Student Pilot Certs on the decline for a third consecutive year

[Cesarmx]

Per the attached FAA chart (Not from AI), the trend for Student Pilot Certs Issued is going down for a third consecutive year (2023-2025) and this is before the higher Aviation fuel prices era -which started just 3 months ago- in my area of SE Tx of $3-4/gal Vs $6-$8/gal now! For the time being it is not looking good, is not terrible as of yet. We shall see for 2026 numbers….

Once prices go high for anything for any reason, the tendency is to stay high for a long long time; if they ever come back down if at all after the distress and dust settles! My opinion only……….

 

[Doc Holliday]

Fuel was high if not higher in price during 2000 through 2024. Just saying.

 

[frfly172]

It would be interesting to if we could see how many of the new starts are going all the way as a career,as opposed to flying for fun. As a hobby it is getting expensive

 

[Clip4]

People aren’t going to spend money on flying when they are struggling with housing, food, transportation, and healthcare costs.

 

[rhkennerly]

Old economics saying, more a truism: prices go up like a rocket and fall like a feather.

 

[rhkennerly]

Still, it’s an ill wind... Come late fall, keep an eye out for bargains on planes.

 

[Baked Potato]

Prices at my local schools have gone up, and up, and up in the last few years. I stated in the other thread , but two hours in a 172 from the 70s and a CFI is $500.

 

[4CornerFlyer]

Even with a drop from the peak in 2023, the past three years are all more than double the numbers from a decade ago, which is something of an achievement.
Jon

 

[Cesarmx]

Interesting to see that in 2025 , per the FAA, the least approved Certificates were for PPL and Mechanic (Still being modestly approved) and ATPs the highest approved for powered Airplane ( I would expect this one to be the hardest!)

 

[Cesarmx]

Prices at my local schools have gone up, and up, and up in the last few years. I stated in the other thread , but two hours in a 172 from the 70s and a CFI is $500.

We will probably see the negative effect the fewer number of students starts and their impact of new ATPs that otherwise will be produced for the Airlines and Air Taxi Operators in the next 5 years, compounded by the expected 65 years old -retirees ….even after the displaced 2400 or so pilots from Spirit Airlines being absorbed by the other majors many of them likely with thousands of hours under their belts!

 

[Clip4]

Interesting to see that in 2025 , per the FAA, the least approved Certificates were for PPL and Mechanic (Still being modestly approved) and ATPs the highest approved for powered Airplane ( I would expect this one to be the hardest!)

Expect the ATP to be the hardest how? Today the most difficult certificate to earn is the private and most the training for an ATP certificate is paid for by an employer and it is not the most difficult certificate to earn.

 

[hypoxia]

Any statistics on Instrument Airplane ratings??

 

[AlleyCat67]

Seems like a natural supply-demand reaction to the shortage in airline FO positions. Plenty of kids got their 1500 hours some time ago and are still stuck as CFI's waiting for a call up.

 

[write-stuff]

Seems like a natural supply-demand reaction to the shortage in airline FO positions. Plenty of kids got their 1500 hours some time ago and are still stuck as CFI's waiting for a call up.

Yep. A lot of folks really have little interest in general aviation. They were enamored with the uniform and paycheck. For these people, no airline job, no interest in flying.

 

[FormerHangie]

The number of original private tickets issued were very high in years 2023 to 2025, I would expect these number to go back down to what we saw a few years ago, now that the airline pilot bubble has subsided.

I'm looking at the United States Energy Information Agency's product supplied figures for avgas. Demand fell off during Covid, then came back a bit, and haven't changed in the last two years. I don't see any significant declines here, which makes me think that the number of active pilots hasn't changed.

I'm expecting some of those who were trying to get a flying career going will drop out of flying over the next few years, and the number of private and sport pilots will go back to the numbers we saw in the early part of this decade.

 

[dmspilot]

Interesting to see that in 2025 , per the FAA, the least approved Certificates were for PPL and Mechanic (Still being modestly approved) and ATPs the highest approved for powered Airplane ( I would expect this one to be the hardest!)

If that includes ATPs issued under AQP then it's not really a surprise.

 

[Cesarmx]

Similarly new ATP Certs have also shown a decline as well since 2023, setting it back to 2012-2013 levels. Conversely people flying the airlines has increased last decade and the number of taxi operators (Part 135) has also increased, both requiring pilots with ATP Certs……

 

[MauleSkinner]

and the number of taxi operators (Part 135) has also increased, both requiring pilots with ATP Certs……

I’d be curious what percentage of 135 operations require an ATP. And of those that do, what percentage of pilots have it.

 

[Half Fast]

Plenty of kids got their 1500 hours some time ago and are still stuck as CFI's waiting for a call up.

Yep. A lot of folks really have little interest in general aviation. They were enamored with the uniform and paycheck. For these people, no airline job, no interest in flying.

Spot on.

I've said this before, but if we want to grow personal recreational flying, we need to recruit from a different cohort. AOPA and EAA are trying to bring in young people, but that mostly helps the airlines. Let the airlines carry their own water. The primary candidates for recreational flying are people ~50 to ~60 years old, with grown kids and some free time and the resources to indulge in an expensive hobby.

We need to drop Young Eagles and start an Old Buzzards program. Sell the idea of retirement travel, of visiting kids and grandkids, of taking the grandkids on trips, of flying to prime fishing or hunting destinations, going to vacation resorts, etc. Advertise in boating, golfing, and travel pubs. Get some stories and articles onto retiree websites. Place ads and articles in the AARP magazine. Start a flying buddy / mentorship program.

Right now we're fishing in the wrong pond.

 

[pfarber]

People aren’t going to spend money on flying when they are struggling with housing, food, transportation, and healthcare costs.

People have been moaning about these things forever. Its just a talking point. If you're struggling then go make more money. I've had at least 6-10 jobs in my life and just about every one was a step up.

"if you're going through hell, keep going." ~Winston Churchill.

Flying now is crazy expensive for reasons. A 1.5 or 1.9 hour flight can reach $500.

The FAA tried to reduce the cost of learning with MOSIAC (lol what a joke) but for career path pilots it didn't do SQUAT.

 

[Half Fast]

...but for career path pilots it didn't do SQUAT.

I don’t think MOSAIC was ever intended or promoted as a thing to help career path pilots. Let’s let the airlines do the necessary squatting for their own career path pilots.

 

[Cesarmx]

I’d be curious what percentage of 135 operations require an ATP. And of those that do, what percentage of pilots have it.

About 4-5 years ago I applied for an FO position at two Air Taxi operations nearby thinking that a Commercial ticket will be good enough…..both told me that they do require Applicants for captains to have an ATP cert in their pockets with a Type Rating for the airplane to be flown and for FOs a Comm ticket with an ATP written already passed and expecting the FO within six months of work, if hired, to acquire an ATP…….so I presume, even if the FARs may not require an ATP for 135 Ops, but because of Insurance and Company polices some may.
Because of COVID slowdown, it never materialized.

 

[jordane93]

I’d be curious what percentage of 135 operations require an ATP. And of those that do, what percentage of pilots have it.

I’d imagine most do now since they can be more selective. Buddy of mine is having a difficult time finding any work besides contracting. He’s applied everywhere 135/91/121. He’s at ATP mins, written complete, CTP complete, 3 PIC types, 1 SIC type.

 

[hindsight2020]

People have been moaning about these things forever. Its just a talking point. If you're struggling then go make more money.

just a talking point eh...says the guy who won't shut up about piston mechanics not able to command the wage they're supposedly worth. The level of blind spot on display here would qualify for emergency cataract surgery.

As I've said, pilot class solidarity is a myth.

 

[Clip4]

People have been moaning about these things forever. Its just a talking point. If you're struggling then go make more money. I've had at least 6-10 jobs in my life and just about every one was a step up.

"if you're going through hell, keep going." ~Winston Churchill.

Flying now is crazy expensive for reasons. A 1.5 or 1.9 hour flight can reach $500.

The FAA tried to reduce the cost of learning with MOSIAC (lol what a joke) but for career path pilots it didn't do SQUAT.

I really enjoy it when people give their life history and believe it applies to younger generations today. After adjusting for inflation, a private pilot certificate is 2x more expensive today than you likely paid.

 

[bonefishpete]

I think Spirit will teach Airlines that you can't sell seats cheaper than the cost of providing them and remain in business. I feel some people simply won't be able to fly. Sounds harsh but it is what it is.

 

[schmookeeg]

I think Spirit will teach Airlines that you can't sell seats cheaper than the cost of providing them and remain in business. I feel some people simply won't be able to fly. Sounds harsh but it is what it is.

...You think the walmart nation is going back to greyhound after having a taste of Spirit?

 

[bonefishpete]

...You think the walmart nation is going back to greyhound after having a taste of Spirit?

Yes unless subsidize by federal government. That's why JetBlue merger was shot down. It would of raised cost of plane tickets.

 

[Tarheelpilot]

Good. Most of those reductions are likely career starts. I’m tired of listening to people whine about not having an airline job when they get RATP min time.

Too many people bought into the pilot shortage trope.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Yes unless subsidize by federal government. That's why JetBlue merger was shot down. It would of raised cost of plane tickets.

 

[MauleSkinner]

I’d imagine most do now since they can be more selective. Buddy of mine is having a difficult time finding any work besides contracting. He’s applied everywhere 135/91/121. He’s at ATP mins, written complete, CTP complete, 3 PIC types, 1 SIC type.

To be honest, I’d be pretty wary of someone at ATP mins with 3 PIC types.

 

[jordane93]

To be honest, I’d be pretty wary of someone at ATP mins with 3 PIC types.

He’s really good at networking and got his first jet job flying a sabre part 91 at like 500 hours. But he’s had like 5 jobs in the past 5 years. Some due to the owner selling the plane and others just not a good fit. That’s probably hurting his chances too. Regionals have been super picky too. He’s even had a former chief pilot of the regional he was applying to write a letter of recommendation and still got turned down

 

[MauleSkinner]

He’s really good at networking and got his first jet job flying a sabre part 91 at like 500 hours. But he’s had like 5 jobs in the past 5 years. Some due to the owner selling the plane and others just not a good fit. That’s probably hurting his chances too.

Yeah, that’d be some huge red flags if I was in a hiring department.

Fortunately for everyone, I’m not.

 

[Tarheelpilot]

...You think the walmart nation is going back to greyhound after having a taste of Spirit?

They still have frontier.

 

[Cesarmx]

There my be a correlation between student Pilot cert issued for a year and ATP cert issued -up or down- (a couple of years later after the 1500 hrs are met)

 

[40YearDream]

Spot on.

I've said this before, but if we want to grow personal recreational flying, we need to recruit from a different cohort. AOPA and EAA are trying to bring in young people, but that mostly helps the airlines. Let the airlines carry their own water. The primary candidates for recreational flying are people ~50 to ~60 years old, with grown kids and some free time and the resources to indulge in an expensive hobby.

We need to drop Young Eagles and start an Old Buzzards program. Sell the idea of retirement travel, of visiting kids and grandkids, of taking the grandkids on trips, of flying to prime fishing or hunting destinations, going to vacation resorts, etc. Advertise in boating, golfing, and travel pubs. Get some stories and articles onto retiree websites. Place ads and articles in the AARP magazine. Start a flying buddy / mentorship program.

Right now we're fishing in the wrong pond.

I believe this is an excellent thought.
The EAA has a program kinda like this, called “Flying Start” - but I don’t think it is has been aimed at, or advertised to, the groups pointed out.
(Another group to possibly advertise to are the high-end R/C pilots: the guys flying the $5k and up r/c jets - they’ve obviously got some money to spend!)

 

[NoHeat]

Interesting to see that in 2025 , per the FAA, the least approved Certificates were for PPL and Mechanic (Still being modestly approved) and ATPs the highest approved for powered Airplane ( I would expect this one to be the hardest!)

Thanks for posting these tables. What impresses me the most is the number of Recreational certificates issued: just two of them in a whole year.

It must cost something to keep updating and publishing stuff for each kind of certificate, so why is that one even offered?

 

[Cesarmx]

Thanks for posting these tables. What impresses me the most is the number of Recreational certificates issued: just two of them in a whole year.

It must cost something to keep updating and publishing stuff for each kind of certificate, so why is that one even offered?

Agree, a good question you have, I don’t see the reason either to keep up with recreational cert stats for such a low public interest.
We will see in 2027 the stats for 2026 for all certificates after much higher Av gas prices, high inflation, New Mosaic Rules, Spirit Airlines out of business etc………We also shall see what the other majors do as well, or their reactions to the above for mergers, consolidation, reductions in their number of flights, public demand for flying, new pilot hiring etc

 

[Bell206]

It must cost something to keep updating and publishing stuff for each kind of certificate, so why is that one even offered?

So long as any certificate or other official documents like the CARs are active within the regulatory system they get reported and their database maintained.

 

[MauleSkinner]

So long as any certificate or other official documents like the CARs are active within the regulatory system they get reported and their database maintained.

I can’t think of a certificate or rating other than Link Instructor that’s ever been removed by the FAA.