Please! Make it stop! (Stock market crash)

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by JOhnH, Mar 16, 2020.

  1. jonvcaples

    jonvcaples Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Sasquatch
    I am all for helping those who need help, I am totally against helping those who make more than $500K a year and given current events over last several years worry most relief will go to those who need it the least.
     
    Chip Sylverne likes this.
  2. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    I read it and recommend it as well.

    I’ve arrived at a modified “Random Walk/Efficient Market” philosophy. Yes, discounting inside information, every other investor knows what you do, and that is efficiently priced into the price of any stock or commodity. As such, any given stock at any given time is fairly priced and equally likely to go up or down. If not randomly, essentially unpredictability.

    But...

    I do think “intuition” can give one a leg up. For instance, subscribing to Netflix very early on and having a hunch that even though the stock seemed “overpriced” at the time*, that the business had lots of potential to grow. Similar hunches could be had with Microsoft, Apple, eBay, Facebook, Amazon and Google, leading to huge gains if one followed those hunches. Others with the same information may not have the insight you do. Or so it seems to me.


    *I’ve come to feel “over-“ or “under-priced” are meaningless except in retrospect, given the Efficient Market Hypothesis. And that technical analysis is hogwash.
     
  3. murphey

    murphey Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    NASDAQ has always been electronic.
     
  4. jspilot

    jspilot Cleared for Takeoff

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    I think you are missing a key point here. If those employees living paycheck to paycheck that rely on the landlord for employment also have no bills than the entire system stands up pretty well. The circle of expenses vs income stablizes quicker if you limit expenses.
     
  5. Half Fast

    Half Fast En-Route

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    No it doesn't, because no one will have "no bills" whatsoever.

    What would motivate a farmer to produce more food than enough for his own family if he can't get paid and if he doesn't have to worry about paying his mortgage or his power bill?
     
  6. jspilot

    jspilot Cleared for Takeoff

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    We are talking about getting people money in a way that makes sense. You can give people 1,000 dollars each but that’s not enough and I’ve been watching the debates on this relief package on and off all day. The Republicans are saying exactly what I am. They want the money to go to people but not just 1,000 dollars and that’s it. It won’t go far enough and it’s not an effective way to get the economy going. If the money is meant to keep people afloat in the short term I think I’d be ok with that but we ought to be considering how to lower the strain of bills on people right now. That’s my point.
     
  7. simtech

    simtech En-Route

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    I got in at the split and paid just under $80 a share, my only regret was I didn't buy waaay more. At the current price I still couldn't make myself jump in for more.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2020
  8. airdale

    airdale Pattern Altitude

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    Here is a pretty good video of Fama and Thaler discussing the EMH. Both agree that your (and my) going-in assumption should be the EMH, but the discussion of behavioral finance/emotional price distortions is very good. https://famafrench.dimensional.com/famafrench/videos/are-markets-efficient.aspx

    (And of course, behavioral finance wins when we consider the current market situation.)

    We'll differ on that one. It is true, though, that we are physiologically wired remember our winners and forget our losers, so when you win on a "hunch" it sticks. Try Jason Zweig's "Your Money & Your Brain"

    Of course. It's astrology for investors. We are pattern-seeking animals. It is a huge survival trait; there simply is not time to analyze every situation ab initio. But this trait causes us to see patterns in randomness where there actually are none. Taleb again ...
     
  9. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Not as much as you think.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/fed...-adults-cant-cover-400-emergency-expense.html
    Slide the bar to 100K.
    http://graphics.wsj.com/what-percent/

    You will find that roughly 8% of the population makes more than 100K.

    Americans suck at saving.

    Tim
     
  10. topgun260

    topgun260 Pre-takeoff checklist

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  11. jspilot

    jspilot Cleared for Takeoff

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    I totally understand your point about Americans being awful at saving and managing debt. I teach high school economics and I have a multi week unit on this. My issue was not with the premise of your comment but the sweeping nature of it. You can’t make an arguement that the guy making 95,000 needs as much money as the person making 30,000 especially if the premise of this money is basically a bridge loan.
     
  12. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    All of you stock holders can breath more easily today.

    I only had enough cash to last me about 2 or 3 months and I figured that in 3 months from now the market MAY be in even worse shape than it is now. So I sold enough mutual funds yesterday to make my cash last about a year. You can be sure those stocks, and the market in general will go up today. Assuming I sold enough.
     
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  13. Chip Sylverne

    Chip Sylverne En-Route

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    Fear is the poison of our lives.
    It's called the concept of "marginal utility". Very interesting story behind it's historical foundations, as I`m sure you know.
     
  14. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    Ford has taken a huge hit, down to about $4/share.

    We own some, mainly for the dividend, which previously has been hovering around 5%. At $4, it works out to a 13.43% return. Great return, but of course the big question is will they have to cut their dividend going forward. For me, is this a Chrysler or a PanAm?
     
  15. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    Actually, I can make the argument that the guy making 95K needs the cash more. However, fundamentally, I believe you are correct. The less you make, the smaller the margin you work under and the closer you are to a financial cliff from which it is harder to recover.

    Tim
     
  16. Jim K

    Jim K Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Im real close to pulling about 30k out of my working capital and dumping it in the market. I think the daily death toll will peak early next week and people will be shocked that it's no where near the millions predicted. By late April/may most will be back to work.

    Of course ,I bought Boeing about a month after the second crash, thinking the max would be back flying shortly, so my prognostication is worth exactly what you paid for it.
     
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  17. rpadula

    rpadula En-Route

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    Just in time for a big up open! :eek:

    Not trying to rub it in, but it does remind me of some research I saw. People often talk about the "10 best days" of market returns, and suggesting if you could just avoid the "10 worst days" you'd make so much more money. Problem is, the best return days often come very close in time to the very worst days. So, who has the nads to buy on a worst day hoping to catch a best day? Tough to do.
     
  18. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Yep. Just as I predicted and promised. I sell and the DOW pops 1,500 pts.

    But that's ok. I have enough left that is doing very well today. But I still suspect it will get worse before it gets better. The ONLY things I don't know are how much worse, how much better and when. But other than that I have this whole thing figured out.

    I still think that once the hoarders and pessimists figure out how much they over-reacted, the market is going to go up like a rocket. It will go up much more and much sooner than the actual recovery because the market is based mostly on anticipation and emotion. That is why it fell so much, and that is why it will go up so much. If I could just get the damn timing right.
     
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  19. Everskyward

    Everskyward Administrator Management Council Member

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    Thanks, @JOhnH! :p
     
  20. Gary

    Gary En-Route

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    On behalf of all us folks, we appreciate your effort!;)

    Would you mind letting us all know when that time arrives?
     
  21. airdale

    airdale Pattern Altitude

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  22. Bill Jennings

    Bill Jennings Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Sell more!!!

    No, sell it ALL!!!

    Do it!

    Dooo Eeeeet!!!
     
  23. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    I have often thought of writing a news letter to tell people when I buy or sell. I would call it "The Contrarian", but I think that name is already taken.

    But in all humbleness, I can't take all the credit. I know there are a lot of you out there that have the same super-ability to alter the course of the market just by buying or selling.
     
  24. MooneyDriver78

    MooneyDriver78 En-Route

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    Thanks, can you please us more warning, I would have bought in on Monday if I knew?!
     
  25. Velocity173

    Velocity173 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Well, I guess I should’ve bought BA a week ago at $95 a share. :(
     
  26. TCABM

    TCABM Cleared for Takeoff

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    I was thing the same. Could’ve almost doubled if timing the market.

    I’m not sure it’s going to stay at ~$165; with such reduced demand, there’s no need for the airlines to get Max deliveries back on track for the time being.

    What the current event does to business travel is yet to be seen.
     
  27. Velocity173

    Velocity173 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Yeah, I was so close at buying around $100 but everyone was saying it hadn’t bottomed out yet. Then, when it shot up, everyone was saying it’s just a bump on the way down. Could've almost doubled my account in a weeks time.:mad:

    I’m not sure it’s gonna stay at $165 either. Long term they might be a $300 a share company but I think we’re looking at months before we see any rise in share price. Just too volatile right now for me to get in so I think I’ll play a wait and see. If it does continue the climb, good for them.
     
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  28. bflynn

    bflynn Final Approach

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    I’ve got 100k tied up in a bank clearance issue and I won’t get it until Tuesday or Wed. I was wanting to buy Boeing at 105. I would have missed the bottom, but I was close enough.

    I could spit right now. I have been on top of Boeing, running financials and I was so sure that was the bottom and I got caught in a transfer.