Pilot shortage once again....

Landshark said:
Is there really a shortage this time or going to be one, one that actually effects first year pay favorably?
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The regionals are hiring like crazy and we've seen first year pay increases like never before. Finding CFIs is harder than any time most can remember. So, yes, there's a shortage. What it will be like in three years is anyone's guess, as Fearless aptly pointed out.
 
I have a family member, military, couple thousand hours multi-engine turbine time, and not long from getting out. Not considering flying for pay. . .wife, kids, better options.
 
I've been strongly considering moving over to 121 to take advantage of this hiring cycle so that when the furloughs do start, I'd hopefully have enough seniority to survive it. I just can't seem to really make an educated decision right now.
 
Cpt_Kirk said:
I've been strongly considering moving over to 121 to take advantage of this hiring cycle so that when the furloughs do start, I'd hopefully have enough seniority to survive it. I just can't seem to really make an educated decision right now.
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There is no such thing as an "educated decision" in the 121 world. It's way too crazy for that! :)
 
LDJones said:
The regionals are hiring like crazy and we've seen first year pay increases like never before. Finding CFIs is harder than any time most can remember. So, yes, there's a shortage. What it will be like in three years is anyone's guess, as Fearless aptly pointed out.
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What the regionals are doing is offering bonuses to entice pilots to apply. They ARE NOT increasing the hourly pay, which if they did would be harder to rescind. With bonuses if they ever get enough pilots then they can eliminate the bonuses. Most if not all regionals are union so changing a the hourly is almost impossible to do if they went that way. Not so with bonuses.
 
mscard88 said:
What the regionals are doing is offering bonuses to entice pilots to apply. They ARE NOT increasing the hourly pay, which if they did would be harder to rescind.
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Some are and some aren't. It was one of the things that a friend who is flying with a regional cautioned me about.

Take PSA and Air Wisconsin, for example. A 1st year FO will come out with about the same pay at either, but the hourly rate is wildly different. PSA is paying a $15k signing bonus to achieve that. Air Wisconsin has no bonus. Yes, it is much easier in the labor world to rescind a bonus than cut hourly pay.
 
Plus a signing bonus is a one time event whereas hourly pay is ongoing and OT is based on it.
 
I view the pilot shortage as the cannery in the coal mine. Baby boomers have started to retire and that rate is going to accelerate over the next ten years. With the airlines forced retirement at 65, I have to believe this is a factor - along with the increased hours regs - and an early indication of the employee shortage coming in the not too distant future for other U.S. economic sectors. I realize that the regionals are the one's with the shortage, but I think that's due to the trickle down (up?) affect of these forced retirements. Wonder if the they will reevaluate the mandatory retirement age again? It always amazed me that the system was designed to get rid of the most experienced pilots when they are still ready, willing and able.
 
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I think the retirement age req is changing again? Or it just did...


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Barring a 911 style terror attack or a major recession the pilot/pay/people wiling to work for low pay/whatever shortage is only going to get worse over the next 5-10 years. I saw somewhere that more pilots are retiring in the next 5-10 years then there are pilots at the regionals currently. Raising the retirement age would kick the can down the road a bit but it probably isn't a long term fix.
 
Sundancer said:
I have a family member, military, couple thousand hours multi-engine turbine time, and not long from getting out. Not considering flying for pay. . .wife, kids, better options.
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A friend just left the AF as a 130 driver. FedEx picked him up and he LOVES it! Flies out of MEM on an Airbus. Been there a year and will be a captain very soon.
 
NJP_MAN said:
Spend a couple nights in London or Monaco and the luster of Dayton kinda fades away.
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Not everyone has a hard-on for flying a widebody 1/3rd of the way around the world. If I wanted to screw around with serious international flying at who knows what time of day, I'd just go fly freight and make more money to do it...
 
mscard88 said:
What the regionals are doing is offering bonuses to entice pilots to apply. They ARE NOT increasing the hourly pay, which if they did would be harder to rescind. With bonuses if they ever get enough pilots then they can eliminate the bonuses. Most if not all regionals are union so changing a the hourly is almost impossible to do if they went that way. Not so with bonuses.
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Wrong. SkyWest went from $24 to $30 per hour last July, then $30 to $36.50 in February of this year. The bonuses are on top of that for anyone with a CL-65 Type.
 
KSCessnaDriver said:
Not everyone has a hard-on for flying a widebody 1/3rd of the way around the world. If I wanted to screw around with serious international flying at who knows what time of day, I'd just go fly freight and make more money to do it...
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I agree with you. And the original post I was referring to was about how not everyone has a hard on for flying city pairs for an entire career. I only know a few people who would "go do X for more money" and give up QOL. If city pairs and entry level RJ pay make someone's QOL satisfactory then I salute them. We're all just saying what we want from the industry in this thread anyway.
 
NJP_MAN said:
I agree with you. And the original post I was referring to was about how not everyone has a hard on for flying city pairs for an entire career. I only know a few people who would "go do X for more money" and give up QOL. If city pairs and entry level RJ pay make someone's QOL satisfactory then I salute them. We're all just saying what we want from the industry in this thread anyway.
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Exactly. Even at the 200/900 operation I'm at, very rarely do I spend more than 2 nights a month in the same city (other than at home), and we only have hubs in 3 cities that we operate out of currently. And that's just what I do on the 200, the 900 cities are much more varied in terms of where they go.
 
KSCessnaDriver said:
Exactly. Even at the 200/900 operation I'm at, very rarely do I spend more than 2 nights a month in the same city (other than at home), and we only have hubs in 3 cities that we operate out of currently. And that's just what I do on the 200, the 900 cities are much more varied in terms of where they go.
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True. I'm always amazed at how random our pairings seem every month. More than twice at the same overnight in a month is rare.
 
Ryanb said:
As I mentioned in another thread along these lines, there are plenty of pilots out there, it's just a good amount had the door get closed on them when the 1500 hr ATP rule went into effect. The pool is far more limited then it was 5+ years ago. Before, 250+ hours would get you into the right seat of an RJ. Building time as a CFI wasn't as much of a need after graduating from a 4 year aviation college as it now. It's a good change, but it's also a curse. 80k of debt, to get 24k a year job.
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It's a curse if you're stupid enough to get 80k in debt trying to get there.
 
Art VanDelay said:
It's a curse if you're stupid enough to get 80k in debt trying to get there.
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Unfortunately that's the cost for a lot of aviation colleges. Yeah it sucks, but just about any 4 year degree at a high ranking school is upwards of 60-80k, unless you have scholarships.
 
Ryanb said:
Unfortunately that's the cost for a lot of aviation colleges. Yeah it sucks, but just about any 4 year degree at a high ranking school is upwards of 60-80k, unless you have scholarships.
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No one is forcing anyone to go to Riddle, UND, etc. I went to a local state school for dirt cheap and flew on the side. I got all the same ratings as the kid from Riddle got for a fraction of the price. I came out of school with little debt and all my ratings.
 
NJP_MAN said:
I agree with you. And the original post I was referring to was about how not everyone has a hard on for flying city pairs for an entire career. I only know a few people who would "go do X for more money" and give up QOL. If city pairs and entry level RJ pay make someone's QOL satisfactory then I salute them. We're all just saying what we want from the industry in this thread anyway.
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When I mentioned "city pairs" I didn't imply that pilots flew only to two different cities. But how many cities are there in an airline's routes? And how much of the city do you get to see? I know that pilots who fly international have some long layovers where they might get to explore some. Looking back, I'll say that, for me, the part of my job I enjoyed was seeing different places, or getting to know passengers, and people at frequent destinations. It wasn't necessarily the experience of flying the airplane. But people are different. In the next part of my life I want to travel on my own terms. I don't care if I'm not the one flying the airplane.
 
Art VanDelay said:
And how long do you "think" they'll be working for low pay ?
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If they are dumb enough to go down the toilet bowl in the first place, probably quite some time.
 
LDJones said:
Wrong. SkyWest went from $24 to $30 per hour last July, then $30 to $36.50 in February of this year. The bonuses are on top of that for anyone with a CL-65 Type.
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You just agreed with what I wrote. SKYW is offering bonuses for a type to induce them to leave another regional for SKYW. Cool that SKYW upped the starting pay but the fact remains they are paying bonuses for new hires, which can be dropped by the airline at any time. Because SKYW is nonunion those pay rates can be rescinded too. Harder to do at union carriers whom are under a contract.
 
jordane93 said:
No one is forcing anyone to go to Riddle, UND, etc. I went to a local state school for dirt cheap and flew on the side. I got all the same ratings as the kid from Riddle got for a fraction of the price. I came out of school with little debt and all my ratings.
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That is a smart way to go, as long as you're willing to spend the extra time necessary to accumulate the additional 500 hours that route requires. If that takes an extra year or two, what's the long term value of 1-2 years seniority at a major? That's the economic computation that needs to be made.

In the end, success at the majors is as much luck of the draw as anything. Being in the right place at the right time. That's sometimes hard to plan.
 
mscard88 said:
You just agreed with what I wrote. SKYW is offering bonuses for a type to induce them to leave another regional for SKYW. Cool that SKYW upped the starting pay but the fact remains they are paying bonuses for new hires, which can be dropped by the airline at any time. Because SKYW is nonunion those pay rates can be rescinded too. Harder to do at union carriers whom are under a contract.
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No, the bonuses simply recognize the simple fact they need to spend less on training someone already typed. While the second statement is technically true, it has never happened in the history of SKW. How many union shops have given pay concessions?
 
LDJones said:
That is a smart way to go, as long as you're willing to spend the extra time necessary to accumulate the additional 500 hours that route requires. If that takes an extra year or two, what's the long term value of 1-2 years seniority at a major? That's the economic computation that needs to be made.

In the end, success at the majors is as much luck of the draw as anything. Being in the right place at the right time. That's sometimes hard to plan.
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Indeed. I had to think long and hard about my college decision. I have friends who went to aviation colleges who made it to an airline a few months ahead of me. I know some who are still instructing to get to their RATP. Totally agree that it's all a crap shoot. We are at the peak now. Let's see what happens in a few years.
 
James331 said:
If they are dumb enough to go down the toilet bowl in the first place, probably quite some time.
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Really ? You are aware it's not 1997 right ? Because if it were you'd be right. But it's not so you are quite wrong. You are aware that the regionals are currently the number one source for the major airlines ? How long do you think forward looking individuals stay at a regional ? Are you under the impression that they are just making starting pay the whole time they are with the regional ?
 
Everskyward said:
When I mentioned "city pairs" I didn't imply that pilots flew only to two different cities. But how many cities are there in an airline's routes? And how much of the city do you get to see? I know that pilots who fly international have some long layovers where they might get to explore some. Looking back, I'll say that, for me, the part of my job I enjoyed was seeing different places, or getting to know passengers, and people at frequent destinations. It wasn't necessarily the experience of flying the airplane. But people are different. In the next part of my life I want to travel on my own terms. I don't care if I'm not the one flying the airplane.
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I know what you mean. I fly so I can enjoy the destination. Flying 100-120 hrs/yr and getting to do awesome things while getting paid is what's makes it worth it for me. Staying the night in 3 different cities while only getting 12-20 hrs in the city doesn't sound fun. Some places I wouldn't even want to spend 12 hrs at though (insert middle America town here).
 
Point is if you're willing to take that much responsibility for that little money, that poor of a QOL, and have that little self respect, you're setting the bar low and it's going to take much more work to even get that bad raised one level.


THE ONLY reason the pay is going up is because these bottom feeders can't get those two front seats filled, if people refused to work in those conditions a long time ago, these changes would have occurred a long time ago.

Paying pilots more isn't going to break the bank of a 121, compared to all the other expenses of operating a airline, pilot pay is a very tiny fraction, however without pilots you ain't getting anything in the air.

Seems to me the only reason some of these guys get low pay, is because they'll accept it.
 
Ryanb said:
Unfortunately that's the cost for a lot of aviation colleges. Yeah it sucks, but just about any 4 year degree at a high ranking school is upwards of 60-80k, unless you have scholarships.
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And it's completely unnecessary to go that route. My degree is in mathematics and I just flew a trip with two business majors and one psychology major.

Get to your CFI certificate as cheaply as possible and the rest will flow into place.
 
LDJones said:
No, the bonuses simply recognize the simple fact they need to spend less on training someone already typed. While the second statement is technically true, it has never happened in the history of SKW. How many union shops have given pay concessions?
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C'mon man, it's a way to steal typed pilots from other airlines as new hires. Sure it may lower training costs but it's still a method to entice pilots to go there. Yes in bad times unions may have to give concessions. So then so would SKYW. If ExpressJet gave concessions do you think SKYW wouldn't force your airline to as well? You're not represented by a labor agreement and at the mercy of management so they could just inflict it on the employees.
 
mscard88 said:
C'mon man, it's a way to steal typed pilots from other airlines as new hires. Sure it may lower training costs but it's still a method to entice pilots to go there. Yes in bad times unions may have to give concessions. So then so would SKYW. If ExpressJet gave concessions do you think SKYW wouldn't force your airline to as well? You're not represented by a labor agreement and at the mercy of management so they could just inflict it on the employees.
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I don't think it's so much stealing as a recognition the CRJ has been around a long time and there are lots of people typed in it. I had a former Comair pilot and one from another long-gone regional in my class. As for SKW, our pilot group has had a pretty decent relationship with management. Management has in times past gone to extraordinary lengths to avoid furloughs, but none involved pay cuts that I am aware of. Freezing hiring and pay, yes...but better to keep current pay for awhile than being out of work completely.
 
James331 said:
Point is if you're willing to take that much responsibility for that little money, that poor of a QOL, and have that little self respect, you're setting the bar low and it's going to take much more work to even get that bad raised one level.


THE ONLY reason the pay is going up is because these bottom feeders can't get those two front seats filled, if people refused to work in those conditions a long time ago, these changes would have occurred a long time ago.

Paying pilots more isn't going to break the bank of a 121, compared to all the other expenses of operating a airline, pilot pay is a very tiny fraction, however without pilots you ain't getting anything in the air.

Seems to me the only reason some of these guys get low pay, is because they'll accept it.
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Poor quality of life? I don't think you know what you're talking about. How is 15 days off a month "poor quality of life". Sure, without pilots, planes don't get in the air. Guess what, without FA's, planes don't fly. Guess what, without ground crews, planes don't move. Guess what, without MX personnel, planes don't move.

To imply that pilots are the only people that would cause the airline to stop, proves to show you would do quite well in 121 (sarcasm).
 
James331 said:
Point is if you're willing to take that much responsibility for that little money, that poor of a QOL, and have that little self respect, you're setting the bar low and it's going to take much more work to even get that bad raised one level.


THE ONLY reason the pay is going up is because these bottom feeders can't get those two front seats filled, if people refused to work in those conditions a long time ago, these changes would have occurred a long time ago.

Paying pilots more isn't going to break the bank of a 121, compared to all the other expenses of operating a airline, pilot pay is a very tiny fraction, however without pilots you ain't getting anything in the air.

Seems to me the only reason some of these guys get low pay, is because they'll accept it.
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And over the last several recent years has the pay been going up or going down ? I started at a regional because the majority of my military time was in helos. At no time did I consider the work to be belittling or beneath my dignity nor did I feel I was "too cool" to do that type of flying.

I was at a regional for all of 3 years. Even the worst day at the regional was far better than working in a windowless cubicle somewhere with a 9 to 5 Mon - Fri grind. I saw a few outside type flying jobs that looked interesting but they all had pretty hard ceilings on their top pay as well.

But hey you can keep thinking about the way it used to be if you want but if you use those reasons you'll surely get left on the sidelines.
 
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