I voted today

[SoCal RV Flyer]

The guy has tons of people from all ethnic and national groups working in his hotels around the world.

Sure, when it suits the bottom line. Heck, he'll even bring them in at the expense of American jobs if he can pay them less. He employs many Chinese to provide steel for his buildings and make Trump ties, taking jobs away from Americans. He sees everything through the lens of a businessman (and some opine, not a very good one)...not a lot of empathy/compassion in his soul, IMO, a necessary element of being the leader of the free world.

Even naturalized immigrants have a problem with ILLEGAL immigrants.

No argument there whatsoever. The answer lies somewhere between amnesty and AK-47-toting deportation squads. We need to work toward a solution, but not at the expense of tearing every family apart.

 

[James331]

I am going to take a guess here, and guess that you have never taken an advanced math class or a Statistics class?? You don't do polls to get "whatever you want". You do polls to get a sample (xxx respondents) that will accurately predict what the population (xxx,xxx,xxx will do.)

There is ZERO reason for a pollster(reputable) to try and get an answer that isn't accurate. Now, how accurate they get is up to their methodology, but they should strive (normally) for accuracy.

Math. It works.

Because the networks don't have a bias, like a dump trucks of cash time warner has poured into Clinton, and finding a biased poll would be way beyond their "ethics" eh?

 

[JoseCuervo]

Any chance your party panders to groups and keeps them dependent while blaming the other party?

You mean pandering to women? Pretty sure one party will be taking most women voters, by a large majority today. Whilst another party has declared a War on Women, tough way to get their support. I have known a lot of women over the years, and declaring War on them has never been a good way to get their support.

 

[James331]

Aren't most on "welfare", relying on government entitlements actually over 65 years old? I believe Social Security and Medicare are the two biggest ticket items, non-defense.

Social security is paid into every check.

 

[ircphoenix]

First of all, don't go into full ******** mode.* You have a good job and will support your family exclusive of the government dole. I'm not talking about you. Second, procreate all you want but take responsibility for your own children and don't expect the taxpayers to do it for you. Third, are you saying that your ancestors would not have had you had they not been in the United States?


* don't get offended for ircphoenix - we are friends- he was being facetious and I responded in kind. The blocked-out word rhymes with thick head.

First of all, don't tell me what mode I can go into. I either have full ******** mode or half ******** mode. Either way that's pretty much my full range of modes, and I'm insulted that you're assuming my ******** identity.

Second, don't tell me to procreate all I want. I want to NOT procreate. Kids are a nightmare. I'm good with my dog. But if I *did* have kids, it'd be WAY cheaper to let the government do it than for me to have to do it myself.

Third, I'd say that my mom is from here and my dad was an illegal immigrant from Mexico that was smuggled across the border by a coyote. So I *literally* would not exist if it weren't for illegal immigration. LoL.

***the above was meant in kind to @Timbeck2. If it weren't for joking with him, I'd never have anything fun to do to amuse myself. Except the third part. The third part is actually totally true.

 

[JoseCuervo]

The guy has tons of people from all ethnic and national groups working in his hotels around the world, heck the dudes wife is a immigrant.

Again, show me where the man said he doesn't like immigrants? He has a problem with ILLEGAL immigrants.

Pretty sure he has a problem with MUSLIM immigrants, migrants, citizens, and tourists. He originally proposed BANNING all Muslims from entering the country.

Yeah, he didn't care about their documentation status, only about what method of praying to God they practiced.

 

[JoseCuervo]

Even naturalized immigrants have a problem with ILLEGAL immigrants.

And lots of citizens have ZERO problems with undocumented immigrants. In fact, many citizens rely on undocumented immigrants.

 

[JoseCuervo]

Because the networks don't have a bias, like a dump trucks of cash time warner has poured into Clinton, and finding a biased poll would be way beyond their "ethics" eh?

What is a "biased poll"? A poll is either accurate, or inaccurate. By midnight tonight, you will find out which polls were accurate in predicting the elections, and which ones were innaccurate.

Pollsters will be ranked (538.com will do it), and the bad pollsters will be exposed. The accurate pollsters will be celebrated and hired for the next polling cycle.

There is no reason for a pollster to have "bias", when their future jobs are on the line. (There are pollsters that have routine "house effects", like Rasmussen that always is a bit "pro-Republican", but that is easily adjusted by using MATH, and will make their pollling accurate, after a systematic adjustment.)

Again, "bias" in polling makes no sense.

 

[JoseCuervo]

Social security is paid into every check.

Still a government check that they rely on me to fund.

 

[Cooter]

I am going to take a guess here, and guess that you have never taken an advanced math class or a Statistics class?? You don't do polls to get "whatever you want". You do polls to get a sample (xxx respondents) that will accurately predict what the population (xxx,xxx,xxx will do.)

There is ZERO reason for a pollster(reputable) to try and get an answer that isn't accurate. Now, how accurate they get is up to their methodology, but they should strive (normally) for accuracy.

Math. It works.

I am enjoying the discussion, but this is just not an informed comment. Polling involves sampling and predictions. Polls are certainly used for political purposes. It is very easy to determine the outcome of a poll by altering the sample percentages. There is a reason they ask you for your age, sex, ethnicity etc. Weren't you the one who was speaking of demographics earlier?

 

[James331]

Sure, when it suits the bottom line. Heck, he'll even bring them in at the expense of American jobs if he can pay them less. He employs many Chinese to provide steel for his buildings and make Trump ties, taking jobs away from Americans. He sees everything through the lens of a businessman (and some opine, not a very good one)...not a lot of empathy/compassion in his soul, IMO, a necessary element of being the leader of the free world.

BINGO, and that's your problem right there, we aren't the "leader" of the world, world police, or any of that other nonsense, heck if someone wants in invoke a hitler, he had dreams of running the world too.

What we need is a government which will focus inwards and fix our problems without meddling in other countries business.

Also our biggest issue is the economy, a buesiness man is needed much more than a power crazed politician, many of our problems stem from the economic issues, lack of jobs, to everything from inner city drugs and violence, to inflation etc.

No argument there whatsoever. The answer lies somewhere between amnesty and AK-47-toting deportation squads. We need to work toward a solution, but not at the expense of tearing every family apart.

Tearing families apart?

Should have thought about that before you broke the law,

Would you give the same free pass to car thieves?
people making drugs to help pay for their family expenses?
folks who don't pay taxes because they can't afford them?


Deportation squads...no... not a good idea or a practical one

But if you're pulled over and can't speak English, I'd say that should give cause to ask for a visitors visa, if you don't have one you should be arrested, because to be a citizen you need to be able to speak English, if you can't speak English you must be a tourist, and thus should have your passport and visa, I know I carried mine while outside the states.

Eliminate foreign language on everything outside of international airports and the like.

If you're caught being here illegally you get deported and banned from citizenship, second time chain gang.

Harden the boarder, and take a boarder security stance like Israel and other countries.


That would make a big difference

 

[JoseCuervo]

I am enjoying the discussion, but this is just not an informed comment. Polling involves sampling and predictions. Polls Are also used for political purposes. It is very easy to determine the outcome of a poll by altering the sample percentages.

Who wants to determine the outcome of a poll????? That makes no sense.

The purpose of the poll (in the topic at hand) is to PREDICT the outcome of the election.

If I manipulated a poll to show Gary Johnson wins tonight with 60% of the vote, to Trumps 20%, Hillary's 10%, and Jill Stein's 8%, what value would that have??? Would I be considered a good pollster by the Johnson supporters?? Despite it being a LOUSY predictor of the election?

I would think I would be laughed at by anybody who knows MATH.

 

[Timbeck2]

Said the guy whose ancestors immigrated to the US.

When his (and my) ancestors immigrated to the US, it was for other purposes one of which was to escape religious persecution. Then they got into a few scraps with the homeland and we became our own country. Then they made laws which made it illegal to just squat on US soil without the naturalization process. So when our ancestors immigrated to this country, they didn't break any laws in doing so. Its different now and quite frankly, I'm tired of that old argument of "we're ALL immigrants" being trotted out every time the subject of illegal immigration comes up. I grew up poor in rural Arkansas. I wore hand me down clothes from my cousins and I wore $4 Kmart shoes to play basketball in because I couldn't afford the $12 (yes, that's how much they cost back then) Converse All Stars. I grew in a farming community and learned to drive a tractor when my legs were long enough to reach the pedals. I then started buying my own clothes and Converse tennis shoes. My family taught me the value of a dollar and not to expect a hand out from anyone. I put myself through college largely through the tuition assistance I received from the Air Force.

So If you're willing to put an illegal family or two up in YOUR house and support them, be my guest. If you want to spend $50 for your favorite fast food heart attack in a sack then lets raise the minimum wage because we ALL know that McDonald's is a career. It irks me that the government thinks its okay to take the money that I've earned through hard work and give it to someone who's ambition in life is to live off the money that the government extorts from me.

 

[SoCal RV Flyer]

Also our biggest issue is the economy, a buesiness man is needed much more than a power crazed politician, many of our problems stem from the economic issues, lack of jobs, to everything from inner city drugs and violence, to inflation etc.

Yeah, but he's a very flawed businessman...probably worth a fraction of what he claims he's worth. It'd be a cruel blow to his ego to release his taxes so the truth would be known. Didn't have the cojones to even ask the Mexican president about paying for the wall when he met for his "photo op." It's one thing to make a real estate deal and build a skyscraper when you're calling all the shots; quite another to work in the confines of government to get things accomplished, especially considering all the bridges he's burned within his own party. Repackaged trickle-down economics has failed in the past and would fail again under the Orange One.

G'night. I'm going to make some popcorn and watch the election coverage...cycling back and forth between Fox and CNN for the full unbiased picture, of course!

 

[Everskyward]

Stop taking the other side's bait. Remember, no partisan bashing, not even tonight.

 

[Cooter]

Who wants to determine the outcome of a poll????? That makes no sense.

The purpose of the poll (in the topic at hand) is to PREDICT the outcome of the election.

If I manipulated a poll to show Gary Johnson wins tonight with 60% of the vote, to Trumps 20%, Hillary's 10%, and Jill Stein's 8%, what value would that have??? Would I be considered a good pollster by the Johnson supporters?? Despite it being a LOUSY predictor of the election?

I would think I would be laughed at by anybody who knows MATH.

I'm sure you are a nice guy, but you are terribly naive. If you think the political game is played with a straight hand and no biases or other motivations, then I really don't know what else to say.

Except this....People are involved in politics to win. If you think that polling somehow exists outside of the realm of politics and remains pristine in its objectivity, you do not understand the process that you are allowed to take part in.

 

[DaleB]

Who wants to determine the outcome of a poll????? That makes no sense.

The purpose of the poll (in the topic at hand) is to PREDICT the outcome of the election.

If I manipulated a poll to show Gary Johnson wins tonight with 60% of the vote, to Trumps 20%, Hillary's 10%, and Jill Stein's 8%, what value would that have??? Would I be considered a good pollster by the Johnson supporters?? Despite it being a LOUSY predictor of the election?

I would think I would be laughed at by anybody who knows MATH.

I believe you are absolutely right, and completely wrong at the same time. In theory, polls are used exactly as you describe. In practice, the vast majority of political "polls" are to mathematics as prostitutes are to marriage.

Math has nothing to do with it; we're talking about political campaigns here. In the example above, you would have been hired by Johnson's campaign (assuming they can stop smoking dope long enough to write the check) to produce a poll that showed him winning, in an effort to convince more people that he has a chance of winning. That encourages votes, and campaign contributions. You'll get tons of business next time around, because campaign managers know they can count on you to produce the desired results without being hindered by something as trivial and inconvenient as facts.

We get half a dozen calls each and every day for so-called "polls". They have nothing to do with mathematically predicting the outcome of the election, and everything to do with trying to influence the outcome of the election. It's so transparent it's painful. During an election season, which is getting to be more and more like "basketball season" in that it never seems to end, I refuse to answer a call if I don't recognize the caller ID.

 

[Timbeck2]

Aren't most on "welfare", relying on government entitlements actually over 65 years old? I believe Social Security and Medicare are the two biggest ticket items, non-defense.

I'll go out on a very short limb here and suggest that most people over 65 worked and paid into the social security and medicare, not welfare, system and are now reaping the benefits of their work; just like you and I will if the program lasts that long. I'll also go as far to say that those who are 65 now worked a hell of a lot harder than I do today. I get a government check every month too. Its called a retirement check and I earned it by raising my right hand and saying that I'm willing to go to any armpit of the world at any time. They took me up on that pledge more than a few times. Don't be so obtuse to group social security, medicare into the same group as people who's only contribution to our society is being a statistic.

 

[JoseCuervo]

I'm sure you are a nice guy, but you are terribly naive. If you think the political game is played with a straight hand and no biases or other motivations, then I really don't know what else to say.

Except this....People are involved in politics to win. If you think that polling somehow exists outside of the realm of politics and remains pristine in its objectivity, you do not understand the process that you are allowed to take part in.

Again, what is the reason a reputable pollster would try and have a biased poll?

The good ones show their data, their cross tabs, and then you can see their accuracy.

Question: If you were to hire a pollster, would you want an accurate one or a biased one?



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[DaleB]

Again, what is the reason a reputable pollster would try and have a biased poll?

The good ones show their data, their cross tabs, and then you can see their accuracy.

Question: If you were to hire a pollster, would you want an accurate one or a biased one?

If I'm a campaign manager, I want the pollster to deliver the numbers I'm paying him to deliver.

 

[rpadula]

What were we talking about again? Oh yes, I voted today too.

My one amendment to the procedures would be that as soon as your term is up, you go directly to prison for the same amount of time. Only seems fair...

 

[Everskyward]

Not all polls are created equal. Some are done by partisans disguised as pollsters. I don't answer my phone if I don't recognize the ID or the number. If someone really wants to talk, they can leave a message. Haven't answered a political poll one.

 

[ircphoenix]

Here's the best example of polling saying what you want it to say:

If you ask people about support of obamacare, an overwhelming number say they oppose it.

If you ask people about the individual components of Obamacare, the numbers flip flop.

So if you want the poll to say people hate Obamacare, then you go with the first question. If you want the poll to say people love the provisions of Obamacare, then you go with the second.

If the poll questions are well structured and the methodology is solid, then the statistics cannot be argued with. The devil is in the poll questions.

 

[DaleB]

I'm sure there are unbiased, ethical polls out there. I've never actually experienced such a thing. I have noticed blatant, transparent "push poll" types of questions in every single political poll for which I have ever been interviewed... and as a result I trust the accuracy and lack of bias of exactly none of them.

 

[JoseCuervo]

I believe you are absolutely right, and completely wrong at the same time. In theory, polls are used exactly as you describe. In practice, the vast majority of political "polls" are to mathematics as prostitutes are to marriage.

Math has nothing to do with it; we're talking about political campaigns here. In the example above, you would have been hired by Johnson's campaign (assuming they can stop smoking dope long enough to write the check) to produce a poll that showed him winning, in an effort to convince more people that he has a chance of winning. That encourages votes, and campaign contributions. You'll get tons of business next time around, because campaign managers know they can count on you to produce the desired results without being hindered by something as trivial and inconvenient as facts.

We get half a dozen calls each and every day for so-called "polls". They have nothing to do with mathematically predicting the outcome of the election, and everything to do with trying to influence the outcome of the election. It's so transparent it's painful. During an election season, which is getting to be more and more like "basketball season" in that it never seems to end, I refuse to answer a call if I don't recognize the caller ID.

Again, who would want to spend $$$$ on bad polling data?

For an internal poll, bad data would tell a candidate to spend money in the wrong place, or for the wrong group, or just the opposite, not spend money in the right place or with the right group. That is just crazy that a candidate would hire a polling company that gave them an inaccurate picture of the real world. (Not saying there aren't egomaniacs who would do that, but it makes no sense).

And, for news organizations, once you get past the AM radio conspiracy theories, there is no reason for people to hire bad polling firms. An example is the LA Times / USC poll this year. They are using a questionable methodology and their poll has been a consistent outlier all year.

Tonight, we will find out if their method was accurate or crazy. And whom ever funded it can decide if it was a good investment or not. If it was consistently an error, I am guessing nobody hires that methodology next time.

Math. It works.


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[JoseCuervo]

If I'm a campaign manager, I want the pollster to deliver the numbers I'm paying him to deliver.

For what purpose?

You want them to over inflate your candidates possible finish or under report?

Why would you allocate scarce resources based on bad data? That is irrational, and likely would hinder your ability to get work in the future, based on hiring inaccurate pollsters and then spending money wrongly.


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[ircphoenix]

For what purpose?

You want them to over inflate your candidates possible finish or under report?

Why would you allocate scarce resources based on bad data? That is irrational, and likely would hinder your ability to get work in the future, based on hiring inaccurate pollsters and then spending money wrongly.

No. You want your internal polling to be accurate. But you may commission a report to release to the public which supports your assertions.

 

[paflyer]

Who wants to determine the outcome of a poll????? That makes no sense.

The purpose of the poll (in the topic at hand) is to PREDICT the outcome of the election.

If I manipulated a poll to show Gary Johnson wins tonight with 60% of the vote, to Trumps 20%, Hillary's 10%, and Jill Stein's 8%, what value would that have??? Would I be considered a good pollster by the Johnson supporters?? Despite it being a LOUSY predictor of the election?

I would think I would be laughed at by anybody who knows MATH.

The Leftist media uses their biased (if not completely fraudulent) polls to influence behavior, and therefore outcomes.

 

[paflyer]

I'll go out on a very short limb here and suggest that most people over 65 worked and paid into the social security and medicare, not welfare, system and are now reaping the benefits of their work; just like you and I will if the program lasts that long. I'll also go as far to say that those who are 65 now worked a hell of a lot harder than I do today. I get a government check every month too. Its called a retirement check and I earned it by raising my right hand and saying that I'm willing to go to any armpit of the world at any time. They took me up on that pledge more than a few times. Don't be so obtuse to group social security, medicare into the same group as people who's only contribution to our society is being a statistic.

Leftists like Jose are not intellectually honest. They can't be- that is counter to leftism.

 

[Mason]

Aren't most on "welfare", relying on government entitlements actually over 65 years old? I believe Social Security and Medicare are the two biggest ticket items, non-defense.

Those are not welfare. They were earned over a lifetime of working and paying taxes. Which the beneficiaries had no choice in and did not contribute to the ponzi nature of it at all.

 

[Everskyward]

Leftists like Jose are not intellectually honest. They can't be- that is counter to leftism.

Let's refrain from attacks like this...

 

[paflyer]

Once there was a guy named Hitler who, to put it mildly, shunned any kind of ethnic diversity. It didn't turn out well.



Pried the nail out.

Ah, the Hitler Card.... You people point to Socialist places like Scandinavia as a paradise, with huge tax burdens but everyone gets "free" ****. You don't know how homogeneous those cultures have been. Until very recently, with the Muslim invasion, there was NO diversity, and that's why they work.

 

[paflyer]

Sure, when it suits the bottom line. Heck, he'll even bring them in at the expense of American jobs if he can pay them less. He employs many Chinese to provide steel for his buildings and make Trump ties, taking jobs away from Americans. He sees everything through the lens of a businessman (and some opine, not a very good one)...not a lot of empathy/compassion in his soul, IMO, a necessary element of being the leader of the free world.

No argument there whatsoever. The answer lies somewhere between amnesty and AK-47-toting deportation squads. We need to work toward a solution, but not at the expense of tearing every family apart.

LMAO, Hillary is evil to the core; where's her empathy/compassion? She called at least 25% of the country un-redeemable.

 

[Timbeck2]

And lots of citizens have ZERO problems with undocumented immigrants. In fact, many citizens rely on undocumented immigrants.

Undocumented immigrants? They're ILLEGAL immigrants that lack the documents proving that they are legal to be here. Please give me an example of how "many citizens rely on [illegal] immigrants."

 

[JoseCuervo]

I'm sure there are unbiased, ethical polls out there. I've never actually experienced such a thing. I have noticed blatant, transparent "push poll" types of questions in every single political poll for which I have ever been interviewed... and as a result I trust the accuracy and lack of bias of exactly none of them.

You will be able to identify them tonight.

The unbiased ones will have predicted the outcome with reasonable accuracy.

The biased ones will be wrong.

It is just math.


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[JoseCuervo]

No. You want your internal polling to be accurate. But you may commission a report to release to the public which supports your assertions.

Exactly. The pollster is paid to be accurate.

Marketing can spin what ever they want.


Math. It works.


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[Everskyward]

Closed, pending MC review. You were warned. Go find a political forum.