I'm sorry... what?

Discussion in 'Flight Following' started by Mtns2Skies, Mar 12, 2021.

  1. Mtns2Skies

    Mtns2Skies En-Route

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2008
    Messages:
    4,446
    Location:
    Wisconsin
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Mtns2Skies
  2. WWFeldman

    WWFeldman Pre-Flight

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2019
    Messages:
    65
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    WWFeldman
    If it was I'd go vacuum out my 172 and take some pictures!
     
    skier and TCABM like this.
  3. asicer

    asicer Final Approach

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Messages:
    6,309
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    asicer
    Someone found out a hedge fund was overexposed shorting. We put together a mass buy to put the squeeze on 152 prices. You gotta get in before you miss out!!! Robin Hood T-a-P might put a halt and/or limit on trading! Buy! Buy! Buy!
     
  4. RyanB

    RyanB Administrator Management Council Member PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2010
    Messages:
    13,059
    Location:
    Chattanooga, TN
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Ryan
  5. TCABM

    TCABM Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2013
    Messages:
    1,796
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    3G
  6. Dan Thomas

    Dan Thomas Final Approach

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2008
    Messages:
    7,324
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Dan Thomas
    You make a lowball offer of, say, $79,000 and they sell it to you. You're convinced that you got a smokin' hot deal.
     
    Tantalum likes this.
  7. Racerx

    Racerx Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    May 15, 2020
    Messages:
    626
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Ernie
    Why did they sink all that money into them and only get flown 20 hours a year?
     
  8. kyleb

    kyleb Final Approach

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2008
    Messages:
    5,973
    Location:
    Marietta, GA
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Drake the Outlaw
    Q: "So, why are you retiring the ambassador fleet?"

    A:"From a practical standpoint, we don't care about about the little guy any longer, so why pretend with these crappy little C-152's? You know, $300k will buy a lot of hookers and blow in DC these days."
     
    Todd82, denverpilot, Pugs and 6 others like this.
  9. Arnold

    Arnold Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2005
    Messages:
    1,214
    Location:
    Philadelphia Area
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Arnold
    "152-reimagined" I don't see much imagination, just a restoration.
     
  10. bflynn

    bflynn Final Approach

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2012
    Messages:
    6,792
    Location:
    KRDU
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Brian Flynn
    They imagined that they were upgrading the plane significantly.

    I wish them luck in selling. There's probably some people out there who want an AOPA airplane, but an old 152 for over 100k? No thanks, I'll get the Mooney.
     
  11. William Pete Hodges

    William Pete Hodges Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2020
    Messages:
    196
    Location:
    Virginia
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Petehdgs
    If I was going to spend that kind of money it wouldn't be for a rebuilt 152. I do realize that a new light sport runs $124-220k and the total refurbishment is a pricey undertaking, but my '64 Mooney has only 2850 total time, 850 SMOH, and more capability for less than half the price. IMHO that is a better use of my money. YMMV
     
  12. AKBill

    AKBill En-Route

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,170
    Location:
    Juneau, AK
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    AKBill
  13. Jim Carpenter

    Jim Carpenter Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2019
    Messages:
    281
    Location:
    Lander, WY
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Jim Carpenter
    You could pay more for a 152 than a Beech Duke.
     
    denverpilot, Jim K and GRG55 like this.
  14. jsstevens

    jsstevens Final Approach PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    May 18, 2007
    Messages:
    5,982
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    jsstevens
    To be fair the 152 would probably fly further. :)
     
    denverpilot and Groundpounder like this.
  15. Larry in TN

    Larry in TN Pattern Altitude

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2013
    Messages:
    1,999
    Location:
    Nashville, TN
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Larry in TN
    Vacuum it AND paint it yellow...
     
    WWFeldman likes this.
  16. GRG55

    GRG55 Final Approach

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2015
    Messages:
    9,307
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Aztec Flyer
    Looks like a Duke in his avatar, so he might be flying one corporately. ;)
     
  17. GRG55

    GRG55 Final Approach

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2015
    Messages:
    9,307
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Aztec Flyer
    These days people seem to be able to flog 172s at ridiculous prices without even that much effort.
     
  18. GRG55

    GRG55 Final Approach

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2015
    Messages:
    9,307
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Aztec Flyer
    The 150/152 looks like it's becoming a bit of a cult following.
    Look at what some people are prepared to pay for a 65 year old 180 Skywagon. :D

    The Aerobat would be a hoot. Seriously, someone could buy all 4 and for 400 AMUs have a very economical fleet to start a flight training operation. The rental rates on the planes for ab initio, commercial time building, IFR and basic aerobatics could be pretty competitive.
     
  19. mondtster

    mondtster En-Route

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,380
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    mondtster
    That, in my opinion, is the target market for these. $400k buys you a new 172 or 4 100% refurbished 152s that would be a good start to a quality flight school.

    Threads like this one pop up from time to time and the response is always the same, because the posters are the same or at a minimum everyone is like minded. This mindset views a repainted and overhauled engine 1963 172 as equivalent to a brand new or completely refurbished 172, except that it isn't. If my experience flying and working on both brand new and antique airplanes is any indicator, I feel there is significant value to a new airplane. That value comes with a large price tag however...

    At the end of the day, the equation remains the same. How much airplane can you afford. Do you want to pay a big price on the front end or buy an average old airplane and have many minor problems that result in a smaller but constant outflow of money and downtime to keep the airplane going?
     
    GRG55 likes this.
  20. GRG55

    GRG55 Final Approach

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2015
    Messages:
    9,307
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Aztec Flyer
    Most people look at this sort of thing and say they would rather buy something else (such as a Mooney) as a personal airplane. Understandable. But that seems a bit apples and oranges.

    The art of running a business is generating a return on capital employed that is higher than the cost of capital. And that cost is, in part, a function of how much capital is sunk into the enterprise. Flight training is hard on airplanes. In the hands of students a $400k new 172 is going to, in relatively short course, be an airplane that starts having minor problems too.
     
  21. SoCal RV Flyer

    SoCal RV Flyer En-Route

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Messages:
    3,014
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    SoCal RV Flyer
    If you look at the entire life cycle (and have some money up front and have time/inclination on your hands), building and flying something like an RV makes a lot of sense, especially if you sell it with a reasonably low-time engine. I'm at 450 hours right now, and will likely sell it in a few years, at which time it will have maybe 750 hrs TTSN on the airframe, engine and prop. I have little doubt that I can make enough to cover the component costs, and as for my time building, those 2.5 years were a ton of fun and incredibly life-affirming. Substitute "fun and challenging hobby" for "labor cost" and you'll see where my mind set lands.

    Not the solution for everyone, I realize.
     
    mondtster likes this.
  22. mondtster

    mondtster En-Route

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,380
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    mondtster
    If you compare price point alone it will appear that you get "a lot more airplane for your money" in an equivalent Mooney or Bonanza. That would sway many private buyers, including myself, if I was looking for a more travel oriented airplane. I would not expect the condition of the Mooney or Bonanza to be the equivalent of these 152s however, which seems to be where a lot of people get lost. I expect a 152 at this price point to be the absolute best money can buy, where the Mooney or Bonanza would be mediocre at best.

    Most folks likely wouldn't see the difference in dispatch reliability because most are flying planes as a recreational endeavor. So not being able to take a trip because an alternator that was on its last leg and failed or the worn out strut is leaking and flat again is an inconvenience and a bummer. To me they are a major annoyance and one I won't accept.

    Indeed. The problems that I am talking about with old airplanes aren't ones that a flight school and students that are hard on planes would induce however. Old airplanes are in varying states of being used up and being a mess due to inept owners and mechanics. When you start with a new airplane those sins largely don't exist.
     
  23. mondtster

    mondtster En-Route

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,380
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    mondtster
    I think that is part of the reason why you're seeing the numbers of kit built airplanes increasing at a significant rate. I'm sure some of it has to do with flying something more "interesting" than a 172 but it is also a great way to get into a new airplane. If a person has the time and money to put into a kit plane they make a lot of sense for an enjoyable ownership experience. And the subsequent buyer should also have a positive one.

    I've never really tracked the RVs, do you have any idea how much time some of the higher time airframes have on them? How are they doing as they age? There's obviously some variability with builder and maintainer skill level but I'd imagine one could get a general idea.
     
  24. 6t6

    6t6 Pre-Flight

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2016
    Messages:
    98
    Location:
    Somewhere North
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    North Bound
  25. Dan Thomas

    Dan Thomas Final Approach

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2008
    Messages:
    7,324
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Dan Thomas
    Yes, you might get that older Mooney for less than that overpriced 152, but that's where the cost advantages stop. You'll have retractable gear, constant-speed prop, and a bigger engine, all of which add to maintenance costs.

    Insurance will cost more for a retract, too.

    I've had the unhappy experience of dealing with owners who bought complex airplanes for really attractive prices, only to discover that they couldn't afford to keep them.

    Remember that maintenance costs aren't based on the age or size of the airplane. Old airplanes can be all sorts of expensive fun.
     
    DenverDave likes this.
  26. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2009
    Messages:
    55,148
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    DenverPilot
    I had no idea renting a 152 for $200/hr wet was an indication of quality instruction. Lol
     
  27. mondtster

    mondtster En-Route

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,380
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    mondtster
    Where does purchase price dictate hourly rate? For that matter, I’d love to hear how the experts here figure an hourly rate in a school setting.
     
  28. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2007
    Messages:
    18,575
    Location:
    PUDBY
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Richard Palm
    denverpilot likes this.
  29. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2009
    Messages:
    55,148
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    DenverPilot
    Usually a written P&L that includes all costs like most businesses?

    Any of us that own them know the round numbers. Not that difficult to predict.
     
  30. GRG55

    GRG55 Final Approach

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2015
    Messages:
    9,307
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Aztec Flyer
    I'm on the Board of our Flying Club. Our flight training unit currently has 12 x 172s, two Senecas and a Citabria in the training fleet. We typically fly 1000 to 1200 hours per month in the winter and that rises to 1700 to 1800 hours per month in the June to September season.

    You can bet that the capital investment (book value) of the asset is one of the factors that drives what we charge per hour. The bulk of our 172s are 'N' models, and we spend a healthy amount on refurbishment and avionics upgrades on our 172s, including GTN 650s and G5s. So far we have resisted the allure of upgrading to 'S' or G1000 'T' models like some of our regional competitors have. Most aviation students are in the price sensitive cohort. Our hourly rates and the total cost of earning a rating at our FTU is measurably less as a result.
     
    TCABM likes this.
  31. wheaties

    wheaties Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2019
    Messages:
    252
    Location:
    NJ
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    wheaties
    That's how much the G1000 WAAS 172 at my flying club rents for. We're right outside NYC, too. I don’t think you're getting a good deal.
     
  32. mondtster

    mondtster En-Route

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,380
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    mondtster
    I’m well aware. My point is, I’ve never seen an instance where there is a real correlation between asset cost and hourly rate at a flight school. For just one example, the FBO I learned to fly at rented 2 year old 172SP airplanes at $5 more than the guy at the other end of the airport that rented the typical clapped out garbage you usually see. Who do you think got more business? The outfit with the nice planes or the other guy?

    I probably have more inside information on flight schools than many posters here and all I can say is it is a strange business. The primary factor on hourly rates seems to be what the other rental options within an area are charging rather than actual costs.
     
    Walboy likes this.
  33. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2007
    Messages:
    18,575
    Location:
    PUDBY
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Richard Palm
    The club's rates are comparable to the other rental operations on the field. Palo Alto Airport is not known for bargain prices!
     
  34. BillTIZ

    BillTIZ Final Approach

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2008
    Messages:
    5,210
    Location:
    ASH, 3B3
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    BTIZ
    Its probably already been said but:

    Wife says to sell the plane.
    Hunny, it's listed but nobody is buying.
     
    ArnoldPalmer and DMD3. like this.
  35. DMD3.

    DMD3. Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2014
    Messages:
    275
    Location:
    Tifton, Ga
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    DMD3.
    Don’t forget the price of J3 Cubs. They’re like collector’s items (to some people).
     
  36. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2009
    Messages:
    55,148
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    DenverPilot
    Oh. You were just saying half of them are going broke and headed for the bankruptcy car wash. Ha. Agreed.

    Keeping money on deposit at a flight school is about as dumb as going on a date with Cosby. LOL
     
    GRG55 likes this.
  37. Ryan F.

    Ryan F. Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2016
    Messages:
    1,145
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Ryan Ferguson 1974
    The concept behind the "Re-imagined" Cessna 152's potential success hinged on the possibility of convincing the public that an old airframe could be stripped, disassembled, cleaned, put back together again with new hardware, and essentially returned to zero time with at least "another lifetime" left in the future hours bank.

    With AOPA and Aviat's names thrown into the hat, that possibility was real. May still be. But in the cold light of day an honest listing will show, and in this case does show an aircraft with 14,000 hours total time on the airframe. A buyer will have to reconcile the fact that his or her purchase will result in the same consideration when the aircraft is sold at some point in the future, perhaps when the paint isn't as fresh and the avionics need replacement. How much will it be worth at that point? Quite a few lower time Cessna 152s will be on the market, also without fresh paint or modern avionics, and any potential buyers will weigh the "re-imagination" against "no creative thought process needed to value this aircraft."

    Tough value proposition there. But, the jury's out. Maybe these airplanes will sell for at or near asking prices, especially with the market in its present condition, and perhaps that value will be preserved when they're sold down the line to the next owners.

    I wouldn't be brimming with optimism over that possibility, personally. But it is a possibility.
     
  38. asicer

    asicer Final Approach

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Messages:
    6,309
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    asicer
    I can just picture a prospective student asking "Is that a lot?"
     
  39. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2009
    Messages:
    55,148
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    DenverPilot
    Less than a year in the air. LOL
     
  40. kyleb

    kyleb Final Approach

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2008
    Messages:
    5,973
    Location:
    Marietta, GA
    Display Name:

    Display name:
    Drake the Outlaw
    I find it bizarre that they refurbed a 14K hour airframe. WTF?