Please! Make it stop! (Stock market crash)

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by JOhnH, Mar 16, 2020.

  1. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    On a similar note, all the paper money I have lost recently is the same paper money I made by staying fully invested (long) when all the pundits and talking heads were yelling “sell, sell,sell short, the recession is coming, the recession is coming”.
     
  2. Everskyward

    Everskyward Administrator Management Council Member

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    I knew pilots like that. On the other hand, I "retired" voluntarily and don't look back with longing. Weirdly, the fact that I was a pilot is the thing most people remember about me, but I never defined myself in that way.
     
  3. Shepherd

    Shepherd En-Route

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    One of the closely guarded secrets at IBM was that IBM retires don't last more than 2 years after retirement.
    I'm in the "old" plan now for 10 years, and MY plan is to be the last man collecting 200 years from now.
     
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  4. Bell206

    Bell206 En-Route

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    The key point pounded into my head by others before I retired was "you need to retire to something not from something." And after six years I can see the difference in that mind set.
     
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  5. midwestpa24

    midwestpa24 Pattern Altitude

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    That is true for everyone. A job gives you a reason to get up in the morning. It gives you a sense of purpose and belonging. If your retirement plan is to do nothing and stick around the house, you are probably in for a short retirement.
     
  6. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    And here I am waiting to see if the market tanks another 20%. I ran the numbers, and depending on assumptions, it becomes an advantage to convert my traditional IRA to a Roth IRA.

    Tim
     
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  7. Matthew

    Matthew Touchdown! Greaser!

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    A local retirement planner says he always has to have “the talk” with men that are planning to retire. He said women handle it differently for several reasons but men need something to retire to.
     
  8. 3393RP

    3393RP En-Route

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    Thanks for the tip. I'll read it tonight. I'm one of those Luddites that still receive the paper version. There's something satisfying about sitting down and perusing the pages of a newspaper in a leisurely fashion.

    I started reading the newspaper when I was seven, and still remember seeing the headline that year of the Albuquerque Journal on January 25, 1965. It proclaimed "WORLD MOURNS CHURCHILL" in huge block print.
     
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  9. TCABM

    TCABM Cleared for Takeoff

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    I’ll see if it’s in the paper copy today.

    ETA: front page at the fold...Extreme Volatility Isn’t Due Just to the Pandemic.
     
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  10. wsuffa

    wsuffa Touchdown! Greaser!

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    In gambling, that might be called "doubling down".....
     
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  11. MBDiagMan

    MBDiagMan En-Route

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    When I retired I went 80% in bonds and have a good bit of after tax dollars that I don’t consider as part of my portfolio in various savings accounts. I have a few good pensions coming in like clockwork, but what I ensured before retirement was being debt free. Retiring with debt and a portfolio of stocks is not a good plan IMHO. For the young, the stock market is great, but not so much for those nearing or in retirement. Again, IMHO.
     
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  12. Chip Sylverne

    Chip Sylverne En-Route

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    Fear is the poison of our lives.
    You must be in the front row.
     
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  13. WannFly

    WannFly En-Route

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    Well the good news is if this falls like it’s falling, in another month or so we don’t have worry about DJIA falling anymore ...
     
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  14. topgun260

    topgun260 Pre-takeoff checklist

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    When this all started the DOW was almost 30,000. The DOW hit 18,917 earlier today.
     
  15. bluesideup

    bluesideup Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Stock Market has become a Computer game, there are very few companies that have the Real value that the market shows, that notion has been lost a while ago. There is no reason why Go, Am, Fb should be valued as they are. It would be interesting to have someone look into how, or if, the SM is being manipulated.
    My suggestion would be to go back to people intervention and manual procedure as we did many years ago, and have people, not computers, analyze the real, not perceived, value of a co. and decide on that before they make a change.
    It's a Game as it is now, and someone is making money would be interesting to find out who?
     
  16. WannFly

    WannFly En-Route

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    people who shorts the stocks

    its a gem of a time to buy these blue chip companies ... if you have money lying around that is
     
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  17. WannFly

    WannFly En-Route

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    The New York Stock Exchange will move to fully electronic trading on Monday and trading as well as regulatory oversight of all NYSE-listed securities “will continue without interruption,” according to a statement.
     
  18. Sam D

    Sam D Cleared for Takeoff

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    Then what's this guy gonna do?

    [​IMG]
     
  19. wilkersk

    wilkersk Pattern Altitude

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    If its a game, theres a fairly large percentage of Americans playing it then. If you have a 401k, 403b, IRA, and so on, they are probably largely invested in stocks, ETFs or stock funds. And, if you put it in market index ETFs or Index funds, chances are you done quite well over the last 9 years. Its no game. Thinking so is a sure way to guarantee you'll never be able to afford to retire.

    ----This too shall pass. If it don't, the balance on your retirement account will be the least of your worries!
     
  20. airdale

    airdale Pattern Altitude

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    Wow! I'm sorry to hear about your stock market. What planet do you live on?
     
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  21. Half Fast

    Half Fast En-Route

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  22. Everskyward

    Everskyward Administrator Management Council Member

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  23. WannFly

    WannFly En-Route

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    NYSE floor is already closed from monday before this mandate was announced after 2 traders were allegedly infected with COVID-19. computer trading all the way from Monday
     
  24. Half Fast

    Half Fast En-Route

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    Makes sense. Of course, next thing will be a computer virus....
     
  25. BrianNC

    BrianNC En-Route

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    There's not as many on the floor now anyway I don't believe. Well, at least in the futures pits in Chicago. I think most is done electronically already. Seems like it wouldn't be a problem.
     
  26. Velocity173

    Velocity173 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Well, I’ve set up an Ameritrade account. Now I wait for the bottom. 18,000 DJI?
     
  27. Gary

    Gary En-Route

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    Maybe, might start dipping in a small amount at that level - that being said, I suspect the markets will be a mess for at least a few months. We still have not seen large (+millions) numbers of people sick and unable to work. If that happens then it gets dicy, so far it is as though everyone took a week vacation. If the utilities stay on and the populace is fed, we might weather this without a catastrophe.
     
  28. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Then we will really be plucked.
     
  29. topgun260

    topgun260 Pre-takeoff checklist

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    SPY broke key support. It also made a new low after the market closed today $226.37. I wouldn't hold my breath that this is the bottom but you never know.
     
  30. Everskyward

    Everskyward Administrator Management Council Member

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    I don't think the bottom will be a certain DJIA number. Guessing it will be when it seems things are under control. So that won't be for a while, anyway.
     
  31. jspilot

    jspilot Cleared for Takeoff

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    Lots of people in this thread saying stocks are cheap are just blindly assuming the economy will go back to what it was pre crisis. That’s a gigantic leap when it’s possible several millions of people will be unemployed and the last time I checked unemployed workers don’t go on vacation, spend money, live the life they were living when they had jobs.

    Plus, there is no actual way to value stocks right now. Just because the stock price has come down does not mean you are getting a “bargain.” These companies have literally no to very little earnings right now( the ones that have been destroyed.). You are actually paying way more for the stock today then you did 2 weeks ago( think P/E ratio) and you have way less information to go on. Not for nothing but good luck if that’s your investment strategy. You have to have a sense of how the company is prepared to survive the next few months before you can actually make any real decision. Useful stock investing advice comes from the saying that Jim Cramer uses often- “we don’t care where a stock has come from, we care where it is going.”

    My best two holdings have rock solid balance sheets, loads of cash and are essential to the American economy. They both have held up exceptionally well. One thing this crash has done successfully is it has temporarily rebalanced the market— meaning the actual worth of certain industries has become more defined. The companies who did not plan for a rainy day have been obliterated and rightfully so. Those who actually had cash to weather the storm were not.

    It’s funny how in good times no one thinks of the bad times. I sure do hope that’s something that changes after all of this.

    I’m waiting to hear the jobless number on Thursday. That will give us a sense of how many are out of work. Interestingly, that number will give us huge insight into just how bad the economy is hit because I would excpect most companies that are going to fire people have done it already and we won’t see huge waves being fired after this initial spree. Because of the nature of this crisis if you were going to fire someone you’d probably do it sooner rather than later as the indefinite timeline for recovery makes it more likely to get rid of people early on. Once we know this number we can all at least have 1 piece of information to go on when making investments.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
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  32. jspilot

    jspilot Cleared for Takeoff

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    Except those funds mean you buy the bad with the good and limit your upside. ETF’s and index funds are the death of the stock market— that’s why you’ve watched the market crater. No one bothers to read how these things actually work. They have to maintain certain levels of risk and balance within the fund. Therefore they are forced to liquidate positions that are doing well to prop up those that are doing poorly. That means perfectly well running companies whose stock deserves to be high gets trampled because the fund has to sell those just to carry its losses.

    To each his own though- if you feel safer with this type of set up— ok.
     
  33. Sam D

    Sam D Cleared for Takeoff

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    Regarding jobless numbers, I expect the number to be very large but also expect it to grow substantially over time for a couple of reasons: 1) companies don’t know how long this is going to go on and have delayed taking action. If you read the fine print of many of the “we’re paying all our employees” press releases, it is only for the next 2-3 weeks, and 2) businesses who employ hourly employees are basically just not giving them hours at this time.
     
  34. airdale

    airdale Pattern Altitude

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    There is so much wrong with this that it is just not worthwhile to pick it apart. Folks, remember that not everything you read on the internet is accurate.
     
  35. azblackbird

    azblackbird Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Those numbers are likely not going to be released. Don’t want to further unsue the panic.
     
  36. jspilot

    jspilot Cleared for Takeoff

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    I’m curious what you think is inaccurate. For example, is it not true that these funds have bundles of stocks that are based on investments that are determined by performance based measures? Don’t these index funds have extremely large positions in some stocks but also smaller positions in many stocks? Is it not true that these ETF’s are attempting to meet returns for their investors and therefore will rebalance assets based on those metrics? Is it not true that these funds are constantly rebalancing allocations of funds? Is it not true that even if you like the funds returns you may actually be buying a group of stocks that you do buy lower performing stocks than higher performing stocks?

    If you claim to be such an expert please share your knowledge with us. Or else please stop taking shots at people who actually know things and share them.

    Because I like to share information with people— take a look here at the SPY’s ETF holdings( link below). As I correctly said, if you bought this ETF you are actually buying over 15 different holdings each with different allocations. These allocations( not the stocks in the fund) change all the time and you as the fund holder have 0 say in that. Again, if this is your thing— cool.

    https://etfdb.com/etf/SPY/#holdings
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
  37. Chip Sylverne

    Chip Sylverne En-Route

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    Fear is the poison of our lives.
    Oh, they'll be released. If they aren't it'll just cause more panic.

    BoA and Goldman are estimating 2 million. They highest reached in 2008 was 700,000.
     
  38. jspilot

    jspilot Cleared for Takeoff

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    Yeah I agree- pretty much looking for a minimum of 2 million people. I expect that number will grow but pretty slowly after this claim. In a month we can’t really know what the unemployment will look like. Might be far fewer or way more. It’s really hard to tell.
     
  39. jonvcaples

    jonvcaples Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Diversify! My wife was a business reporter for many years and wisely has our retirement funds nicely diversified. Have we been hurt by all this, yes but not nearly as badly as those 100% invested in the market.

    Our plan is to ride it out avoid the double soaking those who jump out now will take once things improve.

    Good luck!!
     
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  40. airdale

    airdale Pattern Altitude

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    (To be clear here, we are talking about index funds and ETFs, most of which are index funds.)
    No. An index fund's holdings are based on an "index" like the S&P 500 (example: SPY) or on holding the total US market (Example: VTSMX), 3600 stocks. No index fund uses "performance based measures." That is the complete opposite of what they do. Funds that chase performance are called "actively managed funds" or, commonly, as "stock pickers.
    Yes. Fund holdings are based on a stock's market capitalization; the number of shares outstanding times the market price. Stocks with a big price and a big float are held in larger quantities. This is in fact one of the criticisms of straight S&P 500 funds; there are a few large companies that dominate.
    Nope. All shares in the underlying index are are bought and sold only as as investors buy or sell the funds. If you want the details for ETFs, google "ETF authorized participant." For conventional mutual funds, the fund manager does the buying and selling.
    Nope. Actually they do very little trading. That is a big cost advantage and one of the reasons they routinely beat the stock pickers' performance. There is occasionally trading if, for example, S&P drops a stock from the 500 and substitutes anther one. Then the fund manager must sell the dear departed and buy the new kid. But that is infrequent.
    You always get exactly what is included in the fund's index, which is described in the fund's prospectus.
    Happy to. I teach an Adult-Ed investing course, actually. Six hours just to cover the very basic stuff.
    Actually you are not correct. The page you read lists only SPY's top 15 holdings. That's why the table is titled: "Top 15 Holdings." You really need to learn to read more carefully. SPY actually holds every stock in the S&P 500 on a cap weighted basis.
    Allocations change only as the stock prices change and drive the cap weighting. Holdings change only if the index creator changes his list. There is a small number of funds that are not cap weighted; allocations there are a little more complicated but you would just be confused by trying to understand them since you don't understand the basics of index funds.

    Sheese! Where did you get these goofy ideas, anyway?
     
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