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Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by JOhnH, Mar 16, 2020.
Then you were doing it wrong.
I'm trying to think of ways to free up cash to buy in right now. This hysteria will end, might be only weeks, might be months, might take a couple of years. In any case it seems like stocks are a bargain right now for the right opportunistic investor.
Refi. Not that I’d do it, but it’s an option.
If you're of retirement age, you can enjoy the warmth of "well at least that covid virus didn't get us" while gnawing that shoe sole with fingerless gloves.
...or, the virus gets you, and that 30% haircut doesn't seem like such a big deal while you wait for a turn with a $5,000 ventilator.
I think you accidentally dropped a few zeros off that number.
Gold is the last chance flight to cash. That's what we're are seeing. You buy gold because the shysters convince you that you must own gold. Then, you sell it because you're preparing for the zombie apocalypse. I bought some gold at under $200/oz, then sold it at just under $1,000/oz. Never had the urge to buy any again.
I retired yesterday. I moved retirement years #3 & 4 anticipated cash needs into fixed assets about 6 months ago because, i thought then that the market was long and hot. If I burn through all cash and non stock assets before the market recovers, I'm betting that whats in my pantry will mean more than whats in my brokerage account.
The good thing about being retired is that you don't need to be worried about losing your job.
I totally understand accounts taking a hit. But now stocks are at a discount. If one has the money usually times like this are the time to buy. Unless this is the final economic crash, it'll all come back with a vengeance once this is over with.
So what are the best picks?
Boeing is at $129, and will probably go further.
Good catch, I added that to my list.
Also on there is AAL, UAL, DAL, SPX, SPY.
Not saying it won’t go a fair amount lower, but I bought today. I’ll do more of the same as called for.
Yeah. One strategy is just keep buying on the way down. Eventually it will turn (unless as I said it is the 'final' economic crash. )
As long as you have a portfolio approach. It didn't work so well with GE and IBM
Oh, yeah. That was a great book. Read it back in the 70s.
As an addendum to my post above about moving my 401K accounts to cash, I will add that this is the first time in 45 years of investing I have completely abandoned equity positions. During the 2008 meltdown, I stayed the course, as I had time to do so. Now that a dozen years have passed and I have a more limited amount of years left, it felt like the correct thing to do.
Since I made that move on 2/25, the DJIA has fallen 32%, and the vehicles I had invested in have lost 24%. That would have made me experience some sleepless nights.
I absolutely agree with the strategy of riding out the upheavals, but this time around it was something that had not ever occurred in the past, and the fear factor was palpable. That fear showed up again today.
I have been busy this week looking at individual stocks, and I believe Boeing, along with other defense conglomerates like Lockheed Martin, have been oversold and an opportunity is there.
Of course, there's a long list of stocks that meet that description tonight.
I dumped $75k into the market today. If it slides more I have another $50k ready.
Then again I am not retiring for 30 years.
The last advice I was given about gold said, if it goes below $800.per ounce buy.
Agreed but I try to keep it all in perspective. I've been dollar cost averaging 2X a month since the Dow was 2000 and the S&P 575. I see no reason to stop this strategy and I have faith in 3 years, when we're ready to retire, it will be fine.
I'm finding it very hard to resist BRK.B at this level.
That's what I did with GM. I thought GM will never go under. But guess what? I lost a ton on that stupid move.
And all this rah-rah, "good time to buy at a discount" doesn't take into consideration that a whole bunch of companies may go belly up if this doesn't turn around soon.
In spite of my OP, the slide didn't stop. Yesterday was the 3rd worst day for the market in history. It is the first time I lost well into 6 digits, and that was on top of all the other 6 digit (paper) losses I have accumulated lately. I have enough cash to last several more months before turning those paper losses into permanent losses. That is what I am worried about.
Don’t try to catch a falling knife...or in this case, knives.
Excellent article that posted last night on WSJ.com discussing how the volume trading algorithms are amplifying the sell off.
My theory is, when airline and travel stocks start to turn (some of the hardest hit economic sectors), the bottom will be in. Until then, the market has lower to go.
Doesn't really count if they get big checks from a bailout. But I agree with the sentiment that the bottom isn't in yet. Maybe a better indicator of the bottom being in is when there's a surplus of TP. (No pun intended).
If you shorted about a month ago, you can go ahead and sleep easy...
That will have very little impact on the stock prices.
Not sure I follow. BK has a big impact on stock price.
A long time back, Chrysler was on the verge of bankruptcy and the stock was at pitiful levels. I bought a few hundred shares and watched the value of those shares triple or more when they bounced back.
Later, Pan Am was taking a similar beating. I bought a bunch of shares at $5, then more at $3. Turned around and it was down to $1 and change and hardly worth selling - who knows, it might come back. I held on as it went to zero. Lesson learned.
Point is, be careful out there with the falling knives. Every case is different.
Very good points. Part of why SPX/SPY are on there is that they're overall index funds so unless the entire stock market goes to 0, there should be some gains.
Once the hysteria levels off things should get better. I really wonder how much off the sell off is people maybe close to or in retirement (big population in the us) are dumping equities for more stable assets. Once the market stabilizes, everyone will jump in. Part of me thinks this will be like the early 2000’s and the tech bubble price rise.
or folks like Buffett with a huge cash position will start buying companies for under their intrinsic values and either breaking them up or restructuring them.
It will essentially have the same effect as share repurchasing. Helps, but doesn’t influence price or sentiment in any big way in the near term.
By the time you see the airlines recover, we will be well past the bottom. Aviation is usually the first to suffer and last to recover.
How many people that graduate highschool actually live to retirement age?
How many people that retire die shortly after?
How many people actually live to ripe age of 80+?
As soon as the reports of the "Wuhan" virus started appearing. The press reaction was over the top, so I took a gamble and it paid off.
In the interests of full disclosure. I have been burned a couple of times doing this.
It's been ages, and I may be misremembering, but at the Police Academy we had a psychologist come in and tell us the average life span of a police officer upon retirement. I think it was something like 3 1/2 years. It was asserted that was because officers tend to think their profession is more than just a job - it's part of their identity and largely determines their self worth.
The takeaway was to nurture hobbies that would give your life meaning after retirement. I certainly did that!
Yep. Very common among driven folks (and pilots tends towards goal-oriented) Make sure you have a reason to get up and participate in life in retirement!