NA - Gold nearing $3,000!

UngaWunga said:
yeah, that's not a good sign.

And just because the "value" of a bitcoin has gone up doesn't make it an investment. Its uses are still only really shuffling real money around without as much tracking. For fraud, etc, as we've seen with a lot of coin pump-dump schemes and other outright corruption.
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Well, for the last 15 years--nothing I know of has out performed it. And, we have had "fraud" since the inception of the dollar. Unfortunately, some still confuse "Bitcoin" with "crypto". Only one is a commodity---the others are all essentially unregistered securities. Touching them is like taking a mercury bath. Like gold, you do have to be patient with it. Both likely to be taking the escalator UP in 2026 and beyond.
 
It’s hard to wrap my mind around these prices.

In my lifetime, I could walk into a bank with $20 and walk out with a roll of 20 silver dollars. Today, that same roll of silver dollars is approaching $1,000!

Wild to think that the dollar has been devalued by that much.
 
FastEddieB said:
It’s hard to wrap my mind around these prices.

In my lifetime, I could walk into a bank with $20 and walk out with a roll of 20 silver dollars. Today, that same roll of silver dollars is approaching $1,000!

Wild to think that the dollar has been devalued by that much.
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Its literally dying and most do not even seem to realize it.
 
Half Fast said:
...or did the dollar just drop to four thousand per ounce of gold?
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Have been too busy watching the bitcoin fluctuations to notice---but 4K was already baked in from my point of view and, I suspect that the real action is just starting.
 
Awesome. I buy gold bars from Costco and by the time they get delivered I'm already in the black. Not even counting the 4% off the top for using their credit card.
 
FastEddieB said:
“You can never go broke taking a profit” - old Wall Street maxim.

Gentle reminder - there will be capital gains tax due on your profit, unless you have offsetting losses elsewhere.
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Not just capital gains....metals are taxed as collectibles capital gains, at 28% when held > 1 year.
 
murphey said:
Not just capital gains....metals are taxed as collectibles capital gains, at 28% when held > 1 year.
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Wonder how and who reports the sales? If you go in with a few coins, would you not want the cash or is that not an option? I have never tried to sell. I have been told that coins are far easier to sell if you need to---but I have no first hand confirmation of that.
 
UngaWunga said:
yeah, that's not a good sign.

And just because the "value" of a bitcoin has gone up doesn't make it an investment. Its uses are still only really shuffling real money around without as much tracking. For fraud, etc, as we've seen with a lot of coin pump-dump schemes and other outright corruption.
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When you stop and dig into the technology of cryptocurrency (I teach this stuff) Bitcoin (the specific crypto) is one of the worst energy demand industries around due to the method of validation - monstrous and not very efficient number crunching. Ethereum is another distributed platform with its own programming language for developing apps and contracts, ether is its crypto and a few years ago changed how a transaction was validated, which reduces the energy requirement by 85-90%. The software for all crypto is open source and anyone can invent a new crypto currency, as illustrated by dogecoin and the other millions of useless, worthless cryptos created just because they can be.

It bothers me that bitcoin (and etherum and dogecoin, etc) is listed on a stock exchange. But when you consider that since the US went off the gold standard, is the dollar really any different than crypto, other than you can carry around small pieces of paper and worthless metals? When you make a credit card purchase, it's nothing more than electrons running around software. The primary difference is crypto is distributed and anyone can stand up a bitcoin server which means anyone can have copies of all the transactions but only the bank that issued your credit card sees all the transactions on the card.
 
WJG-GMT-RootBeer said:
Wonder how and who reports the sales? If you go in with a few coins, would you not want the cash or is that not an option? I have never tried to sell. I have been told that coins are far easier to sell if you need to---but I have no first hand confirmation of that.
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There's a sales receipt. I sold a couple gold coins before covid (stupid, but who knew?). The reputable coin shop charged me 3%, I received the cash & receipt and the coin shop is obligated to report my sale to the IRS if it exceeds some limit, I forget what it is. But I'm required to report the sale on my taxes regardless.
 
Flatiowa said:
Are you selling?
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Absolutely not. I’m not a speculator.

What I have just sits as a hedge against inflation, or god forbid, hyperinflation.

I fully expect it will be up to my heirs to decide what to do with it someday. Fortunately, with a stepped up basis.
 
murphey said:
When you stop and dig into the technology of cryptocurrency (I teach this stuff) Bitcoin (the specific crypto) is one of the worst energy demand industries around due to the method of validation - monstrous and not very efficient number crunching. Ethereum is another distributed platform with its own programming language for developing apps and contracts, ether is its crypto and a few years ago changed how a transaction was validated, which reduces the energy requirement by 85-90%. The software for all crypto is open source and anyone can invent a new crypto currency, as illustrated by dogecoin and the other millions of useless, worthless cryptos created just because they can be.

It bothers me that bitcoin (and etherum and dogecoin, etc) is listed on a stock exchange. But when you consider that since the US went off the gold standard, is the dollar really any different than crypto, other than you can carry around small pieces of paper and worthless metals? When you make a credit card purchase, it's nothing more than electrons running around software. The primary difference is crypto is distributed and anyone can stand up a bitcoin server which means anyone can have copies of all the transactions but only the bank that issued your credit card sees all the transactions on the card.
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To me, the difference is that Bitcoin is scarce and it is not controlled by anyone source or group of creators. None of the others of which I am aware can even make anything close to that claim. The true decentralization and scarcity are what sets it apart from ETH and what some call clown coins. It is also noteworthy (to me) that Bitcoin has no record of a "creator" who cashed in---none of the others can make that claim either. The energy aspect does not concern me because, if Bitcoin lived up to its potential, much of the silliness of fiat gets left behind. It takes a lot of energy to mine for gold as well. Or to get involved in endless wars. I completely agree that what we have currently is basically an "electronic dollar"---just photons bouncing from one computer terminal to the next. The distributed nature of bitcoin seems like a feature, not a bug as they like to say.

If you teach this stuff, my question is whether its accurate to say that Bitcoin is truly peer to peer. Seems to me like you still need "lightening" or some other intermediary to be involved. I have never sold and never tried to send to anyone, but I would be curious if the peer to peer tag line is legit from your perspective.
 
I don’t like the electronic currency system. It was only few years ago I was in a Walmart and all the checkouts had huge lines that were not moving… a fiber optic line had been broken and internet/phone service for the area was down=no credit card or debit card purchases. I finally went up to the the person who appeared to be the very panicked supervisor and told her I pay in cash, that will work without card readers.. and she opened a line and announced that row can check out but only if paying with cash. Out of about 75 people in line, 3 of us got in that line.. I can’t imagine what would happen with large scale power or data loss over a large area/economy for any length of time that’s fully dependent on electronic payments.
 
Flatiowa said:
I don’t like the electronic currency system. It was only few years ago I was in a Walmart and all the checkouts had huge lines that were not moving… a fiber optic line had been broken and internet/phone service for the area was down=no credit card or debit card purchases. I finally went up to the the person who appeared to be the very panicked supervisor and told her I pay in cash, that will work without card readers.. and she opened a line and announced that row can check out but only if paying with cash. Out of about 75 people in line, 3 of us got in that line.. I can’t imagine what would happen with large scale power or data loss over a large area/economy for any length of time that’s fully dependent on electronic payments.
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I don't like it as a standalone system, but when used alongside cash? Or in addition to? It's fine. Its advantage is that no third party can 'freeze' your account.
 
WJG-GMT-RootBeer said:
To me, the difference is that Bitcoin is scarce and it is not controlled by anyone source or group of creators. None of the others of which I am aware can even make anything close to that claim.
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There are currently at least eight crypto coins based on the bitcoin algorithm. As a result all eight can make that claim. And anyone who wants to can create a ninth tomorrow. Or a tenth.

To put it in the terms of Hamilton Helmer's 7 Powers:
  1. Scale Economies: If you make a lot of lemonade, you can do it cheaper than others. It’s like buying lemons in bulk to get a discount.
  2. Network Economies: The more friends you have drinking your lemonade, the more other kids want to join in. Everyone wants to be part of the fun!
  3. Counter Positioning: You have a secret ingredient in your lemonade that others don't. New stands can't easily copy it because it's too different from what they're used to.
  4. Switching Costs: If your friends buy a special cup for your lemonade, they won’t want to switch to another stand because then their cup would be useless.
  5. Branding: Everyone loves your lemonade because it has a super cool name and logo. When kids think of lemonade, they think of you.
  6. Cornered Resource: You have the only special tree that grows the best lemons, so no one else can make lemonade as good as yours.
  7. Process Power: You have a special, super-fast way to make lemonade that no one else knows about, so you can serve it faster and better.
Bitcoin has 2 and 5. It doesn't have the other five powers. But, more importantly, any other crypto using the same algorithm can also have 2 and 5 because neither are technological barriers to entry. They are purely social.

So, the entire point of the seven powers is to build a moat around a business to protect it, but bitcoins only moat is popularity. It is doomed. Speculating when or why it will fail is anybodies guess. But it's inevitable that it will fail since it costs nobody anything to switch to a competing product that is not just similar or can serve the same purpose, but is literally identical.

WJG-GMT-RootBeer said:
It is also noteworthy (to me) that Bitcoin has no record of a "creator" who cashed in---none of the others can make that claim either.
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This is a liability, not a benefit. The fact that the creator(s) haven't cashed in is almost certainly because those early coins are lost. Coins are lost constantly. Since they can't be replaced, this is a liability. In fact, it makes it kind of an interesting speculative question to even say what the market cap of bitcoin is since the number of lost coins can't really be known. But about 20% are in wallets that haven't been used in over a decade and are almost certainly just gone.
 
FastEddieB said:
I fully expect it will be up to my heirs to decide what to do with it someday. Fortunately, with a stepped up basis.
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That also resets the capital gains basis. I still have a foreign 1854 silver coin my great great grandfather brought over when he immigrated and a bunch of rare date cc Morgan dollars of my great grandfathers, liberty dollars from my grand father, and some bars from my father. I will never sell then, they will be passed down, but generations before me, my siblings, and my having 3 children always keeps dividing it each generation so each one has to build up there own stack..same way it works with land. A couple generations worth of splits and even a large wealth disappears.
 
This has the makings to be a very interesting week in metals.. (all markets for that matter)..
 
And still climbing steadily, approaching $51.. the phycological barrier wall of $50 has been breached.
 
I feel like platinum is being forgotten about and will be the dark horse that breaks out of its price slump to become the highest metals gainer for the remaining 4th quarter of 2025.
 
If there is a short squeeze here, all the metals will fall back to normal rapidly. Platinum seems to have been left out of the game.:goofy:

Just do not panic if gold suddenly drops huge amount in a short time. Such as all the way back to last year. :) :)

Sell now, and pay the taxes, buy back when back to normal prices, remembering that you will have 28% less money to put back in gold. If your gain was less than 28%, you will have less ounces of gold/silver.:mad: Correction, the tax is only on the gain. Thank you Flatiowa. My silver gain is near 100% since it is silver dollars, collected when equal to paper. Not many, but nice gain!

Or sit tight, and still have just as much gold later as you had last month or last year.:)

I am of the sit tight school.:cool:

Just added, out in Colorado years ago, I went to the bank and cashed a check for incidental spending. Cashier asked, metal or paper? I took a pocket full of metal, plus paper for my bill fold, and soon learned why most people preferred paper!
 
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geezer said:
will have 28% less money to put back in gold
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Honest question (I only buy and horde metals), and leave my tax preparations to an expert, but wouldn’t the tax only apply to the difference between purchase and sale price (the gains), not the full sale price? (I could completely understand tax code being written to tax the full sale amount, otherwise without demanding receipts from purchase it would be easy to lie about it, but in priciple it should only apply to the “profit”).
 
Flatiowa said:
Honest question (I only buy and horde metals), and leave my tax preparations to an expert, but wouldn’t the tax only apply to the difference between purchase and sale price (the gains), not the full sale price? (I could completely understand tax code being written to tax the full sale amount, otherwise without demanding receipts from purchase it would be easy to lie about it, but in priciple it should only apply to the “profit”).
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You are correct. The only tax due is on the realized gain on the sale.

This from Gemini:

1. If You Held the Gold for More than One Year (Long-Term Gain)

Your profit is taxed as a Collectibles Capital Gain at a maximum rate of 28%.

• This rate is higher than the standard long-term capital gains rates (which are 0%, 15%, or 20% for most assets like stocks).

• Your actual rate will be your ordinary income tax rate, up to the 28% maximum. For example, if you are in the 15% income tax bracket, you would pay 15% on the gold gain. If you are in the 35% income tax bracket, you would pay the maximum of 28%.

2. If You Held the Gold for One Year or Less (Short-Term Gain)

Your profit is treated as a Short-Term Capital Gain and is taxed at your Ordinary Income Tax Rate.

• This is the same tax rate you pay on your wages or salary, which could be as high as 37% (plus the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax for high earners).
 
Flatiowa said:
I feel like platinum is being forgotten about and will be the dark horse that breaks out of its price slump to become the highest metals gainer for the remaining 4th quarter of 2025.
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Platinum is actually 47% up on the 12mo MA. However, the price ratio with gold is still well below historical averages; gold has ‘dun some crazy chit’ lately. I had a conversation with my PM manager about whether I needed to capitalize on the higher platinum prices or can I afford to sit it out and hold platinum until the trade ratio into gold improves. Since I don’t need the liquidity at the moment, we both agreed it would be best to hold my platinum.
 
I think industrial consumption of platinum over the next 5-25 years will grow exponentially. In my uneducated hillbilly opinion it’s price has been speculatively undervalued as it’s perceived importance as an essential material in automotive catalytic converters has reduced with the increase sales and push for electric vehicles (perceived reduction in consumption). As the electrification of transportation/home heating, cooking, and the huge unpredicted energy load increases to power data super centers to support AI., etc advances (barring no major reversal) the only way for the electrical generating capacity on grid to expand is fuel burning generation plants (the low hanging fruit of renewables have long been picked, nuclear permitting processing, approval, construction, and commissioning can take litterly decades, the only stop gap is LNG power plant construction. With the current emmision requirements in place by law it will require literal tons of platinum for the exhaust stream catalyst systems for each one. It (like copper) is not a short term flip, but a long term hedge for a changing world. Finite resources, changing demands.
 
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Back to electronic currency, I stopped at a small town gas station today, big sign on the door “CASH ONLY”. Their card readers were not working… busy crew from the local internet provider outside, got to talking with the clerk, it’s been down for 7 days today, internet connection to the building is testing out okay, they’ve been waiting for 3 days for an IT guy from texas to get there and figure out why their system won’t work.
 
Flatiowa said:
I think industrial consumption of platinum over the next 5-25 years will grow exponentially. In my uneducated hillbilly opinion it’s price has been speculatively undervalued as it’s perceived importance as an essential material in automotive catalytic converters has reduced with the increase sales and push for electric vehicles (perceived reduction in consumption). As the electrification of transportation/home heating, cooking, and the huge unpredicted energy load increases to power data super centers to support AI., etc advances (barring no major reversal) the only way for the electrical generating capacity on grid to expand is fuel burning generation plants (the low hanging fruit of renewables have long been picked, nuclear permitting processing, approval, construction, and commissioning can take litterly decades, the only stop gap is LNG power plant construction. With the current emmision requirements in place by law it will require literal tons of platinum for the exhaust stream catalyst systems for each one. It (like copper) is not a short term flip, but a long term hedge for a changing world. Finite resources, changing demands.
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Sounds like a learned take to me.
 
geezer said:
If there is a short squeeze here, all the metals will fall back to normal rapidly. Platinum seems to have been left out of the game.:goofy:

Just do not panic if gold suddenly drops huge amount in a short time. Such as all the way back to last year. :) :)

Sell now, and pay the taxes, buy back when back to normal prices, remembering that you will have 28% less money to put back in gold. If your gain was less than 28%, you will have less ounces of gold/silver.:mad: Correction, the tax is only on the gain. Thank you Flatiowa. My silver gain is near 100% since it is silver dollars, collected when equal to paper. Not many, but nice gain!

Or sit tight, and still have just as much gold later as you had last month or last year.:)

I am of the sit tight school.:cool:

Just added, out in Colorado years ago, I went to the bank and cashed a check for incidental spending. Cashier asked, metal or paper? I took a pocket full of metal, plus paper for my bill fold, and soon learned why most people preferred paper!
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I suspect that is because platinum isn't normally categorized as a "monetary metal".
 
172andyou said:
There are currently at least eight crypto coins based on the bitcoin algorithm. As a result all eight can make that claim. And anyone who wants to can create a ninth tomorrow. Or a tenth.

To put it in the terms of Hamilton Helmer's 7 Powers:
  1. Scale Economies: If you make a lot of lemonade, you can do it cheaper than others. It’s like buying lemons in bulk to get a discount.
  2. Network Economies: The more friends you have drinking your lemonade, the more other kids want to join in. Everyone wants to be part of the fun!
  3. Counter Positioning: You have a secret ingredient in your lemonade that others don't. New stands can't easily copy it because it's too different from what they're used to.
  4. Switching Costs: If your friends buy a special cup for your lemonade, they won’t want to switch to another stand because then their cup would be useless.
  5. Branding: Everyone loves your lemonade because it has a super cool name and logo. When kids think of lemonade, they think of you.
  6. Cornered Resource: You have the only special tree that grows the best lemons, so no one else can make lemonade as good as yours.
  7. Process Power: You have a special, super-fast way to make lemonade that no one else knows about, so you can serve it faster and better.
Bitcoin has 2 and 5. It doesn't have the other five powers. But, more importantly, any other crypto using the same algorithm can also have 2 and 5 because neither are technological barriers to entry. They are purely social.

So, the entire point of the seven powers is to build a moat around a business to protect it, but bitcoins only moat is popularity. It is doomed. Speculating when or why it will fail is anybodies guess. But it's inevitable that it will fail since it costs nobody anything to switch to a competing product that is not just similar or can serve the same purpose, but is literally identical.


This is a liability, not a benefit. The fact that the creator(s) haven't cashed in is almost certainly because those early coins are lost. Coins are lost constantly. Since they can't be replaced, this is a liability. In fact, it makes it kind of an interesting speculative question to even say what the market cap of bitcoin is since the number of lost coins can't really be known. But about 20% are in wallets that haven't been used in over a decade and are almost certainly just gone.
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The lack of a creator is what allows bitcoin to be viewed objectively---like it or hate it---it is what it is. If there was a known creator, the "coin" would be prone to any negative association with that person. Coins getting lost only increase the scarcity component. Both are positives for existing bitcoin holders. The concept is fascinating and likely needed as fiat continues to have its mask removed.
 
Flatiowa said:
Silver is down +5% today. I’m strongly considering doing a bone head move and buy the dip.
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I think you are more likely to thank yourself in the next 5 to 10 years.

The lack of a currency with any actual value appears to be taking its toll on many levels.
 
WJG-GMT-RootBeer said:
The lack of a creator is what allows bitcoin to be viewed objectively---like it or hate it---it is what it is. If there was a known creator, the "coin" would be prone to any negative association with that person.
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I thought 'Satoshi Nakamoto' was the creator of bitcoin, back in the 2007-2009 timeframe. His wallet still holds $135 billion or so in bitcoins.

He or she is only known by that pseudonym, and after writing in 2011 that he or she had 'moved on to other things', there has been no contact. No one knows if 'Satoshi' is alive or dead.
 
GaryM said:
I thought 'Satoshi Nakamoto' was the creator of bitcoin, back in the 2007-2009 timeframe. His wallet still holds $135 billion or so in bitcoins.

He or she is only known by that pseudonym, and after writing in 2011 that he or she had 'moved on to other things', there has been no contact. No one knows if 'Satoshi' is alive or dead.
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Does anyone know if Satoshi is a person (as opposed to a group)?
 
GaryM said:
I thought 'Satoshi Nakamoto' was the creator of bitcoin, back in the 2007-2009 timeframe. His wallet still holds $135 billion or so in bitcoins.

He or she is only known by that pseudonym, and after writing in 2011 that he or she had 'moved on to other things', there has been no contact. No one knows if 'Satoshi' is alive or dead.
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I think his point is that not only is it not known who satoshi was, but even if he was a person or a group of people. And somehow that's objectively a good thing.
 
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