ATTN Shop and AC owners: there is no MX shortage. Just a pay one.

[pfarber]

This should be an eye opener for you shop and AC owners:

On reddit, when asked if pay is not a factor, what area of aviation would you like to work?

Most said GA, but won't because of poor pay/benefits.

https://www.reddit.com/r/aviationmaintenance/comments/1t1c54f/if_you_could_take_the_money_completely_out_of_the

I am in the same boat... I'd jump to GA in a second if the pay and benefits were sane.

So no, there is no MX shortage. We're just following the money.

 

[ArrowFlyer86]

Are we suggesting a shortage problem can be solved by more money, which in turn would attract more resources?

Cuz that's not exactly a revelation, or news at all to anyone... and is actually the foundational basis for our entire economic system.

Sorry for the snark, but I think the relationship of mo' money -> mo' supply is pretty well established.

 

[Racerx]

Are we suggesting a shortage problem can be solved by more money, which in turn would attract more resources?

Cuz that's not exactly a revelation, or news at all to anyone... and is actually the foundational basis for our entire economic system.

Sorry for the snark, but I think the relationship of mo' money -> mo' supply is pretty well established.

I hear ya. But I do find it interesting that money aside guys liked working GA. One does wonder how much of a delta before you keep guys in GA.

 

[Clip4]

Take money out of the question, and how many would like to paint, write poetry, be a restaurant critic vs work on airplanes?

 

[Bell206]

So no, there is no MX shortage. We're just following the money.

Then why have all the industry projections been showing an increasing shortage the past 10 years with the peak yet to come? I'll give you a hint, its more than just money.

Take money out of the question, and how many would like to paint, write poetry, be a restaurant critic vs work on airplanes?

I cant speak for the current generations but with mine and the ones that made up my peer group, most would probably still work on aircraft as we did it not just for the money.

 

[Bob Noel]

Then why have all the industry projections been showing an increasing shortage the past 10 years with the peak yet to come? I'll give you a hint, its more than just money.

I'll bite (not being snarky or anything like that)... so why do all the projections show an increasing shortage?

 

[MauleSkinner]

So the airlines have more mechanics than they need?

 

[pfarber]

Are we suggesting a shortage problem can be solved by more money, which in turn would attract more resources?

Cuz that's not exactly a revelation, or news at all to anyone... and is actually the foundational basis for our entire economic system.

Sorry for the snark, but I think the relationship of mo' money -> mo' supply is pretty well established.

I posted a transcript from a podcast where a very well off shopowner said that even though he had a 30+ customer waitlist and was booked out 1 year or more, he still wouldn't raise the shop rate. You cannot invest in a business is there is no profit. And its not like there was no money left of the table... you have 30+ people wanting your expertise.... they should pay a fair wage for that service. I am not talking union, but if you're selling warm diet cola for $0.25 and sell out every day, that means you can up the price to say $0.35 or $0.50 and make more money. The goal isn't to sell out (ie have a year long wait list) the goal is to make money now. Rent is due on the first, payroll is due every two weeks... an annual scheduled 12 months out it not going to pay that.

Inflation is up over 25% since the covid time (5-6 years ago) yet shops still charge $150 an hour? Shops had to eat that inflation... do you think that's setting them up for long term success? Paying sub-$25 an hour isn't going to bring MX into your shop when regionals start at $30 and legacies start at $40+

Fixing airplanes is a vastly different skill set than running a business.

ALso one thing that every MX at a legacy will tell you: night shift sucks. rotating shifts suck. Being tied to your seniority number sucks. But that's the trade off for $45+ an hour. Does the 7-3 or 4 monday through friday have value? YES. Does working days and having weekends off have value? YES. But not enough to cover the pay gap. After 5 years most airlines have you in the $50-60/hr range. At a GA shop you might be at $30. I don't think GA shops have to match airlines dollar for dollar... but jeeze you gotta be close.

Again, there is no dire shortage of MX. I sit in a line room of 40+ MX every shift. New people constantly come in. BUT for GA the shortage may be more apparent becuase they want experienced MX w/IA certs and still only want to pay $25/hr.

Does anyone really think all those unfortunate Spirit MX are gonna go GA and take a massive pay cut? NOPE.

 

[Lawson_Stone]

This should be an eye opener for you shop and AC owners:

On reddit, when asked if pay is not a factor, what area of aviation would you like to work?

Most said GA, but won't because of poor pay/benefits.

https://www.reddit.com/r/aviationmaintenance/comments/1t1c54f/if_you_could_take_the_money_completely_out_of_the

I am in the same boat... I'd jump to GA in a second if the pay and benefits were sane.

So no, there is no MX shortage. We're just following the money.

This strikes me as true. I teach at a theological school (training ministers and advanced scholars in religious adjacent fields) and had a PhD student who was an A&P/IA but found he couldn't really make it in GA, didn't want to live near an airline maintenance hub, so decided to go into academic life. Now, academic life is not exactly a get-rich quick lifestyle, and job security isn't that great either. If this guy thought an academic career beat out being an AP/IA in general aviation, then yeah, something is amiss in GA.

 

[Pugs]

Does anyone really think all those unfortunate Spirit MX are gonna go GA and take a massive pay cut? NOPE.

Maybe if it let them live where they wanted. There's more than money here for some who look at long-term quality of life. Sure Delta pays well but living anywhere close to the ATL airport would suck my will to live (but others may love it).

One of our local shops was acquired, apparently on a trial basis, by a larger out of state shop. That shop raised rates a bunch. I would assume that the employees saw some of it, but after a couple months the deal was canceled. Apparently the big firm promised more mechs on-site to deal with the large SE turbines that they wanted to have a place to work on. That didn't happen. Local place is back under local control and is still looking for more mechs. No idea what they pay but the shop rate is $140 an hour.

 

[Lindberg]

GA is a lot more than owner-operated spam cans.

 

[RussR]

Speaking of "pay not being a factor", this seems to fit here:

Peter Gibbons: Our high school guidance counselor used to ask us what you'd do if you had a million dollars and didn't have to work. And invariably, whatever you'd say, that was supposed to be your career. So if you wanted to fix old cars, then you're supposed to be an auto mechanic.
Samir Nagheenanajar: So what did you say?
Peter Gibbons: I never had an answer. I guess that's why I'm working at Initech.
Michael Bolton: No, you're working at Initech because that question is BS to begin with. If everyone listened to her, there'd be no janitors, because no one would clean stuff up if they had a million dollars.

Money is ALWAYS a factor.

 

[Lindberg]

Speaking of "pay not being a factor", this seems to fit here:

Peter Gibbons: Our high school guidance counselor used to ask us what you'd do if you had a million dollars and didn't have to work. And invariably, whatever you'd say, that was supposed to be your career. So if you wanted to fix old cars, then you're supposed to be an auto mechanic.
Samir Nagheenanajar: So what did you say?
Peter Gibbons: I never had an answer. I guess that's why I'm working at Initech.
Michael Bolton: No, you're working at Initech because that question is BS to begin with. If everyone listened to her, there'd be no janitors, because no one would clean stuff up if they had a million dollars.

Money is ALWAYS a factor.

A recruiter once tried to get me for a job in Seattle. I told him I'm not interested in moving to Seattle. He asked if I would move to Seattle for my dream job. I said, "You've got someone in Seattle who will pay me to sit on the couch in my underwear and watch TV?"

 

[Bell206]

I'll bite (not being snarky or anything like that)... so why do all the projections show an increasing shortage?

A bit of background first. Initially it was a drop in demand, then the industry changed, followed by a loss in interest just as with other skilled trades. From the 50s to the mid-80s, there were ample mechanic job opportunities, close or near where you wanted to live, and at an honest wage for the industry.

Fast forward to 2000, and in previous time frame, the numbers of small mom/pop mx shops dropped by more that 50%, insurance rates tripled, and a number of existing A&Ps switched to a different industry and career path.

In the same time frame, with the advent of new technologies and home computers, the numbers of young people interested in aircraft mx also dropped by 50% in general. So, the numbers of A&P schools declined, the mechanic opportunities outside larger metro areas started to decline, and even the FAA switched from a GADO system to the current FSDO system because they no longer had a need for all that extra oversight.

5 years ago or so, for the first time in decades, the total number of active A&Ps, dropped below 100,000 even though there are over 300,000 on the books. And in the next 3-10 years you will have the majority of those active mechanics being at retirement age with about 40% of those numbers already over 60 years old.

While there is some light at the end tunnels on new A&Ps entering the industry, its not enough to replace the anticipated numbers lost to retirement plus make up for what’s short now. Unfortunately, even if those new mechanic rates take off and meet this demand in the next 10 years, they won’t correct the secondary issue: loss of experience.

Money is ALWAYS a factor.

Depends on the context. If I offer you a job that you really do not want to do, that requires a move near a large metro area, but you will receive top-industry pay and perks, vs a job you would love to do, remain close or near your current area, but you’ll only receive average or less industry pay, which one would you pick?

 

[RussR]

Depends on the context. If I offer you a job that you really do not want to do, that requires a move near a large metro area, but you will receive top-industry pay and perks, vs a job you would love to do, remain close or near your current area, but you’ll only receive average or less industry pay, which one would you pick?

Depends on the pay in each scenario, therefore money is a factor, as it always is.

 

[Bell206]

I posted a transcript from a podcast where a very well off shopowner said that even though he had a 30+ customer waitlist and was booked out 1 year or more, he still wouldn't raise the shop rate.

You spout off how raising mx rates will cure everything for recreational aviation maintenance issues, but you don’t offer any real-world type examples other than a jumble of numbers. Here’s your chance, detail how you would apply your rate increase theory and be successful to the following example:

A single man maintenance shop is retiring at a small but well-established county airport after 40 years of service. The airport manager calls you to come and set up shop after reading your posts on PoA. The current shop has been undercharging as you state for those 40 years, say $100/hr and the current list of 50 aircraft owners based there are keen to keep on site mx as the nearest competitor is miles away. Okay, start.

 

[Bell206]

Depends on the pay in each scenario, therefore money is a factor, as it always is.

And thats where we differ. I accepted the lower pay to work at something I enjoyed as I could have 3x my wage in the former scenario. All depends what you are driven by.

 

[MauleSkinner]

Depends on the pay in each scenario,….

It only depends on the pay in the lower-paying scenario.

 

[pfarber]

5 years ago or so, for the first time in decades, the total number of active A&Ps, dropped below 100,000 even though there are over 300,000 on the books. And in the next 3-10 years you will have the majority of those active mechanics being at retirement age with about 40% of those numbers already over 60 years old.

Going by a cursory google search in 2025 Delta alone employed over 6,600 AMTs. That may or may not include ASM and back shop AMTs.

I personally know of 25 new AMTs (a few of which were ASM promotions and a few lateral moves) in the last 6 months. And of those 25 none were over 30. I was the oldest by a long shot. My lead is only 29.

So you could say that Delta alone has roughly 10% of the active AMT base. Why? Profit sharing, raises, decent place to work, early top out, annual salary steps. And even WITH the 'shortage' I know of people who couldn't pass the BMAR or failed the interview. So airlines actually ARE turning away applicants. Why? They are really not that hungry that they need every mirror fogging body that walks in the door.

So what the point? Well how many GA shops have anything close to annual increases? Send you to GEN-FAM classes or factory schools? If we set aside money (lol no, you really can't) there is no progression or movement in a small GA shop. Most want you in the door WITH and IA... not that they will send you to a class or train you.

Is it all about money? Well I'm sure the well run, well staffed shops have figured something out... but few if any owners are getting work done in day/weeks. Most are waiting months. If your shop has to turn away paying customers then the shop is missing an opportunity.... they are turning down revenue because they don't see the value in hiring good people and paying a good wage. They would rather limp along and keep telling people that they schedule might open in a few weeks/months. Hey, shop owners: stop turning away revenue. Employees are generally the most expensive part of the balance sheet.... but they are also just about the only source of revenue.

 

[RussR]

And thats where we differ. I accepted the lower pay to work at something I enjoyed as I could have 3x my wage in the former scenario. All depends what you are driven by.

I don't think we differ at all. Pay was a factor in your decision. 3x your pay was not enough to get you to move. In other words, you considered the pay difference, and it was not substantial enough. Therefore the pay was a factor in your decision to remain, as was quality of life, location, enjoyment of the job, etc. You weighed all the factors and made your choice.

 

[Half Fast]

Another issue to consider regarding shops raising their rates is that their competition is not just other shops.

I've owned my plane for five years now. The only shop it's been inside is the paint shop. I've had all sorts of maintenance and repairs done, including a major engine overhaul, and I've used three different A&P-IAs, and it was all done in my own hangar.

Consider the maintenance shop that is charging a shop rate of, say, $140/hour. The shop owner has to pay rent, utilities, and other overhead expenses, he has to pay himself a salary, and he likely pays someone to act as bookkeeper and administrator. The A&Ps working for him might be making $70/hour, give or take a bit.

If one of the shop's A&Ps decides to strike out on his own, he can find plenty of work from guys like me. Our little bug smashers don't require elaborate tools or equipment, and he can carry all he needs in his truck or a small trailer. He offers the convenience of coming to our hangars, and that let's us do quite a bit of the simple tasks like opening and closing the plane without needing to pay a shop rate. He's not faced with a large overhead burden, as we're paying the rent and utilities for the hangar already, plus he has an unpaid assistant like me to help.

So our independent A&P charges maybe $100 or $110 per hour. He makes more than he was making at the shop, and I'm paying less to have the same guy work on my plane. Besides, I'm paying for fewer hours because I'm doing some of the work myself, without the "No customers allowed on the shop floor" BS; it's my floor! I'm happy, he's happy, and the shop is complaining about how tough it is to hire and retain A&Ps.

The guy I'm using has five other customers on my hangar row alone, and plenty of others around the airport, and he's flying his own 182 to work at other airports all over the state. He's earning more than he did working for a shop, and his customers are saving money.

The business model of a shop owner with a large hangar and a team of employees is necessary for kerosene burners and other large, complex aircraft, but it imposes unneccessary overhead burdens for the little spam cans many of us fly. These shops will continue to lose small GA business to independent mechanics.

 

[Bell206]

Pay was a factor in your decision. 3x your pay was not enough to get you to move.

Not at all, as that would only be valid if I valued the pay amount above everything else. There was no amount of pay they could have offered for me to move to that location, 3x or higher. Perhaps you would as it appears you place pay or money above all else. Simple.

Hey, shop owners: stop turning away revenue.

Okay. Show us how you would do that using the example scenario presented in Post 16.

He's earning more than he did working for a shop, and his customers are saving money.

Good for him. Unfortunately, while that plan does work well, its not apllicable to all airports for various reasons. I know several other mechanics that run boutique type mx services, but they took one step further and only provide for a select group of clients which works well for all involved.

 

[Lama1125]

Consider the maintenance shop that is charging a shop rate of, say, $140/hour. The shop owner has to pay rent, utilities, and other overhead expenses, he has to pay himself a salary, and he likely pays someone to act as bookkeeper and administrator. The A&Ps working for him might be making $70/hour, give or take a bit.

Shoot, I wish I was making $70/hr... 10 years in the business with 7 as an IA and I'm nowhere near that. Not even making $100k/yr. Most small shops only pay about $40/hr for an IA and about $20-25/hr for just A&P. At least from what I've gathered from my network of other IAs.

 

[Lama1125]

Another issue to consider regarding shops raising their rates is that their competition is not just other shops.

I've owned my plane for five years now. The only shop it's been inside is the paint shop. I've had all sorts of maintenance and repairs done, including a major engine overhaul, and I've used three different A&P-IAs, and it was all done in my own hangar.

I do see your point though as I work on a couple close friends of mines planes in their hangars. I don't charge per se but there is services exchanged (hunting their land, trading for trailer, etc..)

 

[RussR]

Not at all, as that would only be valid if I valued the pay amount above everything else. There was no amount of pay they could have offered for me to move to that location, 3x or higher. Perhaps you would as it appears you place pay or money above all else. Simple.

On the contrary, I do not. Right now I am in a job where I could easily leave and get hired elsewhere (or even just stay local) and make more money, but I choose not to - I make enough and am happy with my job and location.

Maybe our definitions of "factor" are just different. To me, everything you might consider is a "factor" - pay, benefits, lifestyle, location, promotability, personal goals, proximity to family, weather, traffic, nearby sports teams, fishing spots, on and on - some are just less important factors than others. I mean, I've had many opportunities over the year where I've had to make a job decision, and I'm sure like most people, I make a list of pros and cons (even if just in my head). One of the items on that list is pay. For example, for your scenario, "3x pay" would be in the "pros" column for the new location. But as you've stated, the location itself, job satisfaction, quality of life, etc., were all in the "cons" column. So the "cons" of moving greatly outweighed the "pros", and you chose to stay. But the pay was one of those factors involved, just not a very important one.

 

[Half Fast]

I do see your point though as I work on a couple close friends of mines planes in their hangars. I don't charge per se but there is services exchanged (hunting their land, trading for trailer, etc..)

Yep, all sorts of private arrangements are possible and barter can be financially advantageous for both sides. I suspect the US has a pretty substantial underground economy, all off the books, but I have no idea how large it might be.

 

[Half Fast]

Most small shops only pay about $40/hr for an IA and about $20-25/hr for just A&P. At least from what I've gathered from my network of other IAs.

Have you considered leaving the shop and working independently?

 

[Bell206]

Maybe our definitions of "factor" are just different.

Perhaps so. I wanted a job/career that I truly wanted to do as I was told many times, if you do something you love, you never "work" a day in your life. So after one adventure down that aviation path involving a long-distance relocation, I found that I actually really wanted helicopters and went to the one location that could provide that adventure. No pro/con list. No wage comparison. No nothing. Just plane fare and another long relocation. And what I found making that job my career, I wasn't the only person who wanted that same adventure. Regardless, I just found within my peer group, aviation mechanics tended to stick to aviation even though there were multiple other options available, at higher wages, as the work was still enjoyable.

 

[pfarber]

Okay. Show us how you would do that using the example scenario presented in Post 16

Its not an answer that can be whipped up in a 10 minute potty break. If you think it is then please show the class your work.

Picking a base, negotiating leases, finding insurance, marketing, networking, equipment etc are all complex and interrelated problems. Do you want to stay with a specific manufacturer or type? Paint? tool up for an IRAN shop?

I wish it was as easy as just renting a hangar and start getting annuals but thats not a plan, that just a side gig.

If the future of MX is going to be the roving MX then ok. But you're going to limit your billing as a shop allows for larger projects that provide more billable hours.

One huge issue i see with the roving MX is travel time and being able to pack every tool you might need on a road trip. Do you eat the round trip time to get that wrench or tool you need or bill for it? All those sorts of questions need to be planned out and presented to the customer so your agreement for work is clearly understood

 

[Bell206]

Its not an answer that can be whipped up in a 10 minute potty break. If you think it is then please show the class your work.

Except you've stated in multiple threads its simply a matter of a shop charging a higher rate and paying a higher wage to mechanics. Now its more than that? You can't at least give some highpoints on how your higher rate charge theory would work with the provided scenario above in 10 minutes?

 

[Lama1125]

Have you considered leaving the shop and working independently?

I did briefly, but around here people are a little more hesitant on independent IAs. We've had a rash of some that will take your money and dip or just show up, not look at a thing and call it good to go. (A lot of those have been caught thankfully but there is still some). I like the shop I'm at now, its a nice place to work and I get my 40 hours if I'm working on planes or not. More money is always better but consistency of pay is even better.

 

[schmookeeg]

Shoot, I wish I was making $70/hr... 10 years in the business with 7 as an IA and I'm nowhere near that. Not even making $100k/yr. Most small shops only pay about $40/hr for an IA and about $20-25/hr for just A&P. At least from what I've gathered from my network of other IAs.

I bet this is quite regional.

Our area got drained of A&Ps last year. The airlines offered a 100k sign-on bonus on top of their 140K union package. Shops are now quickly headed to $200/hr and still understaffed.

If you've run a shop, you know that might still not be enough. Just like flight schools, the cash flows in rivers, but only a trickle stays. Everyone is there for the love of the game, and they sacrifice a lot to be there.

 

[Bell206]

I bet this is quite regional.

Very regional. Know several mechanics in same company who added $30K to base salary by simply moving to different locations with a minimum COLA impact. Before it was only COLA that drove the wage differences, now its primarily location based and if COLA does apply, its on top of that wage location difference. Almost makes me want to go back to work for a few months.... almost.

 

[pfarber]

Except you've stated in multiple threads its simply a matter of a shop charging a higher rate and paying a higher wage to mechanics. Now its more than that? You can't at least give some highpoints on how your higher rate charge theory would work with the provided scenario above in 10 minutes?

This is your scenario:

"A single man maintenance shop is retiring at a small but well-established county airport after 40 years of service. The airport manager calls you to come and set up shop after reading your posts on PoA. The current shop has been undercharging as you state for those 40 years, say $100/hr and the current list of 50 aircraft owners based there are keen to keep on site mx as the nearest competitor is miles away. Okay, start."

What are my current balance sheet items? My monthly expenses? Does this shop produce PROFIT or does the old MX simply 'own his job'? What are my prospects for additional space? Does this mythical airport manager have any real decision making power (I doubt that he does although some are given wide latitude... until money is involved). Does the airport allow work on the ramp? Is the FBO (if there is one) friendly to GA? Is there a metro or even moderate sized city nearby for talent?

Those are just some of the issues that need to evaluated before I would ever consider taking over. You should quickly notice that I don't care about the customers and how they would feel about a price hike. Going from $100 to $125 in 2-3 years is only 3% more than the increase in inflation in the Biden administration. So mathematically the shop is approxiately charging $80 an hour adjusted for inflation. Old man AnP needs a 25% increase just TO CATCH UP. another 2-3 years later jump to $150.

Not every shop is worth it. They own their job and that's basically it. No growth, no increase in revenue (save for a random large billable project) and no plan. And if there is a plan, how contrary is the is airport going to act towards support this shop they want to keep?

So no, I can't whip up a winning plan for a fictitious MX that is most likely just staying afloat mainly becuase its a waste of time. I have no need to prove the obvious to random people on the internet. I've started a business from zero and ran it for 6 or so years. Made a couple million in total revenue but not much profit once everyone was paid. Sold it with no regrets.

I'll give this analogy that somewhat fits. A new HVAC tech signs up to a shop and makes $30/hr. 5 years in get promoted to supervisor making $45. Starts doing side work. Two or three mid-career techs then open thier own shop and in 2-4 years has a crew of 2-4 workers. Is no longer a line tech but now runs the show making $100k+ That would be a normal progression for a MOTIVATED person.

An MX opens a shop. Never hires a helper. Doesn't increase rates or do anything special like turbo-prop or turbine work. Where is the progression? The only way more money comes in is by more billable hours or increasing rates. There is no 'career path' unless the business grows and the single MX goes from wrenches to manager (and still turning wrenches). Can't be a manager unless you have someone to manage.... its a vicious cycle of common sense.

 

[Bell206]

You should quickly notice that I don't care about the customers and how they would feel about a price hike.

I think this is one of your more profound statements and exactly why you have no clue how the aviation mx business works.

 

[pfarber]

I think this is one of your more profound statements and exactly why you have no clue how the aviation mx business works.

oh thats a remark from someone that's most likely never ran a business.

The average consumer is as dumb as a bag of wet rocks. As a business owner I set the rate, the product and the rules. If you don't like them try and find the products i offer elsewhere.

Again, run a customer facing business and tell me that the customer is always right. lol I can't believe people actually think that applies. lol

I'll note that other than a pithy and low effot response you couldn't find any fault with my 10 minute reply.

So tell me Mr. customer is always right, how would you run bobs low paying no future airplane -o- rama and make a profit and grow? Oh wait, your last annual customer is at the door wanting to know why you said his airplane with one wing missing is unairworthy... cuase you know, the customer is ALWAYS right

 

[JOhnH]

Again, run a customer facing business and tell me that the customer is always right. lol I can't believe people actually think that applies. lol

I have run a business. I always told my staff "The customer is not always right, BUT you never win a argument with a customer".
If you think you won, you probably lost that customer.
Lose too many customers and you lose everything.

 

[Pugs]

I have run a business. I always told my staff "The customer is not always right, BUT you never win a argument with a customer".
If you think you won, you probably lost that customer.
Lose too many customers and you lose everything.

And in this day of on-line reviews and social media that includes potential customers.

 

[Half Fast]

And in this day of on-line reviews and social media that includes potential customers.

And even existing customers. Bad reviews travel far and fast.

 

[MauleSkinner]

As a business owner I set the rate, the product and the rules.

Based on your posts, I’d bet the rules would change frequently.