GA Boom or Bust

Met a guy who bought a new Cirrus recently and he was amazed when I told him that for what he spent on his new plane that I can buy a Yak 52, Bonanza V35 and have cash left over for a nice airpark home with a big fat hangar to keep them and cash for fuel and maintenance.
 
cowman said:
According to wikipedia, in 1956 a new Cessna 172 would have cost $8,700.

According to this inflation calculator I found online, adjust for inflation that would be about $76,000. Imagine how many new 172s Cessna would sell if they could offer them for $76,000. Imagine how cheap an 80s or 90s vintage 172 would be if a new one was only $76k.

An airplane capable of carrying a family of four across the country is just plain unaffordable to most. For those that can afford it, it's still a huge expense for most... hard to justify that to a spouse or even yourself if there are other bills to pay.
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This times 1000 too! I've argued this very concept with many people that things today are relatively way more expensive than at any time. The average new Cessna is about 175,000 dollars today. That's essentially 3 and a half times the annual salary of the average American worker( let's just assume that number is 50,000- it's actually 53,000.) Back in 1956 according to the info I could find the average Amaerican made 3,500. So a brand new plane was essentially, 2 and a half times the average annual salary. Coupled with the insanely out of whack cost of higher education( and incredible obsticle to generating wealth for younger people), and this disproportionately out of control cost of houses in many areas of the country, and people wonder why this generation( my generation of 30 somethings) seems to be less interested in GA type hobbies. It's not that anyone is less interessted( as those who blame us often say we are) it's simply never been economically harder to get ahead in the last 75 years of this nations history. I studied history in college and I believe that my generation, will be the first generation in American history to not surpass their parents in most cases. It's not for a lack of drive, it's simply absurdly difficult and many middle class families, which are slowly being regulated to death and will join the ever growing lower class, can't afford to spend any income because they have so much debt even before starting out in life, thanks to 50,000 a year college tuitions many stupidly fork over.

GA's decline is a bi-product of this reality.
 
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Manderson said:
Call me pessimistic, but I think at least a little bit of the allure of aviation is dying away with the younger generation because it involves a lot of hard work and study, and in the US, that's just not valued anymore.

On the other hand, I also don't think GA will very really die away because there will always be people that look to the sky and dream big.
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I agree with all of this. I believe younger people have been lured into virtual adventure, and entertainment where there is no risk, but sensory reward. Of course it isn't as meaningful as hard work, study, managed risk, and the inner reward of self sacrifice, and accomplisment that builds character.

The youth of today have been sold the false belief that they can be "empowered" by others while in reality it comes from within. I don't get it.
 
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Sundancer said:
I've heard (but can't confirm) that there haven't been individual builders getting hammered in civil litigation on planes they built and latter sold.
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We have a society that bases their decisions on unfounded fears, not realities. I have yet to hear of one case.
 
jspilot said:
This times 1000 too! I've argued this very concept with many people that things today are relatively way more expensive than at any time. The average new Cessna is about 175,000 dollars today. That's essentially 3 and a half times the annual salary of the average American worker . . .
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A new 172 is well over $300K these days. That makes the purchase 6X's the average annual salary.


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Anthony said:
I agree with all of this. I believe younger people have been lured into virtual adventure, and entertainment where there is no risk, but sensory reward. Of course it isn't as meaningful as hard work, study, managed risk, and the inner reward of self sacrifice, and accomplisment that builds character.

The youth of today have been sold the false belief that they can be "empowered" by others while in reality it comes from within. I don't get it.
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Wow, talk about a curmudgeon! There are many "fun" things to do which are a lot less expensive for young people to do than learning to fly. What's more, many of the "fun" things which attract young people (and even older people) to flying, are frowned upon as being risky. There's a fine line between the fun factor and staying safe.
 
kyleb said:
The reality is that GA is on a long term decline because little airplanes are no longer sexy to most adults with discretionary income. Aviation hasn't been sexy since the days of the Apollo program, so most of today's sub-50 crowd doesn't give a rip. They would rather have a vacation house at the beach.

The economy? Heck if I know. I would have predicted cheap oil would have stimulated the other 90% (or whatever) of the economy, but it sure doesn't seem that way.
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BS.

I had more students and discovery flight than I new what to do with at my old school.

Selling flying is like selling drugs, the only reason I wasn't able to close nearly every prospect was just the cost, never did I ever have someone come down from a discovery flight and be like "meh, wasn't that fun, think I'll stick to golf".

I don't see GA going anywhere so long as we don't allow the Feds to turn us into some euro chit show airspace wise. Letting them force ADSB down our trouts didn't help.
 
I used to think it was because there were no women around for a draw. Now I think it is simply a lack of alcohol compatibility. Hey maybe the lack of alcohol keeps the women away? Causation circle anyone? Stone sober hobbies have no future.:lol:
 
FastEddieB said:
And yet, Cirrus has sold how many thousands of aircraft over the last 15 years or so?

Maybe you just run with the wrong crowd! ;)
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True, I don't tend to hang with uber-rich people. We have too little in common to make decent conversation.

When we were based in Port A, with all the billionaires, on the rare occasion that we saw any of them they were usually being whisked away by their drivers after deplaning from their Citations. We got some odd looks, and awkward waves, as we sat in lawn chairs drinking beer in front of our homebuilt plane.

It is strange, though, that I can't think of a single "new plane owner", Cirrus or otherwise, who has participated in ANY of the piloting groups I've been in, in three different states, since ~1999. I guess uber-rich people don't hang out with us airport bums.
 
Henning said:
We have a society that bases their decisions on unfounded fears, not realities. I have yet to hear of one case.
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The guy who busted up his RV because of liability fears has been written off as a whack-job by every homebuilder I have spoken with about this. Talk on the street is that he knew he built a POS, and for that reason feared selling it.
 
Phoenix said:
I used to think it was because there were no women around for a draw. Now I think it is simply a lack of alcohol compatibility. Hey maybe the lack of alcohol keeps the women away? Causation circle anyone? Stone sober hobbies have no future.
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Where the hell do you fly where the pilots are stone sober??

It's open bar at our hangar, pretty much every day. :)
 
Jay Honeck said:
It is strange, though, that I can't think of a single "new plane owner", Cirrus or otherwise, who has participated in ANY of the piloting groups I've been in, in three different states, since ~1999. I guess uber-rich people don't hang out with us airport bums.
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Why do they fly? If they bought the travel dream hanging out at the airport is the same as hanging out at a train station. If dynamic flying is what they want vanilla GA municipal airports are not the place to get it. Playing mutual appreciation games with airplanes is too expensive for most people, as I've said before anything less then a polished P-51 can be upstaged by something more expensive/shinier landing at any moment.
 
Phoenix said:
Why do they fly? If they bought the travel dream hanging out at the airport is the same as hanging out at a train station. If dynamic flying is what they want vanilla GA municipal airports are not the place to get it. Playing mutual appreciation games with airplanes is too expensive for most people, as I've said before anything less then a polished P-51 can be upstaged by something more expensive/shinier landing at any moment.
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What do mean by "dynamic flying"?
 
Jay Honeck said:
Where the hell do you fly where the pilots are stone sober??

It's open bar at our hangar, pretty much every day. :)
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After, that is no fun. People want to drink and recreate at the same time. Drink a beer, take the jetski for a spin, drink another beer, repeat.
 
Jay Honeck said:
True, I don't tend to hang with uber-rich people.


I guess uber-rich people don't hang out with us airport bums.
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Lot of truth to that. Far more fun to leave the airport ASAP after arrival and enjoy the reason you made the trip on business, vacation, or family.


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Phoenix said:
After, that is no fun. People want to drink and recreate at the same time. Drink a beer, take the jetski for a spin, drink another beer, repeat.
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People also want to have fun in groups of 4-20. Flying does not lend itself to that. Most fun flights I have been on we're in the back of a private jet with 4-6 buddies, drinking beer on the way to basketball games.


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Jay Honeck said:
The guy who busted up his RV because of liability fears has been written off as a whack-job by every homebuilder I have spoken with about this. Talk on the street is that he knew he built a POS, and for that reason feared selling it.
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This makes more sense.

How are one's heirs liable for anything? :dunno:
 
Everskyward said:
Wow, talk about a curmudgeon! There are many "fun" things to do which are a lot less expensive for young people to do than learning to fly. What's more, many of the "fun" things which attract young people (and even older people) to flying, are frowned upon as being risky. There's a fine line between the fun factor and staying safe.
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harump. I think we have different views of "curmudgeon".

Anyway, the risk/safe thing doesn't explain why so many kids do stupid stupid stunts with bikes, skateboards, motorcycles etc. And I'm not talking about the running with scissors type of nanny safety stuff.
 
Everskyward said:
Wow, talk about a curmudgeon!
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Is that a personal attack? LOL! :D

There are many "fun" things to do which are a lot less expensive for young people to do than learning to fly. What's more, many of the "fun" things which attract young people (and even older people) to flying, are frowned upon as being risky. There's a fine line between the fun factor and staying safe.
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No question there are less expensive things to do, but my perception is that younger people are defaulting to technology for their recreation, and less the outdoors, hunting, fishing, camping, hiking, etc, which are all not that expensive. Flying is another outdoor activity, and yes it is expensive, with a lot of hurdles.
 
Anthony said:
Is that a personal attack? LOL! :D



No question there are less expensive things to do, but my perception is that younger people are defaulting to technology for their recreation, and less the outdoors, hunting, fishing, camping, hiking, etc, which are all not that expensive. Flying is another outdoor activity, and yes it is expensive, with a lot of hurdles.
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I went hunting a fishing a few times when I was younger. I thought it was like watching paint dry. I also decided I didn't want to kill stuff even if I was going to eat it. Note that this is not an anti-hunting rant. It's a personal choice. I like hiking, but at least with hiking you don't need to keep quiet and be still...
 
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Bob Noel said:
harump. I think we have different views of "curmudgeon".

Anyway, the risk/safe thing doesn't explain why so many kids do stupid stupid stunts with bikes, skateboards, motorcycles etc. And I'm not talking about the running with scissors type of nanny safety stuff.
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What I'm saying is that the adrenaline aspect is what would draw many young people to flying. Then they realize that safety, procedures, and regulations are the rule and and most of the fun stuff is verboten.
 
Dunno. Kitesurfing and Mountain biking seem to be doing alright. Mountain biking of course has chicks, alcohol, large groups of people, risk, but fun risk, not dying in a fireball risk. And can be done on sliding scale of $ from couple hundred bucks to as much as you want to spend. The kids are alright, aviation is boring and broken.
 
JoseCuervo said:
Lot of truth to that. Far more fun to leave the airport ASAP after arrival and enjoy the reason you made the trip on business, vacation, or family.


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This is true when someone owns a hangar but isn't based there. They fly in from Austin and are zipped off to their estate somewhere on the island, having zero connection to the airport. Or the island, for that matter.

Which is the main reason we are so glad to be based at TFP now. There are no out of town billionaires there -- just real, live, local pilots who own the hangars, and actually fly. It is a fabulous airport.
 
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Everskyward said:
What I'm saying is that the adrenaline aspect is what would draw many young people to flying. Then they realize that safety, procedures, and regulations are the rule and and most of the fun stuff is verboten.
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I agree with that. Not just verboten there is no one in vanilla GA airplanes teaching or talking about any ways of doing any of the fun stuff safer(ish) and legally. That is why I switched to helicopters, when I was younger, the fun stuff is SOP.
 
Everskyward said:
I went hunting a fishing a few times when I was younger. I thought it was like watching paint dry. I also decided I didn't want to kill stuff even if I was going to eat it. Note that this is not an anti-hunting rant. It's a personal choice. I like hiking, but at least with hiking you don't need to keep quiet and be still...
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There are many other activities that are not like watching paint dry. Tennis, golf, other sports, clubbing baby seals......

Why are virtual reality’s acolytes so certain about its imminence?
The promise of virtual reality has been a staple of science-fiction dreams for decades. But until recently, the headsets were primitive and cost tens of thousands of dollars. The explosion of mobile devices has sharply reduced the price of many of the components that are essential to virtual reality headsets, including high-quality screens and motion sensors, as well as improving the experiences.
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Investors are lining up big time for newer, and newer technology for people to have adventures without leaving their basements.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/14/t...dsets-investors-glimpse-the-future.html?_r=0#
 
I don't buy the idea that people think it's boring. I think it's a combination of lack of exposure and(probably moreso) it just plain being unaffordable for most people.

I also don't buy this idea that all young people want to do is stare at their iDevice and play video games all day. I'm one of those device loving game playing people... I used to be quite obsessive about it in my youth. Eventually it gets boring and you want to do real stuff with real consequences.

I'm in my early 30s are are most of my friends... I'm doing unusually well for my age financially and even then as far in as I am, I often question the sanity of the amount of money I spend on flying. Several of my friends have indicated interest in it... only to be completely discouraged as soon as I start telling them what it really costs.

Most young people can't afford to drop $8-10k on a PPL before they even get started spending $300 to take their family out for cheeseburgers. Can it be done if you make it a priority? Sure. "Hey, honey... um.. if the kids don't go to college and we keep driving that 10 year old beater I can take us out for cheeseburgers once a month in a 30 year old skyhawk.... btw if we have another kid I'm gonna need you to loose about 15lbs."

Yeah, it's cost guys. Cost cost cost.
 
I don't think the proportion of people who are interested is much different than it was 30 or 40 years ago. I didn't know a single pilot, GA or otherwise, before I started taking lessons. I met some younger pilots (not younger than me, but younger in general) when I joined the college flying club, but this was a college of about 20,000 students and the membership was around 100, many of whom were faculty and staff, not students.

I will say that, even adjusted for inflation, it is more expensive now.
 
JoseCuervo said:
People also want to have fun in groups of 4-20. Flying does not lend itself to that. Most fun flights I have been on we're in the back of a private jet with 4-6 buddies, drinking beer on the way to basketball games.
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Co-ownership of a PoA C-130 sounds good. I'm in. Hahaha.

cowman said:
I also don't buy this idea that all young people want to do is stare at their iDevice and play video games all day. I'm one of those device loving game playing people... I used to be quite obsessive about it in my youth. Eventually it gets boring and you want to do real stuff with real consequences.
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And by the time they make that decision a great many realize they're in $20-$40K in credit card debt trying to play Barbie Dream House, and that's on top of their $100K in student loans that afforded them a $28K a year starting salary.

Everskyward said:
I don't think the proportion of people who are interested is much different than it was 30 or 40 years ago. I didn't know a single pilot, GA or otherwise, before I started taking lessons. I met some younger pilots (not younger than me, but younger in general) when I joined the college flying club, but this was a college of about 20,000 students and the membership was around 100, many of whom were faculty and staff, not students.



I will say that, even adjusted for inflation, it is more expensive now.
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Agreed.

All one has to notice is that we gather on messaging board that has a *national* ( or international if you please ) scope and we don't have sub-groups so large we don't know many people here. Any other hobby...

Oh and pop over to other similarly scoped message boards... Same people there.
 
SoonerAviator said:
A new 172 is well over $300K these days. That makes the purchase 6X's the average annual salary.


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And a new 182 is over half a million, and T-206 is like $650k and TTx $800k. Not sure where he got his average Cessna price from.:dunno:
 
Anthony said:
I agree with all of this. I believe younger people have been lured into virtual adventure, and entertainment where there is no risk, but sensory reward. Of course it isn't as meaningful as hard work, study, managed risk, and the inner reward of self sacrifice, and accomplisment that builds character.

The youth of today have been sold the false belief that they can be "empowered" by others while in reality it comes from within. I don't get it.
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That's how you create an easily manipulated source of revenue.
 
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I agree with the statement GA is declining. I think the primary reason is cost, not lack of interest. It is difficult to justify paying for an airplane, hangar, annuals, maintenance, GPS updates, medicals, etc., etc., for 4 or 5 trips a year to the beach. Most people, especially younger people, have other more pressing demands on their discretionary money.
 
If anyone's interested, the FAA Airmen statistics are quite detailed: http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/

The TL: DR version: There are two bulges in the pilot population, ages 20-35, which are disproportionately student pilots, and 50-65, which are disproportionately ATRs. The 20-35 age group appears to favor professional pilots in training and in the early stages of their careers. There is a large group of private pilots in the 50-69 age group that will age out and be replaced by a much smaller group of currently younger pilots. The number of student starts is off quite a lot from prerecession level, by as much as 20 percent, and off somewhat from the early years of the recovery.

Also, avgas sales continue to decline, from 5.3 million barrels in 2010 to 4.3 million last year.
 
FastEddieB said:
Thanks.

I knew it was a bunch.

So somebody must be springing for expensive new singles!
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If you look on FlightAware on any given weekday, odds are the most common piston aircraft that shows up there is the SR22. People are using them for business flying, it appears.
 
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