NA - Gold nearing $3,000!

I thought 'Satoshi Nakamoto' was the creator of bitcoin, back in the 2007-2009 timeframe. His wallet still holds $135 billion or so in bitcoins.

He or she is only known by that pseudonym, and after writing in 2011 that he or she had 'moved on to other things', there has been no contact. No one knows if 'Satoshi' is alive or dead.
Lack of an identifiable creator.

No one personality or group casting a shadow over it which means one less attack vector.

It is a great concept, whether it continues its adoption path---flip a coin I suppose.

I tend to think it will, but I doubt that happens in the timeframes set forth by the stooge pumpers.
 
Did you explain that he won’t be coming because he quit IT to become an airline pilot?
If king Wilhelm Alexander of the Netherlands can moonlight from his day job of being king to fly for klm, who’s to judge a convinient store chain IT guy from doing the same. Lol.
 
One concern I have is that the AI bubble bursts, taking down stock indices, metals, and other commodities prices as large investment firms must sell off to cover margins, then the whole house of cards goes into free fall.
 
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One concern I have is that the AI bubble bursts, taking down stock indices, metals, and other commodities prices as large investment firms must sell off to cover margins, then the whole house of cards goes into free fall.
No clue as to how accurate it is, but I've heard people say that a huge part of NVDAs chips are sold to Open AI and that none of this had reach commercial status--as in profits. That would strike me as precarious.
 
No clue as to how accurate it is, but I've heard people say that a huge part of NVDAs chips are sold to Open AI and that none of this had reach commercial status--as in profits. That would strike me as precarious.
Nvidia is being used in every major AI data center, not just openai. But it's true that AI itself is not making profits, if that's what you mean. The big players are all making mega-investments hoping that, at some point, someone will figure out how to monetize it. OpenAI is interesting because it is by far the best known, but also the least stable in terms of financing. Contrast with Google, which invented modern AI and is so profitable in its other businesses that it is not only funding its AI ambitions with free cash, but it's also generating so much gross profit that it's paying a dividend even after the AI suck. If you're in the game of predicting the future, google and Microsoft have the war chest to fight this battle. OpenAI and xAI don't.

The question of how this gets monetized is still a massive one. There needs to be 10-20 times more revenue generated than currently. Is the consumer market going to be willing to pay $200/mo for AI, instead of $20. Seems unlikely. Is the corporate market going to be willing to spend $2K a month per user instead of $200? That's definitely more possible, but what would they be willing to spend that kind of money on? Not chatbots, which is a big percentage of the corporate market. And once that's removed then the remaining, higher value, use cases have other generate even more revenue.

So, are we looking at industry consolidation because it's already overbuilt for the use cases that can generate real value? Are we looking at a period of time where the industry has to learn to be vastly more efficient because the current level of services are needed, but can't be sustained with today's burn rate? Or is AI so valuable that the investments are justified and the industry will learn how to monetize them properly?

I have no idea.
 
Nvidia is being used in every major AI data center, not just openai. But it's true that AI itself is not making profits, if that's what you mean. The big players are all making mega-investments hoping that, at some point, someone will figure out how to monetize it. OpenAI is interesting because it is by far the best known, but also the least stable in terms of financing. Contrast with Google, which invented modern AI and is so profitable in its other businesses that it is not only funding its AI ambitions with free cash, but it's also generating so much gross profit that it's paying a dividend even after the AI suck. If you're in the game of predicting the future, google and Microsoft have the war chest to fight this battle. OpenAI and xAI don't.

The question of how this gets monetized is still a massive one. There needs to be 10-20 times more revenue generated than currently. Is the consumer market going to be willing to pay $200/mo for AI, instead of $20. Seems unlikely. Is the corporate market going to be willing to spend $2K a month per user instead of $200? That's definitely more possible, but what would they be willing to spend that kind of money on? Not chatbots, which is a big percentage of the corporate market. And once that's removed then the remaining, higher value, use cases have other generate even more revenue.

So, are we looking at industry consolidation because it's already overbuilt for the use cases that can generate real value? Are we looking at a period of time where the industry has to learn to be vastly more efficient because the current level of services are needed, but can't be sustained with today's burn rate? Or is AI so valuable that the investments are justified and the industry will learn how to monetize them properly?

I have no idea.
Sounds like you are far more up to speed than I.

If the Chinese put the chokehold onto "rare earth minerals"---where does that leave NVDA?
 
Sounds like you are far more up to speed than I.

If the Chinese put the chokehold onto "rare earth minerals"---where does that leave NVDA?
I'm probably more up to speed on some parts. I think I've mentioned before that https://nairrpilot.org/ is one of the project I work on. So I get a good view of some parts of what's going on from a technology and uptake perspective.

However, what you're asking about is about 1000% politics. I'm not going to dip my toe into that end of the pool.
 
I'm probably more up to speed on some parts. I think I've mentioned before that https://nairrpilot.org/ is one of the project I work on. So I get a good view of some parts of what's going on from a technology and uptake perspective.

However, what you're asking about is about 1000% politics. I'm not going to dip my toe into that end of the pool.
Economics and politics are intertwined on almost all levels.
 
So, simply discuss the economic issues, rather than mix them here.
 
My post concerned NVDA and "rare earth materials".

You cannot address the economic implications alone with any utility.

In a global economy, the policy obviously impacts the economics.

That is true across the board, not just with NVDA.

There is no point in creating a thread about gold going to 3K if you cannot discuss the "why" of it all.

None of this happens in a vacuum, no matter how rose tinted the glasses.
 

"Large flows of silver from the U.S. and China to London's spot market in the past week are easing a liquidity squeeze in the world's largest over-the-counter precious metals trading hub, traders and analysts said.

A shortage of available metal in the London market helped drive silver prices to a premium over U.S. Comex futures a week ago, making deliveries by airplane - usually reserved for much more expensive gold - profitable for sellers.

"The major pressure is done for now," said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. He estimated that around 15 million-20 million troy ounces (311-467 metric tons) of U.S.-based metal had arrived in London over the past week."
 
While not metals, but related (market volatility)... I’ve been actively watching nyse: WGO since I had heard that they were stopping their large motor home production line in their forest city plant and the price absolutely tanked. I have been absolutely struggling on the decision to buy big on it (I thought it was undervalued), and yesterday it popped.. lesson to self “stop procrastinating”. (I do think WGO is still substantially under valued, though I will not buy it soon.. 28% in a day swing is more volatile than I’m comfortable with, even with a dividend paying stock).
 
While not metals, but related (market volatility)... I’ve been actively watching nyse: WGO since I had heard that they were stopping their large motor home production line in their forest city plant and the price absolutely tanked. I have been absolutely struggling on the decision to buy big on it (I thought it was undervalued), and yesterday it popped.. lesson to self “stop procrastinating”. (I do think WGO is still substantially under valued, though I will not buy it soon.. 28% in a day swing is more volatile than I’m comfortable with, even with a dividend paying stock).
Considering what appears to be coming, I would think that such manufactures could easily be in for a world of pain within the next 18 months.
 
While not metals, but related (market volatility)... I’ve been actively watching nyse: WGO since I had heard that they were stopping their large motor home production line in their forest city plant and the price absolutely tanked. I have been absolutely struggling on the decision to buy big on it (I thought it was undervalued), and yesterday it popped.. lesson to self “stop procrastinating”. (I do think WGO is still substantially under valued, though I will not buy it soon.. 28% in a day swing is more volatile than I’m comfortable with, even with a dividend paying stock).
On a random day? Sure. But wasn't it from an earnings report?

Turns out your 'undervalued' designation was right on the mark.
 
Considering what appears to be coming, I would think that such manufactures could easily be in for a world of pain within the next 18 months.
Precisely my thoughts and what kept me from thinking instead of pulling the trigger and buying.
On a random day? Sure. But wasn't it from an earnings report?

Turns out your 'undervalued' designation was right on the mark.
This is correct, WGO has really diversified over the decades, but it’s core fundamental “common point” is luxury recreational goods. Without reading their earnings report I do know from keeping a close eye on the company’s public data that their development of an offshoot company holdings focused on electrical storage systems (initially for motive power and “off grid” camping in rv’s has been expanding to home backup power (alternative option instead of a generator). With some state essentially banning small internal combustion engines (or trying to). This may be a large growing market with potential. Time will tell.
 
The diversification is just a small portion of the company, with a smaller profit margin than motor homes.
 
I do have a biased opinion on WGO, I had an uncle (long since pasted away) that was quite influential in my life growing up. He was one of the original hired employees when the forest city’s motor home facility was first started. Hired as a welder, within the first few years they pressured him to take on a manager position as it grew… he didn’t want the responsibility and when it came to “take it or leave” he negotiated a large part of his salary to be payed in shares. He latter was advanced to director of a department and awarded a large share bonus and had a signed contract that stipulated an equal value of his salary portion of shares also be issued to him each year. He had amassed a ton of it before it first split, kept amassing and it split again many times latter, all the while rolling the dividends back into more stock. He went from welder to multimillionaire during his career there. I remember him talking about how concerned he was about an attempted hostile take over by a Japanese firm (late 80’s-early 90’s ish time frame?) when it was going on, but his mentorship growing up has had a strong impact on me, my investment strategies, and is the reason that I watch WGO extremely closely.
 
I do have a biased opinion on WGO, I had an uncle (long since pasted away) that was quite influential in my life growing up. He was one of the original hired employees when the forest city’s motor home facility was first started. Hired as a welder, within the first few years they pressured him to take on a manager position as it grew… he didn’t want the responsibility and when it came to “take it or leave” he negotiated a large part of his salary to be payed in shares. He latter was advanced to director of a department and awarded a large share bonus and had a signed contract that stipulated an equal value of his salary portion of shares also be issued to him each year. He had amassed a ton of it before it first split, kept amassing and it split again many times latter, all the while rolling the dividends back into more stock. He went from welder to multimillionaire during his career there. I remember him talking about how concerned he was about an attempted hostile take over by a Japanese firm (late 80’s-early 90’s ish time frame?) when it was going on, but his mentorship growing up has had a strong impact on me, my investment strategies, and is the reason that I watch WGO extremely closely.
That is an awesome story---good for your uncle.
 
That’s just crazy!
Back when I made my post about selling some to buy a snowblower the old timer (seriously well into his 90’s) that runs the shop told me then when I was selling and in a very very confident way he expected it to top at $74 in march. And he was dead serious.
 
I wish I had the money back in April to buy the vault full I wanted to
 
The gold/silver price ratio is 69:1 as of this afternoon. My precious metals manager recommends liquidating silver to convert into gold if/when the ratio hits 65:1. I will definitely follow his recommendations. Since I have been investing in precious metals, which is just over 3 years, my account has made dramatic gains and is beating the snot out of all other investments, even my private equity investment. Crazy!
 
Precious metals historically thrive in unstable social, political, geopolitical, and in times of extreme technological change. Gold is gold, it may dip but it is still the “gold standard”. Silver follows the same trends as the other precious metals but because of its lower cost behaves more speculatively. I think this time is different. It has a much larger percentage of its global supply being used in industrial purposes, and the explosion of data center construction rates, AI, and electrical grid upgrades needed to support them requires an unprecedented level of physical consumption of the silver reserves. Add in that the number of “paper” holdings of physical silver in the markets is extremely highly leveraged and the consumption rate exceeds the replenishment rate from mining so it swings the price accordingly with a lot of leverage. I think most of the “scrap silver” that traditionally floods the markets when it goes higher has already been cashed in when it got passed $40 and while it use to be a balance now pales in comparison to the quantity needed to have an effect on the “today” level of withdrawal from the holding houses to meet needed demand.
 
Back when I made my post about selling some to buy a snowblower the old timer (seriously well into his 90’s) that runs the shop told me then when I was selling and in a very very confident way he expected it to top at $74 in march. And he was dead serious.
It is basically built in---dollar debasement will continue and continue. Hard assets like gold and silver will do their thing and serve as a hedge. The only limit to the price of gold or silver is the limit to print fiat---which is to say there is none. Timing it might be tricky--but simply holding it is a time tested way to protect purchasing power.
 
The gold/silver price ratio is 69:1 as of this afternoon. My precious metals manager recommends liquidating silver to convert into gold if/when the ratio hits 65:1. I will definitely follow his recommendations. Since I have been investing in precious metals, which is just over 3 years, my account has made dramatic gains and is beating the snot out of all other investments, even my private equity investment. Crazy!
Good for you dude? More people are waking up to the nonsense of endless fiat.
 
Precious metals historically thrive in unstable social, political, geopolitical, and in times of extreme technological change. Gold is gold, it may dip but it is still the “gold standard”. Silver follows the same trends as the other precious metals but because of its lower cost behaves more speculatively. I think this time is different. It has a much larger percentage of its global supply being used in industrial purposes, and the explosion of data center construction rates, AI, and electrical grid upgrades needed to support them requires an unprecedented level of physical consumption of the silver reserves. Add in that the number of “paper” holdings of physical silver in the markets is extremely highly leveraged and the consumption rate exceeds the replenishment rate from mining so it swings the price accordingly with a lot of leverage. I think most of the “scrap silver” that traditionally floods the markets when it goes higher has already been cashed in when it got passed $40 and while it use to be a balance now pales in comparison to the quantity needed to have an effect on the “today” level of withdrawal from the holding houses to meet needed demand.
All of the above and an additional significant driver of the steady price increase is the buying of significant quantities of gold by central banks across the globe. Gold is looking safer than buying US treasuries.
 
All of the above and an additional significant driver of the steady price increase is the buying of significant quantities of gold by central banks across the globe. Gold is looking safer than buying US treasuries.
I would not consider US treasuries safe whatsoever---unless the definition of "safe" includes locking in assured losses---when was the last time 10 year treasuries kept up with inflation?
 
The gold/silver price ratio is 69:1 as of this afternoon. My precious metals manager recommends liquidating silver to convert into gold if/when the ratio hits 65:1. I will definitely follow his recommendations. Since I have been investing in precious metals, which is just over 3 years, my account has made dramatic gains and is beating the snot out of all other investments, even my private equity investment. Crazy!

I still hold that markets are, if not rational, at least efficient. Leading me to believe that any sort of scheme to "beat the market" by timing is at best extremely difficult - if not impossible. My small horde of gold and silver are doing spectacularly well in spite of my "buy and hold" strategy.

I am still astounded at this silver price. In 1963, one could walk into a bank and for $20 walk out with a roll of 20 silver dollars. If someone had put forth that one day each silver dollar might be worth $60 or more, I would have thought them mad. But here we are.

Interestingly, $20 in 1963 would be $210.65 today due to inflation. But that roll of silver dollars is today worth $1,200, putting one well ahead of inflation. Note: those dollars are only 90% silver, but coinage tends to pretty closely track the price of the underlying metal.
 
I still hold that markets are, if not rational, at least efficient. Leading me to believe that any sort of scheme to "beat the market" by timing is at best extremely difficult - if not impossible. My small horde of gold and silver are doing spectacularly well in spite of my "buy and hold" strategy.

I am still astounded at this silver price. In 1963, one could walk into a bank and for $20 walk out with a roll of 20 silver dollars. If someone had put forth that one day each silver dollar might be worth $60 or more, I would have thought them mad. But here we are.

Interestingly, $20 in 1963 would be $210.65 today due to inflation. But that roll of silver dollars is today worth $1,200, putting one well ahead of inflation. Note: those dollars are only 90% silver, but coinage tends to pretty closely track the price of the underlying metal.
You have been at this metal game far longer than me---but it was not that long ago that I was seriously feeling silly about buying gold coins under 2K. I bought these with essentially zero expectation after a conversation with an 80 year old fellow pilot. I had never previously had any interest in gold, unless it was in a Rolex. I believe I have a far better historical and economic perspective than I ever did in the past and I no longer have concerns of buying gold, even at 4.3K. I have never bought silver, but would consider it.
 
..." any sort of scheme to "beat the market" by timing is at best extremely difficult - if not impossible."...
The strategy is not trying to beat the market, per se, but a very objective approach to accumulate gold by using the purchasing power of other appreciated metals. The managing firm I use, McAlvany Precious Metals, uses statistical analysis on the price spreads between white and yellow metals to determine when to purchase and trade white for yellow. There are definite trends that are gleaned from historical pricing data that are used to suggest when to make a trade. Certainly not risk free but they have been a great partner to one of my financial managers over a 14 year period and the reason why he suggested working with them. I was hesitant but, after seeing my vested amounts nearly double in just over 3 years, I am quite pleased.
 
The strategy is not trying to beat the market, per se, but a very objective approach to accumulate gold by using the purchasing power of other appreciated metals. The managing firm I use, McAlvany Precious Metals, uses statistical analysis on the price spreads between white and yellow metals to determine when to purchase and trade white for yellow. There are definite trends that are gleaned from historical pricing data that are used to suggest when to make a trade. Certainly not risk free but they have been a great partner to one of my financial managers over a 14 year period and the reason why he suggested working with them. I was hesitant but, after seeing my vested amounts nearly double in just over 3 years, I am quite pleased.
This is absolutely a strong (albeit little known/used strategy). By analyzing price spreads, trends, forecasted usage and mining production tonnage and swapping back and forth between gold and silver when one is over or undervalued. Currently there is a lot of silver used in circuit boards, computer processors. Etc, and data centers used huge amounts of those. AI is fueling huge growth of data centers, ergo, silver is in high demand in relation to gold (and will be for the forseable next couple of years). So silver was the strong suit to be holding. When that construction wains and silver consumption drops to more normal levels it’s value in relation to gold will drop back down so it is better to sell the silver and buy gold before that happens. Good part about the metals strategy is even if you mess up you still have the precious metals which is basically the safest haven their is against long term inflation.

The same play use to be common with farmers when I was young, only with corn and hogs. Corn is low, pork is high, feed out hogs, corn is high, pork is low, sell the corn.
 
I guess the idea is that anything you or your broker may know about “price spreads, trends, forecasted usage and mining production tonnage” is also known to others in the market and influencing their investment decisions. But maybe some can process that information better than others, and hopefully your management firm is among that group. But, like baseball, “If it was easy, anyone could do it!”.
 
I came across this image recently.

54995003864_5b336c7af7_z.jpg


I think it graphically shows the erosion of the value of the dollar.
 
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