now is that she has a beautiful 2011 BMW 328i with only 40k miles on it, but the resale value is only around $5k. It is much more valuable to us than $5k. And the two of us certainly don't need three vehicles.
     
  31. WWFeldman

    WWFeldman Filing Flight Plan

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    As to repairs on the truck, well you can't repair the stainless steel panels, they would be remove and replace only. This was the problem with the Delorean. If those panels get bent you can't just bend them back out close and slap a little bondo in to smooth things out, no paint to cover up the bondo. So you're stuck replacing the panels.

    I just don't see that truck coming to market as it is. They are talking 3 mm thick stainless for those panels, that's extremely heavy. For comparison the car/truck you drive every day has around .8 mm thick body panels. That's not to mention all the extra stiffeners they would have to put behind those flat panels to keep them from oilcanning going down the road. That's a whole lot of extra weight and weight is a big enemy of electric vehicles.
     
  32. Brad W

    Brad W Pre-takeoff checklist

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    you could in theory bondo over the repair then paint the whole truck!

    but as I understand it, theirs less or no frame under it like you have with the thinner paneled body.
     
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  33. Larry in TN

    Larry in TN Cleared for Takeoff

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    I guess the point I'm trying to make is that it is for a lot more folks than many people think.

    It wasn't that long ago that EVs were really niche cars. When many people hear EV, they think of the low-range 'compliance vehicles' that most EVs were up until very recently. Tesla has changed that and now other manufacturers are building, or have announced, cars that are also pushing into the mainstream with their capabilities.

    Tesla currently has a huge advantage with its SuperCharger network. VW is trying to match them with Electrify America but they aren't there yet. Still to many problems with getting their chargers to work. They'll be there soon, though, and they'll have a charging network that rivals Tesla's for cars that support DC fast charging.

    For those who are interested in EV road trip performance, there are a lot of YouTube videos documenting EV road trips. Compare a couple Model 3 road trips to Bolt road trips to see where we really are.
     
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  34. Rogue_Ryder

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    One of the better ones on the Tesla


    I'd still go Avis vs taking the extra hours added to an already long and painful road trip.
     
  35. MIFlyer

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    2000 miles is a jet
    >1000 is piston ac
    >180 is a car


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  36. genna

    genna Cleared for Takeoff

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    Yes, more like 3x, still the comparison was showing almost 4x. The more highway miles you do, the less of a difference it is. M3 is too new to be able to tell how well it will hold its value. I suspect it will do quite well up to warranty period and then not so well. Market is changing so much that it is hard to predict it, however. Older Model S are pretty comparable with similarly priced ICE cars in price.

    Still, just for that comparison sake, the electricity vs gas difference is not as large as given in most of the country and one would not be paying as much for the base Camry LE. This brings the cost to own the Camry down by probably $3-4K in that comparison. Which puts it below M3. On top of it, I have no idea who spends $4000 for MX/Repair on Camry in first 5 years. Maybe people that go to dealer for EVERYTHING. Most don't come close to that number. I haven't come close to that number on my car and it's far more expensive to maintain and more troublesome than a Camry.

    I like Tesla, but not for the cost reasons. At least not in absolute terms.

    If you compare it to luxury cars like BMW/Audi, then yes, it is a lot less expensive to own. Comparing it to basic good cheap cars that one would own for many, many years, I have my reservations
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
  37. flyingcheesehead

    flyingcheesehead Touchdown! Greaser!

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    His method has one fatal flaw: He always kept a 15% buffer. That means he was charging a lot longer than he needed to be. If you want to get places fast, the best way to do it is to charge only until you have the range to make the next stop. Because charging gets slower the fuller the battery gets, going from say 80% to 0% is way faster than 95% to 15%.
     
  38. NealRomeoGolf

    NealRomeoGolf Pattern Altitude

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  39. Larry in TN

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    That is a good video.

    He said that it was his first long trip in the Tesla which is why he used a conservative 15% at arrival at each SuperCharger. That significantly increased his time spent charging due to the charging profile of the battery. i.e. charges fastest at low levels of charge and slowest at high levels of charge. From other videos, once owners gain experience with road trips in their cars, they typically plan arriving at Superchargers at around 5%.

    I used www.aBetterRoutePlanner.com (ABRP) to planned a similar trip. I did Nashville to Palm Springs which worked out to 2010 miles, 47 miles longer than the trip in the video. I left "home" at 100% and specified a minimum of 5% when arriving at Superchargers and 10% at destination. I planned with an AWD long-range Model 3 with 18" Aero wheels. (I agree with him on the low-profile tires. I don't like them! The 18" Aero wheels will greater reduce the chance of the tire damage he experienced from a pothole. You can remove the plastic "Aero" covers when driving at home to expose good-looking alloy wheels)

    My result was 30:27 driving time and 5:14 charging time. Total cost of Supercharging was $82.00. Charging times were much shorter than his. The longest on my plan was 0:24.

    Realistically, you aren't going to drive a 30:27 trip straight through. I'd stop twice, someone younger might do it in two long days and only one stop. If you pick hotels with destination chargers then you're charging overnight and get to start the next morning at a high state of charge. This will cut at least one, and possibly two, Supercharger stops out of the trip per night spent at a destination charger.

    It looked like he used the car's built in trip planner which defaults to minimizing the number of charging stops. ABRP defaults to minimizing total charging time. Depending on how often you want to stop vs. how quickly you want to arrive, the best answer may be somewhere in between and will likely change from trip to trip, or day to day.

    I disagree with him on Autopilot. He didn't get it. To me, Autopilot is a huge advantage on road trips to reduce driver fatigue.

    An interesting stat from the video was that he completed the 1963 mile trip on the energy equivalent of 16.6 gallons of gasoline. That's impressive.

    Meanwhile, Tesla is busy installing new version 3 Supercharging stations which can charge a Model 3 at up to 1000 mph (miles of range added per hour). That will significantly change the charging time stats when they are widely available.
     
  40. WWFeldman

    WWFeldman Filing Flight Plan

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    WWFeldman
    Paint would be an option, an expensive option.

    I know there's no frame under it, just don't know if the loss of the frame weight equals the extra weight of those 3mm body panels. You're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 300-400 pounds for a full size pickup bare frame.

    Using an online calculator I found for getting weight of mild steel gave me the following.
    A 1ftx1ft square of mild steel .8mm thick weighs 1.29 lbs.
    A 1ftx1ft square of mild steel 3mm thick weights 4.82 lbs.

    Found a vehicle vinyl wrap website that says a late model Ford F150 crew cab would have about 280 square feet of body panels to cover.
    280 sqft x 1.29lbs = 361.2 lbs
    280 sqft x 4.82lbs = 1349.6 lbs

    Course this is all estimations at best, but that looks hard to overcome.