MauleSkinner
Touchdown! Greaser!
So this would be bad luck. Big Sky Theory wasn’t any part of this operation.Or luck. Big Sky Theory at work again.
Bottom line, whether or not an operation is safe has nothing to do with the outcome of a flight.
So this would be bad luck. Big Sky Theory wasn’t any part of this operation.Or luck. Big Sky Theory at work again.
If that were true, the fact that there were no previous accidents means it was safe prior to this accident.
If the helicopter had not reported the CRJ in sight and agreed to provide visual separation then they would not have been allowed to continue southbound.
The helicopter apparently sighted an aircraft following the Potomac River to the airport in accordance with the Mt. Vernon Visual Approach. It hit an aircraft following I-295, rather than the Potomac, to the airport. Should they have known to look there for the called traffic?The helicopter pilots failed and needlessly killed a bunch of innocent people.
The helicopter apparently sighted an aircraft following the Potomac River to the airport in accordance with the Mt. Vernon Visual Approach. It hit an aircraft following I-295, rather than the Potomac, to the airport. Should they have known to look there for the called traffic?
Show me on the chart where it says that.
Show me on the chart where it says that.
So you’re saying the collision was intentional?Sadly for the crew and pax of that airliner the helicopter crew was more interested in quickly completing their chauffeur training than their safety.
How touching, yet heartbreaking as well.I know better camera work exists of this, but it seems to only show the last 30 seconds and be on crappy "news" shows that are exploiting it for clicks.
So here's the whole performance, even though it seems to have been taken on a cell phone it's worth a watch. Don't miss the second half when three additional skaters join him.
Oh, I should also mention that when I was looking for this I found a thread on Reddit that said it was his father's favorite song, and the lyrics are roughly translated as follows:
The night and the silence given forever
It's raining, or maybe snow is falling
Anyway, I'm endlessly warmed by hope.
I see a city in the distance that doesn't exist.
Where is it easy to find shelter for a traveler
Where they surely remember and wait
Day after day, now losing, now confusing the trail
I'm going to this city that doesn't exist.
There's a hearth burning for me.
As an eternal sign of forgotten truths
I'm one last step away from him.
And this step is longer than life.
Who will answer me what fate has given?
Don't let anyone know about it.
Maybe beyond the threshold of wasted years
I'll find this city that doesn't exist.
There's a hearth burning for me.
As an eternal sign of forgotten truths
I'm one last step away from him.
And this step is longer than life.
There's a hearth burning for me.
As an eternal sign of forgotten truths
I'm one last step away from him.
And this step is longer than life.
Not really. Somebody in the past 50 years decided to re-define "follow the Potomac" to mean "cross the Potomac". There's the culprit.It is that simple
Not really. Somebody in the past 50 years decided to re-define "follow the Potomac" to mean "cross the Potomac". There's the culprit.
So you’re saying the collision was intentional?
Maybe they made a simple,honest mistake.If I wanted to say that I would have, I was clear in my statement
They valued their chauffeur training over the lives of the crew and pax flying in and out of that busy airport. Maybe they were just grossly negligent, maybe expectation basis, maybe normalizing of deviation, maybe a combo of the above.
Maybe they made a simple,honest mistake.
Your psychic abilities are impressive.It was simple, but not honest
They were in a habit of playing fast and loose with 121 traffic, and controllers allowed it
The outcome was foreseeable
Your psychic abilities are impressive.
I don’t see anything that says, “we’re playing fast and loose,” “we’re placing training above safety,” or any of the other things you claim the helicopter pilots were thinking.I don’t even reckon I need my magic 8 ball when all the ATC, and prior comms and radar tracks are on YouTube for the world to see
From what I've heard, from listening to many other recordings of the PAT traffic around DCA, the helicopter pilots immediately report traffic in sight and request visual separation every single time traffic is pointed out to them. That suggests to me, that the pilots in that unit have a practice of reporting the traffic in sight regardless of whether or not they see them with the expectation that they will pick them up in time to stay separated. That may be the normalization of deviance that has been uncovered by this accident.If the helo does see the arrival, they are instructed to maintain visual separation from the aircraft. The position of the CRJ was given, the type, and the intended route of flight.
While you believe that the instructions from the charted visual approach apply to airplanes transitioning to runway 33, the airline pilots who fly that procedure do not.The helicopter apparently sighted an aircraft following the Potomac River to the airport in accordance with the Mt. Vernon Visual Approach. It hit an aircraft following I-295, rather than the Potomac, to the airport. Should they have known to look there for the called traffic?
Proof of what? That aviation isn't 100% safe? Did we need proof of that?The fact that this accident happened and 70 people are dead is kind of proof.
Obviously not. They are just as dead.They valued their chauffeur training over the lives of the crew and pax flying in and out of that busy airport.
My old English teacher told me to "fake it 'till you make it", my CFI did not.. . . That suggests to me, that the pilots in that unit have a practice of reporting the traffic in sight regardless of whether or not they see them with the expectation that they will pick them up in time to stay separated. That may be the normalization of deviance that has been uncovered by this accident . . .
Obviously not. They are just as dead.
At the initial traffic call, the CRJ was just beginning to deviate from the MTV1 visual track. Thus, it should have made no difference where the CRJ was going to track as the PAT25 crew had indicated the CRJ had been identified and they would maintain visual contact. If visual contact was lost, the PAT25 crew was obligated to immediately inform ATC.The helicopter apparently sighted an aircraft following the Potomac River to the airport in accordance with the Mt. Vernon Visual Approach. It hit an aircraft following I-295, rather than the Potomac, to the airport. Should they have known to look there for the called traffic?
This is a logical fallacy. It doesn't work that way.If that were true, the fact that there were no previous accidents means it was safe prior to this accident.
www.ifr-magazine.com
So you’re saying that the outcome of this flight is the only determining factor for safety of all previous flights?This is a logical fallacy. It doesn't work that way.
This is the definition of Normalization of Deviance.If that were true, the fact that there were no previous accidents means it was safe prior to this accident.
Thank you.The chart of how to not hit stuff and die, or the chart of common sense?
If you say you have the traffic in sight, you better be looking at it, that’s how that works
This is a reason some pilots will never report traffic in sight, you take on responsibility when you say that, if you can’t handle that responsibility don’t say you have traffic in sight.
It is that simple
Sadly for the crew and pax of that airliner the helicopter crew was more interested in quickly completing their chauffeur training than their safety.
This is the definition of Normalization of Deviance.
I would like challenge anyone here to step forward to justify these CoG flights that were allowed to play chicken.
Heck, let's just throw out all Aviation rules and go visual separation.
Risk.Remember the FaA designed the routes and made no special changes to 7110.65 in doing so.
I get the emotion behind this event, but every controller and pilot who utilized the approved routes and methods instead of saying “unable” played a part in the accident chain.
That Congress kept piling s- -t in the 5lb sock that DCA is also is a contributing factor.
There’s plenty of blame to go around, but to learn from this accident we need to be examining if visual separation is “safe enough”in a high density, low altitude traffic area. Is it “safe enough” for only one of at least three participants (2 aircraft + ATC) to be able to make that declaration or should more than one participant in the deal be required to concur?
Looking at the 9, I think it is, other major metropolises with defined H routes, has the rigor the NTSB applied to route analysis been performed? Why do those areas get a pass?
None of the emotion brings anybody back and ignoring that the same things happen elsewhere in the NAS only does nothing to reduce the risk.
But “zero” fatals just isn’t achievable; neither is zero mid-airs. Lots can be done to make it low risk and even more can be done to continue to lower that risk, but it’ll never be zero risk unless we put aviation back in the genie’s bottle.
No, the exception proves the rule. Other Charted Visual Approaches specify the runway while this one states the "Airport'. We (meaning us old-timers) flew the same approach at the same speeds and stayed over the river. It was kind of fun, by the way.Again, once they were told to circle to 33 it necessarily removed the follow the river "guarantee."
Therein lies the problem, imo. I'm guessing somebody felt the need to utilize the FMS' runway centerline feature and felt they needed more time to set up the avionics. We used our eyes.While you believe that the instructions from the charted visual approach apply to airplanes transitioning to runway 33, the airline pilots who fly that procedure do not.
Who said the center?That would be quite a feat of airmanship for a CRJ to track up the center of the river until breaking off for 33.
They might have seen all those lights on the CRJ if it was coming straight at them instead of from over to their left behind the windshield post hidden in a sea of ground-level lighting.Even if that had been the case, the CRJ would still have presented a collision threat to PAT25, requiring continuous visual contact.
I don't doubt that, but they should have had the approach changed before they modified their SOPs.The reality is that 95% of the aircraft landing on runway 33 at DCA follow approximately the same track as that flown by the accident CRJ.
I don’t disagree this was preventable; the vast majority of mishaps. The question I’m asking is what effort is being put into examining the risk posed in other high-density, low altitude environments.… It's risk management and lessons learned from other crashes. Not one person stepped up here to say "this is unsafe"...
From what I've heard, from listening to many other recordings of the PAT traffic around DCA, the helicopter pilots immediately report traffic in sight and request visual separation every single time traffic is pointed out to them. That suggests to me, that the pilots in that unit have a practice of reporting the traffic in sight regardless of whether or not they see them with the expectation that they will pick them up in time to stay separated.
Only if you think that evidence causes crime.So you’re saying that the outcome of this flight is the only determining factor for safety of all previous flights?
They valued their chauffeur training over the lives of the crew and pax flying in and out of that busy airport.
That's a grossly unfair assessment to say the least ...
If you don't understand then I can't make it so ...
The problem is that there are no layers of safety in visual separation. It is entirely put upon one human being to not f up, and humans f up a lot.What am I not getting about this?
If the helo does not see the arrival, they are instructed to hold until the conflict is resolved. They are procedurally separated.
If the helo does see the arrival, they are instructed to maintain visual separation from the aircraft. The position of the CRJ was given, the type, and the intended route of flight.
Visual separation is used hundreds of times (or more) throughout the NAS daily. I read phrases like, "the normalization of deviance," and, "an accident waiting to happen." I've seen a cross-section map showing 75' of vertical separation, as if the procedure was being used to vertically separate the aircraft, but it was not, and cannot.
And yet, there is no way to 100% verify that you are looking at the correct traffic. Based on the numbers from the following post, separation gets down to less than 1500 feet laterally and 200 feet vertically a little over twice per month. Nobody looked at that and thought "Gee, maybe we shouldn't be cutting things so close because we're only one additional risk factor away from a crash"?The chart of how to not hit stuff and die, or the chart of common sense?
If you say you have the traffic in sight, you better be looking at it, that’s how that works
A review of commercial operations at DCA (instrument flight rules departuresor arrivals) between October 2021 and December 2024 indicated a total of 944,179operations. During that time, there were 15,214 occurrences between commercial airplanes and helicopters in which there was a lateral separation distance of less than 1 nm and vertical separation of less than 400 ft. There were 85 recorded events that involved a lateral separation less than 1,500 ft and vertical separation less than 200 ft.
Not these particular pilots, but the entire group of military brass, air traffic controllers, and pilots who were aware of the risky situation here and did nothing to change it.I don’t see anything that says, “we’re playing fast and loose,” “we’re placing training above safety,” or any of the other things you claim the helicopter pilots were thinking.