Student Pilot Certs on the decline for a third consecutive year

hypoxia said:
Any statistics on Instrument Airplane ratings??
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Jason Blair is a good source for aggregation and analysis of FAA info
 

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bonefishpete said:
I think Spirit will teach Airlines that you can't sell seats cheaper than the cost of providing them and remain in business. I feel some people simply won't be able to fly. Sounds harsh but it is what it is.
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What the mainlines are already doing is providing that low cost option, while at the same time selling more premium experiences. Basic economy tickets that compete with the LCC's with no seat choice, charge for checked bags, board last, no FF miles etc. Pay a bit more and some of those drop away. Pay a lot more and you're in the front of plane getting served a drink before the plane takes off. All of this on the same plane. The low cost passengers ensure the plane is always full and the incremental cost of that passenger is close to zero. With the data feeding their pricing tools, it's pretty easy to optimize the passenger/price mix based on day, OD pairs, season etc.
The LCC's don't have any of those levers.
 
bonefishpete said:
Yes unless subsidize by federal government. That's why JetBlue merger was shot down. It would have raised cost of plane tickets.
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I think JetBlue quietly shot it down because the further into Spirit financials they got, the more they realized it would bankrupt them as well.
 
Half Fast said:
Let’s let the airlines do the necessary squatting for their own career path pilots.
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But that's going to require a ton of legislative changes due to the retarded certification path.

Commercial ticket is 100% useless. Performing WWI fighter maneuvers and a completely unrealistic '180deg power off' is also more luck than skill. Commercial should be nothing more than a written test like IA. If you get PPL and IFR you can fly a plane.

CFI is a joke. Its basically a 'pay your dues' process to get 1500 hours because there are nowhere near enough paying jobs for newly minted 'commercial' pilots to get a job actually flying for hours. Doing 1000's of laps in the pattern in a 152/172/Piper is sure fire way to learn to fly turbines. lol sure. Also CFIs are basically beasts of burden to flight schools. School charges $90/hr for CFI and then pays the CFI how much?

I do think that a new certificate for 'turbine only' career paths are required. But the airlines are never gonna pay for it. Why on earth would they want the liability of paying for students who can wash out? Rental on a Vision jet is ~$3000/hr. So even an 'ATP light' of 750 hours is still $2,250,000 plus CFI. Even if you pare it down to IFR min hours (250-ish) is still $750,000. Heck thats doctor or Vetinarian level student loan territory.
 
Half Fast said:
Spot on.

We need to drop Young Eagles and start an Old Buzzards program. Sell the idea of retirement travel, of visiting kids and grandkids, of taking the grandkids on trips, of flying to prime fishing or hunting destinations, going to vacation resorts, etc. Advertise in boating, golfing, and travel pubs. Get some stories and articles onto retiree websites. Place ads and articles in the AARP magazine. Start a flying buddy / mentorship program.

Right now we're fishing in the wrong pond.
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EAA has an Old Eagles program. I’ve flown a few of the dad’s of Young Eagles and at least one is seriously considering becoming a pilot. We’ve also flown a few grandpas but they aren’t likely candidates for becoming pilots.
 
Drop the ATP requirement for FO to fly. Put 300-400 hour FO pilots back in the Regional Airlines.

One regional airliner crash doesn’t warrant those new ATP rules.
 
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MauleSkinner said:
When was the ATP requirement 250 hours?
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I screwed up meant to say
bonefishpete said:
Drop the ATP requirement back to 250 hours like it used to be. Put 300-400 hour FO pilots back in the Regional Airlines.

One regional airliner crash doesn’t warrant those new ATP rules.
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I misread sorry. I meant to say drop the requirement for ATP for First Officers.
 
bonefishpete said:
I screwed up meant to say

I misread sorry. I meant to say drop the requirement for ATP for First Officers.
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Unless you’re also suggesting that we go back to 1900s and Metros for regional operations, I disagree.

Not that I think Congress answered the right questions, but I think they accidentally came up with a (mostly) right answer.
 
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MauleSkinner said:
Unless you’re also suggesting that we go back to 1900s and Metros for regional operations, I disagree.

Not that I think Congress answered the right questions, but I think they accidentally came up with a (mostly) right answer.
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There was only a 1500 hour ATP then. The special low hour ATP was an FAA solution to a congressional rule made without any reality, wasn't it?
 
bonefishpete said:
Drop the ATP requirement for FO to fly. Put 300-400 hour FO pilots back in the Regional Airlines.

One regional airliner crash doesn’t warrant those new ATP rules.
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And both of the pilots in said crash were ATP, or at least had the hours to be. Pilot hours had zero to do with the Colgan crash. ALPA just seized the moment of the first fatal crash in years to push an agenda.
 
Most kids do not see flying as “cool”. If there isn’t a phone in their face, they do not want anything to do with it.
 
pfarber said:
a completely unrealistic '180deg power off' is also more luck than skill.
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100% skill in energy management. But if you don't know or are scared of slips, yeah then it's going to look more like luck with the dependency of wind, correct flaps, airspeed, etc. Advanced beginner is a continuous slipping turn from the point of engine loss to the numbers. Also called flying a Pitts.
 
Aviatorbrew said:
Most kids do not see flying as “cool”. If there isn’t a phone in their face, they do not want anything to do with it.
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While that may be part of it, the reality is that flying is utterly unaffordable for the vast majority of people, young or old. Hell, it's expensive for those of us who are already "in" and aren't having to pay instructors, testing fees, materials, etc. Plus, most of the fleet is 30+ years old (in most cases, 40+), many of the people you encounter at airports are either not terribly welcoming or outright hostile to younger people (in part because of the belief by less-young folks that "kids these days" don't want anything not on their phone, etc.), and it's not getting any better. On top of all that, a lot of GA facilities at various airports are pretty shabby. Lots of us that are already pilots are just used to it, but for a newcomer, when you roll up to an FBO or flight school with ugly, poorly maintained facilities straight out of the 1980s, it isn't a strong draw.

While the ability to use GA for personal travel is amazing, and opens a lot of doors, that's only appealing if you actually have the $$ to use it. Unless you're a highly paid professional, anything other than maybe a once-a-year trip or the $100 hamburger is hard to swallow. Granted, I'm knowingly and voluntarily flying a thirsty airplane, but a 3 hour trip each way to the beech a few weekends ago cost me almost $2k in gas alone. For an average $2-300/hr rental airplane, costs for that trip would still be similar. Your average person just can't afford that.

GA is in fact on the decline without a lot of hope for a reversal. It's not going to go away entirely, but to expect GA to grow at this point (particularly given current economic realities) is pretty foolish.
 
Steamflyer said:
100% skill in energy management. But if you don't know or are scared of slips, yeah then it's going to look more like luck with the dependency of wind, correct flaps, airspeed, etc. Advanced beginner is a continuous slipping turn from the point of engine loss to the numbers. Also called flying a Pitts.
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You can do all the right things(tm) and still not land withing the designated zone. Why not add a full court free throw in the mix? You need to judge wind, trajectory and all the other things.

If you have PPL, PASSED IFR and can fly in zero visibility and land with 200ft minimums but you can't fly for money unless you know WWI fighter maneuvers and can land on a hypothetical 'zone' for reasons... NOW you can get paid.

How many A320s or 787s are doing lazy 8's?

Only CFI's are required to have a modicum of spin training... and you don't need CFI to get to the airlines. So whats more important? Spin recovery or slips to land in a mythical zone.

The FAA pilot training is joke. The written still uses paper maps yet the gov't stopped printing them years ago. EFB termonology and useage should replace, or at least be included in the written tests for all certificates.

An IA can sign off an annual and that's just an add on test. No practical to show you can do any of the required tasks.
 
bradg33 said:
While that may be part of it, the reality is that flying is utterly unaffordable for the vast majority of people, young or old. Hell, it's expensive for those of us who are already "in" and aren't having to pay instructors, testing fees, materials, etc. Plus, most of the fleet is 30+ years old (in most cases, 40+), many of the people you encounter at airports are either not terribly welcoming or outright hostile to younger people (in part because of the belief by less-young folks that "kids these days" don't want anything not on their phone, etc.), and it's not getting any better. On top of all that, a lot of GA facilities at various airports are pretty shabby. Lots of us that are already pilots are just used to it, but for a newcomer, when you roll up to an FBO or flight school with ugly, poorly maintained facilities straight out of the 1980s, it isn't a strong draw.

While the ability to use GA for personal travel is amazing, and opens a lot of doors, that's only appealing if you actually have the $$ to use it. Unless you're a highly paid professional, anything other than maybe a once-a-year trip or the $100 hamburger is hard to swallow. Granted, I'm knowingly and voluntarily flying a thirsty airplane, but a 3 hour trip each way to the beech a few weekends ago cost me almost $2k in gas alone. For an average $2-300/hr rental airplane, costs for that trip would still be similar. Your average person just can't afford that.

GA is in fact on the decline without a lot of hope for a reversal. It's not going to go away entirely, but to expect GA to grow at this point (particularly given current economic realities) is pretty foolish.
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I agree with 90%

The missing piece is that E/AB can solve a LOT of the money problems. Building does take time but you know the old adage, time, money, speed: pick two.

Car motors are the answer to high aircraft costs. You have to admit the airframe is a small % of the total value. Engine and avionics usually set the price.

For career track pilots E/AB may not be an option but two place VFR LSA with car motors should be doable for less than $50k as kit.
 
MauleSkinner said:
I agree, they need to change that.
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It use to be an actual skills test to see if the applicant could perform the functions of the IA. But people cried it was "unfair" and too subjective. But we also didn't have the signature sellers that are totally clueless on actual IA responsibilities that we now have.
 
It used to be a min 250 hours TT and CPL-ME for an airline jet job. Then ATP 1500 hours….. when pilot pool ran low, restricted ATP. In Europe the 250 hours min remains…. I was in line at customs in Dublin speaking with a new Air lingis (Ireland’s flag carrier) FO doing IOE with 250 TT. He got a lot of sim time, over 100 hours. He can only fly within EU (ICAO requires ATP internationally) . This will likely be next methodology if pool again dries up.

I have flown for both domestic, and international carriers as expat, passenger and cargo. Foreign carriers have different methods to develop pilots, some more legit than others. When these pilot pools dry up many nations don’t have a GA pool to draw from and hire high time expats to fill gaps and even long term… we don’t need expats here in us due to our ga pool historically but mins change.
 
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