Whats the aviation job market actually like?

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mnvikes8484

Filing Flight Plan
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chiz
I'm burned out and think my job might not be secure in the next few years and am looking to make a midlife career change and have been interested in aviation, I read mixed things about how awesome the job market is and you get an ATP and everything is great and then the next place it sounds like thats a bunch of bull. If I go for this I was planning on buying a plane and trying to rack up most of the 1500 hours myself which I could swing but it would be a significant expense for me so I dont want to do it for nothing. Sounds fun anyway. What do you honestly think job expectations are like or will be in 3-5 years?
 
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A fellow CFI at my school hit the magic 1500 hours and was fortunate enough to get an interview with a regional airline. They advised him he'd start training in six months. Now they say it may be 18 months.

Having the total time isn't worth much if it doesn't include some multi-engine time and better yet, turbine time. If you buy a plane just to get 1500 single-engine hours, you really are at a disadvantage. Job market in 3-5 years? No one really knows.
 
It’s bad enough that three people I know and would vouch for with over 1500 hours can’t get hired. A copilot of mine with 6500 hours and over 100 multi can’t get a job and he’s been a 100% faithful, reliable, professional photo pilot for me.
 
There are a lot of experienced people on the street right now, and the legacies aren't hiring as many as they were in '22 and '23. Looking like that may be changing soon, but until it does the people with wet ink ATP's aren't going to be getting hired as quickly as they once were.
 
Not sure if this is any indication, but my friend's shop that refurbishes avionics for all major airlines has seen VERY sharp decline in business within the last 2 months. Almost 70% decline, and this is a reputable shop with over 30 years in business. It was the only shop in the area that was busy and hiring right after 9/11.
 
mnvikes8484 said:
What do you honestly think job expectations are like or will be in 3-5 years?
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lulz, way cart before the horse. Demographics are more important here. The crux for most "career changing" households is gonna be the schedules with children, especially with a spouse who didn't sign up for de facto single parenthood after the kids and the pedestrian schedules had been agreed to before you decided to change, tacitcly or not.

There's also a problem with the way the question is even asked in the first place. The implication being you're not interested in the low points of a cyclical career, and can cherry pick your way throught industry downturns. That's magical thinking, and optimism bias run amok. That's not the industry you're thinking about changing into. As such, it would be the height of irresponsibility to embark on this expense on the inducement of "hiring highs" you're reading online and motivated by.
 
mnvikes8484 said:
I'm burned out and think my job might not be secure in the next few years and am looking to make a midlife career change and have been interested in aviation,
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FWIW: there are a number of opportunities in aviation other than being a pilot with some possibly being just as rewarding to you.
 
hindsight2020 said:
lulz, way cart before the horse. Demographics are more important here. The crux for most "career changing" households is gonna be the schedules with children, especially with a spouse who didn't sign up for de facto single parenthood after the kids and the pedestrian schedules had been agreed to before you decided to change, tacitcly or not.
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Nah youre totally right about the cart ahead of the horse I'm just doing some research and seeing what others are experiencing, I dont even have a ppl yet so we'll see how far i end up going with this. I'm divorced but my kids would be leaving the house about the time im finished, and I work long weird hours and have kids when im not there so going back to school seems really difficult and flying to random places on nights or weekends seems like more fun than real work so if the market is good its almost too good to be true for me. I just dont want to pile 100k+ in and find out its impossible to get hired as a dude in his mid 40s with no experience.
 
mnvikes8484 said:
Nah youre totally right about the cart ahead of the horse I'm just doing some research and seeing what others are experiencing, I dont even have a ppl yet so we'll see how far i end up going with this. I'm divorced but my kids would be leaving the house about the time im finished, and I work long weird hours and have kids when im not there so going back to school seems really difficult and flying to random places on nights or weekends seems like more fun than real work so if the market is good its almost too good to be true for me. I just dont want to pile 100k+ in and find out its impossible to get hired as a dude in his mid 40s with no experience.
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on the bolded....This is the problem with aviation work, every vocationally-aggrieved [proverbial] laptop-tapper thinks of piloting as ADN "nursing", low-barrier to entry. And in some ways it is low barrier, which is also why so many people get burned. I have little sympathy for that outcome. Digressing.

To the rest of your post:

"Impossible to get hired" where though? ...If you mean major airlines, you have to consider the opportunity cost of time. For someone in middle age, that level of debt for the jobs in question is ill-advised imo. You're basing your repayment schedule on hiring progression to $200K+/yr in the same timeline as it took the born-on-third-base brigade of '16-'20, '21-'24. Go talk instead to the '02-'13. Don't actually do that, you'll be looking for a while.

That's the vocational environment you're trying to plug into. I'm not saying it's not possible, anything is possible. I'm saying it's imprudent to make that choice, if the only way the 100K+ debt pencils out is if that low % play of "getting hired by delta 18 months after getting hired by Envoy/Endeavor/Skywest, and getting hired by those the second you hit ATP mins" comes to fruition.

Here's how people of your age do it in the real world of median airline hiring timelines:
1) They have a supporting income while waiting the trough, so the debt they incur in retraining doesn't wreck their lives for their entire 40s and 50s. That can be a pension, or staying plugged into the work they currently perform on a less than full time basis if that is physically allowable by the employer. Divorced actually helps you on the schedules front as long as you are not the primary custodian. Married parents in dual income setups are not going to be agreeable to into single parent household pivot 10 years into a marriage. That could/often causes divorce, at which point the schedules work again lol. Empty nesters work too. DINK works too.

2) External benefactors paying for your training.

Your questions imply you're staking the plan on
3) 2021 hiring gold rush, repeating.

You're already divorced, so 1 could work. 2 doesn't seem likely, given your age (military sending you to pilot training, rich pilot daddy, et al). 3 is really ill-advised imo. Others will disagree. Only you can make the final decision. May the odds be forever in your favor.
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As @Bell206 wrote, there are many opportunities if you widen your view a bit. Betting everything on an airline gig is like drawing to an inside straight; you might get lucky but it's a dumb play.

EXAMPLE - My A&P-IA has his commercial ticket, with ME and rotary wing. In addition to local airfield work (like for me), he has clients all over the state and he'll fly his own 182 to do A&P work for them, plus he has a couple of helo pilot gigs on the side. One of them is flying a real estate developer around to view properties, meet with sellers, etc. He'll take on some charter work from time to time, too. He's doing very well for himself, has more work than he can handle, and I'd bet he'll never even try for the airlines.
 
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Don’t accrue any debt. Get the ratings and build time. As soon as you have the commercial multi engine instrument done start applying for jobs. There are lots of places that will allow you to build time and experience to get the required time to be competitive in this industry. But the pay sucks. Good thing you don’t have any debt
;-)
 
For my first midlife crisis, I went into 135 Cargo thinking exactly like you -- "flying any airplane has GOT to be better than flying any cubicle"

Pro tip: When you turn a "fun" hobby into a job, it draws in all of the "suck" that every job has and stops being fun. Being TOLD "go fly" for fractional peanuts of income you have become accustomed to is a really tough pill to swallow.

I'd address your burnout, because if you're burned out at a JOB, the solution will almost certainly not be to apply more JOB -- particularly one that demands an investment of several tens of thousands of dollars. :)

$0.02
 
mnvikes8484 said:
I'm burned out and think my job might not be secure in the next few years ….
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Said every pilot trying to make it the airlines.

Since you don’t even have a ppl yet, consider the requisite medical exam that expires every six months if you’re over 40. They ask questions like “have you ever in your life had…” and list “every visit to a medical provider in the last three years…” and remind you failure to disclose is a federal felony.

You go into pro aviation because you’re willing to accept $17/hr for the time you’re in the airplane and $0/hr for everything that you do before that and hoping to win the lottery in a decade so you can make an order or magnitude more that $17/hour.

You’ll have to expect every six months you may become medically disqualified with no recourse and you will be subject to furlough every day of your career. Your schedule will be dictated by others, and you will respect that or lose your job.

The most fun I had was doing it professionally, even as self loading baggage in the Air Force. I enjoy watching a student make it thru the pipeline. I don’t want to “fly for the airlines” so the rest of my flying is recreational.
 
This is just the opinion of someone who will reach 1,500 way, way before he is eligible for an ATP. So, factor that into the equation.

You have to love it. Do it because you love it, not because it is a paycheck. You have to be willing to do anything that isn't unreasonably dangerous, pretty much anywhere in the country. And you need to have a network who knows that you'll do anything that isn't unreasonably dangerous pretty much anywhere in the country.

There are jobs. Not glamorous jobs. Not "I'll work here forever" jobs necessarily, or "i'll work here for a decade and retire" jobs. But "I'll stick around, pay my dues, and log more hours while getting paid" jobs. If you are young and debt-free it will do for now. But, if you have to service loans and support a family . . . well, there are plenty of people out there who will be able to made due on less.

In my opinion, it's not a great way to structure the game. But nobody asked me to make the rules. And honestly, I haven't devoted any time to pondering theoreticals (other than why 23). I just read the rule book and figured out what I could and couldn't do, and don't waste my time bitching about the latter.
 
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mnvikes8484 said:
I'm burned out and think my job might not be secure in the next few years....
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I'd just like to point out that the airline gig you're considering pursuing will likely be even less secure and may very well leave you even more burned out plus in great debt.

Consider carefully.
 
No new hire classes at my regional in over four months, and those hired four months ago were probably on a six month waiting list. So no hiring for almost a year.
 
dmspilot said:
No new hire classes at my regional in over four months, and those hired four months ago were probably on a six month waiting list. So no hiring for almost a year.
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While we’re not a pro pilot track board like JC or APC, it would be interesting to hear a no Kit Darby spared assessment of what drives pilot hiring at regionals and mainlines and the tie between the two.
 
Half Fast said:
As @Bell206 wrote, there are many opportunities if you widen your view a bit. Betting everything on an airline gig is like drawing to an inside straight; you might get lucky but it's a dumb play.

EXAMPLE - My A&P-IA has his commercial ticket, with ME and rotary wing. In addition to local airfied work (like for me), he has clients all over the state and he'll fly his own 182 to do A&P work for them, plus he has a couple of helo pilot gigs on the side. One of them is flying a real estate developer around to view properties, meet with sellers, etc. He'll take on some charter work from time to time, too. He's doing very well for himself, has more work than he can handle, and I'd bet he'll never even try for the airlines.
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I’m a hobbiest/side gig A&P. I will be getting my IA in November. I’m finding it fairly easy to trade A&P work for flight instruction dollar for dollar and am working on ratings and endorsements in that manner.
 
Don’t accrue any debt. Get the ratings and build time. As soon as you have the commercial multi engine instrument done start applying for jobs. There are lots of places that will allow you to build time and experience to get the required time to be competitive in this industry.

You need to be ok with never getting hired at a legacy. Lots of people don’t.
 
aterry1067 said:
I’m a hobbiest/side gig A&P. I will be getting my IA in November. I’m finding it fairly easy to trade A&P work for flight instruction dollar for dollar and am working on ratings and endorsements in that manner.
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Not surprising. I think my guy does some of that.
 
As others have said, it's impossible to know. If you can tough out your job until the kids are out of the house, I'd keep flying concurrently (get a 1st Class medical if you haven't already done that) and continue to collect ratings and certificates on the side. By the time you have a couple hundred hours under your belt you'll have a better idea of whether you're enjoying it enough to move forward.

You didn't mention where you live or whether you'd be willing to move once the kiddos are gone, but that will matter too. Things are a lot easier when you're in a larger market for flying opportunities, or able to move to where a job might be. On the airline side, living in a base tends to allow more schedule flexibility for a given seniority, and so on.
 
An option:

Pay off or don’t accrue any debt.

Keep your day job or at least part of your day job and train until you get your CFI or II.

Then instruct.

Instruction can be a lot of fun FOR THE RIGHT PERSON. You won’t make much money but - it’s a lot of fun.

(And somebody else is paying for you to fly!)
 
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Was able to get my engineering job to allow me to go part time with option to work remotely if needed. It helps to stabilize my income with flight instructing. And because I took my time getting the ratings, I have very little training debt leftover. I think that's a reasonable way to do it if you can. I didn't ask to go part time until I was working with a steady stream of students on evenings and weekends and had the CFII completed. Join a few cadet programs if you can.
 
mnvikes8484 said:
I'm burned out and think my job might not be secure in the next few years and am looking to make a midlife career change and have been interested in aviation, I read mixed things about how awesome the job market is and you get an ATP and everything is great and then the next place it sounds like thats a bunch of bull. If I go for this I was planning on buying a plane and trying to rack up most of the 1500 hours myself which I could swing but it would be a significant expense for me so I dont want to do it for nothing. Sounds fun anyway. What do you honestly think job expectations are like or will be in 3-5 years?
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1500 hrs x $150/hr = $225,000.

You need to pay for the first 250, then find someone else to pay for the rest (employer).

Go for it man. Be ready for when the next hiring craze begins. It may be slow now, but once the major airlines start hiring again the entry level jobs will become available to you.

Go fly, make it happen.
 
FWIW, I was 35 yrs old when I took my first lesson. 5 years later I had 3000 hrs (1500 turbine multi), and snagged a seat at my first choice airline. Timing was right, but I would have been content chugging away in the small planes a few more years if needed.
 
texasclouds said:
1500 hrs x $150/hr = $225,000.

You need to pay for the first 250, then find someone else to pay for the rest (employer).

Go for it man. Be ready for when the next hiring craze begins. It may be slow now, but once the major airlines start hiring again the entry level jobs will become available to you.

Go fly, make it happen.
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$13,042.03 or so to 313 hours, two Commercials (-G and -ASEL), and my first paying job.

Caveats: About 200 hours were in gliders. It took four years since I started at 14. My parents invested about $8,000 buying two equity club memberships that they later sold.
 
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Sounds like Spirit is not going to make it past the end of the year, so that is going to dump a whole lot of experienced pilots on the market, which will slow things down again for people building time. And if somehow age 67 comes to be, that stagnates everyone's career by another 2 years.
 
Half Fast said:
I'd just like to point out that the airline gig you're considering pursuing will likely be even less secure and may very well leave you even more burned out plus in great debt.

Consider carefully.
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Just to put some numbers to this…in the last 37 years in aviation, I’ve found myself unemployed 3 times for a total of about a year. I consider myself to be fairly lucky…I know people who have had several employers close up shop with no notice, guys who got furloughed for several years right about Christmastime due to a seasonal slump until they got some seniority, not to mention the “we’ll probably call you in about 7 years” furloughs that happened after 9/11.

Don’t get into aviation for job security.
 
I have friends who flew for decades in the airlines and loved every minute of it. I have other friends who flew for decades for the airlines and COULD NOT WAIT TO RETIRE and hated every minute of it.

Like any other job, it can be the best thing ever for some people and the worst thing ever for others.

I took a long hard look many years ago and decided it was not the path for me.
 
Pinecone said:
I took a long hard look many years ago and decided it was not the path for me.
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A few months before I left the Air Force, I wrote to my mother and said maybe I would look for an airline job. Her answer: "That's not why we sent you to college."

I went back to my job in television news, and that turned into a pretty good career in broadcasting.

One of my best friends from UPT ended up with United, but he did endure being furloughed a long time midway through his career.
 
TCABM said:
Since you don’t even have a ppl yet, consider the requisite medical exam that expires every six months if you’re over 40. They ask questions like “have you ever in your life had…” and list “every visit to a medical provider in the last three years…”
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Among all of the other advice, I'd start with exploring if you'd have any issue with getting and keeping a 1st class medical. DON'T GO TO AN AME. First, research and get a good handle on the requirements. Then, get a consultation. Do not give them your application number, do not let them apply. IF you're a good candidate for getting a 1st class, then see if you can get one.

THEN you can figure out if this is what you want to do. You don't have your PPL. Have you been flying before with anyone?
 
I tell people desiring an airline career that technogy will be replacing 1st officers over the next 10 years. People tell me how wrong I am. Right….

“Airbus is actively working on technologies to support single-pilot operations, particularly during the cruise phase of flight, with the goal of eventually reducing crew size on commercial aircraft. This initiative, known as Extended Minimum Crew Operations (eMCO), is driven by the potential for cost savings and increased operational efficiency for airlines. While single-pilot operations are not yet authorized, Airbus is developing the necessary technologies and collaborating with regulators to pave the way for future implementation.”
 
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