Please! Make it stop! (Stock market crash)



No capital gains tax; all is tax sheltered in a 401k. All I did was slide investments over to a stable value fund, then gradually move back as things improved; first into some bond funds, then back into equity funds and company stock. All inside the 401k.
 
Half Fast said:
No capital gains tax; all is tax sheltered in a 401k.
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Got it.

Part of the reason I tend to just hold on through hell or high water is not wanting to pay capital gains tax on sales, which can also move us into a higher tax bracket and potentially cause us to lose out on possible health insurance subsidies.

Plus, historically, "buy and hold" has outperformed trying to "time the market" - not to say some don't on occasion get the timing right.
 
FastEddieB said:
Got it.

Part of the reason I tend to just hold on through hell or high water is not wanting to pay capital gains tax on sales, which can also move us into a higher tax bracket and potentially cause us to lose out on possible health insurance subsidies.

Plus, historically, "buy and hold" has outperformed trying to "time the market" - not to say some don't on occasion get the timing right.
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Yep. 401k plans have some sweet advantages. It costs nothing in taxes and next to nothing to reallocate across the funds. Our plan has a pretty good variety of funds, as well as a brokerage account, so I've never felt the need to work outside the plan.

I never try to "time" the market; that's a real crap shoot. But sometimes when a global crisis is beginning it's pretty obvious that an investment crater is looming ahead. If you don't take the big hit in the first place, your timing doesn't have to be too accurate for getting back in a month or two later.
 
I'm trying to figure out how long this sugar high will last. For some reason I keep thinking "November" is the answer :D
 
I would be a little concerned about the commercial real estate market. I think a lot of companies have found out that their employees work from home just fine, and there is no need for them to continue leasing 10k sq ft of office space any more.
 
I have a supply of cash that I have sitting in an S&P 500 index fund. The idea was that I had too much cash outside of my retirement funds sitting In CDs and savings accounts. In late March I dumped all my free cash in. Monday I liquidated it all. To me, the market is irrationally high right now. We might have had one good jobs report but we're not out of this yet.
 
Brad Z said:
I have a supply of cash that I have sitting in an S&P 500 index fund. The idea was that I had too much cash outside of my retirement funds sitting In CDs and savings accounts. In late March I dumped all my free cash in. Monday I liquidated it all. To me, the market is irrationally high right now. We might have had one good jobs report but we're not out of this yet.
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My thinking mirrors yours. If the market is being propped up, it's to maintain a status quo, not push things higher. That means we're at some sort of ceiling.

I tend to be very bearish though, and was sat in bonds for the 5 years or so preceding this march run-up (where I went 50% into equities and caught a nice ride), so I'm usually a chicken-little investor, and I am second-guessing my fearfulness.

But I keep looking for that exit door to return to my comfy sideline bench. I just miss a lot of gains that way.
 
Irrational exuberance.....was once uttered....in reference to somewhat different circumstances, but seeming to apply of late.
 
schmookeeg said:
My thinking mirrors yours. If the market is being propped up, it's to maintain a status quo, not push things higher. That means we're at some sort of ceiling.

I tend to be very bearish though, and was sat in bonds for the 5 years or so preceding this march run-up (where I went 50% into equities and caught a nice ride), so I'm usually a chicken-little investor, and I am second-guessing my fearfulness.

But I keep looking for that exit door to return to my comfy sideline bench. I just miss a lot of gains that way.
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I have the same concerns, but I can't help but wonder if a lot of people are looking at the money the government is printing, and trying to find something that will ride the inflation wave instead of getting buried by it. Cash isn't safe either. I could see an arguement for gold, but it's already run up a bunch, too. Im not a believer in market timing (other than buying when they're on sale...) so im going to let it ride.
 
Jim K said:
I have the same concerns, but I can't help but wonder if a lot of people are looking at the money the government is printing, and trying to find something that will ride the inflation wave instead of getting buried by it. Cash isn't safe either. I could see an arguement for gold, but it's already run up a bunch, too. Im not a believer in market timing (other than buying when they're on sale...) so im going to let it ride.
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Yeah. I hate adopting the "I can't think of anything better to do" strategy, but that's where I'm sat, somewhat disgruntled. :D
 
Being an advocate of The Efficient Market Hypothesis, I’ll hold the market is exactly where it should be right now, whether “rational”, or not. I think it’s equally likely that we see Dow 30,000 as Dow 24,000.

The market can certainly seem irrational, but I think part of it is money has to be put somewhere. And, historically the stock market has been a great place to have your money for the long haul. Park it in cash, and you have a negative return after inflation. Not much better in bonds right now. Metals are up a bit, but again have zero yield as you hold them. So, for stocks it just boils down to supply vs demand, and the demand supports current levels.
 
Jim K said:
I have the same concerns, but I can't help but wonder if a lot of people are looking at the money the government is printing, and trying to find something that will ride the inflation wave instead of getting buried by it. Cash isn't safe either. I could see an arguement for gold, but it's already run up a bunch, too. Im not a believer in market timing (other than buying when they're on sale...) so im going to let it ride.
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I agree. For all I know I may have cashed out into a billion Zimbabwean dollars,lol.

for some time I'd been looking at shifting to real estate, but felt like real estate prices have been climbing up for a decade for few deals in sight. My thought was to build up a reserve to do some cash deals when distressed property starts showing up again.
 
FastEddieB said:
Being an advocate of The Efficient Market Hypothesis, I’ll hold the market is exactly where it should be right now, whether “rational”, or not. I think it’s equally likely that we see Dow 30,000 as Dow 24,000.

The market can certainly seem irrational, ...
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(Hoping this doesn't fall under religious discussion and get me banned......)

I mostly agree, but with a caveat or two. I believe that the market is very efficient on information but it is less so on emotion, and both are factors in what the market does. Because of that I think the market behaves rationally over extended periods, months and years, but in shorter periods it is irrational. The average performance trend over those longer periods reflects the market's efficient use of information, but day to day or week to week it shows swings that come from fears or hopeful speculations. That amounts to emotional noise riding on the informational signal.

The trick is being able to separate the two and reconcile them with one's personal investment timeline and event horizon. The wild swings may just be noise on the signal, but noise at the wrong time can still be devastating.
 
Brad Z said:
I agree. For all I know I may have cashed out into a billion Zimbabwean dollars,lol.

for some time I'd been looking at shifting to real estate, but felt like real estate prices have been climbing up for a decade for few deals in sight. My thought was to build up a reserve to do some cash deals when distressed property starts showing up again.
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I'm convinced that the best way to invest in real estate is to inherit it. Are you related to any landowners that you could have bumped off?
 
Start buying up property in suburban Minneapolis metro area. The resale value is climbing like SpaceX right now. It’s going to be so reminiscent to Detroit in the late 60’s and early 70’s. My grandparents definitely didn’t make much equity off their digs on Outer Drive when they fled in ‘69.
 
Invest in commercial real estate.
Looks like there will be a building boom in some cities.
 
Sell in May (and early June) and go away.
 
Anyone else think Ray Dalio (principles.com) is worth listening to? I’m not happy with having nothing but US dollars in my portfolio while the Fed is experimenting with it.
 
562-rustlemyjimmies1.jpg
 
Finally, I can now stop feeling like an idiot for having converted almost my entire portfolio to cash last week.
 
deonb said:
Finally, I can now stop feeling like an idiot for having converted almost my entire portfolio to cash last week.
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The stock market is like Seattle weather, the only thing you can plan on is that if you bring the umbrella, the sun will shine. And, if you don't, you'll get rained on for sure.

I've been in the market since 1992. Overall, I think I'm ahead.
 
No rationale for it. How does sentiment change so dramatically over night?
 
It’s why I play the long game. I’d make myself crazy if I thought about the short term gains and losses!
 
Ryanb said:
No rationale for it. How does sentiment change so dramatically over night?
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Someone at the Fed farted and the market took a dump!

These guys open their mouths and the market reacts.
 
Brad Z said:
I have a supply of cash that I have sitting in an S&P 500 index fund. The idea was that I had too much cash outside of my retirement funds sitting In CDs and savings accounts. In late March I dumped all my free cash in. Monday I liquidated it all. To me, the market is irrationally high right now. We might have had one good jobs report but we're not out of this yet.
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Wait...why can't I like my own post?
 
Yesterday we hit a record on our investments with UBS. Today? Not so much. You win some, you lose some. Timing the market doesn't work.
 
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