Twin Cessna Down KSAN

Really sad. Not long after being given a 180 heading by ATC, the flight path started wavering in a series of turns and dives. This was just after reaching an altitude of 1600’.

One dive of over 13,000 fpm got them down to about 300’ before recovering. Around the same time, ATC gave them a low altitude alert and asked them if they needed assistance - they replied they were struggling to maintain heading and climb. ATC tried to steer them to NAS North Island. The Cessna almost looked like it was somewhat stable, but once it got up to about 1500-1600’ again, it entered another series of spiral dives. Shortly after a panicked mayday, the Cessna disappeared from ADS-B, radar, and radio. A person surfing nearby gave an eyewitness report that the plane came out of the clouds straight down into the ocean at high speed.

KSAN 081920Z 30007KT 10SM OVC015 19/14 A3000 RMK AO2 T01890144 $
 
6 people on board? I owned a 414A with RAM VII upgrades. The Chancellor is not a ‘fill it and forget it’ airplane. Just because you have all those seats doesn’t mean you can fill them. My initial thought was ‘How much luggage and fuel was on board?’ Reported inability to climb? Wallowing in the sky? Sounds to me like it was overloaded and/or out of CG.
 
Been a rough few weeks for aviation in San Diego.
 
flyersfan31 said:
6 people on board? I owned a 414A with RAM VII upgrades. The Chancellor is not a ‘fill it and forget it’ airplane. Just because you have all those seats doesn’t mean you can fill them. My initial thought was ‘How much luggage and fuel was on board?’ Reported inability to climb? Wallowing in the sky? Sounds to me like it was overloaded and/or out of CG.
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That makes more sense. Local aviator was thinking engine failure, but if the pilot didn't report an engine out, then overweight or out of balance does make sense. Might be something you don't want to broadcast that you didn't do a proper weight and balance.
 
Supposedly there is video out there from some premium subscription surf cameras of the airplane coming out of the clouds in an unusual attitude, correcting the attitude and then climbing back in to the clouds.
 
farmrjohn said:
VASAviation ATC recordings, scary. link
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Truly scary; I am not an active pilot any more, but was for 20+ years and 3,500 hrs+ in "small planes". It sounds like spatial disorientation -- perhaps induced by some equipment failure or other malfunction. But when the plane tried to turn to 180 heading it just started flying circles/spirals.

I was always scared of flying, in particular instrument flying in a complex plane. By "scared" I mean: Be prepared for malfunctions, equipment failure, unexpected weather, etc. etc., and know and train how to deal with it before taking off. I have lost heading indicators in IMC, another time on takeoff into IMC over the ocean (Gulf) in a turn the aileron actuator failed getting me into a hard-right-turn; altitude hold also failed, as did my GPS on a coupled approach in IMC.

Not trying to preach but always thought that a good amount of respect and fear/stress -- the kind that induces strong motivation to do something specific to address the threat, not the kind that induces panic because I don't know what to do(!) -- is a good thing to have as a pilot.
 
dachar89 said:
Supposedly there is video out there from some premium subscription surf cameras of the airplane coming out of the clouds in an unusual attitude, correcting the attitude and then climbing back in to the clouds.
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Sounds more like somebody who can’t maintain control in the clouds for whatever reason than a weight/CG issue.
 
Looking at the flight history, the plane had a bunch of short flights before heading to California.
 
The audio is up on YouTube. The pilot sounded really nonchalant about not being able to maintain altitude and heading. It's really strange. I'm wondering if there was some type of incapacitation. The only panic was the final Mayday call.
 
MauleSkinner said:
Sounds more like somebody who can’t maintain control in the clouds
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This.
There is nothing inherently wrong or dangerous with a properly maintained C414 flown by a properly trained and current pilot.
Yet……..
6 people dead and one more unnecessary nail in the coffin for obtaining insurance on planes like mine. Such a waste.
 
MauleSkinner said:
Over on Beechtalk the rumor is young contract pilot who got himself IFR current in the airplane a few days ago.
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Probably one of those g1000 types that have never flown without an auto pilot and had all their solo flights with an instructor on board.
 
MauleSkinner said:
Over on Beechtalk the rumor is young contract pilot who got himself IFR current in the airplane a few days ago.
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Not to get too far ahead of things, but the recent flight history of that aircraft (unknown if attached to the same pilot) hasn’t exactly taken place in locales known for their marine layers.
 
Jaun Brown has a solid video up. Poor pilot could have skud run back to SAN or north island, twice. Controller tries to get him there in vmc. RIP.

Sent from my SM-S901U1 using Tapatalk
 
CRQFlier said:
Jaun Brown has a solid video up. Poor pilot could have skud run back to SAN or north island, twice. Controller tries to get him there in vmc. RIP.
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Viewed the video, and it was painful to listen to the audio following the first 360 degree excursion and realizing he survived. At that point, not hearing a Mayday Mayday Mayday "I'm having control issues now level and climbing above the clouds (or descending below the clouds) to visual conditions... please standby", this bad situation only got worse.

Screaming passengers not accustomed to acceleration and G forces may have been a clue he was in deep trouble and now was a golden opportunity time to ignore ATC instructions and their offers for help, and get visual ASAP.
 
Rick A said:
Viewed the video, and it was painful to listen to the audio following the first 360 degree excursion and realizing he survived. At that point, not hearing a Mayday Mayday Mayday "I'm having control issues now level and climbing above the clouds (or descending below the clouds) to visual conditions... please standby", this bad situation only got worse.

Screaming passengers not accustomed to acceleration and G forces may have been a clue he was in deep trouble and now was a golden opportunity time to ignore ATC instructions and their offers for help, and get visual ASAP.
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Having flown this airspace for 25 years, hearing ceiling was 1600', at 400-500' you can miss everything on the ground for a 5+ mile radius (more in most directions) and land at 4 public airports and another 5 military fields. Climb to 1000' and you get another 5 miles. Visibility was probably low but I'd guess at least 3-5 given time of day. But it's difficult over the gray water looking at gray overcast to realize just how much room you have under the deck, especially if you're not used to flying here. Gut wrenching.

Sent from my SM-S901U1 using Tapatalk
 
CRQFlier said:
Visibility was probably low but I'd guess at least 3-5 given time of day. But it's difficult over the gray water looking at gray overcast to realize just how much room you have under the deck, especially if you're not used to flying here. Gut wrenching.
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Yes, for sure. A climb may have worked out better than remaining low and offshore. Yet, at one point early on (per ATC) he was only one to two miles away from an airport and cleared to land any runway. Maybe there's more to this tragedy than a simple inability to hand-fly instruments minus visual references... hell seems that his guy was cut loose by someone to go fly paying customers.
 
Rick A said:
Yes, for sure. A climb may have worked out better than remaining low and offshore. Yet, at one point early on (per ATC) he was only one to two miles away from an airport and cleared to land any runway. Maybe there's more to this tragedy than a simple inability to hand-fly instruments minus visual references... hell seems that his guy was cut loose by someone to go fly paying customers.
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That truly needs to be looked into, how did this pilot get to fly a Cessna 414 with passengers if he was unable to fly basic IFR in benign daytime conditions. Ceiling was 1500 feet, if he was having so much trouble stay under the ceiling and return VFR. He was not so far from shore to not have visible references, visibility was reported at 10SM. That and given his overly calm response to not being able to maintain a heading or altitude, I have to think there was something else going on.
 
MauleSkinner said:
Nobody qualified would do it for what they were paying?
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That’s been a thought percolating in the back of my mind here. Was this a “cheap” 414 that someone picked up and then didn’t want to “overpay” a pilot a big fraction of the hull value to fly it around?
 
Some times it seems a cool, calm and collected pilot's voice on the radio conveys to ATC that the pilot knows what there doing and can be handled like the other 99% of the pilots they deal with daily. Right up until a panicked Mayday is screamed into the radio just before the crash.

A good example of this was maybe four or five years ago when a low-time female flying a Cirrus (with children) into Houston (Hobby?) kept receiving runway changes over and near the airport every time a jet was on final. It was fairly windy, and some crosswinds were greater than others depending on the runway they were instructing her to use during the next attempt to land. As I recall, she remained high and fast and there was at least one or two go-arounds called by the tower as the Cirrus was visually out of position for an acceptable descent to landing.

She sounded calm and professional on the radio throughout all this maneuvering around, and accommodated each delay to the best of her ability. Clearly she wasn't ready to use a big city airport during busy hours. After what I think was about the 3rd or 4th runway change and realignment she stalled into a parking lot killing everyone. IMO, her stick and rudder flying ability did not rise to the level of her cool and calm professional pilot sounding voice.
 
Once whilst flinging out of control in a A-4 (apparently caused by a stuck slat) I heard myself calmly key the mic and respond in a deep sexy voice, “I’m fine…” when queried.

To be CLEAR, I was NOT fine. I was on the verge of EJECTING. Nonetheless, I was solo, and that transmission came from my jet… pretty sure it was me…
 
midwestpa24 said:
That truly needs to be looked into, how did this pilot get to fly a Cessna 414 with passengers if he was unable to fly basic IFR in benign daytime conditions. Ceiling was 1500 feet, if he was having so much trouble stay under the ceiling and return VFR. He was not so far from shore to not have visible references, visibility was reported at 10SM. That and given his overly calm response to not being able to maintain a heading or altitude, I have to think there was something else going on.
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I dug through clearance and ground ATC archives to get a more complete picture. N414BA received the clearance at 18:19z. Clearance was:

BRDR7.IPL V66 GBN V95 PXR D> PHX

Initial climb altitude was 13,000’

Readback was deferred by ATC until 1822z, just a minor correction on the squawk and end of route at Phoenix, otherwise correct.

Taxi did not commence until 1831z, and he waited over 50 minutes to take off (not atypical at single-runway SAN).

The BORDER 7 (BRDR7) departure is depicted below:

IMG_5742.jpeg

The textual description (sans IPL transition) is:

“TAKEOFF RUNWAY 27: Climb on heading 278° until PGY 19 DME, then left turn on heading 123° to intercept PGY VORTAC R-260 and R-069 to BROWS INT. Thence. ...(transition) or (assigned route). Maintain assigned altitude…”

Note that the PGY19 DME (marked by me with a red arrow) is about 3NM miles offshore (dependent on track, but close enough here). ATC turned 4BA off of the SID on a 180° heading about 1-2NM prior to him reaching that point. The initial flight track is straight as an arrow, very much consistent with use of autopilot. After that, there are points in the data that are consistent with hand flying (obviously the case once the loss of control sequence began). However, the ADS-B data do not indicate autopilot or navigation system modality.

The top of the layer was reported to be around 2600. From the reported bases at ~1600 that’s about 1000’ thickness, or around a minute or less of IMC at a fairly standard climb rate. A couple of the “maneuvers” during the accident sequence got him oh so close to the top of the layer.
 
Flying Keys said:
The top of the layer was reported to be around 2600. From the reported bases at ~1600 that’s about 1000’ thickness, or around a minute or less of IMC at a fairly standard climb rate. A couple of the “maneuvers” during the accident sequence got him oh so close to the top of the layer.
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That is what I would refer to as Gentlemen's IFR. I would expect even a basic IFR student to be able to fly through such a layer. Especially in daylight with otherwise good visibility. No ice, no convective activity.
 
Lance F said:
This.
There is nothing inherently wrong or dangerous with a properly maintained C414 flown by a properly trained and current pilot.
Yet……..
6 people dead and one more unnecessary nail in the coffin for obtaining insurance on planes like mine. Such a waste.
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1970 model aircraft. 55 year old plane. I know it’s all in how you maintain them but.
Think you will see the FAA come up with old age requirements as more of these airframes crash? Probably not Part 91 but I could see it affecting Part 135.

Sun in Fun mid 70’s looking at all the WWII aircraft and thinking how old they looked.
At the time they were 35 years old or newer.
 
midwestpa24 said:
That is what I would refer to as Gentlemen's IFR. I would expect even a basic IFR student to be able to fly through such a layer. Especially in daylight with otherwise good visibility. No ice, no convective activity.
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The California coast is well-known for these fairly predictable, stable, common marine layer conditions - as you said without ice or convection. Great for IFR training and practice, but still to be taken seriously and all too often catches the unsuspecting and/or unproficient off-guard, with deadly results. This is at least the third thread related to these conditions in the last (just over a) month.
 
Of course he shouldn’t have been flying if not current & all. That said, all he had to do was get above 2600’ or so. You would think he could do that before any turns, even the point ATC turned him. It’s easier flying IFR without any turns, in the soup.

The next thing he could do, is start a baby turn when given the heading. That could be a 15 degree AOB while climbing, until he broke out VMC.

I’m just stating a few techniques to keep things upright. Yeah, a little ‘foggles’ time may not cut it for real IFR.
 
Anthem said:
something doesnt jive here. . by all accounts, engines were fine. . so probably easy to rule out OEI. Also, no possible way he could have climbed the way he did if it was OEI with that type of load. But its pretty obvious that the plane was overweight and probably fairly significantly. And if there wasnt weight in the nose compartment, then the CG was probably way out of whack as well. This would have presented itself more on take off, and that seemed mostly fine. Marine layer was 800ft - 1600-2400ft. That is literally like less than one minute of climb, and if he was having issues - why not just stay below to get his bearings before climbing. .

So how is someone remarkably calm, just saying they are having difficulty maintainig altitude and heading like it was nothing. .. even with passengers in the back who are probably panicking. . truly tragic as its 6 (+1, as she was 8 months along). Just feel for the families involved.

He supposedly got current the day or 2 days before. Would be interesting to find out from the safety pilot of CFI as to how he handled his foggle approaches in AZ, as Im almost certain it was VFR then.
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From the runway through the first 1000’, just prior to entering notional IMC and the subsequent turn to the south, it averaged ~750 ft/min at about 100 knots groundspeed. Winds at 1000’ were forecast to be about 300° true at 10 knots - so roughly a 10 knot headwind component on runway heading, similar to, if not slightly more than what was reported by METAR on the ground.

During the turn to the south (nominally a crosswind), it got as low as 91 knots groundspeed and remained level at 1600 and accelerating to over 130 knots before the first descent commenced. (Speculatory): similar results might be replicated if someone were to change the autopilot mode and lose whatever vertical mode was in play prior.

Bad W&B and management thereof could definitely contribute to an upset that led to loss of control in IMC. Even just as a matter of delaying what should have been a quick “punch through.” Another possibility is ATC turned them south premature to the published SID because they were lingering too long on runway heading during that slow progress.

The climb does look fairly anemic at first glance, however, a quick check of this aircraft’s history shows that ~100 knots GS and ~500 to 1000 fpm during the initial climb (irrespective of density altitude or winds aloft) was evident on several prior flights. So it’s hard to say, given a lack of evidence, whether the aircraft’s performance was significantly altered from its “norm” in this instance. Guess we’ll have to wait for the report on that one.
 
I just watched Juan Browne's video on this. Here's what I see. They climbed on runway heading (~270) for a while, then got a vector left to 180 while climbing. After rolling out of the turn, they flew straight for a little bit but then began a series of basically uncontrolled left turns. That sounds like a classic case of the leans to me. Your vestibular system gets used to the left turn and, when you roll out, you think you're in a right turn so you "level off" into a left turn. And you could well think that you are doing fine, the plane is just changing heading for some reason.
 
Really strange almost like the Boca C310 crash. Or partial or total instrument failure.
 
Anthem said:
So how is someone remarkably calm, just saying they are having difficulty maintainig altitude and heading like it was nothing. .. even with passengers in the back who are probably panicking.
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Maybe there will be an answer in the toxicology report.
 
Lindberg said:
Maybe there will be an answer in the toxicology report.
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From the looks of it, the only thing this guy drinks is diet coke and coffee creamer. I dont think he's other type to use substances.
 
The story gets longer and possibly more revealing as to proficiency or lack thereof:


Frustrating.
 
NJP_MAN said:
From the looks of it, the only thing this guy drinks is diet coke and coffee creamer. I dont think he's other type to use substances.
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I don't know anything about him and I'm not going to listen to the audio. But there are some medical things that could explain the behavior described here. Or it could just be panic or something else.
 
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