Pilot shortage once again....

Discussion in 'Flight Following' started by Unit74, Jul 3, 2016.

  1. Unit74

    Unit74 Final Approach

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2014
    Messages:
    6,632
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Unit74
    LDJones likes this.
  2. FlyingElvii

    FlyingElvii Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2016
    Messages:
    592
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    flyingElvii
    As I stated on another thread, nothing will change until the airlines grow some stones and start canceling hundreds of DC Area flights due to "Pilot Shortage". Until the DC staffers, (or more importantly, all of the SJW leeches that make their living off of Government money) start complaining about the canceled flights, will anything get done.
     
  3. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2014
    Messages:
    20,310
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    James331
    It's not a shortage of pilots, it's a shortage of folks with the required experience who will work in bad conditions and for bad pay.
     
    brian], Skates97, flhrci and 3 others like this.
  4. MikeELP

    MikeELP Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2006
    Messages:
    1,645
    Location:
    El Paso, TX; Santa Teresa, NM
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Mike Bruening
    Yep!!
     
    Pete Wegmann likes this.
  5. champ driver

    champ driver Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2014
    Messages:
    819
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Champ driver
    X2
     
  6. Morgan3820

    Morgan3820 En-Route

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2013
    Messages:
    2,727
    Location:
    New Bern, NC
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Reno
    Kind of like the nursing occupation. Crappy conditions, crappy pay. Now, good pay, still crappy conditions.
     
  7. RyanB

    RyanB Administrator Management Council Member PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2010
    Messages:
    13,033
    Location:
    Chattanooga, TN
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Ryan
    As I mentioned in another thread along these lines, there are plenty of pilots out there, it's just a good amount had the door get closed on them when the 1500 hr ATP rule went into effect. The pool is far more limited then it was 5+ years ago. Before, 250+ hours would get you into the right seat of an RJ. Building time as a CFI wasn't as much of a need after graduating from a 4 year aviation college as it now. It's a good change, but it's also a curse. 80k of debt, to get 24k a year job.
     
  8. whattauser

    whattauser Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Messages:
    147
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Whattauser
    If I wasn't already in this field, I'd not be pursuing it. I'd go with an engineering or professional medical discipline or just go into business.
     
  9. RyanB

    RyanB Administrator Management Council Member PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2010
    Messages:
    13,033
    Location:
    Chattanooga, TN
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Ryan
    I'm definitely not saying it's a bad field because it isn't. If it's what you want, you can make a living with it and it's worth it. There is money to be made within aviation, it just takes time to get there.
     
  10. KSCessnaDriver

    KSCessnaDriver Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2008
    Messages:
    2,185
    Location:
    C62
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    KSCessnaDriver
    Which is ironic, because the regionals that have started to raise their pay to a liveable somewhat fair wage have no problem getting people to show up. Imagine that
     
  11. RyanB

    RyanB Administrator Management Council Member PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2010
    Messages:
    13,033
    Location:
    Chattanooga, TN
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Ryan
    Exactly, Trans States and GO Jet offer pretty decent 1st year wages with 5k+ sign on bonuses and also say "No time sitting reserve as a new hire". It's only a matter of time before the rest have to offer this to match their competition. If one can fair living on low wages for a few years, upgrade time is pretty quick with some. My old flight instructor started with PSA back in 2014 and upgraded to captain around the first of this year. It's not as long of a road to the majors as it has been.
     
  12. KSCessnaDriver

    KSCessnaDriver Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2008
    Messages:
    2,185
    Location:
    C62
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    KSCessnaDriver
    TSA and (No)GoJet are nowhere near the top in terms of regional first year pay. They're closer to the bottom...

    But yes, they've all gone up, some significantly more that others
     
  13. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2014
    Messages:
    20,310
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    James331
    Living wage isn't good enough.

    I demand a wage that matches the level of responsibility I'm charged with, pay up, fly the plane yourself, or shut it down.
     
    RyanB likes this.
  14. SkyDog58

    SkyDog58 Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2015
    Messages:
    13,572
    Location:
    My own special place.
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Canis Non Grata
    Yes, one of the reasons for the looming pilot shortage is the 1500 hour rule but before blaming the FAA, you need to understand that it was mandated by Congress. The FAA had no choice but to comply. Even so,when military pilots can go 121 with 750 hours and graduates of an aviation program with a BS degree can do so with just 1000 hours; the 1500 hour floor is really less of a factor than many think it is.

    As a side note, I personally do not know if the ability or knowledge of a pilot with a BS degree is far superior to that of one without a BS degree but I really doubt it. I have no idea how that came about.

    A bigger issue is there are less new pilots entering the pool than ever before. Less pilots overall mean less hitting the magical number of 1500 or 1000 or 750. And when you consider many potential airline pilots (except for the prior military ones) build their hours instructing, well the problem is compounded. After all if there are less students to instruct then it becomes harder to build hours by instructing alone.

    To be honest, I like the idea of having a higher standard to become an airline pilot. 250 hours and just a CPL to fly a sophisticated jet aircraft carrying a bunch of people is far too low of an experience level in my opinion. I do think however that 1500 hours to be in the right seat might be too restrictive.

    One possible option that I like is lowering the minimum to 750 - 1000 hours but still requiring an ATP written and checkride for the right seat while leaving the 1500 hour ATP for the left seat.

    One thing for certain, this issue will not be resolved anytime soon as changing it at this point would require congress to do something.
     
  15. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2014
    Messages:
    20,310
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    James331

    I think they need to just have a ATP, as in full on ATP, no ATP lite, no "frozen" ATP like abroad, ATP means ATP.
     
  16. Tarheelpilot

    Tarheelpilot En-Route

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2010
    Messages:
    4,928
    Location:
    North Carolina once again.
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Tarheelpilot
    No one has really talked much about the pilots that have the minimums and are not willing to work at the airlines because of the pay. There are lots of people that could have a job in the regionals that are not willing to go. That has nothing to do with the 1500 hour requirement mandated by congress or any FAA regulatory impact. It's strictly a function of pay and career advancement.
     
    SkyDog58 likes this.
  17. SkyDog58

    SkyDog58 Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2015
    Messages:
    13,572
    Location:
    My own special place.
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Canis Non Grata
    That is absolutely true as well. If you are already making a decent living and happen to end up with the ratings and hours, that doesn't necessarily make you want to take a dent in QOL just to fly for the airlines. There are other ways to make a living both inside and outside of aviation that pay well and are rewarding.
     
    Zeldman likes this.
  18. jspilot

    jspilot Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2011
    Messages:
    1,350
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    jspilot
    Exactly right! If the starting salary for a regional jet pilot was 50,000 like many college educated professions are, you'd not only have no shortage, you'd have stiff competition. It truly is amazing that they can staff even 50% of regional flights when people are asked to spend 10,000's of thousands of dollars to get the ratings and time to even get to make 25,000 dollar starting pay.
     
  19. jordane93

    jordane93 Final Approach

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2013
    Messages:
    9,964
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Jordan
    First year pilots at my company make $50K. It's all about thinking long term. First year pay for most regionals suck. Once you get to second and third year pay it's fine.
     
  20. Everskyward

    Everskyward Experimenter

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2005
    Messages:
    33,133
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Everskyward
    Even without considering the pay, do that many people want to spend their careers flying back and forth between city pairs? I'll probably get flamed here because this is a pilot board but...
     
    Cpt_Kirk and Velocity173 like this.
  21. Zeldman

    Zeldman Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2014
    Messages:
    13,629
    Location:
    high desert NM
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Billy
    No shortage of pilots here, just a shortage of people that have or can quickly get an ATP. I have suddenly become a hot commodity.

    I started flying in my mid 30s, commercially in my later 30s so I had no desire to fly for a major or regional airline. Allergic to ties is one problem. So staying 135 kept me on the low end of the scale for a while. Not so anymore. Lots of opportunities for me now. With my other business investments, I don't need to fly but I do because I like it.
     
  22. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2014
    Messages:
    20,310
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    James331
    Exactly.

    Thing is long term you got to look at the company and how long till you make good money, the cut you'll take to switch seats and the likley hood of the company making bad business decisions which will hang you out to dry.

    If I went to the 121 world, it'd have to be a major legacy, even with the sign on and slightly improved pay, I wouldn't touch a regional with a 10' stick, it's great, they are feeling it, and the majors are feeling it too

    Let em suffer, better for us, out of their expenses pilot pay isn't really even anywhere near a large expense for them big picture, they got comfy knowing they could get guys to work for peanuts, well guess what, gravy train has left the station, things have improved, but they still got a long way to go and their well is already almost dry, not a single tear shall I shed.
     
    Zeldman and John Bussard like this.
  23. FlyingElvii

    FlyingElvii Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2016
    Messages:
    592
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    flyingElvii
    This a good point, actually.

    Some of the Fractionals (like NetJets) pay as much, or more than many of the regionals do, for a LOT less headaches. Corporate flying has really exploded since the late 90's, adding to the shortages, as well.
     
  24. John Bussard

    John Bussard Pre-Flight

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2016
    Messages:
    63
    Location:
    San Diego
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    John Bussard

    " I do think however that 1500 hours to be in the right seat might be too restrictive. " Definitely agree with that. Hours equals experience, which is a great instructor. But a 1500 hr ATP should be able to mentor a less experienced FO- Say 500 hours. That requirement proves the arbitrary (which is redundant when paired with "Congressionally mandated") nature of this discussion.
     
  25. stratobee

    stratobee Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2011
    Messages:
    1,112
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    stratobee
    Good riddance to the regionals who go bust having built their whole business model on getting pilots working for a fast food salary and having to pay for their own type ratings. Let them die and give way to the good airlines who treat people correct.
     
    James331 likes this.
  26. coloradobluesky

    coloradobluesky En-Route Gone West

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2014
    Messages:
    3,621
    Location:
    Colorado
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    coloradobluesky
    Most pilots agree there is a plateau at 500 hours. Then its a matter of overcoming complacency and not bothering to follow the rules. But 1500 hours is the law, so what can you do? Nice to hear there is a shortage, maybe that will bump the pay so pilots can pay off their loans.
     
    John Bussard likes this.
  27. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2014
    Messages:
    20,310
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    James331
    Too restrictive? This ain't a checkout on a PA28, I'd say 1500 is about right.
     
  28. LDJones

    LDJones Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2011
    Messages:
    10,996
    Location:
    Twin Cities, MN
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Jonesy
    Some corporate flying really sucks! Especially a closely held Corp where the jet is half owners toy, half corporate tool. I've seen this up close and personal.

    Fractional or a large Corp (think 3M) would be fine.
     
  29. John Bussard

    John Bussard Pre-Flight

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2016
    Messages:
    63
    Location:
    San Diego
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    John Bussard
    Yeah, that quote was from the above post. You're right it isn't a PA-28. But to restrict both crew positions removes a reasonable apprenticeship approach to building time. A good way for suitably prepared, lower time pilots to learn would be to spend quality hours in a similar environment to where they want to end up. By focusing on quantity we potentially sacrifice quality.
     
  30. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2014
    Messages:
    20,310
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    James331
    It's not a class room, it's a airliner with 100s of souls aboard, you need to be ready for the big leagues before you try to show up for the big game.

    I don't fly a airliner, our requirements are nearly double that of a ATP.

    For a high level pilot, 1500 ain't asking for much, and in my opinion most of that should be PIC single pilot.
     
  31. John Bussard

    John Bussard Pre-Flight

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2016
    Messages:
    63
    Location:
    San Diego
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    John Bussard
    Agreed. But regardless of crew position? PIC needs it, I think that's reasonable. But the right seat too?
     
  32. KSCessnaDriver

    KSCessnaDriver Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2008
    Messages:
    2,185
    Location:
    C62
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    KSCessnaDriver
    Because flying in the right seat of a 152 totally does that.... What do you propose people do to get to 1500 hours if you want them to have that much single pilot time.
     
  33. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2014
    Messages:
    20,310
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    James331
    Pipeline

    Charter

    Fly aboard

    DZ

    ETC ETC.

    It's being the first and last opinion on the cockpit, it's knowing the buck starts and stops with you
     
  34. MauleSkinner

    MauleSkinner Final Approach

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2005
    Messages:
    8,925
    Location:
    Wichita, KS
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    MauleSkinner
    The general assumption is they won't be right seat for their entire career.
     
  35. Mike5250

    Mike5250 Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2011
    Messages:
    886
    Location:
    Philadelphia,pa
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Mike5250

    Not sure there were any major accidents (121)before the 1500 rule where a 250-1499hr co-pilot pilot was the main cause. If anything, once you're trained for a type rating and flying with an experienced captain you become safer quicker.
     
    Somedudeintn and John Bussard like this.
  36. Landshark

    Landshark Pre-Flight

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2015
    Messages:
    81
    Location:
    Bay Area, Ca.
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    LongWayHome
    I am seriously asking this question because I have heard about the impending pilot shortage so many times. I have heard others talk about these shortages in the past. Some say it never came to fruition. Some say it is just counselor or recruiter talk to get you to commit to an aviation career or major. I am now skeptical every time I hear about it now and don't know what to believe. I am going for the airline career regardless because I don't want to do anything else so it will not make a difference to me or change my decision in the end. I just want to know what kind of setting I will be entering in 3 years when I have the 1500 hours.

    Is there really a shortage this time or going to be one, one that actually effects first year pay favorably? Was there ever a pilot shortage in the past and how did the industry (regarding wages) react that time?
     
  37. SkyDog58

    SkyDog58 Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2015
    Messages:
    13,572
    Location:
    My own special place.
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Canis Non Grata
    Hey, the pilots of the Colgan crash that pretty much precipitated the 1500 hour rule only had 3,379 hours and 2,244 hours. Oh, wait... never mind.
     
  38. Fearless Tower

    Fearless Tower Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2010
    Messages:
    15,464
    Location:
    Norfolk, VA
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Fearless Tower
    It is accurate to say that there really is a shortage of qualified applicants right now at the regional level. I'm at 1000 hrs now and have been told to go ahead and apply/interview now by a couple of regionals. They said they'd put me in a class as soon as I hit 1460.

    There is no shortage of applicants at the majors, although the majors are hiring right now and you are seeing fewer and fewer pilots at the majors sitting reserve. That said, unless you are coming from the military or previous 121, the majors won't talk to you.

    Hard to say what it will be like in a year or three. I don't know that you'll ever see a true shortage at the major level, but things could get interesting at the regionals.

    One thing to keep in mind: All it takes is for the economy to tank and then jets get parked in the desert and suddenly there is no shortage and it's back to furloughs.

    Right now, with the current state of the global economy, we could be looking at a true worldwide depression in the next couple years regardless of who gets elected in November.

    Personally, I think the economy will take care of any shortage problem.
     
  39. jordane93

    jordane93 Final Approach

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2013
    Messages:
    9,964
    Location:
    Long Island, NY
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Jordan
    The regionals are hiring like mad now. Who knows what it's going to be like in a few years?
     
  40. NJP_MAN

    NJP_MAN Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2013
    Messages:
    1,828
    Location:
    Kentucky
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Shawn
    This is probably one of my driving factors staying 91. I'll fly to London, Paris and New York. I'll let others fly Dayton, Detroit and Jacksonville
     
    Zeldman likes this.