I didn’t happen to meet you in Henderson this week did I? I was in a Citation and you had just gotten delivery of the new bird. Mark
No joking - I put myself on a wait list a month or so back. . .I am NOT an economist or reader of tea leaves; but it ain't looking too good through 2023.
The US population increased by about 17 million over that time. Not sure what the % of pilots was then . . .is that real growth in %? Not sure FAA stats that impact their budget are "pristine" - sort of like school system's student population counts - or econ reports from China : )
Hmm, how many of those extra people are 1) just born, so unlikely to be pilots for a few years, or 2) undocumented aliens???
ISC to SOC causation. (interstellar conditions to suborbital conditions for those outside of the loop)
Good question. Some of my former students disappear. Some show up when it's time for a Flight Review. More puzzling to me are the ones who are very close to taking the checkride, have passed the knowledge exam, and just stop.
If you want to find really local, Canadian ads (and oftentimes the best deals like barn finds or estate sales), check out the sites below. Every plane I've bought so far came from one of those sites instead of the major aircraft marketplace sites: https://www.kijiji.ca/ https://www.bcaviation.ca/classifieds.html https://www.tvsac.net/BS1.html https://canadianplanetrade.ca/ https://upac.ca/classifieds/
That’s a broker, not a marketplace. Probably less likely to find undervalued airplanes on that website.
I know a number of people who stopped. One guy was after his friend who is a commercial pilot died in a well publicized incident involving a Quebec politician, and his reason was that he just stopped feeling the risk was worth it with a family and such. Another wants to get back in but he stopped again due to family time commitments. I don’t now if he’ll actually start again. There are many I think who had the dream of doing it as a child but once they have pilot a plane, it doesn’t hold the same draw as it used to.
Our school does an event we call "Pilot For a Day" which has become incredibly popular. For around $100, attendees get three ground school presentations and a chance to fly an intro lesson that is about 20 minutes long. The last few years we have done three sessions a year, about 50 attendees each. For most people, it is checking a box on their bucket list. For a few, it is the start of flight training.
I’m 73. When my generation is gone, I believe that General Aviation will be virtually a thing of the past. There are numerous reasons for this, but I believe it’s true. If bizjets are considered GA, then, that will be a bigger percentage of the GA world.
Problem with GA planes is they don’t make a lot of them and the new ones are super expensive. Every year the older ones crash or get to the end of flight worthy condition. So I think GA planes won’t take a nose dive. Interest rates will drop down again and the rush will be back on
Sounds like my grandmother born in 1898. First car she drove she got going down a hill and wrecked it. Never drove again.
Look at the age of student pilots. The big groups are in the 20-35 age range, you aren't running out of young people wanting to fly. YES! If GA's survival depends on flying the legacy fleet indefinitely, then it is doomed to a slow extinction.
I'm so tired of reading old crudgeons declaring the death of GA. I swear that one dude on Beechtalk has been heralding it for 10 or 12 years straight now, just as fervently now as when he started. I say into the pine box with ye and leave us to our dead hobby.
Every hobby that I have been interested in the last 40 years has been on its deathbed. BMX bikes…nobody rides anymore. Skateboarding…there’s nowhere to ride anymore. 2 stroke Dirt bikes…the environmentalists are killing them. 4 stroke dirt bikes…there’s not enough power to compete, and they are too complicated. Street bikes and sport bikes…insurance rates will put every rider off the road. Dual sport bikes, quads, 4x4 jeeps, suv’s and trucks, dune buggies, and now side by sides…the environmentalists are taking away our riding areas. Camping…there’s nowhere to camp and no one wants to be outside anymore. Fishing and hunting…the environmentalists are killing the sport. And now, airplanes…it just can’t survive…just like every other hobby. Funny enough, all those things are still thriving. Flight schools are packed, maintenance and avionics shops are booked months out, and for every GA airport that gets closed, 10 private airstrips pop up on the sectional. GA is alive and well, and is here to stay. Cirrus has sold more planes than all other single engine pistons combined for the past few years. They will eventually be retired from flight schools and the 182 or Cherokee 6 driver will sell his plane and buy a used Cirrus, or an RV, or a Diamond, or a Tecnam. Or, they will buy a newer Cessna or Piper, that are still being produced. Stamp collecting is still a thriving hobby, and you can’t get much more boring than that. GA is going to be just fine.
.... because there are no groups looking at killing GA (deliberately or not). It's all rainbows and unicorns. Don't worry, be happy
No, we cannot become complacent, but I don't think GA will die soon. My local FBO has a full slate of students, many of them younger (pretty much are younger than me ). Maintenance facility is full all the time. Rental fleet is flying. Hangars are full.
If it is a "hobby" for most, then it will become marginalized, at least the tiny cans that we fly. I used my plane for business, it was quite a wonderful thing while it lasted, 125 or so hours per year. But when that stopped I wasn't so interested in punching holes in the sky at 105 kts.
/s Don’t you know there’s a pilot shortage at the airlines for the test of this decade?/s off Those kids aren’t getting into aviation for concepts that don’t functionally exist today; they’re chasing the money.
I get it. If you lived through the 1979 aviation heyday, drove your 400ci Trans Am with the screaming hood chicken over to the FBO, strutted your giant corduroy bell-bottoms to the flight line, and had your pick of shiny new Dakotas, Skylanes, and Grummans to fly for $0.90/hr, you'd probably be forgiven thinking GA has only sucked since then and is going to hell. What's missing in all of these grousings is that even a reduced-from-that-zenith GA is still awesome. Those same planes are on the flight line with 13,000 hours, sloughed-off orange/brown paint, and run $200/hr now. The pilots are rocking up in Teslae and skinny jeans and man-buns. Most of my transition training lately is 20 and 30 somethings, dudes who worked hard, did well, and now are playing hard. They're having a BALL and yeah, not worrying a bit about any of it. You pepperidge farms rememberers can do the worrying.
They were busy sending their young men to a meat grinder in France. Hard to maintain an empire after losing an entire generation in four years.
FYI, in 1979 a Grumman Tiger at my local filed was $30 an hour wet. But auto gas was under $1 a gallon. And a yearly income of $15,000 was not bad.
Hmm….. so you want me in a pine box because I’m old and my opinion doesn’t agree with yours….. yeah, just shoot those old geezers. There’s a hangar shortage everywhere anyway. Don’t get any blood on the planes though.
Great point hangie. One thing though, how many of that age group are moving toward GA and how many are striving to be in the seats of a jet? I think your last comment about the fleet is really valid. It’s not going to get any cheaper to be an aircraft owner, or even a renter.
