Tesla Trolling

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by denverpilot, May 20, 2018.

  1. Anymouse

    Anymouse En-Route

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    After I posted originally, I decided to edit it and added the time travel hint. I figured without that no one would know what I was talking about.
     
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  2. Anymouse

    Anymouse En-Route

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    Here's something about the Tesla no one seems to be talking about: Battery life. Just how long will that battery last before it needs to be replaced? And how much will it cost to replace it?

    My current cars is a Saturn Sky that's just about to flip ten years, and Jeep Wrangler that I've had roughly 6 years. Both were bought new. If I buy one of those new fangled el cheapo Tesla models, will I still be using the same battery in ten years?

    On the plus side, I suppose routine maintenance cost will typically be less since there's fewer moving parts.
     
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  3. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    Most of the real world crowd sourced data shows the early Model S that have been driven a lot, are about 8% down from their initial peak charge. I say peak charge because many never made the factory spec for peak charge to start with, according to the raw data.

    They were up to 5% low to start with, which for buyers of any other product would be highly annoying. QC sucks if you can’t hit your rated pack size within 5%, but in this fantasy land of “the product doesn’t even have to be profitable”, little things like the pack not taking a full charge, doesn’t bother anyone.

    It’s all about charge cycles and deep vs light cycles like other lithium technology batteries. They’ll easily make the California 10 year, 150,000 mile warranty that California is pushing on the gas vehicles, but yes, they’ll need replacement eventually.

    Whether Tesla can do a proper replacement and recycling program like Toyota has done, remains to be seen.

    Even the Toyota program is somewhat problematic in that they give a core rebate on the dead packs, and if under warranty still, what equates to a very low pro-rated rebate that doesn’t cover the labor completely nor covers anywhere near the cost of the new pack.

    I suspect Tesla’s program will hype the “recycling” part and downplay the price part, and won’t be as customer friendly as the Toyota program.

    Different battery chemistry in these, of course, but the program generalities are apples to apples. How long before the degradation is considered enough to qualify for warranty, who pays for what if you do have a pack that degrades more rapidly than others, etc.

    Some raw data shows some Tesla Model S vehicles are pushing 20% degraded already. Granted, heavily used ones that also started with degraded batteries to begin with (5% or so), but nevertheless, a big hit. Others hover just above 8% out to 700-800 charge cycles, or about two years of daily full discharge/charge use.

    That’d be roughly 40% degraded by the California 10 year warranty period if the line is linear. It usually isn’t with lithium type packs. It’ll look a little better than that until it falls off a cliff further out.

    Not to mention that most people will limit out on the warranty on mileage rather than years. With the average commuter driving 12,000 miles a year, warranty will be up in 8 years.

    Which matches Tesla’s actual warranty, of 8 years and unlimited miles on the model S. They’ve added mileage limits to the Model 3 depending on which battery option you purchase.
     
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  4. deonb

    deonb Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    That's the Chargepoint app, which only shows availability for their own network. All Superchargers are always shows as "No status". In fact the far majority of the chargers on that app shows as "No status".

    As far as I know the only thing that shows live SuperCharger status is the display in the car itself. Both my Model S and Model 3 Nav systems currently show the Lincoln NE Supercharger as available (below). And if you look at the Plugshare reviews on that charger, it has never been down since it opened.

    upload_2018-5-21_1-11-38.png

    upload_2018-5-21_1-13-36.png
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2018
  5. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    So, to plan a trip accurately, I have to go sit in the car, because that’s the only source of truth for charger availability?
     
  6. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Pre-takeoff checklist

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    One last bit of conversation and I will leave you alone to your activities.

    Opponent, no. Someone who believes strongly that they are correct and go on and on about how right they are without taking the slightest bit of time to look in the mirror, yes. "Collective" and I do not play identity politics do not mix. 80% can only be the identity of a group of Americans as no tribe can claim such high numbers. I guess if you consider American as an identity in the way you are using it then I am guilty of playing identity politics to discuss a fundamental issue that should be of interest to all Americans.

    Not engaging you on Tesla but more on your I've got this all figured out but refuse to consider even the simplest of solutions attitude. You would prefer to attack an idea (not my own as you have pointed out) then consider that, perhaps, we might all consider working together to eliminate the threat to what it is to be American.

    Lastly, I've followed Tesla since 2012 and have yet to miss an earnings call. I form my opinions based on information directly from the company combined with how that information matches up against the reality of their performance. Listening to a "business discussion" may or may not be useful if I were in the need of more information on Tesla. I am not a big investor in the company and thus am ok with the information I have. I guess I'm too busy being on a side if you can call being on the side of being an American a side. Your comment does not read that way but more of a tribal accusation. Keep making it about sides and tribes and nothing will get done. Very American.
     
  7. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    That would be rather stupid of them, especially in rural areas where their chosen carrier (AT&T) has no coverage. I assume in non-rural areas where AT&T isn’t even a carrier that’s available they roam the cars on GSM to whomever is there.

    Noticed some other things too, like the fact that the WiFi in the cars will attach to your house and do vehicle updates via that. For rural users, almost every possible carrier is metered in some way either via bandwidth caps or directly, and their assumption that anyone even wants their car doing software updates through their house is questionable.

    For me, I’d have to know exactly how much data they planned to use and when to make sure caps weren’t busted so I wouldn’t let the car attach to the house, and AT&T is zero coverage inside my garage with the metal doors down. Anywhere between here and the city, about a half hour away, is such poor coverage on any network other than Verizon, that the car had better have VERY good error handling and restart capabilities on downloads and all of its data connected apps, because most smart phone apps even though they give lip service to error handling, crash regularly going up and down the hills and in and out of coverage on iPhones, anyway.

    Very very few software engineers today have any clue whatsoever how to code for network outages that happen every 60 seconds or so on mobile. They live in places where that doesn’t happen.

    Hell, the phone itself can’t even keep up with them, and regularly gets confused and gives up trying to switch bands and modes to find a reasonable signal.

    Verizon is mildly better with at least three solid “drop” points between home and town, including at the end of my driveway where my WiFi peters out, 3G only coverage three miles over the first hill, and a complete black hole where NO carrier signal reaches into near the place where my old friend made his off-airport landing earlier this year. That spot has zero GSM coverage from AT&T, T-Mobile, and zero CDMA style coverage from Sprint, and can only barely hold a 1G network call on Verizon. Then the next drop spot on all of them is a ten mile stretch of rolling hills where the only signal on any of them is while “hilltopping” and it comes and goes every 60 seconds or so. Verizon can barely hold a call through there. Nobody else can.

    And frankly, the phones flat out lie in there. If you run continuous data tests or make an actual phone call you see and hear where the massive holes in coverage are. If you make no calls or use no data, the iPhone will happily lie to you and never once say “No service” except near the airplane site by the riverbed. In that location, Verizon will roam to rural carrier Viaero but all data will be 1XRTT speed or fail completely, and voice will kick you back off of the roaming network at the slightest peep of native Verizon signal being heard by the phone.

    So yeah, another flipping “smart” device to manage and deal with it whining about data coming and going through that area of my commute daily would be intensely annoying. Let alone modern software coders just assuming data works everywhere all of the time and all their screwups can just be fixed every few days with another software push with little to no effort to actually write things correctly the first time.

    In months where Apple or Microsoft push large multi-gig updates to every damn device in the house, the bandwidth costs jump in real dollars here. It also ties up the home bandwidth to the point where nothing else can get done unless you go turn WiFi off on all the bandwidth sucking devices. At least MSFT has their working, but ill-advised sharing tech that allows one machine to share downloads with other machines on the network. If one has proper WiFi client separation turned on, it doesn’t work, of course. All devices have to download their own copy.

    Apple has always done that, other than their god-awful “Server” software that acts as a downloaded file proxy and also screws up the networking of any machine it’s loaded on. Not to mention the thing does absolutely nothing for iPhones.

    Anyway. Mixing all of that lack of bandwidth rural reality with my CAR needing to phone home? No thanks. The last thing I need or want my car doing is downloading crap at home and squashing the bandwidth that’s barely able to handle a single compressed HD quality video stream.

    I’ve seen numerous times where the iPhone cellular chipset is so confused about going in and out of coverage on the way to town, it simply gives up and never finds the network again, even when you pass the spot where LTE coverage is truly useable well into the city and doesn’t drop out anymore. Would be fun to see if the chipset is the culprit or crappy OS coding.

    But definitely don’t want to mess with helping a car that’s confused about it all. It’s bad enough a native cellular phone device can’t figure it out. :)
     
  8. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Denver,

    You write well and you put some thought into your efforts. Just out of curiosity, what have we been doing as a country for the last thirty years and how should we go about changing course to correct if correction is needed?

    I ask because you seem to have a lot of observations and opinions about everything yet lack anything remotely regarding solutions.
     
  9. kayoh190

    kayoh190 En-Route PoA Supporter

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    denverpilot is an IT guy - it’s in their nature to think that everything sucks. :)
     
  10. Tj1376

    Tj1376 Pre-takeoff checklist

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    That’s a pretty handy feature. If only the infrastructure was there to support it. Now I know why my buddy doesn’t use the nav to find chargers. It only slows Tesla chargers and since there are so few he simply can never drive an hour out of his way to sit for an hour for a charge. This is crazy when KC is commonly toted as being one of the most electric car ready cities thanks to KCPL making all chargers free for two ish years.

    Dang. That woulda been awesome to ride up to the game in his X instead of slumming it in my Volt.

    Somebody else said it the best. The electric car just isn’t the car to choose for a road trip. One day I hope that changes, it’s just not the truth today.

    TJ


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  11. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    I have not yet read all 130 posts to this thread. I plan to eventually.

    I am, however, the proud owner of 100 shares of Tesla stock, bought as a gamble on Musk’s vision some time ago. Still up a bit from my average purchase price.

    My hope is that some time in the next few years my shares will be worth enough to buy an electric or plug-in hybrid to replace our aging 2005 Honda Element.

    Or not. But it’s still fun to have “skin in the game”. Not so much an investment, as wild speculation.
     
  12. denverpilot

    denverpilot Taxi to Parking

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    Excellent. Could have saved some time and stopped long ago.

    In this latest post you’ve both said I’m no threat to you or the 80% and simultaneously claimed I’m destroying America. ROFLMAO. Which is it?

    My god. I see it now. America is doomed! Dooked I say.

    (Henning, is that you?)

    I am glad you’re done posting posts that contradict themselves and can’t even follow simple rules of logic, while whining about “no critical thinking skills”.

    Seriously. You do need some work on that.

    If, perhaps you’d like to address anything in the video, or have an adult discussion — minus your repetitive psychobabble about the world coming to an end — we’ll be here.

    I’m pretty sure America will be just fine, if I, or anyone else, questions Elon Musk’s business practices and how he cooks his books.

    By the way, that was some of the funniest brainwashed garbage I’ve read anywhere lately. Truly cringeworthy, but glad you stopped in for some completely irrational thoughts, if only for the minor entertainment value.

    Well, anyway. I’m off to destroy America now. I might need some coffee.

    See ya. Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.
     
  13. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    You are sure you have the solution. Now explain what the problem is.

    To be specific, what is the problem that “a country” has that is the responsibility of “a country” to solve, and while you’re at it, what do you mean by “a country” exactly?
     
  14. Katamarino

    Katamarino Cleared for Takeoff

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    I imagine that there were an awful lot of people like denverpilot and his acolytes writing similarly middle-school level condescending rants in newspapers a century ago about how this ridiculous internal combustion engine would never catch on, and if you wanted to get somewhere, nothing would ever replace a good old horse and wagon.
     
  15. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    The electric car has already been around longer than it took for autos to replace horses, and they still aren’t competitive, but don’t let that stop an awesome rant! And model a buyers didn’t get a big check from the government when they bought one either.
     
  16. Katamarino

    Katamarino Cleared for Takeoff

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    So you're saying that some technologies take longer to perfect and hit the mainstream than others? I'm shocked, shocked I say...
     
  17. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    Especially the ones that aren’t matured enough to be proper replacements.

    But maybe instead of being sarcastic you should stop and realize you just agreed your point was invalid.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2018
  18. RJM62

    RJM62 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    That's my take on it, too. Until recharging is as quick as refilling with dinosaur juice (about five minutes for me), there's no way I'd spend the extra coin on an electric car. I don't care if they have charging stations on every streetcorner.

    That being said, I do think my next car may be a plug-in hybrid. That makes sense to me. As long as I can get about 110 miles on a charge, I'd rarely use the gas engine. I could do all my day-to-day errands on electric. But I could also plan longer trips without having to factor in as much time sitting around en route waiting for the batteries to charge as I'll be spending driving.

    Rich
     
  19. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    My favorite solution looking for a problem that Elon is busy creating is the trip to Mars. Gotta love a guy that can market a plan to escape pollution by flying for years to a planet who’s atmosphere naturally is 1,000 times more polluted than we could ever make ours. He really is a genius.
     
  20. Katamarino

    Katamarino Cleared for Takeoff

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    Hah. No, that isn't what just happened, no matter how much you might like it to be true.

    Electric cars will take over from internal combustion, there's no doubt about it. It won't be overnight, but those who pretend that they won't are sitting alongside the people who claimed confidently that nobody will ever need a computer in their home. I work in an oil major, and fly a PPonked 182, so I'm hardly anti-oil. I am capable, though, of seeing the blindingly obvious.
     
  21. Salty

    Salty En-Route PoA Supporter

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    Ok. But you're using circular logic. You're right, because you know you're right. Yeah, that proves you're right. :rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2018
  22. James331

    James331 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    They said the same thing about flying cars in the 50s too

    Sometimes you just have to refine the wheel vs trying to drive on a new octagon.

    Like I said, diesel is where it's at, between modern materials, transmission and chemistry and aerodynamics that's where it's at.
    I linked to a 200mph 0-60 in 3.7 supercar that gets 60mpg with a 2000mi range, imagine what you could do if you didn't need to demand that performance and the 200mph top end, how about pushing for more bio diesel, heck people eat enough fried junk lol.
     
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  23. bnt83

    bnt83 Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    I like diesel, unfortunately the options in the USA really suck.
     
  24. scorpio

    scorpio Pre-Flight

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    I like the Tesla cars and hope they make it... but I can skeptical. Their technology is nothing special. Their batteries are not well thought of in in the industry. Their cash burn is scary. They have lost many key executives and are in the process of restructuring. Other more stable companies are introducing electric vehicles that are very worthy competition in that space.

    From an investment side I just can't understand the valuation. At the current price it seems to be a best case scenario if everything works out. That may happen, but Tesla has some very real obstacles ahead.

    I just read an article about the $35,000 Tesla which will actually cost between $44,000-$80,000. That's getting pretty spendy for a "base" vehicle.
     
  25. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    I would like to see some numbers showing total life cycle cost to the consumer for a few situations. Comparing cars that compete against each other.
    e.g. The suburbanite who drives 10 miles to work. The guy/gal driving 40 miles to work. The country living who regularly drives 200+ miles.

    I have a friend who has a new Chevy Bolt and a Honda Civic. Both bought this year (wife gets the Civic, he gets the Bolt). He drives about 60 miles each way to work. She drives about 20 miles a day. When they built their spreadsheet to calculate costs the break even point was 40 miles. For them, it was all about money, convenience was secondary. They do a lot of road trips to family just under 150 miles away, and one road trip to the beach about 500 miles away. Family trips will likely be the Bolt, beach is TBD. (He manages a restaurant, she is a waitress; I would say they fit the definition of middle class pretty dam well.)

    I wonder what reality will be...

    Tim
     
  26. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Not to mention that nonsense about putting his car into space. And doing so with other people's money, given what's been said about his business model and lack of profitability so far.
     
  27. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    In regards to the argument that a gas car is better because it can be refilled faster and in more places than an e-car, all I can say is that you need to buy the car that fits your mission. At this time, I would not have a purely e-car. But a friend of mine lives about 50 miles from his workplace in Atlanta and he commutes on I95 every day. Many days it is like a parking lot. His Tesla uses very little electricity when sitting still. He has the option of turning off the radio and air conditioner if he wants, but he doesn't. It takes him seconds to plug into the charger at work, and then again at home it takes seconds to plug into his garage (hangar) charger. He has never had to stop at a gas station and pay for dinosaur juice. His Tesla is a blast to drive around town. It handles and accelerates better than my wife's BMW. If the charging infrastructure ever develops to the point where I don't think I might get stranded some day, I will probably buy one too.

    I just wonder why they don't have something like the Blue Rhino Propane exchange stations. At such a station, you could drive in, a forklift could remove your old battery pack and shove in a new pack. You would never have to worry about the expensive pack going bad. That would be their problem. And once those batteries degrade to the point they are not suited for mobile use any more, they still have plenty of life left as a static power source (say to hook up to a solar charger at home for emergency power). Then eventually, they can be recycled.
     
  28. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The trouble with confidently making such predictions is that although there are successful technologies that were initially pooh-poohed, there are also technologies that someone thought were sure to succeed but didn't pan out. So my reaction to all this is "maybe." :dunno:
     
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  29. FastEddieB

    FastEddieB Final Approach

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    That “nonsense” was one of the coolest things I’ve seen in my adult life. YMMV.
     
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  30. James331

    James331 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The issue isn't with science or the tech or availability of diesel, it's red tape, which with enough pizzed off people is easily cut, or simply remove the elected officials that keep it that way, the other passengers on the gravy train of government will take notice and comply, because we all know not many of them have the chops to survive in the private sector.




    Ever price out a new battery pack?
     
  31. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser!

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    If you say so, but doing "cool" things that don't make money, using other people's money? o_O
     
  32. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    That was a major part of my idea of the exchange stations. But also, the amount you save in gas, oil and regular maintenance will pay for a battery pack over time.

    An e-car battery pack has a great recycle/scavenge value, but it isn't efficient for individuals to do that. A company that runs an exchange station would have a whole bunch of epacks that would make having a profitable secondary recycling business worthwhile.
     
  33. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    I have a Bonanza because it is cooler than driving, or even flying a Cessna.
     
  34. paflyer

    paflyer Final Approach

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    Especially code written by someone else.
     
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  35. James331

    James331 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Plus the MX of swapping a pack, I just don't think this is going to work out like swapping out 20 cans of propane.
     
  36. Pilawt

    Pilawt Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    With an electric tow truck? o_O
     
  37. JOhnH

    JOhnH Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Swapping a pack out today is a major PITA. But I remember when swapping a disk drive was a major PITA too, until they made hot-swappable disks. There is no reason engineers can't develop an easily replaceable battery pack, even if it does take a tow motor to lift it in and out.
     
  38. Katamarino

    Katamarino Cleared for Takeoff

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    Katamarino
    This is true - we'll all have to circle back to this thread in 5 years time and see how things are going! Things like flying cars, though, were a true leap in capability; whereas getting from the situation we're in now to a truly nationwide network of chargers for a fleet of capable vehicles is really only incremental change. We're at a point where it already works great for a lot of people's applications.

    I recently rode in a Model S that my friend has bought, second hand. Still like new, much better price. He does a weekly commute the length of the Netherlands (not the biggest place, I know, but still pretty far). He worked out that over a couple of years, it'll work out way cheaper than an equivalent diesel. It is also amazing to drive!
     
  39. paflyer

    paflyer Final Approach

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    Now scale that up to 250,000,000 personal vehicles that need to "refuel".

    What kind of electrical generation/distribution infrastructure needs to be in place to support that? The current grid? I don't think so...
     
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  40. paflyer

    paflyer Final Approach

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    What are the logistics? How will new/depleted batteries be stored, transported, and paid for?

    Batteries, connectors, mounting, etc., would have to be standardized. Someone has to pay for the tools, equipment, storage. Not a huge problem, but a consideration.