Covid-19 shelter-in-place rules and GA

Our EO has the same wording as the Delaware EO. Hard to argue that driving to the airport to drill holes in the sky is essential travel or activity.

Elsewhere it reads “All travel, including, but not limited to automobiles except Essential Travel and Essential Activities is prohibited.”

I’m just going have to suck it up.

https://publications.tnsosfiles.com/pub/execorders/exec-orders-lee22.pdf

For TN look at 8-D which is part of the essential activity definition and allows driving a vehicle as long as you maintain separation from others.
 
They are in Colorado. This is one of those times I'm happy to have my CAP card handy and claim I'm on my way to the hangar to pick up flight gear.....which is true - I don't hangar my cherokee the same place we keep the CAP airplanes. Definitely need to go get my headset, kneeboard, PLB, GPS, etc.
I'm one of the people who is responsible for keeping one of the local CAP airplanes mission-ready in case any emergency-services missions come up. This requires me to drive across Santa Clara Valley about twice per month to Reid-Hillview Airport in San Jose. The police use the terminal building there as a place to do paperwork and such, so there are usually a number of police vehicles there. During the stay-home order, I've been putting on my uniform when I go there, and being prepared to explain what I'm doing there and why, but so far, no one has said anything.
 
You aren't limited from driving as long as you are driving to an essential activity such as grocery shopping or work. Driving to a recreational spot is not deemed essential. As I mentioned, parks and beaches were getting crowded so I'm sure that's why they did it.
They've started closing parking lots at parks and open-space preserves here on The Peninsula.
 
They've started closing parking lots at parks and open-space preserves here on The Peninsula.
Here in the City too, but it's hard to close off some of the parking such as along the roads in GG Park and the area by the Legion.
 
Our governor has specifically included fishing, as long as things don't get crowded. That's the best therapy for me, right now, as I watch the value of the company I built up over the last 15 years melt away.
 
How exactly does the act of driving itself put one at increased risk of close contact with others?
These are arguably kinda silly, but playing devil's advocate here I would argue.... eventually you'll have to stop for gas, which eventually puts you breathing the same air of the person that was standing at that pump just before you, as well as indirect surface contact with the previous potentially dozens of folks that touched it before you. Also, it increases odds of break down or accident, potential necessary contact with tow truck drivers, police, first responders, etc.... Oh, and how about the person that rolls up beside you at a stoplight, sitting 4 ft away sneezing out their window? I've had my car at interstate highway speeds fill up with the stink from some smoker in front of me blowing their smoke out the window. Exchange that smoke for a cough or sneeze....I don't know, is that potential plausible?
 
Exchange that smoke for a cough or sneeze....I don't know, is that potential plausible?
Nope. It spreads pretty well via close human to human contact. If it spread well enough that someone coughing out an open car window at highway speed could effectively spread the infection to another person in a different car also going highway speed, no amount of sheltering in place would stop the spread or even slow it down much.

Using the gas pump? Wear gloves and/or wash your hands after. You should be doing that anyway.

Standing in an open outdoor area where someone else had been standing a minute or two before? How is that any different than walking the isles in a grocery store which is allowed?

Risk of getting into an accident? Sure. Accidents happen inside the home too. I don't see any increase in risk.
 
Driving: I kinda like the brave new world where cops only bother stopping for real safety issues and not revenue generation. :)

5 MPH over? Yeah screw that. Flip the lights on and off and have a nice day citizen! Hahaha.
 
Risk of getting into an accident? Sure. Accidents happen inside the home too. I don't see any increase in risk.

Accidents happen inside the home, sure, and about 3x as many accidents happen at home vs. in the car. However, given that you spend way more time at home than you do in the car, I don't think it's safe to say there isn't any increase in risk.
 
Accidents happen inside the home, sure, and about 3x as many accidents happen at home vs. in the car. However, given that you spend way more time at home than you do in the car, I don't think it's safe to say there isn't any increase in risk.
So you're saying it safer to spend even more time in the place where 3x as many accidents happen vs spending some time driving on roads which have no traffic or significantly less traffic than normal. I'm going to have to disagree there.

I am expecting that when this is all over, there will be lots of reports with charts and graphs showing huge dips and/or spikes for all sorts of things during the time we're locked down. Pregnancies, divorces, domestic abuse, etc. I fully expect that fatal vehicle accidents and drunk driving will show up clearly as well defined dips on those charts.
 
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So you're saying it safer to spend even more time in the place where 3x as many accidents happen vs spending some time driving on roads which have no traffic or significantly less traffic than normal. I'm going to have to disagree there.

Yes. If you figure that we spend, on average, 2 hours/day in the car and 20 hours/day at home, then an hour spent driving is still more than 3x as dangerous as an hour spent at home.

Yes, there's less traffic, but there are plenty of single-car accidents, and less traffic doesn't mean none.

I am expecting that when this is all over, there will be lots of reports with charts and graphs showing huge dips and/or spikes for all sorts of things during the time we're locked down. Pregnancies, divorces, domestic abuse, etc.

That is for sure! The stuff that's already out there for pollution, air traffic, and other things is pretty interesting.
 
Yes. If you figure that we spend, on average, 2 hours/day in the car and 20 hours/day at home, then an hour spent driving is still more than 3x as dangerous as an hour spent at home.
20 hours a day at home? I want your life. I spend far more time at work than I do at home. That's probably the case with most people.
 
So you're saying it safer to spend even more time in the place where 3x as many accidents happen vs spending some time driving on roads which have no traffic or significantly less traffic than normal. I'm going to have to disagree there.

I am expecting that when this is all over, there will be lots of reports with charts and graphs showing huge dips and/or spikes for all sorts of things during the time we're locked down. Pregnancies, divorces, domestic abuse, etc. I fully expect that fatal vehicle accidents and drunk driving will show up clearly as well defined dips on those charts.

There is already some evidence in Europe that overall mortality is actually down. There has been no observed excess mortality from Covid-19, except in Italy. That was from last week’s report there. We’ll see if it continues.
 
20 hours a day at home? I want your life. I spend far more time at work than I do at home. That's probably the case with most people.

Doesn't really matter if you're at home or work... Though I would imagine that work is probably safer than home! I don't use chainsaws and other potentially dangerous tools at work... Most of the time. :D
 
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on Wednesday warned violators of coronavirus lockdown measures they could be shot. Things are getting a little out of hand around the world.
 
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Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on Wednesday warned violators of coronavirus lockdown measures they could be shot. Things are getting a little out of hand around the world.


Well, that will reduce the COVID-19 death rate, at least. Of course, the firearm death rate will rise.....
 
AOPA
https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media...-for-public-benefit-exemptions-accommodations

I'll save the anti AOPA stuff for another thread.. here are the exemptions they're look for. From the article above

Requested exemptions

AOPA and seven other GA organizations signed an April 1 letter to the FAA requesting a wide range of exemptions and deviations:

  • Extension of FAR Part 61 pilot currency requirements, including the flight review and instrument proficiency check.
  • Guidance that 709 reexaminations or paperwork inspections in person (such as logbook inspections under FAR 61.51, or maintenance record inspections under FAR 91.417) be deferred or at least be conducted electronically during the current social distancing safety protocols and directives regarding nonessential activities.
  • Extensions for certificated flight instructor certificate renewal, expiration, and endorsement periods.
  • Extension of knowledge exam expiration period.
  • Extensions for applicants on the ability to complete practical examinations.
  • Extension for filing documents under FAR Part 13 (Subparts C, D, and G).
  • Extensions for aircraft maintenance and continuing airworthiness requirements with necessary mitigation procedures.

Granted, personally, while I did go flying myself last weekend (and stayed WELL more than 6ft away from people) I really don't think you can make any reasonable argument that private, general aviation, is an "essential service" - flight schools and the such really shouldn't be open and doing business. But I digress.
 
violators of coronavirus lockdown measures they could be shot
Some mayor in Italy said they would breakup a graduation party with flamethrower equipped police

-just got off the phone with my sister who works in an ICU in RI. This is serious stuff guys.. they're low on PPE.. it's not just all media fodder. The situation is quite dire.
 
Some mayor in Italy said they would breakup a graduation party with flamethrower equipped police

-just got off the phone with my sister who works in an ICU in RI. This is serious stuff guys.. they're low on PPE.. it's not just all media fodder. The situation is quite dire.

It’s been quite dire since it started, but people don’t understand how exponents work in populations with zero immunity. :(

A whole bunch still think math is just “models” like it’s four weeks ago and guesswork. It’s now real numbers and measurable.

The good news, the doubling rate has fallen a bit from 2 days to about 4.5. Problem is, people still don’t quite get that it’s a *doubling* rate.

On track for just under 200,000 confirmed and tested cases by midnight tonight... that means 400,000 by Wednesday midnight. And 800,000 by the following Monday.

Assuming the doubling rate holds at about 5 days.

Most places fell out of exponential growth around 5-8 weeks in. But doesn’t matter... the graph continues up, the distancing stays. We already have almost all the brakes on and smoking.

We shall see... I keep repeating to people bad a math that without a game changer, it’s a slowing game not a stopping game.

Aggressive isolation, herd immunity, more testing, and we slow it some more... but it takes time.

Haven’t fallen out of the straight part of the logrhythmic scale yet. Or the nearly straight up part of the linear one, however you like to graph.
 
We shall see... I keep repeating to people bad a math that without a game changer, it’s a slowing game not a stopping game.

Aggressive isolation, herd immunity, more testing, and we slow it some more... but it takes time.
This has been my question from the start. I understand the concept of "flattening the curve" in order to keep the medical system from being overwhelmed. But the area under the curve remains the same, so unless there is an effective treatment, or a vaccine, most people will eventually get it, since it seems to be so easily transmitted. It has moved to many parts of the country quicker than I would have thought.
 
Some mayor in Italy said they would breakup a graduation party with flamethrower equipped police

-just got off the phone with my sister who works in an ICU in RI. This is serious stuff guys.. they're low on PPE.. it's not just all media fodder. The situation is quite dire.

Food for thought. Leave it to the Germans to find the most efficient means of action. I was surprised to see their hospital beds per capita is about 3x the US, Spain and Italy. One could also simply guess the low mortality rate is a result of much more prevalent testing. Regardless, interesting.

https://www.newsweek.com/why-german...g-healthcare-system-mass-testing-luck-1495936
 
I'm tempted to call the shop and have them pickle the engine. I really don't think we'll be "encouraged" to fly again until fall.
 
This has been my question from the start. I understand the concept of "flattening the curve" in order to keep the medical system from being overwhelmed. But the area under the curve remains the same, so unless there is an effective treatment, or a vaccine, most people will eventually get it, since it seems to be so easily transmitted. It has moved to many parts of the country quicker than I would have thought.
If you go to this site and click on one of the states from the drop-down, you'll see solid horizontal lines representing the number of hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators, etc in that state.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

If the curve stays below the horizontal line, then the survival rate stays high. Those that need treatment will get treatment. If the curve goes above the line, that represents people that are told "Sorry, there's no more room here" and then the survival rate takes a dive.

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As tacky as it seems (and is), at least you have a better reason not to fly than the rest of us.

I think y’all should go fly really. Not sure you’d be coming into contact with anyone, until a dumb cop touched you and stuck you with 100 close friends to “protect” you.

I’ve honestly got a reason to hide in the basement for like twelve months or a solid antibody test. But I’ll have to go out sometime.

Problem with flying is like driving. Where ya gonna go? But you can get there real cheap!

Young guy I knew broke down the other day out driving. Middle of nowhere. North Dakota.

The tow driver was having none of that legal riding in the cab stuff. He videoed us all from the back seat of his car while experiencing moderate turbulence riding the flatbed.

Not safe, not legal, in normal times, but whatever now!

A remote airport breakdown could be interesting... parts... ride home... etc.
 
If you go to this site and click on one of the states from the drop-down, you'll see solid horizontal lines representing the number of hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators, etc in that state.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

If the curve stays below the horizontal line, then the survival rate stays high. Those that need treatment will get treatment. If the curve goes above the line, that represents people that are told "Sorry, there's no more room here" and then the survival rate takes a dive.

View attachment 84221

This one is similar. Haven’t checked their assumptions against yours.

https://covidactnow.org/
 
If you go to this site and click on one of the states from the drop-down, you'll see solid horizontal lines representing the number of hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators, etc in that state.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

If the curve stays below the horizontal line, then the survival rate stays high. Those that need treatment will get treatment. If the curve goes above the line, that represents people that are told "Sorry, there's no more room here" and then the survival rate takes a dive.

View attachment 84221
Right. I get that concept. It makes sense that the flatter the curve, the better the situation will be. NY's peak is 4/9, but they are way short of normal beds and ICU beds. My state (the one everyone loves to bash) doesn't seem like it's going to have a problem with the number of normal beds or ICU beds, but the peak isn't until April 26. What happens after the peak? I don't see things going back to normal until there is an effective treatment or a vaccine, because there will still be people around with the virus, and the spreading could get started again.
 
Right. I get that concept. It makes sense that the flatter the curve, the better the situation will be. NY's peak is 4/9, but they are way short of normal beds and ICU beds. My state (the one everyone loves to bash) doesn't seem like it's going to have a problem with the number of normal beds or ICU beds, but the peak isn't until April 26. What happens after the peak? I don't see things going back to normal until there is an effective treatment or a vaccine, because there will still be people around with the virus, and the spreading could get started again.
Well I suppose that's the hope, that vaccine and/or treatment will come after the peak. I personally don't have much hope for a vaccine that soon, but I think treatment is more likely by virtue of the fact that it doesn't have to be all-or-nothing. Plus, there's the possibility that those that have already had it won't get it again.

But your concern is valid, as I believe the 1918 influenza pandemic did have a second wave.
 
Nope. It spreads pretty well via close human to human contact. If it spread well enough that someone coughing out an open car window at highway speed could effectively spread the infection to another person in a different car also going highway speed, no amount of sheltering in place would stop the spread or even slow it down much.

Using the gas pump? Wear gloves and/or wash your hands after. You should be doing that anyway.

Standing in an open outdoor area where someone else had been standing a minute or two before? How is that any different than walking the isles in a grocery store which is allowed?

Risk of getting into an accident? Sure. Accidents happen inside the home too. I don't see any increase in risk.


 
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