So what do think will happen???

So now that the alphabet orgs are reporting the difficulties the airlines are having meeting the ADS-B mandate. What do you think will happen?

 

The extension that I always believed would happen.

 

Simple. Light GA aircraft will be banned from controlled airspace until the airlines catch up.
That's how the government regulatory mind seems to work these days.

 

Their is no difficulties except they don't want to pay for it.

 

Most likely, if this is the case, the airlines will get a couple of year extension, but GA will still be mandated by Jan 1, 2020. The airlines just don't want to pay for crap they aren't forced to pay for. So they're hoping to use the whole "Promote Aviation" FAA mandate against them in strong-arming them into say " Nah, You know what Y'all don't have to do it. Screw ICAO."

 

If ADS-B went away tomorrow, the only significant impact would be to the FAA.

 

The FAA will give in to the airlines with an extension. Allowing them to bring on new equipment ,ADSB equipped,not having to update their older air raft. While GA will be forced to comply.

 

They'll be given extensions. GA will not. Different spanks for different ranks. What else is new?

 

Temporary waivers if they have TCAS?

 

Likely not. TCAS actively interrogates Mode A/C transponders for the collision avoidance portion.

If they are using TCAS for and have authorization to perform ITPs (In Trail Procedures) they already have a WAAS GPS connected to their Mode S transponder and are broadcasting ADS-B.

 

I'll bet ADS-B compliance for an airliner isn't 10% of the value of the airframe. That's what us GA flibs are potentially looking at. The airlines will get a waiver because what else can they do?

 

With the nifty uAvionix skyBeacon receiving its TSO approval, the airlines should be able to get equipped pronto!

On the serious side, the FAA has said repeatedly that there would be no extensions. In my opinion, they should standby that and if the airlines can't get ready with all of the time they have had, then too freakin' bad. I really don't see an extension being granted, but if they do grant an extension it should apply to everyone.

 

GA is getting by just fine considering that we are talking here a few hundred thousand people ( plane owners and pilots ) vs an industry serving 10s of millions of people.

If there is ever an existential argument between commercial/airline industry and GA, it will the end of GA if airline operators play it right - all they need to do is present this as an argument between few rich plane owners and 100s of millions of people whose convenience of commercial travel if being threatened.
It will be Meigs field debacle on the national scale.

 

So you're saying the Moon landing wasn't real?

 

Yes, definitely, if that will make you go away and enjoy the rest of your weekend...

 

yup. the FCC kept extending a deadline for our comm center to move to 12.5 kHz separation...I retired 13-yrs ago and that "mandate" is still not in ink.

 

This

 

For the airlines, yes, they will get waivers, extensions, etc.

GA will keep the same hard deadline, no mercy. Thankfully I'm already never granted Bravo clearance, and almost never visit Charlie fields. So look out your windows for me . . . .

 

The military has already said they won't be compliant in time, so I imagine that the FAA will just apply whatever plan they have to deal with the military after the deadline.

 

The landings were real.
The whole, so called, "Saturn V" rocket thing, on the other hand, was just a cover for the actual UFO technology that was required to get to the moon.

 

Exactly what I thought when I saw the OP.

hypothetical:
AOPA, EAA etc to the FAA - "We can't make the deadline, can we have an extension?"
FAA to GA - "Hahahaha, as if!"

 

Most airliners are tracked pretty closely already. In the big scheme of things I don’t see them as benefitting from ADS-B as much as other airpace users.

 

Here is a sobering statistic: there are currently 59,000 aircraft with ADS-B installs, and 219,000 registered aircraft in the US. The rate of installs is currently dead linear at about 1800 per month. At this rate will take 90 years to complete installs for the entire fleet. Even if you assume only half of registered aircraft intend or need to comply, that would take "only" 45 years. The major airlines look like they are making good progress, e.g. Delta has almost 500 aircraft equipped, which is around half its mainline fleet.

In addition, apparently only 88% of installs are "good". Here's hoping my install is in the 88% considering what it costs.

Data from the FAA.

 

One benefit might be better avoidance of mid air collision with GA and more direct routings, but that probably depends on more widespread GA adoption to assure separation?

 

Not sure about your math. 1800 per month equals 21,600 per year. 219,000 registered aircraft, minus the 59,000 already installed leaves 160,000 to go. 160,000 divided by 21,600 per year comes out to just less than 8 years, not 90.

 

Math is hard.

 

Must have punched in an extra zero somewhere! So 8 years, yes.

 

No worries, did the same thing myself on a different post.

 

Yep. I've been saying this for years. If it is not the airlines then it will be the rich and famous who suddenly get told they can't fly to the superbowl and then the delays will come for them and all the other donors.

 

It's actually 88 MONTHS, not years. Units conversion issue. So it's a 2026 or 2022 mandate depending on equipage percentage goals.

 

It just got 0.6 years faster!

 

Besides your math error which has been corrected, I have a question about your raw data. Does the 219,000 registered aircraft number include aircraft that do not have electrical systems and are therefore exempt? Does it include aircraft whose owners have no intent to equip because they do not operate in the airspace that requires it? In other words, are you analyzing the correct data set?

 

219,000 is just the total number of US registered aircraft. I don't know how many of these do not have electrical systems, or even if the FAA has that data. At any rate, the total number of registered aircraft is sufficient to give a rough idea of where we are at. There is of course no way of determining from FAA data how many owners with electrical systems are not intending to equip their aircraft. But if the number of aircraft required or intending to comply were 50% of registered aircraft, it would still not be possible to meet the mandate deadline unless the rate of installation increases dramatically.

 

They get waivers while others get shaft.

 

Life used to be so much easier.
I used to fly around and toss aluminum chaff out the windows.
Now I'm going to have to build little electronic gadgets, (with parachutes on some of them) to toss out the windows.
Oh well.
Oblade, oblada.

I'm thinking a nordo P-51 to liven things up?

 

If I buy an airplane that was "originally certified without an electrical system", but had one added post-certification, can I just yank the transponder out and keep the rest of the electrons? My other option is to remove the electrical system and Velcro an iPad to the panel . . .

 

Electrical system or not, if you don't intend to fly in Class B or C airspace, or above 10,000 feet, you don't have to install ADS-B. I know some that won't out of principal. I know my co-owners and I discussed it, as our one airplane rarely goes anywhere.

 

Rger roger; I don't intend to fly above 1,000 AGL. NORDO, no XPDR.

 

As written for both transponder and ADS-B, originially certified without ENGINE driven electrical and never added, it is exempt. If an engine driven electrical system was ever added, even if removed, it is no longer exempt. Lots of these old Cubs/Champs/120/Luscombe 8A/etc with added engine driven electrical will find a smaller segment of the buyer's market after 2020 as anyone living where ADS-B is required, won't want it if the logs show it once had engine driven system. A wind driven gen/alternator is exempt however. Or a system with no charging capability, but with starter, battery, radios, et al.

 

add the 30 nm mode C ring that surrounds an awful lot of urban areas to your no-fly zone.

Transponders: 91 215 (3) Notwithstanding paragraph (b)(2) of this section, any aircraft which was not originally certificated with an engine-driven electrical system...
ADS-B: 91 225 (e) The requirements of paragraph (b) of this section do not apply to any aircraft that was not originally certificated with an electrical system...

The "engine driven" got removed from the ADS-B rule. So even without an engine driven generator/alternator, if you have a starter, radio, whatever, you get to install ADS-B if you want to penetrate the 30nm ring of death.