Twin Cessna Down KSAN

Flying Keys said:
The story gets longer and possibly more revealing as to proficiency or lack thereof:


Frustrating.
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I was just watching this. Glad someone posted the link. It seems like proficiency is definitely a question here.

Sloppy approach. As Anthem noted above, he flew through the LOC multiple times before establishing. He also initiated the approach early before receiving clearance, and additionally had to be given a low altitude alert during the approach. I agree with Anthem that he just seemed to be behind it the second he went IFR. All of us IR guys know that it can be workload-intensive to pick up a pop-up clearance, especially if it is going to involve quickly needing to brief and fly an approach. Still, this seemed like a pretty straightforward situation. Even accounting for single-pilot IFR and allowing for the possibility of limited automation/avionics, it was an easy IFR and he bungled it.

Ground navigation after landing leaves a lot to be desired. Certainly someone could be perfectly proficient at instrument flying and suck at ground nav if they just don't have a lot of Class B/C taxi experience. It does, however, add to the overall picture. His approach the day before the accident does not inspire confidence.
 
Tools said:
Once whilst flinging out of control in a A-4 (apparently caused by a stuck slat) I heard myself calmly key the mic and respond in a deep sexy voice, “I’m fine…” when queried.

To be CLEAR, I was NOT fine. I was on the verge of EJECTING. Nonetheless, I was solo, and that transmission came from my jet… pretty sure it was me…
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Yes. This was the "never let them see you sweat" school with was sooo part of the culture.
 
If he had never been to San Diego before, it's not easy.
 
in fairness to the deceased, hard to center up the localizer when you're flying the RNAV, by his own admission.
 
Rick A said:
Viewed the video, and it was painful to listen to the audio following the first 360 degree excursion and realizing he survived. At that point, not hearing a Mayday Mayday Mayday "I'm having control issues now level and climbing above the clouds (or descending below the clouds) to visual conditions... please standby", this bad situation only got worse.

Screaming passengers not accustomed to acceleration and G forces may have been a clue he was in deep trouble and now was a golden opportunity time to ignore ATC instructions and their offers for help, and get visual ASAP.
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He was under the layer, 3 nm from NAS North Island, plenty of altitude to clear the peninsula. Yeah, a bit of a PITA to land at a .mil facility without prior clearance, but it's been done.
 
My guess is pilot incapacitation. I'm not very familiar with the weather at the time, but what I've read there was a marine layer about 600'-800' thick. He should have been above the layer at some time during the flight, or could have asked and gotten above the layer without much difficulty. The main things that could explain that flight track are impairments to the aircraft's control system or impairments to the pilot. The pilot was asked whether he was having difficulty, and he answered in the affirmative, yet he was unable to describe it.
 
LWGII said:
My guess is pilot incapacitation. I'm not very familiar with the weather at the time, but what I've read there was a marine layer about 600'-800' thick. He should have been above the layer at some time during the flight, or could have asked and gotten above the layer without much difficulty. The main things that could explain that flight track are impairments to the aircraft's control system or impairments to the pilot. The pilot was asked whether he was having difficulty, and he answered in the affirmative, yet he was unable to describe it.
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What kind of impairments are you guessing? There’s a lot of supporting information in this thread. It’s weird that the excursions only happen when flying IFR and/or in IMC.
 
LWGII said:
My guess is pilot incapacitation. I'm not very familiar with the weather at the time, but what I've read there was a marine layer about 600'-800' thick. He should have been above the layer at some time during the flight, or could have asked and gotten above the layer without much difficulty. The main things that could explain that flight track are impairments to the aircraft's control system or impairments to the pilot. The pilot was asked whether he was having difficulty, and he answered in the affirmative, yet he was unable to describe it.
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Sounds like a classic description of spatial disorientation. Yes, that's a form of pilot incapacitation in the broad sense, but a very specific one.

These are called accident chains for a reason. I don't know squat about the useful load of a 414, but others in this thread have indicated based on the pax count that this flight may have been flirting with max gross. A 600'-800' layer could easily require 30+ seconds of climb if the plane was heavy. For a pilot whose instrument skills are rusty or underdeveloped, spatial disorientation could easily set in more quickly than that. Even if he fully broke out, would he have had adequate time and skill to recover a heavy airplane in an unusual attitude before plunging back in?
 
traumamed said:
Sounds like a classic description of spatial disorientation. Yes, that's a form of pilot incapacitation in the broad sense, but a very specific one.

These are called accident chains for a reason. I don't know squat about the useful load of a 414, but others in this thread have indicated based on the pax count that this flight may have been flirting with max gross. A 600'-800' layer could easily require 30+ seconds of climb if the plane was heavy. For a pilot whose instrument skills are rusty or underdeveloped, spatial disorientation could easily set in more quickly than that. Even if he fully broke out, would he have had adequate time and skill to recover a heavy airplane in an unusual attitude before plunging back in?
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Here’s an old ad for the plane: https://www.aircraft.com/aircraft/201079373/n414ba-1970-cessna-414

I don’t see the useful load, which is my pet peeve in ads for these planes because they vary wildly. I’ve seen as low as the 1200s and as high as 2200s (or higher, but I don’t remember for sure) for various twin Cessnas. Fuel for their planned flight could have been as little as 500 lbs or as much as full tanks. The ad also doesn’t tell me which tank setup it had, but 200 gallons is common so let’s say up to 1200 lbs of gas on board. The payload could be anywhere from <100 lbs up to 1700. Which means it could have been loaded far over gross or far under.

I don’t think the weight was a significant factor in this crash. I don’t think anything about the plane was a significant factor in this crash. The plane seemed to have no trouble pulling out of a dive and climbing back into the clouds. A plane that can do that can level off on a heading and altitude instead of crashing into the ocean, as long as the pilot commands the former instead of the latter.
 
It looks a lot like the deviations for both flights began after ATC gave instructions that were not part of the published procedures and/or what the pilot expected, which should be noted is an absolutely normal part of IFR flying - you don’t always get what you want/expect. Trying to remain situationally aware and changing to the proper mode while in a new environment, in a high-performance airplane, in or near IMC, with unexpected instructions isn’t trivial, regardless of whether that was what affected this flight.

I’m not sure how the panel and buttonology for this airplane was configured, but unexpected, last-minute changes - vectors off or onto a procedure, direct to waypoints, non-procedural climbs and descents, turns to headings, and all the NAV and AP modeology that comes with staying ahead of the aircraft is a critical part of IFR flying. It takes creativity and fairly deep understanding of the NAS to prepare for these kinds of scenarios - part and parcel of the law of intensity during training. The audio and flight paths from the two flights once again serve as a macabre reminder that this is serious business and we should all be more prepared than we think we are.
 
My guess it is some sort of sudden, acute neurological event, most likely not spatial disorientation, unless the pilot was not nearly as capable as I assume. The reason I say that is by judging what I would do and how I would react in similar circumstances.

If the pilot was experiencing spatial disorientation, when he dipped below the marine layer the first time, when VMC he should have recovered before reentering the layer, seeing as how he didn't contact the water. I would think that a reasonably competent pilot, when he busted out of the layer would have 1) struck the water, or 2) been able to re-orient himself in VMC. Likewise, I think but am not sure that during the high altitude portion of the flight he might have been above the layer. If so, he should have been able to recover. My experience in SD is limited, but I don't know how you can have SD for long after acquiring a visible horizon. Now, maybe combinations of speed and inertia hampered or precluded recovery, but I think the ADSB track would have shown more of a struggle to stay in VMC.

I think he lost effective control of 414BA, and he was just along for the ride.
 
LWGII said:
My guess it is some sort of sudden, acute neurological event, most likely not spatial disorientation, unless the pilot was not nearly as capable as I assume. The reason I say that is by judging what I would do and how I would react in similar circumstances.

If the pilot was experiencing spatial disorientation, when he dipped below the marine layer the first time, when VMC he should have recovered before reentering the layer, seeing as how he didn't contact the water. I would think that a reasonably competent pilot, when he busted out of the layer would have 1) struck the water, or 2) been able to re-orient himself in VMC. Likewise, I think but am not sure that during the high altitude portion of the flight he might have been above the layer. If so, he should have been able to recover. My experience in SD is limited, but I don't know how you can have SD for long after acquiring a visible horizon. Now, maybe combinations of speed and inertia hampered or precluded recovery, but I think the ADSB track would have shown more of a struggle to stay in VMC.

I think he lost effective control of 414BA, and he was just along for the ride.
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This would be basic unusual attitude recovery, and since nobody said, “put your head down and close your eyes,” I doubt that his mind grasped that.
 
In my opinion, it was an eye, brain, hand disconnect.
 
traumamed said:
Even if he fully broke out, would he have had adequate time and skill to recover a heavy airplane in an unusual attitude before plunging back in?
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As mentioned earlier by a familiar with the San Diego area, CRQFlyer (post #21), 10 vis reported beneath the overcast may have offered very little visual clues. I'll add that looking straight down at a grey ocean should be seen, but without much wave/swell action (the winds were nearly calm) or surface craft (with wake), there's not much contrast. Any definitive view of a horizon out front beneath the cloud base could be wishful thinking.

With the recorded groundspeed increases and the extreme downward vertical speeds, the aircraft was primed for a zoom upwards if the wings finally leveled to near normal. In that case, unless he proceeded to manually and swiftly spin the trim wheel down, he may not have had the strength to prevent a zoom upwards.

Don't know about electric trim speed in most aircraft (other than mine), but would surmise they are probably as painfully slow to adjust to any large changes in trim. Which would prove to be almost useless in this severe example of a LOC.
 
I will bet you all a crispy Ben Franklin that the calm voice was a facade, trying to pretend for his aircraft owner and occupants, that there was nothing to worry about. Meanwhile, rising panic inside quickly left the pilot essentially “incapacitated” in the way only true panic can.
 
Local news report about the pilot's family:


The pilot was from eastern Arizona, 28 years old. His wife (pregnant and due in "weeks") was on board the plane. They leave behind two young children.
 
iamtheari said:
Local news report about the pilot's family:


The pilot was from eastern Arizona, 28 years old. His wife (pregnant and due in "weeks") was on board the plane. They leave behind two young children.
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Brutal. RIP.
 
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