NA - Gold nearing $3,000!

172andyou said:
Are you implying that only retail can cause a bubble?

To some degree, yes. So, what happens to the current price when people have confidence in the economy again?
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I would suspect the better question is "what would it take for people to have confidence in the economy again?"

I would contend the probability of any "recovery" from systemic and long term issues and habits will remain. I do not foresee any cuts in government spending on any level. The national debt will continue to balloon as will the interest on that debt. Nor do I foresee central banks unloading gold as fiat currencies continue to debase.

Investing of any sort is very much a subjective matter and what might be good for some might not be as good for another. I would suspect most would benefit from holding gold and some will benefit from holding bitcoin---but as mentioned elsewhere---I do not personally recommend bitcoin unless you are in a position to truly hold for 4 plus years or more.

Hypothetically, if the economy were to come roaring back (which seems highly unlikely), I would suspect interest in gold would wane. I do not suggest bitcoin or gold as get rich quick paths. Some might get lucky, but at this point I think the challenge is simply protecting your purchasing power via "hard assets".

By all means---if anyone can point to facts to brighten up this topic and show me how we are about to turn the corner and escape dead man's curve---I'd love to hear it.
 
Salty said:
Investing in it is not gross. Divesting may be considered such however.
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I dunno. I invest in copper and lead on a regular basis and divest of it by tossing it at elevated velocities 600-1000yds a couple of weekends per month. The returns in fun have been outstanding!
 
"So, what happens to the current price when people have confidence in the economy again?"

I don't forsee gold tanking in relation to securities. My precious metal plays are aimed, ultimately, at securing more yellow metal by playing white metals. My gold investments are aimed at having a liquid asset available, during retirement, that is likely to hold its value when equity investments take a dip. At that point I can liquidate metals for income until equities rebound. It allows a liquidity source other than devalued equities during those expected periodic downturns. I have a couple of friends that have invested in gold as a hedge against an apocolyptic scenario. That is not my aim.
 
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robin ardoin said:
"So, what happens to the current price when people have confidence in the economy again?"

I don't forsee gold tanking in relation to securities. My precious metal plays are aimed, ultimately, at securing more yellow metal by playing white metals. My gold investments are aimed at having a liquid asset available, during retirement, that is likely to hold its value when equity investments take a dip. At that point I can liquidate metals for income until equities rebound. It allows a liquidity source other than devalued equities during those expected periodoc dowturns. I have a couple of friends that have invested in gold as a hedge against an apocolyptic scenario. That is not my aim.
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My only complaint with gold is the transactional costs. I have never sold any, but the "add on" to buy and "exit tax" seems a little absurd compared to any other investment--excluding maybe things like "fine art" or "classic cars".
 
WJG-GMT-RootBeer said:
My only complaint with gold is the transactional costs. I have never sold any, but the "add on" to buy and "exit tax" seems a little absurd compared to any other investment--excluding maybe things like "fine art" or "classic cars".
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I have only used one brokerage to handle my PM transactions and I didn't feel that the costs (buy/sell, storage) were egregious . However, I have not shopped around. Definitely higher costs than securities.
 
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robin ardoin said:
I have only used one brokerage to handle my PM transactions and I didn't feel that the costs (buy/sell, storage) were egregious . However, I have not shopped around. Definitely higher costs than securities.
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It has been a while for me, as I started when gold was like 2K an ounce. But I seem to recall the mark up was like 100 dollars and I think it was basically the same if you tried to sell it. So, as a transaction, I viewed that as very high. With the rise in prices, taking the hit wouldn't kill me, but it is something to keep in mind if you were advising someone or simply discussing the topic.
 
What about investing in a gold ETF? Do they not track the metal price closely enough? Do they have similar fees hidden in the background?
 
172andyou said:
What about investing in a gold ETF? Do they not track the metal price closely enough? Do they have similar fees hidden in the background?
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SGOL is one. It's up about 38% YTD, while spot gold is up around 40%, so fairly close.

I've also been a fan of GLDI and SLVO lately. Not exactly gold/silver ETFs, they are ETNs (exchange traded notes). They've been paying absolutely ludicrous dividends. I have pretty tight trailing stop sell orders on them, though. I will happily take the dividends while putting very little trust in their stability.
 
172andyou said:
What about investing in a gold ETF? Do they not track the metal price closely enough? Do they have similar fees hidden in the background?
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I have never tried one. Would not be against it, but the point of gold to me is along the "money in hand" mindset with none of the third-party risks. Obviously, the big benefit would be buying and selling with ease I would assume.

As some here might now, the money you have in a bank is only yours if they say you can have it. I tend to doubt its a good idea to have substantial sums of your money in any bank or combination of bank.

If you have the audacity to ask for any substantial amount of money in cash, they look at you like you are an Escobar. And by "substantial", will it can be a lot less than you would ever imagine. KYC was never about drug traffickers, it was about controlling the average dude. It obviously did nothing to stop drugs, yet these laws still exist. There is only one purpose such rules serve and its not to benefit the people who make the deposits or who hope to make the withdraws.
 
Flatiowa said:
I bought 100 one ounce apmex silver singles to add to my silver stash for $14.95 early April 2020, I see silver is spot priced at $41.58 this morning. I think I’m going to break one of my personal rules and sell 30 of them today (first time ever selling silver, I have always just periodically bought it) The coin shop in the nearest city (where I have always just gone to buy) buys at close to spot price and the fleetfarm in the same town has a sale on last years inventory of snow blowers. The combination of a great return on the silver, the great price (value) on the old stock snowblower (that I need), and the assumption that they will not be getting cheaper with current inflation and tariffs affecting new stock merchandise to me justifies the sale. I really don’t like selling it and could pay cash instead, but I’ve seen silver spike and dive before, and I think it will adjust down in the relatively near future and I will use my cash to buy back more of it then.
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Follow up.. I did seem to hit a spike, but it seems to have leveled off roughly at the same level give or take…. I’ve made the “irrational decision??” to buy much, much more Tuesday morning….
 
Flatiowa said:
Follow up.. I did seem to hit a spike, but it seems to have leveled off roughly at the same level give or take…. I’ve made the “irrational decision??” to buy much, much more Tuesday morning….
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It’s demonstrably difficult to “time markets”. “Buy and hold” often has many benefits including better long term gains.

But to repeat, “You’ll never go broke taking a profit”. So, your decision could very well be “rational” - only you can judge.
 
donjohnston said:
I just sold a couple American Eagle coins.

That means gold prices are going to go up significantly. So if you were thinking of buying, now's the time.

:rofl:
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Maybe you can be the site’s Jim Cramer?

From Gemini: The term "Jim Cramer inverse law" is a popular meme and a satirical concept in the world of finance, especially among retail investors. It's the idea that whatever Jim Cramer, the host of CNBC's "Mad Money," recommends, you should do the exact opposite to make money.
 
FastEddieB said:
Maybe you can be the site’s Jim Cramer?

From Gemini: The term "Jim Cramer inverse law" is a popular meme and a satirical concept in the world of finance, especially among retail investors. It's the idea that whatever Jim Cramer, the host of CNBC's "Mad Money," recommends, you should do the exact opposite to make money.
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I would think now is the time to accumulate--not sell--not unless you absolutely need to do so. I see no economic indicators that would suggest that gold is going to lose any significant value. I would go so far as to speculate that gold hitting 5K is a real possibility.
 
DaleB said:
And I just bought some silver, so look for silver prices to begin a historic decline into the single digits.
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Looks like based on spot prices you were probably up approx 4% at todays close…. Definitely not bad for one day of trading being open…. Im thinking I should have bought Friday instead of holding off until tomorrow.
 
Flatiowa said:
Looks like based on spot prices you were probably up approx 4% at todays close…. Definitely not bad for one day of trading being open…. Im thinking I should have bought Friday instead of holding off until tomorrow.
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I was looking at buying a couple more bars back toward the end of August, and decided to hold off until after the first of the month. Why? Uhhh... I don't really know. Should have bought back then. Unfortunately I seem to have forgotten where I parked the time machine.
 
Gold is $3,808.00 per oz today. It isn’t that gold is so precious as much as the dollar isn’t worth much.

Gold is up approx 100% in 5 years.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has gone up 950% in the same time period.
 
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Stewartb said:
Gold is $3,808.00 per oz today. It isn’t that gold is so precious as much as the dollar isn’t worth much.

Gold is up approx 100% in 5 years.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has gone up 950% in the same time period.
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That is accurate.

I suspect the wise will want both.

That being said, a lot of the narrative on bitcoin for 2025 reminds me of 2021--which turned out to be a painful event.

I tend to think the worst thing about bitcoin is the "bitcoin community" and their absurd predictions (lies) and nonsense. I suspect it keep serious investors on the sidelines. Too much hype and too many clowns.

The only thing we know for sure is that the purchasing power of the dollar will continue to decrease, perhaps rapidly.
 
Silver is up close to 3% today..
Flatiowa said:
Have you been watching the metals markets? This might be a case where the ones with the money just cash out into physical assets and wait out the storm. (The amount of physically deliverable silver compared to the amount traded in the futures is a ratio that would make the hunt brother blush, if I was a billionaire or a decision maker of a nationalized investment program I absolutely would be buying silver delivery contracts and filling up a Scrooge mcduck style “money bin”.
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Hate to quote myself, but I posted this on April 21st in a different thread (about inflation). Seems like with the trend in silver somebody else was thinking the same, they could potentially have been doubling it up by buying long out futures contracts while buying nearer term deliverables knowing full well that as they come due there will be less availability on the market and an almost certainty of increased price that they can clean up on. Hunt brothers 2.0, the inflationary economic situation would be just like throwing fuel on the fire..1CA5E2E6-C219-408F-8F03-34B2C0654532.jpeg
Note the volume bars on the bottom…
 
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Flatiowa said:
Silver is up close to 3% today..

Hate to quote myself, but I posted this on April 21st in a different thread (about inflation). Seems like with the trend in silver somebody else was thinking the same, they could potentially have been doubling it up by buying long out futures contracts while buying nearer term deliverables knowing full well that as they come due there will be less availability on the market and an almost certainty of increased price that they can clean up on. Hunt brothers 2.0, the inflationary economic situation would be just like throwing fuel on the fire..View attachment 145491
Note the volume bars on the bottom…
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Indeed it is and has been on roll. Never fooled with it because it takes a lot to make a meaningful difference. Suspect such "hard commodities" will continue to thrive in this enviroment.
 
I'm late to the party. I don't buy physical gold. I have a precious metals fund that is diversified into gold and other metals.
I also have a Gold Miners fund that mines, refines, and sells gold. Its return is correlated to the price of gold and inversely correlated to the price of electricity. It also pays a dividend, which physical gold doesn't/can't do.

Funeral home jokes.
You plug'em, we plant'em.
Our customers never complain.
We'll be the last to let you down.
 
Crashnburn said:
I'm late to the party. I don't buy physical gold. I have a precious metals fund that is diversified into gold and other metals.
I also have a Gold Miners fund that mines, refines, and sells gold. Its return is correlated to the price of gold and inversely correlated to the price of electricity. It also pays a dividend, which physical gold doesn't/can't do.

Funeral home jokes.
You plug'em, we plant'em.
Our customers never complain.
We'll be the last to let you down.
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I would be curious as to thoughts on the best of the ETFs. The gold miners--spook me. Of course, I have never looked deeply at them but can imagine the costs of these operations and how quickly they could burn through investor sponsored cash. Good luck
 
Crashnburn said:
I'm late to the party. I don't buy physical gold. I have a precious metals fund that is diversified into gold and other metals.
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That's certainly a rational and convenient way to "own" gold or other precious metals.

I am NOT a prepper or survivalist. But it's not outside the realm of possibility that a cyberattack or other financial breakdown could cripple markets and make cashing out of a fund problematic, at least temporarily. For that albeit unlikely scenario, physical gold or other precious metals could help one weather the storm. I, personally take comfort in that, though YMMV.
 
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The U.S. dollar, under pressure since the start of the year, may struggle to find its footing against most major currencies over the coming 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists who said the already crowded short U.S. dollar trade will remain.

Against the backdrop of rising U.S. fiscal deficit and worries that the Federal Reserve's independence was eroding, global investors have dumped the dollar for other major currencies and assets like gold which has surged more than 47% this year, setting record highs, on safe-haven demand.

"The U.S. fiscal situation is this ongoing 800-pound gorilla of the markets, that special status means you can’t just go into other currencies - you go into gold," said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.

"Gold is telling you what people think of fiscal pressure...people recognize nobody has a clean shirt. Everyone’s running on a dirty shirt."
This has weakened the greenback by about 10% for the year, a trend expected to continue as the Fed is forecast to ease policy further to stave off weakness in the labour market. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is likely done with cutting interest rates.


So yes, the dollar is going to tank for the foreseeable future. Money is looking for a place to go. Bitcoin has risen but is all hopes and dreams backed by nothing, so gold it is.
 
Publicly available information put out by basin electric generation cooperative recently (a very large provider of electricity to the United States northern midwestern regions says what many have been hypothesizing about for a few years. The grid can’t support/was not ever designed for electric cars or data centers, AI, and is reaching a critical point. Their wholesale Electric cost rates are set to increase 9.9% January 1st 2026, and an additional 7.8% on January 1st 2027. The grid needs updated, and a lot of industries will begin to see the pinch first quarter of 2026.
 
Just a random observation, but kids cartoons are a lot different than they used to be…and have been for a long time..
 
UngaWunga said:

The U.S. dollar, under pressure since the start of the year, may struggle to find its footing against most major currencies over the coming 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists who said the already crowded short U.S. dollar trade will remain.

Against the backdrop of rising U.S. fiscal deficit and worries that the Federal Reserve's independence was eroding, global investors have dumped the dollar for other major currencies and assets like gold which has surged more than 47% this year, setting record highs, on safe-haven demand.

"The U.S. fiscal situation is this ongoing 800-pound gorilla of the markets, that special status means you can’t just go into other currencies - you go into gold," said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.

"Gold is telling you what people think of fiscal pressure...people recognize nobody has a clean shirt. Everyone’s running on a dirty shirt."
This has weakened the greenback by about 10% for the year, a trend expected to continue as the Fed is forecast to ease policy further to stave off weakness in the labour market. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is likely done with cutting interest rates.


So yes, the dollar is going to tank for the foreseeable future. Money is looking for a place to go. Bitcoin has risen but is all hopes and dreams backed by nothing, so gold it is.
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I agree entirely that the dollar will continue to decline.

That has already been baked into the asinine algorithm of western economies.

Gold has value for a lot of reasons, one of them is you have to actually work for it. You are unlikely just to stumble upon it in some field or in a cave. You also have to work for Bitcoin. Like mining for gold, its an expensive proposition involving specific mining rigs and the use of electricity. I think that it why some like Mike Saylor state that it is backed by energy--you cannot just click a button and make one. I suspect gold will continue to thrive into the following years, but that Bitcoin will likely be a faster horse. Of course, sometimes a fast horse stumbles and falls, which can be exceedingly frustrating if you are substantially invested.

Which is why I look at it as a 4 year play or longer. If you can invest the money with no expectation or probability of needing it back in 4 years or more, you will likely end up with more than you put in---substantially more. We experienced it. The big problem is that, life can be unpredictable and if you need that money during a down draft---it could be painful--very painful. The volatility will probably phase down as adoption continues.

Interesting story for some: I know a lady who was trying to buy "vape juice" on line back in 2021. The seller would only take Bitcoin. She asked me what it was and I told her what little I knew at the time and sent her some Mike Saylor videos. So, she buys like 0.75 of a bitcoin or something close at around 32K. Later she added another 0.30 Bitcoin. So, she is sitting on over 1 Bitcoin at some pretty wild average of like 41K or 42K. She is close to tripling her money all because she wanted to place a 250 dollar order for her vape.
 
I wish I had data on forced margin call sale numbers on short sellers for December deliveries in the precious metals markets. I would bet a dollar against a nickle that short sellers 8 months ago were in no way anticipating the current market trends… and as due date starts to fast aproach I think those shorts still covering margins but seeing the price continue to rise are getting nervous. Unless the price crashes they are going to loose big time, and they know it. My prediction is As December gets closer they will accept the loss is inevitable and buy to cover before it goes higher. The long buy guys seeing the price increases will be reluctant to sell (I would be, I mean even if the price does start to drop it still is a great return so why not wait and see how high it will go???). It may be a very interesting 4th quarter of 2025 for the market (I speculate that it will be used as an example of market volatility for many years in finance classes).
But I’m just a high school graduate (barely, and majored in shop) with no formal education in finance or economics…so rank my opinion on the same level as a advise you’d get from Jed clampet.
 
Comex market opened for the week and silver is trading above $48…
 
Flatiowa said:
Comex market opened for the week and silver is trading above $48…
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yeah, that's not a good sign.

And just because the "value" of a bitcoin has gone up doesn't make it an investment. Its uses are still only really shuffling real money around without as much tracking. For fraud, etc, as we've seen with a lot of coin pump-dump schemes and other outright corruption.
 
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